Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Ron Ron Ron]

45 minutes ago, Chamby said:

.......Doesn’t look good if you’re elderly, male and with an underlying health problem, some worrying death rates are being reported in those groups.  Sounds scarily like the demographic of many of our Model Railway club members......

 

The most reasonable worst case scenario figures that have been mentioned, make for very sobering reading.

An 80% infection rate in the U.K. population, with a mortality rate of 1% (up to half a million deaths)..

If only 10% of that figure actually occurs, that's still 50,000 deaths.

It's very easy to be very cynical and not believe this to be realistic or believable.

 

Whatever the outcome, that sounds like a lot of us old codgers heading for an early dispatch.

The model railway community is bound to take a noticeable hit as you suggest.

Knock on effects on the hobby?

Knock on effects on the industry sector supporting the hobby?

 

Anybody got a nuclear bunker they'd like to share with some amiable company?

 

 

 

.

[bradfordbuffer]

4 hours ago, friscopete said:

Your all moaning about  merely missing holidays etc .I have been banned from going to blues jams and jazz open nights  in the city  until further notice .Its not so much a ban as 'if you go dont come back ." I do have COPD so maybe she is right .

Many antiseptic  gels are mainly IPA and a gel so getting a bottle of IPA may help .If the shops run out look for Tamiya thinners at a pinch.

IPA..... Indian pale ale? Dont wash with it drink it?!....so glad just took early retirement from train driving.....no mixing with the smelly public on trains and stations....as well as fellow staff whose hygiene may be questionable....just me and pooch up on moors no germs up there just mud and fresh air...

 

Let's see what government say today 3rd March...how we are to tackle the current problem...we all need to try and do our bit....

 

Stay safe...

 

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

This one made me giggle,

 

 

 

Gibbo.

[steve1]

I can hear the ghost of Corporal Jones...”Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring! Don’t panic!”

 

steve

[spikey]

I read that if/when it comes to it, the supermarkets and  their suppliers allegedly have a plan to concentrate production and distribution on "the essentials".  I can see a lot of people being very grumpy when they discover what "the essentials" turn out to be ...

[Butler Henderson]

1 hour ago, spikey said:

I read that if/when it comes to it, the supermarkets and  their suppliers allegedly have a plan to concentrate production and distribution on "the essentials".  I can see a lot of people being very grumpy when they discover what "the essentials" turn out to be ...

And its going to an absolute nightmare for someone who has self-isolated and, as is being advised, makes a on-line grocery order for delivery to their doorstep only to find a large proportion of what they have ordered has been substituted with items they will not use. As someone with a medically diagnosed  food allergy their is no way I could sensibly do an on-line order as I have to do a grand tour of all of the locally available stores (i.e. not Iceland or Tesco) to gain a sensibly balanced stock of groceries  and Sainsburys in particular is an absolute joke with the amount of out of stock items, or if in stock use by that day, so I would have no confidence in any on-line order with them being fulfilled as ordered at all and how many of the substituted items would be dangerous to me to eat.

[Captain Kernow]

23 minutes ago, Butler Henderson said:

And its going to an absolute nightmare for someone who has self-isolated and, as is being advised, makes a on-line grocery order for delivery to their doorstep only to find a large proportion of what they have ordered has been substituted with items they will not use. As someone with a medically diagnosed  food allergy their is no way I could sensibly do an on-line order as I have to do a grand tour of all of the locally available stores (i.e. not Iceland or Tesco) to gain a sensibly balanced stock of groceries  and Sainsburys in particular is an absolute joke with the amount of out of stock items, or if in stock use by that day, so I would have no confidence in any on-line order with them being fulfilled as ordered at all and how many of the substituted items would be dangerous to me to eat.

If the items you regularly need are not perishable or can at least be frozen, then one is led inevitably to the need to stock up in advance, which is what lots of other people appear to be starting to do.

 

[ejstubbs]

12 hours ago, Chamby said:

Some interesting morbidity data emerging today on the Beeb website:

 

Just for clarity in the context of this discussion, the information in that article relates to mortality rates i.e. how many people who get the disease end up dying from it.  Morbidity is the number or, more usually, proportion of people in a total population who get the disease.  So when, for example, Ron Ron Ron refers to an "80% infection rate," that's a morbidity figure.

 

19 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Elsewhere Coronovirus is being dubbed a rich white Londoners virus, as they are the only ones who can afford to go to Italy.

 

That would seem to be based on a rather exaggerated view of the cost of holidays in Italy.  As Ron Ron Ron mentioned, many recent returnees from Italy will have been skiing, and it's generally accepted that (away from the premier, fur-coat resorts like Cortina d'Ampezzo) Italian ski resorts are "good value", if not as dirt cheap as some in Eastern Europe, or Andorra.

Edited March 3, 2020 by ejstubbs

[Torper]

10 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

The most reasonable worst case scenario figures that have been mentioned, make for very sobering reading.

