HS2

[Mark Saunders]

2 hours ago, Northmoor said:

Every government that has made an absolute "hind-quarters" of running their economy blames outsiders and it's usually America.  Having more oil reserves than every other country on earth yet still having to ration things like toilet roll suggests something is seriously wrong with your government.

 

The great toilet roll shortage of 2020 will be remembered for years to come!

[lmsforever]

Maybe all this misfortune will make people realise that they should  look after each other at least many are being kind .There will be a long hard recovery and many companies wont make it  through which will be sad for workers and owners alike .

[phil-b259]

It strikes me that far too many folk are deluding themselves as to what 'will' happen when the Pandemic is over and life returns to normal.

 

For every person who finds working from home an absolute breeze - there will be another who is desperate for it to end - coping with interruptions from kids, lack of space for a home office, intrusion of business tasks into home life.

 

Fundamentally people are social animals - its hardwired into our brains to seek out others. Whats more science tells us that we don't just use speech to communicate - body language, dress sense, body odours / Pheromones (most of which you don't consciously notice) are all involved when it comes to communication. Phones / videoconferencing apps are all very well , but part of the reason text haven't consigned the practice of going 'into the office' to the dustbin of history decades ago is the way they don't seem as satisfying as physically coming into contact with people.

 

Yes the schools shutdown and the inability to go out makes it harder - BUT in some ways thats a good thing because it provides a stress test as it were. If you can cope under current conditions then you are unlikely to have problems in future - but if you cannot cope then what are you going to be like every summer in ordinary times when the kids are at home for weeks on end while you are trying to work?

 

Also, as we have seen there an awful lot of jobs that cannot be done from sitting at home (just consider how many different occupations are considered 'essential workers' in the crisis for example) - and thats before we get to various manufacturing / logistics business which have had to shut down during the current Pandemic.

 

It should also be noted that even before the Pandemic hit, even though season ticket sales (usually used by office bound commuters) were declining, the actual numbers of passengers travelling by rail was going UP not down.

 

In other words more people were travelling - just not in the traditional 9-5 commuting manor.

 

I quite accept that things will probably 'not be as they were before' - but its equally stupid to assume that the need for travel will evaporate overnight and that Covid-19 will have somehow magically solved all infrastructure problems such that HS2 is not needed.

 

As such I see no need to ditch phase 1, particularly as that portion is targeted at the most congested section of the WCML, a situation that is extremely unlikely to be changed in the long term by the current Pandemic. Subsequent phases may need to be reconsidered - but by the time comes for them to pass through the legislative process we will have dealt with Covid-19 and thus have a better idea of how travel demands are recovering.

[Mike Storey]

The (wishful??) thinking of those who predict the demise of HS2 (and other big ticket items) ignores the difference between operational funding and capital funding.

 

Operational funding (which simply keeps the country, society and the economy running) has no asset value, and is therefore supported (or not!!) at the whim of the government in power. The means to do that vary between fiscal and monetary levers. At present, the risk of inflation is so low, that QE seems to be an admirable way to counter the loss of economic activity, but borrowing will have to increase as well.

 

Capital funding does have asset value creation, and is therefore much more attractive to lenders. Think about why Mr Trump, the arch non-Keynsian, is proposing a $2 trillion infrastructure scheme as Phase 4. It ain't rocket science, unless some of it is spent on a Space Force, of course.

 

[The Stationmaster]

4 hours ago, Trog said:

 

How the reparations had to be paid in gold or hard currency? 

Going wildly OT the reparations were paid in various different ways and using all sorts of different things - one pertinent example was railway engines which had to be given tp French and Belgian companies to make up for stock lost due to the effects of the war.  Raw materials for building were also included as well as timber, coal and agricultural machinery - basically Germany was ordered to pay a massive sum in gold which it was simply unable to meet so reparations in goods and materials were accepted in lieu of gold.

