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6 hours ago, cs233 said:

Realtrack seems to be doing well with the 156 in various running numbers in the same livery. Not sure on the logic a new coupler to attract multiple working and then nothing of the same era to run it with?!

 

All artwork can be used again simply change the numbers.

 

I'm not saying various running numbers in same livery don't sell (in fact it is long past time Bachmann and Hornby move to what their competitors are doing and offering a choice of numbers with each release). 

 

But it needs to be done either at the same time, or spaced out at least 2 years between releases.  History has amply demonstrated to anyone paying attention that quick second releases do not sell, and the manufacturer and retailers end up attempting to sell off excess inventory with significant discounts (which while certainly some consumers like, isn't good for the manufacturer).

 

The new coupler issue is also a non-issue - 80%+ of the market aren't going to use it as they have no interest in running multiple units together.  For those who do want to use it, it was always going to be a 3 to 5 year project to get sufficient numbers of new models out there with the new coupler (unless the modeller is willing to ignore the number issue, or change the numbers themselves).

 

 

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16 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

I'm not saying various running numbers in same livery don't sell (in fact it is long past time Bachmann and Hornby move to what their competitors are doing and offering a choice of numbers with each release). 

 

But it needs to be done either at the same time, or spaced out at least 2 years between releases.  History has amply demonstrated to anyone paying attention that quick second releases do not sell, and the manufacturer and retailers end up attempting to sell off excess inventory with significant discounts (which while certainly some consumers like, isn't good for the manufacturer).

 

The new coupler issue is also a non-issue - 80%+ of the market aren't going to use it as they have no interest in running multiple units together.  For those who do want to use it, it was always going to be a 3 to 5 year project to get sufficient numbers of new models out there with the new coupler (unless the modeller is willing to ignore the number issue, or change the numbers themselves).

 

 

 

Not sure I can concur with the coupler being a non-issue, it does provide a feature that is often not as seamless as it should be especially with units. As an example of the Realtrack 156 release, after purchasing one of the Provincial variants and being very happy with the unit I have since purchased two other running numbers so in total three DMU's in the same livery. Can you quote this history in which releases one after the other have not sold? Just interested, when it comes to high quality models people will always find the money.

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When's the announcement?

 

A day or two before the catalogue drops through the door normally*. Guessing the weekend after New Years week.

 

 

*Unless it's like one year and the distributors sent them out early and we all kept quiet....

 

 

Jason

Edited by Steamport Southport
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10 hours ago, cs233 said:

Not sure I can concur with the coupler being a non-issue, it does provide a feature that is often not as seamless as it should be especially with units.

 

We here on RMweb are a small minority of the model train buying population - the vast majority of the market doesn't care about having a prototypical coupler, or worry about having 2 units with the same numbers (and that is on assumption that they buy more than one in the first place).

 

Quote

As an example of the Realtrack 156 release, after purchasing one of the Provincial variants and being very happy with the unit I have since purchased two other running numbers so in total three DMU's in the same livery.

 

I'm certainly happy you like the product, and that you are being (I assume) being disciplined and buying only stuff that suits the era/location of whatever you are modelling.

 

Most in this hobby aren't like that and tend to be more impulse purchases of whatever catches their eye.  A second example of a model a year later usually doesn't fall into that impulse type purchase.

 

Quote

Can you quote this history in which releases one after the other have not sold?

 

Rapido Trains have directly mentioned, I believe on several occasions.  There are also many comments here on RMweb about the clearance sales on rushed second runs in the following year that don't allow time for the demand to build up.

 

Quote

Just interested, when it comes to high quality models people will always find the money.

 

Thing to consider is that in the UK market there are between 20 and 30 new tooled items each year, and many more additional runs.  That is a lot of competition for the consumer's £s, and a model that just gets released (and to which some retailers may still have stock on hand 12 months later) isn't of prime interest to buyers.  Most that are interested in model A will have bought model A, and so are looking for something different.