An 80% infection rate in the U.K. population, with a mortality rate of 1% (up to half a million deaths)..

 

I find that infection rate very difficult to believe.  The worst flu epedemic in the UK that I can remember was in 1957 when an unprepared public was hit by Asian flu for which there was no vaccine and which was described as having "extraordinary infectivity".  It too originated in China and killed millions worldwide, even although there was nothing like the amount of foreign travel then as there is now.  In the UK, which then had a population of some 51 million, it was reckoned that 9 million people caught Asian flu, which is about 18%.

 

DT

[Reorte]

11 minutes ago, Torper said:

 

I find that infection rate very difficult to believe.  The worst flu epedemic in the UK that I can remember was in 1957 when an unprepared public was hit by Asian flu for which there was no vaccine and which was described as having "extraordinary infectivity".  It too originated in China and killed millions worldwide, even although there was nothing like the amount of foreign travel then as there is now.  In the UK, which then had a population of some 51 million, it was reckoned that 9 million people caught Asian flu, which is about 18%.

The problem with this one, which helps it spread, is the up to two weeks of being able to spread it whilst still feeling fine.

[jonny777]

As an incurable lifetime cynic, I find it hard to believe that a virus would simply mutate into having a 14 day incubation period just a couple of weeks before the Chinese New Year (and all the travel that involves) in a city which contains China's biological warfare facility. 

 

However, the forced media panic will guarantee one thing in the future; a clamour for the vaccine when it is produced. Next winter, expect there to be demands for the coronavirus in addition to influenza. I doubt the drug companies will refuse the idea of selling twice the amount of vaccines to the NHS at a profit. 

 

And who pays for the NHS? The very people who will demand their vaccine, thus transferring even more taxpayers money into private company coffers. Nice work if you can get it. 

[Guest Lyonesse]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

Alternatively, kill the potential.. let it go, infect everyone at once, have 10 days of pain.. at that the virus is done, by combination of immunity and inability to transmit... though vaccine profits are gone, as will any long term impetuous for research funding into the future to learn and prevent.

 

The strategy is to slow the spread.  If 70% of the population get it in the same week then the hospitals will be overwhelmed and many more people will die, as happend in Wuhan.  If 70% of the population get it but the infections are spread over several months then the hospitals have a sporting chance of nursing the worst affected and death rates will be lower.  This happened in the other Chinese provinces.

 

[woodenhead]

1 hour ago, jonny777 said:

As an incurable lifetime cynic, I find it hard to believe that a virus would simply mutate into having a 14 day incubation period just a couple of weeks before the Chinese New Year (and all the travel that involves) in a city which contains China's biological warfare facility. 

 

However, the forced media panic will guarantee one thing in the future; a clamour for the vaccine when it is produced. Next winter, expect there to be demands for the coronavirus in addition to influenza. I doubt the drug companies will refuse the idea of selling twice the amount of vaccines to the NHS at a profit. 

 

And who pays for the NHS? The very people who will demand their vaccine, thus transferring even more taxpayers money into private company coffers. Nice work if you can get it. 

So you think this is a stitch up between pharma giants and the Chinese military - that's not cynicism that's paranoia 

[jonny777]

26 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

So you think this is a stitch up between pharma giants and the Chinese military - that's not cynicism that's paranoia 

 

Possibly, but what if the Chinese want 'in' on part of the $billions being made by Western pharma companies? It's not paranoia to understand that even secretive communists can be greedy for cash. 

 

I have read many conspiracy theories on the subject, which I'm not going to elaborate on here (people of that inclination can search for themselves), but if you think my cynicism is paranoia I would advise you not to read anything published by dissident Chinese scientists concerning the laboratory experiments on human DNA manipulation that they are performing over there. 

 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

I find it quite irritating that certain politicians are carefully dancing around making accusations that the NHS will not be able to cope, because of the state of the health service and it’s level of funding etc.

In short, they are blatantly champing at the bit to make political capital out of a serious situation. Ba***rds!

 

The reality is that if a mass epidemic breaks out and there are high levels of people needing serious medical treatment, no health service could avoid the risk of being overwhelmed.

That is why the UN and WHO people are saying that one of the most important measures to take, is to protect the health system from being overwhelmed and seriously damaged by the effects of the virus.

In other words, do not fill the hospitals with infected people. Keep them out of hospitals as much as is possible, except where there are secure isolation facilities.

In Italy they are keeping infected people away from the hospitals, unless they are admitted under strict control.

Large marquees have been set up outside of the nearest large hospitals to my sister and people arriving are tested and triaged in there before being allowed into the hospital.

Over here, we just hear talk of how they would cope with large numbers of infected people in hospital, when they should be thinking about how to keep large numbers of infected people, isolated at home or elsewhere and restricting hospital admissions for the most seriously affected only.

 

.

