Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Vistisen]

On 05/02/2020 at 23:59, APOLLO said:

Interesting article here - a bit concerning.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/05/chinas-coronavirus-not-remotely-control-world-economy-mounting2/

 

Far more to worry about than model trains.

 

brit15

It is concerning... but the silver lining is that the amount of CO2 emissions must also be falling if we are using 4+ million less barrels per day ( twice the entire output from the North sea) and China is down to about 10% of its normal manufacturing output. which is then not being shipped to the other side of the world. Perhaps it's part of 'Natures' solution to the climate problem 

[Mike Storey]

4 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

The answer is - as with all other production in China - really something of an unknown and is not being always sensibly presented in the (British) press with even articles in the financial section of  'The Daily Telegraph' somewhat misrepreseenting things.  At the moment all we are facing is effectively an extension by a few weeks of CNY and a far slower build up to normal production (where there is any build up at all).  

 

However what is happening is that some manufacturers relying on components coming from China are now cutting back production because, presumably, their stockpiles to take account of the CNY hiatus are vanishing.  Equally shipping schedules are apparently being reduced - obviously because shipments are much slower in building up after CNY than is normally the case.  But still everybody in the media seems to overlook the simple fact that there would in any case have been a 2 or 3 week gap in production if the virus problems hadn't happened.

 

What we simply don't know is how, and at what rate, any particular factory will be able to return to full production and in the lack of any concrete information putting numbers against that are little more than speculation.  It seems we can probably expect delays and that, as far as consumer goods are concerned, they will be longer than the normal period associated with CNY  - but that too is really speculation rather than concrete information.

 

What we can say however as far as Hornby is concerned is that some development work will no doubt be going ahead at normal pace because it is carried out in the UK.  and equally with this injection of capital they are ina. stronger financial position than they would have been without it.  We'll probably know no more until various Annual Report etc information emerges.

 

Whilst I totally agree that production rates etc are purely speculation at this stage, I spy a number of things which suggest it will be far worse than "just an extension by a few weeks of CNY".  This won't just affect Hornby, by any means. Development in the UK can only go so far without confirmation from a factory in China about manufacturing capability - can we build it this way?

 

• The markets and exchange rates are completely jittery - not necessarily a reliable indicator, but it does show which way the main houses are thinking.
• Oil price has dropped again, ostensibly because China will need far less of it for a significant period.
• Ditto, coal prices in Oz.
• Shipping orders for China are down by around 20% (to 2010 levels), and appear to be dropping further (unreliable reports from CNBC admittedly)  - that is far more than a rundown because the CNY is a bit iffy.
• There are significant break outs in Iran and Italy (which may or may not result in widespread infection across the ME and Europe).
• China has postponed its Congress for the first time since the Cultural Revolution, and its reporting of infections is all over the place.
• Vietnam, South Korea and perhaps Japan, are on a rising trend.

 

It is not the actual effects of the virus that are damning. It is the potential. This seems to be getting worse than SARS, and that was bad enough. Quite a few companies could go bust, in China and elsewhere, if this goes on much longer, especially given the very high levels of leverage reported. Xi has indicated there will be support for such companies, but that would appear to be only to ease credit, not eliminate it. They are already drawing down on their vast supplies of foreign exchange, but that is the very feature which has bolstered the image of a sound economy.

 

So I don't share your apparent optimism. If China does manage to re-start production relatively soon, you can bet it won't be prioritising hobby and leisure goods for supplies. I retain the opinion that Hornby's share sale was fortuitous, but not for the reasons they wanted, and that we will be waiting rather longer than a few weeks for product delivery to be resumed after the current supply is exhausted.

 

That said, its all speculation, that's true.

[Legend]

This really is a tricky one , but if it slows down deliveries or limits production then it directly interferes with Sales,which in turn has an effect on working capital  etc . So it is definitely worthwhile keeping an eye on it . Remember a few years ago when Hornby was effectively starved of production and had nothing to sell ? You could argue they never fully recovered from that one .  The Corona Virus has the potential to seriously disrupt supply chains and many companys finances .

 

I think I heard on radio that all aerosol nozzles are actually made in China .  Obviously anything in an aerosol is therefor affected. It makes you think .

[Bulleidboy100]

Just reported on the 6pm News, that if Chinese companies producing toys (model trains?) are not back to full production in a few weeks (not months), goods expected for Christmas, will not be in the shops. I have a few pre-orders due, according to Hornby, in the Summer, the dates usually slip, but with the current problem, it may not now be this year? 