 

2 or 3 years later, and demand returns enough for a second run as people's interest changes, or that other urgent must buy item(s) have been bought so the budget is replenished, etc.

 

[edit to add]

 

More crucially, a lot of the orders for the new announcements are likely made within 2 to 4 weeks of the announcement.  The first batch of 158's aren't scheduled to arrive until February, so if Bachmann announce in January (or even February) the first batch won't have arrived yet, and so there will be no demand for a second run when the first run hasn't even arrived yet.

Edited by mdvle
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An new APT from Bachmann with same detail as seen on the midland Pullman would be gorgeous and a dream of mine.

Unfortunately for me this a dream and Bachmann will more than likely not do this in their current climate.

I can still dream!

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On 06/12/2019 at 00:03, mdvle said:

 

But it needs to be done either at the same time, or spaced out at least 2 years between releases.  History has amply demonstrated to anyone paying attention that quick second releases do not sell, and the manufacturer and retailers end up attempting to sell off excess inventory with significant discounts (which while certainly some consumers like, isn't good for the manufacturer).

The obverse of this is that, if the initial release is not followed up rapidly and sells out because the manufacturer underestimated demand when they signed off on the production run (and if you think you can predict the future any better than they can, maybe you should be a manufacturer), the result is that 'Bay prices head north under the irrepressible impetus of supply and demand.  This is what happened to the Hornby Peckett W class.

 

Bachmann's long lead times for new prototypes mean that a reservoir of demand builds up, and hence it is more likely that the initial release sells out quickly.  This might sound like a good thing for the manufacturer, but it isn't; the company's image, already maligned by the excess lead time, is further tarnished and frustration builds customer resentment.  In the meantime, the backers and shareholders will be holding the company to account for failing to produce enough product to maximise sales ('you could have sold xxxx more of these...').  It also opens a window for the competition if they can be quick enough off the mark.

 

Discounts are something I have taken advantage of with my Hornby 42xx, and the RRP went up by £30 almost as soon as I'd bought my discounted one, so I felt very clever, but in the long term I would be concerned for the future of manufacturers whose products were constantly discounted.  We need a healthy trade to feed the hobby unless we have the skills, facilities, and inclination to build everything ourselves from scratch.  The healthy option is to supply the market sufficiently with product at the RRP, so there are no discounts to clear shelves and no gazumpers on 'Bay either, but the Chinese batch production method does not facilitate this!

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On ‎06‎/‎12‎/‎2019 at 00:03, mdvle said:

...History has amply demonstrated to anyone paying attention that quick second releases do not sell, and the manufacturer and retailers end up attempting to sell off excess inventory with significant discounts (which while certainly some consumers like, isn't good for the manufacturer)...

I strongly suspect both manufacturers and retailers are paying very close attention to their business results. If they continue with quick second releases despite 'the history', that suggests that the overall outcome is still satisfactory from their perspective, no?

 

I can see a business model of sell initially at premium price for the 'must have the latest' brigade, discounts, possibly in stages subsequently for the 'prepared to wait for a keener price' types. It's even institutionalised in the manufacturer's trading terms...

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8 hours ago, The Johnster said:

The obverse of this is that, if the initial release is not followed up rapidly and sells out because the manufacturer underestimated demand when they signed off on the production run (and if you think you can predict the future any better than they can, maybe you should be a manufacturer), the result is that 'Bay prices head north under the irrepressible impetus of supply and demand.  This is what happened to the Hornby Peckett W class.

 

eBay is not a valid indicator of demand - all eBay (or any auction) demonstrates is that there are at least 2 people willing to pay silly prices to get an item.  On the other hand, a second run where there is only demand for 2 units (or even 10, or a 100) would be a disaster for the manufacturer.  All are possible if using an auction site, or even a handful of posts complaining on an online forum, to judge demand.

 

Yes, there are always exceptions, and there are enough other problems currently at Hornby that could offer reasons for the failure to meet demand, but that is not a normal occurrence.

