Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[KeithMacdonald]

3 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

I offer you the UK's  foot and mouth disease control in 2001. The law was not trampled over, and law can at need be created very rapidly to deal with a real threat; but those people directly affected in the livestock business certainly did feel trampled on,

 

Now that you've reminded me, unpleasant memories have resurfaced, Memories I'd rather not have back. People who watched events on TV from the comfort of their homes may have no idea at all that the cure was worse than the disease. Many people who did live in F&M control areas witnessed first hand distressing instances of incompetence and downright cruelty from people acting on behalf of the UK government's agencies (DEFRA/MAFF). Often including farms that were miles from known F&M outbreaks, with animals being shot in open fields by people with no previous experience of handling livestock.

 

Please read the Warmwell Knowstone transcripts:

https://web.archive.org/web/20190424233800fw_/http://www.warmwell.com/july15knowstonetranscripts.html

 

It's worth noting that the MAFF policies were based on theoretical mathematical modelling of "worst case" scenarios by "experts" at the University of London. The same "experts" were used for Swine Flu in 2009 and yet again today. Of course, when the "worst case" scenarios didn't happen, MAFF and the experts were congratulated for the promptness of their action, avoiding whether the action was ever proportionate or clinically necessary.

[mdvle]

6 hours ago, Colin_McLeod said:

An emergency structure has nothing to do with long term use.

 

Context matters - I was replying to the comment that the Chinese should build HS2 because they could build a hospital in a week.

 

Unless you consider HS2 to be an emergency structure, the point still stands.  When you have to follow all the regulations and other legalities and built things to last then it takes time.

[Colin_McLeod]

Fair enough. I take your point re context.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Colin_McLeod

[Arun Sharma]

1 hour ago, KeithMacdonald said:

 

Yet, it is relevant for similar reasons. Headline news in the UK would have us believe Avian Flu is somehow (and only) being spread by wild migrating birds. Ignoring the reality that most outbreaks of Avian Flu reported in the UK happen indoors in breeder farms. Typically in East Anglia, which use chicks imported by the lorry load from breeders in the east of Europe, where chicks can be bred and hatched more intensively and at lower cost, bringing Avian Flu in by road.

The single greatest movement of mass and number of live animals by air is the regular movement of one day-old chicks!

[KeithMacdonald]

17 minutes ago, Arun Sharma said:

The single greatest movement of mass and number of live animals by air is the regular movement of one day-old chicks!

 

Thanks. Fixed that for you.

 

Quote

Yet, it is relevant for similar reasons. Headline news in the UK would have us believe Avian Flu is somehow (and only) being spread by wild migrating birds. Ignoring the reality that most outbreaks of Avian Flu reported in the UK happen indoors in breeder farms. Typically in East Anglia, which use chicks imported by the lorry load air or road freight from breeders in the east of Europe, where chicks can be bred and hatched more intensively and at lower cost, bringing Avian Flu in by road road or air transport.

 

[The Johnster]

32 minutes ago, Arun Sharma said:

The single greatest movement of mass and number of live animals by air is the regular movement of one day-old chicks!

Going cheep...

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

3 hours ago, friscopete said:

In the 60's I made a rash statement to a group of ban the bombers I knew  that never mind the bomb we all be killed by chickens ...

It's what you can't, don't or won't see coming that gets you...

 

1 hour ago, KeithMacdonald said:

Now that you've reminded me, unpleasant memories have resurfaced, Memories I'd rather not have back. People who watched events on TV from the comfort of their homes may have no idea at all that the cure was worse than the disease...

Sorry about that. Those directly affected that I know or knew weren't concerned about illegal culling methods or general operational ineptitude in their area, but exactly what you bolded. As a vicar who kept livestock put it, 'the methodology adopted was on the Herodian principle: kill everything, we're bound to get the job done that way'. Insufficient intelligence; strange coincidence that this was also what led to people dying in Iraq at much the same time...

[Philou]

The matter that concerns me the most about this recent outbreak, is the haste in which the US (and the French here) want to bring back their personnel. Whilst is must be a worrying time for those with relatives out there, it seems to me that it's probably the worst thing to do - take medical aid out there, if needs be, but don't bring anyone (or anything) back presently.

 

Does anyone remember the BBC series years ago (I forget the name at the moment) where a deadly virus did come our way, by air, from the Far East?

(The railway angle of it was that they 'raided' preserved railway lines to be able to use steam locos to set up a skeletal transport system).

 

Cheers,

 

Philip

[Joseph_Pestell]

2 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Context matters - I was replying to the comment that the Chinese should build HS2 because they could build a hospital in a week.

 

 

 

In WW1, when it looked as though the main railway line from Paris to the Channel Ports would be interrupted by the advancing Germans, UK army engineers built a long stretch of double-track main line in a matter of weeks.

So we can do it. Just a matter of will.

[tomparryharry]

Deleted.

Edited January 29, 2020 by tomparryharry
Post deleted:- Not helpful

[Arun Sharma]

1 hour ago, Philou said:

The matter that concerns me the most about this recent outbreak, is the haste in which the US (and the French here) want to bring back their personnel. Whilst is must be a worrying time for those with relatives out there, it seems to me that it's probably the worst thing to do - take medical aid out there, if needs be, but don't bring anyone (or anything) back presently.