[mdvle]

9 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

So I don't share your apparent optimism. If China does manage to re-start production relatively soon, you can bet it won't be prioritising hobby and leisure goods for supplies.

 

Yet this article in the Guardian quotes a woman who is back at work in a factory making toys parts...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/scared-china-workers-halt-firms-return-to-business

 

 

 

[mdvle]

11 hours ago, adb968008 said:

When I look at the spread map, I couldn't help but correlate that to countries with high Air Con usage, including the ship.

 

Cruise ships have a bad track record for virus spreading, less to do with high Air Con and more with packing lots of people into a small space with few opportunities to create distance from fellow passengers.

[Legend]

13 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

When your locked in your room for 2 weeks in quarantine, but still 40% of the ship catches it ?

 

We don't know . Too many variables . Suppose the incubation period for some is three weeks . Could they have caught the virus then and it take three week to appear ?    On the other hand , you could be correct and its transmitted through air conditioning . But that being the case wouldn't all people in the centre of the ship in inside cabins have it more than people with outside cabins?  I'm sure someone will have plotted the cabins where Coronavirus was declared. As others have said it may simply be that cruiseliners have a lot of people in close proximity.

 

There are going to be lots of unforeseen circumstances coming out of this .

1. Concern must obviously be for peoples health

2. Supply chain interrupted . Some goods in short supply , other companies starved of revenue with working capital issues . As people don't fly airlines and cruiselines will lose money. Have they enough reserves to survive it . It didn't take much to topple Thomas Cook.

3. It could cause the world to go into recession effects on Pension Funds etc etc.

 

I  think the supply of model trains could be the least of our worries

 

Here's hoping some cure is found quickly or/ and that we can check the spread of the virus.  

 

Sorry for the miserable post, but getting back to Hornby , the lack of things to sell will have a direct effect on its finances.

Edited February 25, 2020 by Legend

[Mike Storey]

14 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Yet this article in the Guardian quotes a woman who is back at work in a factory making toys parts...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/scared-china-workers-halt-firms-return-to-business

 

 

 

 

Well, that's alright then.

 

But in the next paragraph, it states only 20 out of 50 workers have returned since the CNY ended, over two weeks ago.

 

And the rest of the article largely supports my concerns - the Chinese are striving to re-open businesses, but are struggling, and many firms are heading for bankruptcy if this goes on too much longer.

[jjb1970]

10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

When your locked in your room for 2 weeks in quarantine, but still 40% of the ship catches it ? - if its not passing through the aircon from room to room then how is it, considering food is from off board the ship delivered in a sterile manner ?

 

The HVAC system pumps air into rooms/cabins and even if a passenger or crew member shuts the vent in their cabin the pressure is higher in the trunk than in the cabin. And unless there is a black out vent fans run continuously.  So I would be surprised if the virus is spreading that way.

[Siberian Snooper]

A lot depends on whether the air con is recirculating air or using fresh air, on warships it is usual to use fresh air, but the air passed through air treatment units (ATUs) with very fine mesh filters and these were tested using teargas. This was to comply with  NBCD conditions.

 

 

[jjb1970]

6 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

There is thread dealing with the wider effects of the virus in China so I don't intend to repeat that here but some things need to be said in the light of comments above.  And let us not forget against what is or isn't happening that there is obviously the human cost in China but there is an awful lot more being read into the commercial situation than the reality of things suggests.  All factories seem to have extended CNY closure over the full three weeks (= one week lost), labour is returning slowly and didn't seem to start until another week after that, with considerable movement restrictions (= a second week lost).  We don't know how long it usually takes to build up to full production in various industries but we can surmise it must be a couple of weeks for some and probably less for others but it obviously depends on there being a full labour force available.

 

As it stand now shipping has slipped 2 maybe 3 weeks behind normal CNY resumption and quantities have reduced,.  No ship owner will run with an economically too small cargo, they can't afford to do that in an industry where margins are already cripplingly tight and there is considerable over capacity -  so any effect will very quickly hit cargo shipping quite hard.  Oddly it is reported in one UK 'paper that food is rotting in reefers which cannot berth in Chinese ports - quite how food rots in a reefer (refrigerated ship) I can't quite work out, nor does the fact that they can't berth make much sense.  In other words there is undoubtedly some sloppy reporting.