 

8 hours ago, The Johnster said:

 

Bachmann's long lead times for new prototypes mean that a reservoir of demand builds up, and hence it is more likely that the initial release sells out quickly.

 

Not necessarily true - we certainly see many comments on here from people whose interests have moved on in the intervening years so they are no longer interested in the model.

 

Beside, to use your 94xx as an example, it is currently scheduled to arrive September next year, which means Bachmann won't have to place the order with quantities until about now, so they will be able to adjust for interest and other changes (market competition, etc) since the initial announcement.  Or, to put it another way, they aren't stuck with a quantity decided x many years ago.

 

Or another example, the Class 90.  Announced July 7th 2014, finally arrived May this year.  Yet 7 months later 2 of the 3 models are still in stock at Bachmann, and the third model is still available at least some retailers.  Thus no eBay madness despite the delays coming to market, and certainly not a "initial release sells out quickly".

 

8 hours ago, The Johnster said:

This might sound like a good thing for the manufacturer, but it isn't; the company's image, already maligned by the excess lead time, is further tarnished and frustration builds customer resentment.  In the meantime, the backers and shareholders will be holding the company to account for failing to produce enough product to maximise sales ('you could have sold xxxx more of these...').  It also opens a window for the competition if they can be quick enough off the mark.

 

Hence the importance of pre-orders, both to help ensure you get what you want, and to help the company judge how much to produce.

 

As for backers/shareholders, with few exceptions there are no negatives to failing to produce enough product but serious repercussions for overproducing, so they won't care.

 

Few competition are going to roll the dice on spending around £80k or more on tooling simply because someone failed to meet demand, particularly given that even if you have already have spent the money on research and CAD you are looking at 18 months to get through tooling and samples and production.  And even Bachmann, in such a case, could simply bump something else in the production queue to get another run out much quicker - Bachamnn's problems have been with tooling, they have still gotten product to market over this last 5+ years of problems.

 

8 hours ago, The Johnster said:

The healthy option is to supply the market sufficiently with product at the RRP, so there are no discounts to clear shelves and no gazumpers on 'Bay either, but the Chinese batch production method does not facilitate this!

 

It has nothing to do with China, models have always been made in batches and to that end the only time issue that China introduces is the time to ship the product (on the assumption you don't want to pay to fly them in).

 

The issue is that we get so much product today (20 to 30 new tooled items a year at the moment, plus at least double if not triple that in re-runs) that nobody can carry much inventory (because no only have you paid the factory for that stuff sitting on warehouse shelves, but the warehouse is a significant investment given property prices these days so you want it as small as possible).

 

 

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28 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

eBay is not a valid indicator of demand - all eBay (or any auction) demonstrates is that there are at least 2 people willing to pay silly prices to get an item.  

 

 

If that's not the definition of demand then I don't know what is. When professional antique and art dealers use it to gauge demand and prices then it's a very good guide. Looking at one auction is pointless. But people who know what they are looking for are watching dozens daily.

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

 

It has nothing to do with China, models have always been made in batches 

 

 

Always? They used to churn them out in their hundreds of thousands on a daily basis. There was no such thing as "batches". Have you seen how big the factories were when in the UK? Huge, employing thousands of workers. They were giant assembly lines making models. And anyone who has ever been in a factory knows you don't stop the lines. They go on all day and usually night.

 

Tuesday afternoon at Hornby or Mainline HQ.

 

"Right we've just got XYZ amount of orders for item ABC from Littlewoods"

"Okay. If there isn't enough in stock then we'll make a few thousand tomorrow"

 

Different era though. Just pointing out that batches didn't exist pre-China.

 

 

Jason

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4 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

If that's not the definition of demand then I don't know what is. When professional antique and art dealers use it to gauge demand and prices then it's a very good guide. Looking at one auction is pointless. But people who know what they are looking for are watching dozens daily.

 

The comparison of a product, that has a minimum production run of say 2,000 items, with a rare-no-longer-being-made-item-or-only-one-ever-made, really isn't applicable.

