HS2

[runs as required]

Dr B-Ching in yesterday's Private Eye

I thought this relevant here for integrated through running, fares and timetabling as it gets up and running , but full version posted in the Covid-19 - The silver lining (Positives!).

Stay safe

dh (DNR)

[John Tomlinson]

7 minutes ago, The Great Bear said:

I presume hs2 are going to have to have an ecologist look at each bit of vegetation to be cl

Quite right.

 

I though it was illegal to destroy a birds nest (this note seems to confirm that) so presumably hs2 are going to have to have an ecologist check each bit of vegetation to be cleared for nesting birds and leave any that do have nesting birds and work around them until the winter. So the protestors may still think they have "achieved" something in delaying works.

The Law as your attachment shows is fairly clear. In respect of nesting birds the guidance is for increased risk between 1st March and 31st July, but there is also risk outside of this period.

 

If, and it is at least a possibility if not a probability, the project as a whole is re-examined in the light of the state of the public finances following Coronavirus, then should it not go ahead the protesters' "achievement" would be somewhat more permanent.

 

John.

[Mark Saunders]

7 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

The Law as your attachment shows is fairly clear. In respect of nesting birds the guidance is for increased risk between 1st March and 31st July, but there is also risk outside of this period.

 

If, and it is at least a possibility if not a probability, the project as a whole is re-examined in the light of the state of the public finances following Coronavirus, then should it not go ahead the protesters' "achievement" would be somewhat more permanent.

 

John.

 

It looks to me as if you are looking at the final cost again rather than the amount spent per year!

 

look at how much a house costs when you buy it and then factor in all the interest payments on it plus all the work to get it in the condition you want! It starts getting to a big number.

 

if not done now you will have to reinvent the wheel again!

[John Tomlinson]

43 minutes ago, Mark Saunders said:

 

It looks to me as if you are looking at the final cost again rather than the amount spent per year!

 

look at how much a house costs when you buy it and then factor in all the interest payments on it plus all the work to get it in the condition you want! It starts getting to a big number.

 

if not done now you will have to reinvent the wheel again!

Mark, I'm not even trying to make the calculations you suggest, thankfully that will be down to other people hopefully with bigger brains than mine.

 

What I suspect is that every State Treasury Department, every Central Bank, and also global institutions such as the IMF, will be near panic stricken at the moment as to how this ends and the world avoids or minimises serious economic damage. That might be mega recession, massive inflation, or something else, or indeed a combination of the preceding. Of course we won't know how it ends for a while at least, will it or something similar flare up again etc., etc.

 

Whatever the merits of this project HS2, as a substantial capital spend and commitment by Government at a time of unprecedented pressure on finances,  I can't see how it won't be subject to reconsideration, even if the answer is a resounding decision to carry on.

 

Anyone knowing better should contact Mr.R Sunak, at 11 Downing Street, he'll be delighted to hear from you!

 

John.

[Mark Saunders]

3 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

 

What I suspect is that every State Treasury Department, every Central Bank, and also global institutions such as the IMF, will be near panic stricken at the moment as to how this ends and the world avoids or minimises serious economic damage. That might be mega recession, massive inflation, or something else, or indeed a combination of the preceding. Of course we won't know how it ends for a while at least, will it or something similar flare up again etc., etc.

 

Whatever the merits of this project HS2, as a substantial capital spend and commitment by Government at a time of unprecedented pressure on finances,  I can't see how it won't be subject to reconsideration, even if the answer is a resounding decision to carry on.

 

It appears to me that you are looking too short term and have forgotten about how Government spending aids the economy!

 

Has anyone forgotten how the Marshall plan rebuilt a shattered Europe and prior to that the NewDeal in the USA!

[friscopete]

9 minutes ago, Mark Saunders said:

 

It appears to me that you are looking too short term and have forgotten about how Government spending aids the economy!

 

Has anyone forgotten how the Marshall plan rebuilt a shattered Europe and prior to that the NewDeal in the USA!

Got a feeling thew Government has spent the next 20 years worth already  to aid the economy .If you want HS2 to aid the future economy I would buy 2 million shovels and give them out to the fit and healthy unemployed  left and tell them to start digging .Maybe a canal would be easier and cheaper .

[black and decker boy]

All significant construction projects now have ecologists on call to check for birds, reptiles and other protected species, make sure planning obligations and statutory licenses are followed and discharged.

 

its a blossoming business.

 

The norm would be to have the chainsaw gang on hand so the minute a tree or woodland is given the all clear, it ceases to exist and ceases to be a risk.

[John Tomlinson]

41 minutes ago, Mark Saunders said:

 

It appears to me that you are looking too short term and have forgotten about how Government spending aids the economy!