[jjb1970]

Before accusing China of anything it's worth keeping in mind that so far they have been the hardest hit and despite a general belief in the rest of the world that their government has a complete and callous indifference to the well being of their people that is not the case. Maintaining a repressive regime with a monopoly on power is not the same as viewing people as disease fodder and their government appears to be pretty attentive to the tides of public opinion and maintaining societal cohesion etc.

And I suspect if it was indeed a leak of a Chinese militarised viral strain we'd be seeing an awful lot more than a variation of flu with a moderate rate of mortality and serious incapacity.

[Gibbo675]

9 minutes ago, jonny777 said:

 

Possibly, but what if the Chinese want 'in' on part of the $billions being made by Western pharma companies? It's not paranoia to understand that even secretive communists can be greedy for cash. 

 

I have read many conspiracy theories on the subject, which I'm not going to elaborate on here (people of that inclination can search for themselves), but if you think my cynicism is paranoia I would advise you not to read anything published by dissident Chinese scientists concerning the laboratory experiments on human DNA manipulation that they are performing over there. 

 

 

Hi Jonny,

 

Interesting post and one that may well have merit.

 

Are you aware that the WHO currently has $550milion in 'pandemic derivative bonds' lodged at the World Bank that will mature in either June or July, should a pandemic be declared before then the derivatives shall fail and all that wonga along with the 11% interest they are earning will all disappear.

 

It seems to me that the mind virus has infected many more people than the corona virus has done so far

 

What a conspiracy nut job I really am !!!

 

Gibbo.

[tomparryharry]

That's pretty much Civil Defence stuff. If you're going to die, die at home. There is nothing a hospital can do to help you, once you've died. 

 

A lot of the flu stuff is good practice. Keep warm, dry, well lubricated, and don't spread it around. I've definitely minimised my external visitations until this little lot blows over. 

 

A little harsh, but that is the ugly side of life. 

 

I'm off now, to wash my keyboard.

[Colin_McLeod]

This thread should be renamed "The crazy paranoid Coronavirus conspiracy theory thread"

 

Some posts in the past two pages would be more at home in a keyboard warrior social media page.

[Captain Kernow]

4 hours ago, Reorte said:

The problem with this one, which helps it spread, is the up to two weeks of being able to spread it whilst still feeling fine.

What is not clear to me, is the method of transmission of the virus, if the infected person is not coughing, spluttering etc. Assuming they are not in the habit of spitting at people as a greeting, is the transmission mechanism simply a case of them having it on their hands and touching stuff or is the air that they exhale also going to spread it (and if so, how close do you have to be, to be at risk?).

 

[woodenhead]

3 minutes ago, Captain Kernow said:

What is not clear to me, is the method of transmission of the virus, if the infected person is not coughing, spluttering etc. Assuming they are not in the habit of spitting at people as a greeting, is the transmission mechanism simply a case of them having it on their hands and touching stuff or is the air that they exhale also going to spread it (and if so, how close do you have to be, to be at risk?).

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366

 

My colleague who's partner is a nurse mentioned to me 'within 2 metres of an infected surface for 15 minutes' 

Edited March 3, 2020 by woodenhead

[Captain Kernow]

5 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366 

Thanks. I had seen that page, but the implication there is that (in seeking to avoid getting infected) when you are around someone who is infected, you (and they) already know or have a good idea that they are infected, because they will already by coughing etc.

 

I'm just not clear how infected people, who still feel completely fine, transmit the disease onwards. It must clearly involve touching surfaces that other (non infected) people touch, but how much of a risk is the air that they exhale out? I've not seen that explicitly answered anywhere (unless the answer has been hiding in plain sight from me!).

 

7 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

My colleague who's partner is a nurse mentioned to me 'within 2 metres of an infected surface for 15 minutes' 

Presumably 'within 2 metres of an infected person?' 

 

The virus can't yet jump up from a surface, can it?!

 

[spikey]

What's puzzling me is how long can this virus exist on surfaces like clothing (such as gloves, woolly hats and so forth) and on solid surfaces?

[jonny777]

I think one of the most sensible precautions suggested by a medic on our local TV last night, was never to touch your mouth or nose with your hands unless you have washed them immediately before doing so. 

 

A lot of fuss has been made over washing hands after visiting the toilet (which ought to be a routine anyway - but sadly many people just don't bother) but when we think about it there are a lot of surfaces such as bus/train grab handles, shop door handles, supermarket trolley handles, etc. etc., where we can have no idea of who might have been in contact with them before we touch them. 

 

A little bit of careful thought over personal hygiene may not stop the spread of the virus, but should slow it down significantly. 

[Pandora]

Spoke to my neighbour an NHS Doctor in an Hospital, for his advice,  those who have one foot in the grave medical conditions are at risk of dieing,  eg  any of these  ailments : the elderly, , cardiac, respiratory, diabetes ,  ordinary flu takes those people down anyway but without attracting  the media hyperbola.  Nevertheless his advice that it is a strong virus "Be Careful".