 

I mean, if that Rembrandt painting goes up in price its not like the art dealer can call up a supplier and order another run of an original Rembrandts.

 

Which returns to my point, eBay prices don't tell you a full story.  All they tell you is that for each item listed there are at least 2 people willing to pay well above the RRP for an item and thus enter a bidding war.  But it doesn't mean that there are 2,000 people willing to buy the item, which is what you would have to order and hence sell to get a production run from your factory in China.

 

4 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

Always? They used to churn them out in their hundreds of thousands on a daily basis. There was no such thing as "batches". Have you seen how big the factories were when in the UK? Huge, employing thousands of workers. They were giant assembly lines making models. And anyone who has ever been in a factory knows you don't stop the lines. They go on all day and usually night.

 

So at some point in the late 80s Hornby introduced a model of the Class 142, do you really expect me to believe that Hornby churned out hundreds of thousands of Class 142 models on a daily basis until they shifted production to China?

 

4 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

Tuesday afternoon at Hornby or Mainline HQ.

 

"Right we've just got XYZ amount of orders for item ABC from Littlewoods"

"Okay. If there isn't enough in stock then we'll make a few thousand tomorrow"

 

Ah, so they were made in batches after all (because if they were making it everyday, there would be no point to the comment "we'll make a few thousand tomorrow").

 

4 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

Different era though. Just pointing out that batches didn't exist pre-China.

 

And so now we are back to denying what you just claimed in the previous paragraph.

 

So, again, they have always been made in batches.  That same factory that made the Class 142 for some period of time would then shift to making an APT, and then the next item in the production queue.  In other words, exactly what the factories in China do today.

 

The only difference, for a variety of reasons, is that Hornby/etc. generally kept a large amount of inventory on hand so the odds of them running out of stock may have been quite low (or, it may be that we tend to forget that a specific item was unavailable for some periods of time).  But when you (as in the entire market) are now offering 100+ items a year you simply have to move to smaller production runs and little inventory or you get caught out when the following years 100+ items start arriving.

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I agree that models have always been made in batches.  I think the change is that whereas in the past Hornby may have produced a dozen different batches of the same model with running number 123 over a period of several year, now they will only order one batch with that running number.  The next batch of the same model will have a new catalogue number with a different running number, crest or livery style.  This change has been driven by those who don't really want to buy two models with number 123 and renumber one of them.

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I am not disputing what Mr Mdvie is saying, just pointing out that there is another side to the argument. The Chinese production model (of models) is very different to the way we used to make 'em here back in the day.  Triang, Hornby Dublo, and later Lima produced the same items continually over many years in mazak die casts or plastic moulds, as did Airfix and Mainline when they arrived on the scene.  They were cast or moulded in batches of course, because that's how you cast or mould things, but one batch followed another directly with only a brief period to clean the casting blocks or plastic moulds.  The models were alway in current production and always available in the shops, which stocked more for xmas and the post xmas period when additional track and rolling stock flew off the shelves.  You can't do this in the modern world at a competitive price, as the warehousing and shelf blocking costs are much too high.

 

They proved eventually to be higher than the cost of shipping batches of models from China, and while shipping costs and Chinese labour are getting more expensive, this is still true.  The big difference is so big I'm going to write it in upper case, COMPUTERS.  These enable production to be more precisely matched to demand and 'just in time' distribution methods employed, an efficient and cost effective method which ensures that there are no spare models to sit on shelves for decades like they did in some shops and probably warehouses back in the 60s and 70s.  It enables batch runs of production, which in turn enable the very large catalogues with ranges beyond the dreams (or the stock manager's nightmares) of 'traditional' production.  The Chinese are very good at this, but it is a high pressure environment where errors, not necessarily under the manufacturers' control, can have serious consequences.  It also accounts for the increasing problems we experience in obtaining spares; components are manufactured at the exact time and in the exact numbers required for a 'run', with none left over.