 

Does anyone remember the BBC series years ago (I forget the name at the moment) where a deadly virus did come our way, by air, from the Far East?

(The railway angle of it was that they 'raided' preserved railway lines to be able to use steam locos to set up a skeletal transport system).

 

Cheers,

 

Philip

November 2008 ish - It was called "Survivors" - I think it ran for a year or so.

[ejstubbs]

6 hours ago, KeithMacdonald said:

our own winter peaks of "ordinary flu" are not being reported with the same excitement.

 

That said, mortality rates for influenza are below 1%.  For novel coronavirus the figure appears to be about 3%, although this may be inflated if there is a larger pool of people who have been infected by the virus but who have not suffered severe enough symptoms to attend hospital and so have not been counted in the data.

[toboldlygo]

I work at a certain airport for my day job and the press/government are certainly underplaying things. When every flight coming in from China requires paramedics to attend, because someone on board is ill - it's cause for concern. The less said about outbound Chinese flight crews being masked and gloved up (because they are feverish, coughing, etc) when they are security screened going back to their planes...

[woodenhead]

14 minutes ago, toboldlygo said:

I work at a certain airport for my day job and the press/government are certainly underplaying things. When every flight coming in from China requires paramedics to attend, because someone on board is ill - it's cause for concern. The less said about outbound Chinese flight crews being masked and gloved up (because they are feverish, coughing, etc) when they are security screened going back to their planes...

But it doesn't mean everyone with any sign of illness has Corona Virus, they are just being prudent.

[toboldlygo]

12 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

But it doesn't mean everyone with any sign of illness has Corona Virus, they are just being prudent.

 

Just making people aware of what's going on - outside of the usual news channels.

[woodenhead]

4 minutes ago, toboldlygo said:

 

Just making people aware of what's going on - outside of the usual news channels.

Why? Do you think people are not being kept informed?

 

As I see it, the media and government are reporting there is an outbreak of a potentially lethal virus in China and what is being there to contain it, whilst here in the UK the government and health authorities have quietly stepped up protocols in a manner not likely to cause panic or alarm.

 

And you're stating on a forum that all planes from China are landing with medical issues and all the Chinese flight crews are feverish.

40 minutes ago, toboldlygo said:

I work at a certain airport for my day job and the press/government are certainly underplaying things. When every flight coming in from China requires paramedics to attend, because someone on board is ill - it's cause for concern. The less said about outbound Chinese flight crews being masked and gloved up (because they are feverish, coughing, etc) when they are security screened going back to their planes...

 

[The Johnster]

Aircraft arriving from China at any UK airport, certain or otherwise, are by definition long haul a/c, and hence big.  They will normally be carrying well over 100 passengers even when they are not crowded, and most random groups of 100+ people will contain one or two with minor illnesses in the normal run of things.  I cannot see that the authorities are underplaying anything; paramedics attending sounds like a sensible precaution in the circumstances, and I am somewhat re-assured by it.  They haven’t carted anyone with the sniffles  off in black vans driven by sinister figures in NBC suits yet.  It’s not cause for concern, but not doing it would be!
 

As for the press, this is the first time I’ve ever heard them accused of underplaying a situation.  They are, so far as I can see, behaving with their customary lack of perspective and panic mongering like it’s 1999, because panic sells papers.  They won’t be reporting sensible precautions; they want something that can be blown out of proportion. 
 

It’s a good idea IMHO to keep a sense of balance in these sorts of situations. We are very probably not going to die in a superbug pandemic, but some unfortunate victims sadly are, and a number already have.  The huge majority will recover, and a medication will be found to deal with the virus fairly soon.  You have to be within 1 metre of an infected person to be at any sort of risk, and if I were a betting man I’d put my money on nobody on this forum being affected, even to the extent of late delivery of models from China, though I’m sure it’ll be used as an excuse as will the Chinese New Year nobody apparently planned for despite there having been about 5,000 previous ones on a roughly annual basis.  

 

[robmcg]

I'm curious as to the impact of the virus on model railway production in the coming year. There has been major disruption to production already, I presume. 

 

China just pumped US$175 billion (I think) from its central bank into its domestic economy as a result of lost jobs, production and so on.

 

Can anyone speculate or clarify? Clearly it would be difficult for say a Hornby production engineer to fly to China to measure and assess things right now.

[The Stationmaster]

15 hours ago, robmcg said:

I'm curious as to the impact of the virus on model railway production in the coming year. There has been major disruption to production already, I presume. 

 

China just pumped US$175 billion (I think) from its central bank into its domestic economy as a result of lost jobs, production and so on.

 

Can anyone speculate or clarify? Clearly it would be difficult for say a Hornby production engineer to fly to China to measure and assess things right now.

The impact on the Chinese economy - of which model railways are an insignificant part of overall consumer goods manufacture - will take time to become clear.  There is a considerable difference in what we know of the way China is dealing with this outbreak and the way it dealt with the SARS outbreak in 2003.  For example this time round there are major restrictions on the movement of of people which no doubt also impacts on the movement of goods as it has been reported that special arrangements have been made in order to allow food supplies into Wuhan because the 'blockade' was preventing their delivery.