 

Many commodity prices are down, by very small percentage points, and that includes gold. But some prices were already falling before this outbreak became world news.  Oil prices are down but they are passing the northern hemisphere seasonal peak and still not as low as 2017 levels.  So the economic effect is mixed and stock markets are now a little more jittery.  some cruise operators, particularly Carnival group are suffering a drop in bookings but don't yet seem to be responding with price cuts.

 

So its a mixed picture overall and has 'Legend' has noted above (and I previously said in the relevant thread) the effect on businesses outside China could be a factor many people haven't thought about - if you have less to sell, or cannot sell services, your business might suffer financial problems.   But the very l;east of that is going to be the model railway world when far bigger players on the High Street and on shopping malls rely on imported consumer goods.

 

The relevant thread is here -

 

 

 

 

Sloppy reporting, also the usual opportunistic efforts by troubled companies to grab a good passing excuse to explain away their poor performance.  

 

The coronavirus is having a huge impact on shipping but the thing most owners are really worried about is not the dip in trade etc. That is an issue but owners go through these ups and downs and it is part of the industry. The shipowners in real trouble because of the virus were already in dire straits  (so far at least). The real issue is ships cannot complete docking surveys, get statutory and class surveys done etc. And these things are absolute requirements under the Conventions with no clauses addressing delays caused by flu outbreaks. So far most Flag Administrations are being reasonable but strictly speaking an officious Port State Control Officer could take action. And the backing up of ships waiting for maintenance,  docking, surveys etc is causing problems already. 

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

 

Well, that's alright then.

 

But in the next paragraph, it states only 20 out of 50 workers have returned since the CNY ended, over two weeks ago.

 

And the rest of the article largely supports my concerns - the Chinese are striving to re-open businesses, but are struggling, and many firms are heading for bankruptcy if this goes on too much longer.

 

Certainly wasn't attempting to say everything was back to normal, just pointing out that even toy factories have resumed operating and thus China isn't prioritizing who gets to reopen.

 

As for the the number of workers, it is hard to judge if that is the result of the health issue or simply situation normal - we know from many comments in the past that many of these factories take 2 to 4 weeks to resume fully from CNY as they discover how many of their workers from pre-CNY either haven't returned, or have found better employment elsewhere.

 

My guess would be it is a combination of both, but we the public likely will never know.

 

 

[mdvle]

11 hours ago, adb968008 said:

When your locked in your room for 2 weeks in quarantine, but still 40% of the ship catches it ? - if its not passing through the aircon from room to room then how is it, considering food is from off board the ship delivered in a sterile manner ?

 

From a NY Times article(1), the CDC view on cruise ship aircon:

 

“no current evidence to suggest that the virus spreads between rooms on a ship through the air-handling system.”

 

There is also no indication that the food is being delivered in a sterile manner - see this video of food delivery that raises several concerns regarding virus containment but clearly shows open food being delivered, likely from the ship's kitchens - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otFbY-vHNos

 

Essentially the media reports indicate that the Japanese government and the cruise line/staff handled things very poorly from a quarantine perspective.

 

The ship knew a passenger who had left was confirmed to have had Covid-19 on February 3rd, waited until that evening to inform passengers, and didn't confine passengers to their cabins until February 5th.  For a virus that can be contagious but show no symptoms for up to 14 days (and maybe longer), they allowed people to mingle and use buffets for 2 additional days after knowing of a problem.

 

And even once a "quarantine" was instituted, there were enough violations that isolation was a joke - like the people who, on hearing the food carts in the hall, rush to open their balcony doors so that the people across the hall would get fresh air when the food was delivered(2) - but at the same time possibly creating a breeze from their possibly contaminated cabin into a non-contaminated cabin.  Nice gesture, but sort of violates isolation protocols.

 

The NY Times article demonstrates that the passengers were in a quarantine in name only, with many other questionable practices in place.

 

1 - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-cruise-ship.html

2 - https://www.businessinsider.com/how-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-went-wrong-2020-2#crew-members-brought-meals-to-passengers-rooms-but-the-workers-continued-to-eat-together-in-the-ships-mess-hall-19

[Andy Hayter]

7 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

 

 

As it stand now shipping has slipped 2 maybe 3 weeks behind normal CNY resumption and quantities have reduced,.  No ship owner will run with an economically too small cargo, they can't afford to do that in an industry where margins are already cripplingly tight and there is considerable over capacity -  so any effect will very quickly hit cargo shipping quite hard.  Oddly it is reported in one UK 'paper that food is rotting in reefers which cannot berth in Chinese ports - quite how food rots in a reefer (refrigerated ship) I can't quite work out, nor does the fact that they can't berth make much sense.  In other words there is undoubtedly some sloppy reporting.