 

The Chinese do not make models in a factory like we used to.  They subcontract to a large number of 'cottage industry' suppliers of components, then collect the output from all over a very big country to an assembly plant, where it is all put together and packaged for shipping.  The firm here simply sends a CAD specification for each component and orders xxxx of to be delivered on a date, having done the R & D work.  Once the batch is complete and in the container, it's on to a different model.  

 

The up side of this is a very large range of highly detailed, competitively priced (yes, even now) models which run well and reliably.  The downside is that, whatever it says in the catalogue, you can never rely on them being in the shops or available to order for immediate dispatch (Hornby at least try to give you some idea if the thing is in stock or can be pre-ordered).  It's not just models; go to buy electrical goods, or furniture, or a tv from a large 'warehouse' and you can see the item on display and the nice salesman will demonstrate it's features, discuss finance and delivery options, and try to sell you a worthless extended warranty on commission.  Then he'll order it from a centralised distribution depot because, although you thought you were in a warehouse retail outlet and everything was stored out the back in a big shed, in fact you were in a big shop window, a display area.  

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In the past the manufacturers relied on selling a small range of models to a large number of customers, now they sell a large range to a small number of customers (relatively speaking). Yes, in the past models may have been made in batches, but a new batch would be made when stock ran low, so models were always available. Quantities were very much larger than now—remember how long some Hornby-Dublo models were available after the demise of that company? Models were available for many years—the HD 0-6-2 Tank loco from 1938 until the 1960s, with the exception of the war years.

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On 07/12/2019 at 06:51, MrJack47790 said:

An new APT from Bachmann with same detail as seen on the midland Pullman would be gorgeous and a dream of mine.

Unfortunately for me this a dream and Bachmann will more than likely not do this in their current climate.

I can still dream!

 

Like it .Same with Prototype HST...DREAM ON. 

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15 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

The comparison of a product, that has a minimum production run of say 2,000 items, with a rare-no-longer-being-made-item-or-only-one-ever-made, really isn't applicable.

 

I mean, if that Rembrandt painting goes up in price its not like the art dealer can call up a supplier and order another run of an original Rembrandts.

 

Which returns to my point, eBay prices don't tell you a full story.  All they tell you is that for each item listed there are at least 2 people willing to pay well above the RRP for an item and thus enter a bidding war.  But it doesn't mean that there are 2,000 people willing to buy the item, which is what you would have to order and hence sell to get a production run from your factory in China.

 

 

So at some point in the late 80s Hornby introduced a model of the Class 142, do you really expect me to believe that Hornby churned out hundreds of thousands of Class 142 models on a daily basis until they shifted production to China?

 

 

Ah, so they were made in batches after all (because if they were making it everyday, there would be no point to the comment "we'll make a few thousand tomorrow").

 

 

And so now we are back to denying what you just claimed in the previous paragraph.

 

So, again, they have always been made in batches.  That same factory that made the Class 142 for some period of time would then shift to making an APT, and then the next item in the production queue.  In other words, exactly what the factories in China do today.

 

The only difference, for a variety of reasons, is that Hornby/etc. generally kept a large amount of inventory on hand so the odds of them running out of stock may have been quite low (or, it may be that we tend to forget that a specific item was unavailable for some periods of time).  But when you (as in the entire market) are now offering 100+ items a year you simply have to move to smaller production runs and little inventory or you get caught out when the following years 100+ items start arriving.

 

 

I don't think you understand what we mean by batches. Hornby will make say 2000 of R3429. That's it. No more as there is no more slots. They might make some more eventually.

 

When they were at Binns Road or Margate. They could run off another 2000 of whatever model the next day.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batch_production

 

I never stated they churned out hundreds of thousands of a specific item daily. Just 100,000s of models. Could be Flying Scotsman or could be Albert Hall. However I do believe they made some of them in their millions.

 

If you think I am wrong then I suggest reading the Pat Hammond books. Then come back and tell me I'm wrong.