 

The 2003 SARS outbreak knocked Chinese growth and output back by a couple of percentage points but the impact was not so widely felt internationally.  Since then China's overall involvement in the worldwide economy, and its role as a supplier of consumer goods to the Western World in particular, has grown massively while Chinese involvement in various developments outside the country has also increased substantially.  So in theory the impact of the movement restrictions to help control spread of this outbreak will have a more significant domestic and international impact than the SARS outbreak.  But theory is one thing and practice is another so it is difficult to say what might happen in that respect although stock markets around the world seem to have made up their minds that there will be an impact.

 

Another significant thing this time is that it appears that most of the movement restrictions were put in place after people had travelled home for Chinese New Year.  That could have two effects - Wuhan itself is largely a production and development centre for all sorts of things with a strong presence from western companies who are no doubt involved in manufacture there so the infection might have spread although restrictions were out in place there quite early on.  But if - as is usual - many people went home for CNY they might not now be able to get back to where they worked so that effect could well potentially add to the normal problem of labour turnover due to CNY - but again we simply do not know what the impact might be on manufacture of consumer goods (or anything else).   But we can surmise that there might be some impact - without having much idea of what it will be.

 

As I mentioned in my original post choking off, or reducing, the supply of output from Chinese factories could have all sorts of impacts we wouldn't otherwise think of.  The Chinese Govt can easily take steps to financially protect companies and factories in China because it has the financial power to do so.  The situation outside China could be different because of an interruption to supplies and might even impact on concerns and businesses which are far more household names than purveyors of model railways.  For example I recently bough a camera - Japanese company but like many contemporary  'Japanese' cameras it was made in China, as were the new teapot and slow cooker my wife bought recently.  Those purchases are  possibly a microcosm of something far wider in economic and business terms but as yet we simply do not know what might happen beyond China if goods can't get to ports because of movement restrictions on people.  

 

as for Aommunication that is much simpler - the internet is a powerful tool for business communication particularly when it involves conversations halfway round the globe.

 

At the moment I think - as others have said - the biggest concern around the world has to be control of the spread of infection and the search for a vaccine.  The wider economic effects will have to come out in the wash and that  includes model railways.

[Harlequin]

It may be that the first evidence of the effects of this health emergency on our small area of interest could appear in the upcoming Bachmann quarterly announcement.

 

As I understand it, they have instigated this new quarterly process to reduce the chances of unpredictable delays between announcement and getting product to market.

 

So if the emergency has affected, or they predict it will affect, production and shipping they may make fewer announcements or possibly cancel this quarter's update entirely. Or we might see the effects in the following quarter.

 

This is speculation (as requested! ).

 

BTW: I'm not dismissing the horrible effects the virus is having on people's lives and on far more important issues that railway models. Trusting that a vaccine will be developed before it gets too much worse.

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by Harlequin

[railroadbill]

There's an article on the effect of coronavirus  on the Chinese economy here, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51352535?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story

 

If this epidemic is sorted soon, hopefully, the economic effect will be a blip.  However, another story talked about UK firms, especially small ones dealing with electronics who buy in Chinese circuit boards and so on, who are already having problems.

[The Johnster]

I’m attending a local hospital on a daily basis at the moment (literally, I’m writing this in recep/waiting room) for an issue requiring Radiotherapy, half way through a 4 week course.  A notice has appeared on Outpatients front door over the weekend, which I didn’t bother reading as I’m not directly affected, about patients who have visited Wuhan, China, in the last 2 weeks. 
 

So, at least for now and presumably for as long as the situation in China can be contained until a cure is found (hopefully soon), there is no concern about people who have been in China, but not Wuhan, in the last two weeks. As I said earlier, things need keeping in perspective, and I for one am going to keep calm and carry on, but not regardless!  Don’t panic yet, but keep an eye on the situation. 
 

But sensationalist reporting feeds on itself, and it’s easy to be influenced by it.

[Oldddudders]

39 minutes ago, railroadbill said:

 However, another story talked about UK firms, especially small ones dealing with electronics who buy in Chinese circuit boards and so on, who are already having problems.

We live in an era of 'just in time' deliveries to optimise cash-flow. An awful lot of firms will suffer quite quickly. 

[woodenhead]

The government is helping to fund a vaccine, the target is 6-8 months but that is very ambitious given the number of hoops a vaccine needs to go through to get sign off.

 

It all depends I guess how it develops and the mortality rate, they did get through a vaccine to Ebola very quickly during the most recent outbreak.

[TheQ]

I think there is a good chance corona will escape into the world,  the best the Chinese can do with it is slow it's escape,  while a vaccination is developed. 

The doctors surgery I attended today,  had sprouted Wuhan Warning notices..

 

We sell very expensive electronic equipment,  labeled made in the USA/ UK/ Europe as appropriate,  most of them are an assembly of,  made for us,  Chinese bits. It would just take the hold up of one small item to stop production.