 

 

 

 

Strictly reefers are refrigerated and not necessarily frozen, so food can rot.

 

Not being able to berth suggests that the berths are already occupied.  This may be a problem in loading - perhaps unlikely since the owner will simply say "s*d it we sail at midnight.  What is loaded is loaded, what isn't will wait for the next ship.  We can always fill up at Singapore, Mubai, Khorfakkan or wherever."  And generally they can. 

 

It sounds to me as if there is a problem unloading in the Chinese ports.  This can be for a number of reasons:

Lack of crane drivers to  unload the containers - or lack of the best trained and fastest drivers.

Lack of internal port handling staff delaying movement of the containers on the quayside

Lack of customs officials to clear imports

Lack of truck drivers to take the containers to their next destination.

 

Any or all of these will rapidly cause port constipation and will result in ships on berth not being unloaded quickly and it is more difficult for the ship owner to say b*@@er this for a game of soldiers, and just sail away, because his ship has a stack of containers at the top and no home if he does.  [Plus of course a contract to deliver to port X and not somewhere else.]

 

I had the pleasure (not the right word) of seeing the Turkish port of Ambali (Istanbul European side) become congested like this at the start of the Libyan war.  Turkey was supplying a lot of building materials to Libya and when the bombing started and the ports were shut, all of the boats in transit turned around.  Containers were stranded in port (with demurrage) for weeks and even months, every inch of warehousing within 50km was booked solid.  The only road into the port looked like a lorry parking lot.  

 

Maybe not sloppy reporting after all.

[robmcg]

A bigger issue now is how to manage what appears to be no more dangerous than a cold or fly virus.

 

When I write 'appears to be' I mean that most deaths outside China are reportedly old people and or people with pre-existing illness

 

I think we are looking more at fear of the unknown or panic than actual threat to life beyond the norm.

[micklner]

6 minutes ago, robmcg said:

A bigger issue now is how to manage what appears to be no more dangerous than a cold or fly virus.

 

When I write 'appears to be' I mean that most deaths outside China are reportedly old people and or people with pre-existing illness

 

I think we are looking more at fear of the unknown or panic than actual threat to life beyond the norm.

It has been said the Pneumonia kills thousands every year and yet never hardly gets mentioned . Time will tell on this virus about 2% death rate at the moment .

Spanish Flu , killed 5 million after WW1

Edited February 25, 2020 by micklner

[robmcg]

3 minutes ago, micklner said:

It has been said the Pneumonia kills thousands every year and yet never hardly gets mentioned . Time will tell on this virus about 2% death rate at the moment .

Spanish Flu , killed 5 million after WW1

 

The 1918 flu killed fit young people, so far, and so far as we know, this current virus does not. 

 

Global panic anyone? I know that super-bugs make for scary scenarios .

[Andy Hayter]

Just to try and put death rates into perspective:

The 2018/19 virulent flu epidemic created a death rate of 0.25% in the US.  There are surely problems in making sure the statistics are accurate, but let's take the number as "fact".

So far this coronavirus seems to have a death rate of around 2% and I have the same reservations about statistical recording - especially if self isolation means that those with minor symptoms are never recorded.

The 1918/19 Spanish flu has a quoted death rate of 2.5% but the statistics do need to be equally handled with a spoonful of salt.  Since then of course we have found antibiotics, which while they do not treat the virus, do treat bacterial infections of those severely weakened by the virus.

 

I would countenance against treating the death rate as something "fairly normal for viruses at this time of year."  At best it is at the upper end.

[robmcg]

6 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

Just to try and put death rates into perspective:

The 2018/19 virulent flu epidemic created a death rate of 0.25% in the US.  There are surely problems in making sure the statistics are accurate, but let's take the number as "fact".

So far this coronavirus seems to have a death rate of around 2% and I have the same reservations about statistical recording - especially if self isolation means that those with minor symptoms are never recorded.