 

Has anyone forgotten how the Marshall plan rebuilt a shattered Europe and prior to that the NewDeal in the USA!

No, you still aren't reading what I said.

 

I'm not arguing that HS2 should be cut or that it shouldn't, simply that is quite likely to be reconsidered. That is an observation and a prediction of process, not a discussion of the merits or demerits of the project.

 

Government spending may aid the economy, it may not. In any case, it has to be prioritised. To say that Government spending per se is a good thing is as ridiculous as saying it isn't, and that everything should be left to the private sector. If large amounts of Government spending financed by printing money result in massive inflation, that in itself can be a very bad thing, remember the '70's here, or as Lantavian says in extremis Venezuala, or Zimbabwe, or Wiemar Germany and the resulting rise of Fascism. To simply say that we're in circumstances like the Great Depression (New Deal) or post WW2 (Marshall) is a bit simplistic, not least because we'll need to be a lot further down the track to know precisely what we're facing at the end of it.

 

If you want to speculate as to optimal Government policy in a highly uncertain future, then please do and have fun. As I said, if you have any special insights Mr. Sunak will be delighted to hear from you!

 

John.

 

 

[Mark Saunders]

50 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

 

Yes, just ask Venezuela.

 

An economy almost entirely dependant on oil, which is all good when the price is high!

[Mark Saunders]

if the whole world takes the wait and see approach, then every thing will stagnate. 

 

The future is planned today!

[D826]

I believe Government will consider delivery of key infrastructure and other construction projects assume even greater significance in stimulating the economy. 

 

It's going to need exactly the sort of stimulus that HS2 is just one part of.  Certainly the importance of a project I am involved in, (not HS2), has already been restated by Government.  

 

Provision of alternatives to air travel, which also increase capacity elsewhere in public transport ie WCML - are important components in UK Plc being able to meet stated national climate change targets.  

 

None of us knows for certain - we will all see in time.

 

Best regards

 

Matt W

[The Stationmaster]

4 hours ago, runs as required said:

Dr B-Ching in yesterday's Private Eye

I thought this relevant here for integrated through running, fares and timetabling as it gets up and running , but full version posted in the Covid-19 - The silver lining (Positives!).

Stay safe

dh (DNR)

The sale of paper network wide timetables declined massively a long time ago.  I believe that in final BR days there were more gratuity copies used internally than were ever sold to members of the public.  They were a pain to keep up to date and errors from failure to pick up every little alteration inevitably resulted in passengers being given incorrect information leading to both angst and complaints.  Now we all have the information we need at our fingertips on our keyboards or various mobile devices and provided the databases are kept upto date that information is accurate at the time we consult it.

 

Many (most?) operators produce route oriented pocket timetables and these can be useful for most travellers who want one.  But want they don't want to have to hump around with them is train times for every mainline and tinpot branchline in the entitre country.   Just as Bradshaw's went out of fashion (a long while ago) so has the whole network printed timetable - and not just in Britain.

[Allegheny1600]

1 hour ago, Mark Saunders said:

 

An economy almost entirely dependant on oil, which is all good when the price is high!

Not only is the Venezuelan economy based upon oil, it is also subject to MASSIVE interference from the USA (they want the oil for themselves) AND massive corruption at home.

 

I'm only pointing this OFF TOPIC information out, to show how irrelevant it is to compare Britain to Venezuela. 

Back on topic - it was really good to see C. Packham's spoiling tactics thrown out!

[Northmoor]

54 minutes ago, Allegheny1600 said:

Not only is the Venezuelan economy based upon oil, it is also subject to MASSIVE interference from the USA (they want the oil for themselves) AND massive corruption at home.

 

I'm only pointing this OFF TOPIC information out, to show how irrelevant it is to compare Britain to Venezuela. 

Back on topic - it was really good to see C. Packham's spoiling tactics thrown out!

Every government that has made an absolute "hind-quarters" of running their economy blames outsiders and it's usually America.  Having more oil reserves than every other country on earth yet still having to ration things like toilet roll suggests something is seriously wrong with your government.

[billbedford]

2 hours ago, John Tomlinson said:

If large amounts of Government spending financed by printing money result in massive inflation, that in itself can be a very bad thing, remember the '70's here, or as Lantavian says in extremis Venezuala, or Zimbabwe, or Wiemar Germany and the resulting rise of Fascism.

 

But all western government have printing money for the last 12 years or so. OK they've called it Quantitative Easing, but it's the same thing. Despite what those with debts had hoped it has had no effect whatsoever on inflation. 