 

http://www.hornbyguide.com/pat_hammond.asp

 

Do you actually have any knowledge of mass production? Or are assuming everything. 

 

I once worked in Production Part Control in Ford Motor Company. If I messed up, the production line stopped costing hundreds of millions. So I think I know how production works thank you very much.

 

 

 

 

Jason

Edited by Steamport Southport
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I would hope Bachmann be responsive to current trends using existing tooling to generate sales.

 

In the D&E sphere they have a number of items which will fit with other manufacturers' products and potential demand. The DBSO in DRS and NR colours would tie in with their own 37's, Dapol's 68's, Hornby's 31's etc. Mk2 coaches in DRS would fit the same. Easy for buyers to create an Anglian or Cumbrian short formation, or with existing nuclear flasks or Accurascale PFA's. Seems obvious (?!) since sales of DRS liveried locos over the last few years across all manufacturers must have been a noticeable chunk of the marketplace. There are other examples.

 

Hornby have done well with yellow coaches recently, just a relivery of existing toolings to meet demand.

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Ebay is an excellant valuation tool.

however its not just 1 auction your looking at, its patterns of consistency.

 

if you look up an item code and hit “sold” you see how much previous ones sold for, and “completed”, shows those that didn't sell. Almost always the lack of a sale is down to price, with condition a part factor in that price.

 

You do need to invest a bit of time, eliminate the lowest examples, (usually its a seller who doesnt appreciate its worth, or a faulty/damaged/butchered or inaccurate described one)... then look at the trend over time.


if you see consistent sales above a certain price, then you have an idea of how the market values it...

 

if you want an indicator on trade price & demand, look how much auctions sell complete for (not “buy it now”), on newly released stock... A few people have commented on the low s/h value of 2019’s new terriers... Consider many buyers are themselves dealers, and if they can buy new from Hornby, they arent going to pay more for it on ebay...if you take out those buyers, your down to pure demand from the public... and if there isnt appetite, it goes low.. as new rrp discounting has been limited in 2019, dealers are realising higher margins, which means that spread between s/h and rrp is wider...hence the terrier s/h price gap is wider... that to me would be a caution against a manufacturer making more... if demand was higher that gap would be less as the public, excluding dealers, would still be trying to buy for lower than rrp..

 

if you want a science formula why not consider this for a straw man... (its not an exact, and ive rounded but its just to give an idea) 

 

100% = rrp

85% = expected discount rrp

70% = a healthy s/h rrp

60% = potential trade  (ex vat)
50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price

 

apply examples..

 

Hornby K1...

 

£155 100% = rep

£133 85% = expected discount rrp

£110 70% = a healthy s/h rrp

£95   60% = potential trade  (ex vat)
£78   50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

£60   40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

£45   30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price


ebays median average “auction” close price for the last 90 days is £69, putting it exactly 45th percentile... 16 auction sales

unsold = 4, all > £72 (>45th percentile).. so demand lies <45th percentile.

 

Bachmann class 90..

 

£180 100% = rrp

£157 85% = expected discount rrp

£126 70% = a healthy s/h rrp

£108 60% = potential trade  (ex vat)
£90   50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

£72 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

£54 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price


ebays median average “auction” close price for the last 90 days is £130 putting it above 70th percentile..., 11 auction sales.

unsold = 6, all > £144 (80th percentile).. so demand lies between 70-80%

Theres more demand for 90’s over k1’s given by two benchmarks.. quantity sold (rarity people aren't selling as many) and price (value), both sold and unsold.


if it were me i’d be stocking more class 90’s than k1’s... new or second hand.

 

Now compare the Hornby and Bachmann 66’s...