The 1918/19 Spanish flu has a quoted death rate of 2.5% but the statistics do need to be equally handled with a spoonful of salt.  Since then of course we have found antibiotics, which while they do not treat the virus, do treat bacterial infections of those severely weakened by the virus.

 

I would countenance against treating the death rate as something "fairly normal for viruses at this time of year."  At best it is at the upper end.

 

The gathering of 'cause of death' statistics is indeed a very inexact science, where deaths may be from secondary infection. I take your point.

 

That 2018-19  'flu 'epidemic' at 0.25% in the US in not in my opinion remotely comparable to anything we know and can measure sensibly.

 

The Spanish flu of 1918 had very high death rates in, say, Samoa, like 30%, and the transmission was by Europeans to a population with different immune systems.   Thus there are a lot of unknowns, but what we know so far is that it is not killing lots of people outside China, and inside China we are unlikely ever going to know.

[Andy Hayter]

9 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

strange how Western Europe all declared cases, but none in Eastern Europe... some of those countries even have direct flights to China / Dubai and of course Italy too.

 

I guess the virus doesnt attach itself to slavic languages.

I wonder, if when emergency EU aid is released, if that might change.

 

Russia - 2 cases - so Slavic language protection is another Snopes false fact.

[Philou]

Over here (France) grubbymint is getting a bit twitchy due to a previous incident (Chernobyl anyone?) when the then govt. blatantly lied about the radioactive cloud, saying that it had stopped at the French border (Shengen now is in force so you can't stop it ). We think reading between the lines that there may well be big poo coming our way and the Health Minister went - allegedly to contest the mayor of Paris seat - before it all hits the rapidly rotating air movement machine.

 

I'm not sure what my take is on it at the moment, other than had we known that kids having returned from holidays in China or Italy, have been excluded from school for 14 days as from this Monday - we would have hung onto the grandchildren as we did go over the border to Germany - close enough to Italy - no? We miss the little b**gers  angels already - they've only been away two days!

 

The railway angle? Errr - none.

 

Good luck to you all in the UK as it seems you've had and are going to get more bad weather.

 

Philip

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Philou

[jjb1970]

Indonesia has the answer, they're being protected by God...…. it must be true because their health minister said so.

[JSpencer]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

strange how Western Europe all declared cases, but none in Eastern Europe... some of those countries even have direct flights to China / Dubai and of course Italy too.

 

I guess the virus doesnt attach itself to slavic languages.

I wonder, if when emergency EU aid is released, if that might change.

 

Maybe this virus does not survive in cold places and prefers hot ones, unlike the flu.

 

1 hour ago, robmcg said:

 

The gathering of 'cause of death' statistics is indeed a very inexact science, where deaths may be from secondary infection. I take your point.

 

 

 

The inexactness of the stats are probably about the same for all viruses except really nasty ones like Ebola and SARs where mild cases are not that common.

 

The conclusion to be had is that we don't know how efficient our detection methods are (doubtless weaknesses are there as we have cases of people being all clear one day and ill the next), how much is covered up and so on.

 

Statistically if we take factors that can make the stats worse and pit them against the factors that make the stats better, it still equals out to a virus about 10 times more deadly than a flu.

Yeah, it is not as strong as SARs or Ebola, but it probably this factor that allows it to spread more easily as many people probably just shrugged off most light/mild cases. Making it harder to detect and more deadly (you are not going to waste time at the doctors/hospital if you feel only lightly ill - by contrast Ebola would consign you to a hospital bed pretty quickly).

 

It won't have a positive impact on model train production for sure, and my advice would be to stock up on tinned/conserved food because the biggest effect so far is that where ever it appears, the supermarket shelves get emptied quite quickly!

 

 

 

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, JSpencer said:

 

Maybe this virus does not survive in cold places and prefers hot ones, unlike the flu.

Canada so far has somewhere around 10 confirmed cases of of Covid-19, including one which was the result of recent travel to Iran (patient had no other travel).

 

Suspect more likely, particularly given the apparent lengthy incubation period, it is more likely random luck as to where it ends up combined with people who don't require hospitalization not self-reporting their symptoms.

 

 

[Ozexpatriate]

1 hour ago, JSpencer said:

Maybe this virus does not survive in cold places and prefers hot ones, unlike the flu.

A notable politician in my country suggested (without, I suspect, much in the way of scientific evidence) that it would be warm enough in April to end the epidemic.

 

But we are far off topic when a more suitable thread exists here with no updates since Valentine's Day.