 

As for inflation in Germany, that was the Wiemar government's policy to screw the French and not have to pay the reparations from WW1. 

[Northmoor]

2 minutes ago, billbedford said:

 

But all western government have printing money for the last 12 years or so. OK they've called it Quantitative Easing, but it's the same thing. Despite what those with debts had hoped it has had no effect whatsoever on inflation. 

 

As for inflation in Germany, that was the Wiemar government's policy to screw the French and not have to pay the reparations from WW1. 

I would argue it has had huge effects on inflation, it's just not inflating the things that are part of the inflation calculations (RPI, CPI etc.).  Asset prices have been inflated to ridiculous levels; until the last couple of weeks share prices were becoming very over-valued and property prices, well, we all know how they have moved in relation to earnings (and in cities, how much has been the effect of speculation and not a need for residence).

Effectively, Western governments have subsidised the borrowing of money to gamble.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Northmoor

[runs as required]

44 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

The sale of paper network wide timetables declined massively a long time ago.  I believe that in final BR days there were more gratuity copies used internally than were ever sold to members of the public.  They were a pain to keep up to date and errors from failure to pick up every little alteration inevitably resulted in passengers being given incorrect information leading to both angst and complaints.  Now we all have the information we need at our fingertips on our keyboards or various mobile devices and provided the databases are kept upto date that information is accurate at the time we consult it.

Agree completely.

The bulky (all for50p !) doorstop wasn't the point of the post. Whoever Dr B-Ching is (I bet you know) was making the point that the whole chaotic Merry-go-round of Franchising could implode economically as an outcome of Covid-19 if we wish. - without the need of 'buy outs'. 

It surely would mak e sense if the new line plus its extensions could be fully integrated with a national network  from the traffic controllers' viewpoint with easily understandable interconnections and fare structures on our phones (via free apps) from the customers' passengers' side.

dh (DNR)

 

PS

One of my favourite bedtime reading tomes is the reprint of Cooks Continental timetable for 1914 - try Liverpool Central to Kampala via Brindisi

[runs as required]

Apropos posts above my last one: 

Can anyone explain clearly to this O.F. how Germany was economically able to progress from total despair, humiliation and near Soviet revolution, via Weimar, then total collapse of the Mark, to re-armament and military and apparent technical European supremacy by 1938 (Peace in our Time).

 

Obviously politically there was previously unimaginable totalitarian bullying and ruthlessness. However, economically it seems to me to have been achieved  within 5 years, neither by Austerity, nor by New Deal/Keynesian alternatives.

dh (DNR)

[Joseph_Pestell]

35 minutes ago, billbedford said:

 

But all western government have printing money for the last 12 years or so. OK they've called it Quantitative Easing, but it's the same thing. Despite what those with debts had hoped it has had no effect whatsoever on inflation. 

 

As for inflation in Germany, that was the Wiemar government's policy to screw the French and not have to pay the reparations from WW1. 

 

Pedant mode on. In this country at least, it is not the Govt that does QE, it is the central bank. Since 1997, the Bank of England has been independent of the Government.

[Phil Parker]

Isn't the truth that those in favour of HS2 are still in favour of it and will see a useful economic stimulus.

 

Those against it will use any excuse as a reason it should be killed off.

[jonny777]

8 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

Packham fails (unless they decide to appeal the appeal....)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/03/hs2-ancient-wood-clearance-go-ahead-chris-packham-legal-bid-fails

 

 

None of the photographs, I have seen in the press, have shown 'ancient' woodland. Any trees with trunks less than about 18 inches in diameter are likely to be 50 years old at the most, and they were all like that in images I saw. 

[Zomboid]

"Ancient woodland" isn't anything to do with the age of the trees, it's about how long that place has been woodland.

[62613]

4 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

Yes, just ask Venezuela.

Ridiculous answer, and nothing to do with what went before. You're saying the New Deal and for that matter the Nazi's investment plan in Germany were failures?

 

[Trog]

2 hours ago, billbedford said:

 

As for inflation in Germany, that was the Wiemar government's policy to screw the French and not have to pay the reparations from WW1. 

 

How the reparations had to be paid in gold or hard currency? 

[62613]

2 hours ago, billbedford said:

 

But all western government have printing money for the last 12 years or so. OK they've called it Quantitative Easing, but it's the same thing. Despite what those with debts had hoped it has had no effect whatsoever on inflation. 

 

Except on the stock market. A large part of the previous £445 billion QE ended up in the hands of financial institutions.

 

 

2 hours ago, billbedford said:

 

As for inflation in Germany, that was the Wiemar government's policy to screw the French and not have to pay the reparations from WW1. 

Yep!