 

(Hornby - 58 sold at auction, Median price £50 / 65%)

 

£75 100% = rrp

£64 85% = expected discount rrp

£53 70% = a healthy s/h rrp

£45 60% = potential trade  (ex vat)
£33 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

£30 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

£23 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price

 

(Bachmann - 206 sold at auction, Median price £75 / c48% )


£170 115% = 2017/18 rrp

£145 100% = rrp

£123 85% = expected discount rrp

£100 70% = a healthy s/h rrp

£85 60% = potential trade (ex vat)
£77 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

£50 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

£35 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price


Clearly people are clearing out Bachmann 66’s, but I think theres a great deal more to come.

Those who were buying before the 2019 rrp price drop are losing out nearer 60% of the rrp value.

However I believe there is correlation between Hornby 66 being in the lower end of the healthy range, and Bachmann’s slide out...

 

a few month in, a healthy s/h Hattons one could be £100-£120, which I think will put more downward pressure on both Hornbys and Bachmanns.. at the end of the day, the Bachmann one s/h is probably better than a Hornby, even new, and I expect retailers will discount the Bachmann 66 more in the face of the Hattons one.

 

 

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16 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Ebay is an excellant valuation tool.

however its not just 1 auction your looking at, its patterns of consistency.

 

if you look up an item code and hit “sold” you see how much previous ones sold for, and “completed”, shows those that didn't sell. Almost always the lack of a sale is down to price, with condition a part factor in that price.

 

You do need to invest a bit of time, eliminate the lowest examples, (usually its a seller who doesnt appreciate its worth, or a faulty/damaged/butchered or inaccurate described one)... then look at the trend over time.


if you see consistent sales above a certain price, then you have an idea of how the market values it...

 

if you want an indicator on trade price & demand, look how much auctions sell complete for (not “buy it now”), on newly released stock... A few people have commented on the low s/h value of 2019’s new terriers... Consider many buyers are themselves dealers, and if they can buy new from Hornby, they arent going to pay more for it on ebay...if you take out those buyers, your down to pure demand from the public... and if there isnt appetite, it goes low.. as new rrp discounting has been limited in 2019, dealers are realising higher margins, which means that spread between s/h and rrp is wider...hence the terrier s/h price gap is wider... that to me would be a caution against a manufacturer making more... if demand was higher that gap would be less as the public, excluding dealers, would still be trying to buy for lower than rrp..

 

if you want a science formula why not consider this for a straw man... (its not an exact, and ive rounded but its just to give an idea) 

 

100% = rrp

85% = expected discount rrp

70% = a healthy s/h rrp

60% = potential trade  (ex vat)
50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price

 

apply examples..

 

Hornby K1...

 

£155 100% = rep

£133 85% = expected discount rrp

£110 70% = a healthy s/h rrp

£95   60% = potential trade  (ex vat)
£78   50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

£60   40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

£45   30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price


ebays median average “auction” close price for the last 90 days is £69, putting it exactly 45th percentile... 16 auction sales

unsold = 4, all > £72 (>45th percentile).. so demand lies <45th percentile.

 

Bachmann class 90..

 

£180 100% = rrp

£157 85% = expected discount rrp

£126 70% = a healthy s/h rrp

£108 60% = potential trade  (ex vat)
£90   50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

£72 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

£54 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price


ebays median average “auction” close price for the last 90 days is £130 putting it above 70th percentile..., 11 auction sales.

unsold = 6, all > £144 (80th percentile).. so demand lies between 70-80%

Theres more demand for 90’s over k1’s given by two benchmarks.. quantity sold (rarity people aren't selling as many) and price (value), both sold and unsold.


if it were me i’d be stocking more class 90’s than k1’s... new or second hand.

 

Now compare the Hornby and Bachmann 66’s...

 

(Hornby - 58 sold at auction, Median price £50 / 65%)

 

£75 100% = rrp

£64 85% = expected discount rrp

£53 70% = a healthy s/h rrp

£45 60% = potential trade  (ex vat)
£33 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

£30 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

£23 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price

 

(Bachmann - 206 sold at auction, Median price £75 / c48% )


£170 115% = 2017/18 rrp

£145 100% = rrp

£123 85% = expected discount rrp

£100 70% = a healthy s/h rrp

£85 60% = potential trade (ex vat)
£77 50% = an unhealthy s/h rrp

£50 40% = a healthy s/h trade purchase price

£35 30% = an unhealthy s/h trade purchase price


Clearly people are clearing out Bachmann 66’s, but I think theres a great deal more to come.

Those who were buying before the 2019 rrp price drop are losing out nearer 60% of the rrp value.

However I believe there is correlation between Hornby 66 being in the lower end of the healthy range, and Bachmann’s slide out...

 

a few month in, a healthy s/h Hattons one could be £100-£120, which I think will put more downward pressure on both Hornbys and Bachmanns.. at the end of the day, the Bachmann one s/h is probably better than a Hornby, even new, and I expect retailers will discount the Bachmann 66 more in the face of the Hattons one.

 

 

 

A very interesting analysis .........

There's currently 344 Bach 37's on eBay and 190 Bach Class 66's  and that will no doubt increase....and with so much choice, average selling prices will likely fall.....

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Let's hope there's no negative press on the Hattons Class 66, and it'll probably start a decrease in Bachmann 66 prices - which has to be a good thing for the consumer as it's still a very good locomotive.

 

The only seriously disappointing Bachmann locomotive I've had lately was the Class 70 - lighter than a Class 25!!

 

Al.

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On 08/12/2019 at 10:27, The Johnster said:

It also accounts for the increasing problems we experience in obtaining spares; components are manufactured at the exact time and in the exact numbers required for a 'run', with none left over.

 

Parts are made per what is ordered.  The lack of spares is a choice made at the time of production, I assume on cost grounds, and thus has nothing to do with China.

 

On 08/12/2019 at 10:27, The Johnster said:

The Chinese do not make models in a factory like we used to.  They subcontract to a large number of 'cottage industry' suppliers of components, then collect the output from all over a very big country to an assembly plant, where it is all put together and packaged for shipping.  The firm here simply sends a CAD specification for each component and orders xxxx of to be delivered on a date, having done the R & D work.  Once the batch is complete and in the container, it's on to a different model.

 

Actually, those cottage industries are all located in the same city/small area, as pretty much all model train making occurs in that one small area of China.

 

For example, Jason Shron recently commented somewhere about the troubles Rapido have with their factory that they moved to a different part of the country - because all the suppliers/subcontractors/experienced workers are back where the factory originated (and where Rapido's other factory remains).

 

 

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1 hour ago, atom3624 said:

Let's hope there's no negative press on the Hattons Class 66, and it'll probably start a decrease in Bachmann 66 prices - which has to be a good thing for the consumer as it's still a very good locomotive.

 

The only seriously disappointing Bachmann locomotive I've had lately was the Class 70 - lighter than a Class 25!!

 

Al.

 

I'm glad that I'm not the only person thinking about the Bachmann Class 70s. I have four of the Freightliner versions and I have noticed a few issues with them. The first been that they are really light and struggle to haul a decent rake of wagons. Also the running speed even at top speed seems to be really slow. Do you have this issue? By comparison I have the Dapol 68 and one of these can handle 20+ of the Dapol Network Rail IOA hoppers no problem. The other issue I have is the wheels. On my 70s they always seem to be dirty even when stood and not used for a while. Whereas I have had some Dapol 68s from batch one which arrived in December 2016 and three years on they still haven't had or needed their wheels to be cleaned once. Just shows the difference. The Dapol 68 is a far superior model to the Bachmann 70. 

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The 70 with added lead only weighed 450g, the 68 weighs in at 700g with no 'adjustment' required.

I didn't find a speed problem with the 70, it's not an express locomotive, it's a goods loco, just its FAR too light.

 

I was so disappointed I sold my 70.

I've one 68, and am after another - both TPE's. Superb locomotive.

 

Bachmann got the detailing very nicely on the 70, but that's if it stays on a shelf somewhere.

Nowhere near representative in 'prototypical running'.

 

Al.

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