 

The French got more than a little upset by Germany's failure to pay cash for civilian compensation which led to France occupying the Rhineland in 1921 and it was subsequently fully demilitarised.  Hitler ordered German troops to march in to reoccupy the Rhineland in 1935 when Germany cancelled the military clauses of the Treaty of Versailles

[Pandora]

10 hours ago, Trog said:

 

How the reparations had to be paid in gold or hard currency? 

The Germans had to donate coal to Europe,  the effect of free coal had  serious consequences  for the British Coal Industry

[Pandora]

On 28/03/2020 at 16:50, lmsforever said:

We will have to wait and see what the situation in the country is the NHS will take priority and all the money paid out to businesses and people will take a great deal from the reserves. Therefore 2021 is going to be a year of cost counting and working out howto get GB working, exports will take precedence and industries that provide for the needs of the population  A  ..great many people will have no experience of true austerity nearly akin to rationing and will find life a great deal harder.They will doubtless take to twitter and complain but the aftermath of this crisis will take a long time for the good time to come back.This not fiction it will be fact those of us who lived through the forties and early fifties find now very similar.Stay safe and indoors.

How many are aware?  The public interventions such as "stay at home" emergency powers of varying degrees of strength, are to be used every 3 months for the remainder of 2020 and all of 2021 and beyond,  By late 2021 either a vaccine may be available or enough hospital  beds to treat  patients.  Read page 12 figure 4 of the pdf attched to this post,  The Report by Imperial is the main advisor for rthe Govt

 

Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Edited April 5, 2020 by Pandora

[John Tomlinson]

5 hours ago, Pandora said:

How many are aware?  The public interventions such as "stay at home" emergency powers of varying degrees of strength, are to be used every 3 months for the remainder of 2020 and all of 2021 and beyond,  By late 2021 either a vaccine may be available or enough hospital  beds to treat  patients.  Read page 12 figure 4 of the pdf attched to this post,  The Report by Imperial is the main advisor for rthe Govt

 

Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf 759.57 kB · 8 downloads

The Emergency Powers are, looked at from the standpoint of normal times, indeed quite scary.

 

This isn't really much to do with HS2, but I suspect that Powers or not, the longer this goes on for the less compliance there will be, and as a number of senior police officers have pointed out, policing in Britain is by consent. Apparently there were largish public gatherings in both Lambeth and Brighton yesterday, flouting the rules (no doubt others as well), and my bet is that a further toughening such as "no leaving the home for exercise" will simply lead to the great British two fingers on a wide scale. Then we really would be in trouble.

 

John.

[JeffP]

Hmmm, if any country in Europe does civil disobedience, it's France. And yet, they are not doing so.

 

Why should the UK be any different?

[Joseph_Pestell]

4 minutes ago, JeffP said:

Hmmm, if any country in Europe does civil disobedience, it's France. And yet, they are not doing so.

 

Why should the UK be any different?

 

If there's one thing that characterises the French more than civil disobedience, it is hypochondria.

 

E-mailed with English friends living in Southern France a couple of days ago. Apparently the lockdown not that severe in country areas. They are still able to get building supplies, so can carry on working.

 

Similarly, Jamie reports elsewhere here that their local street market is back on.

[jjb1970]

6 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

Venezuela is an example of how governments can get hooked on spending, and let it get out of control.

 

My answer was "Yes, just ask Venezuela."  I didn't say anything about the New Deal.

 

And for that matter, the Nazis' investment plan in Germany was a success in creating an economy whose purpose was to fight wars, but nothing else. The boom was an illusion. My views on this are influenced by a book by the Cambridge economic historian, Adam Tooze, called The Wages of Destruction

 

https://www.amazon.com/Wages-Destruction-Making-Breaking-Economy/dp/0143113208

 

 

 

Even in a strictly military sense German economic success was shallow and rather brittle. Germany re-armed in breadth but not depth and based assumptions on short sharp wars (such as the invasions of Poland and France) and developing an impressive capability as a diplomatic tool. When they miscalculated and triggered a truly world war in 1941 their war production was woefully unable to meet the demands placed on it. Even before 1941 their war production struggled and the Luftwaffe was ill equipped for the Battle of Britain partly as a result of deliberate choice in developing a tactical air force with no real strategic capability but also they were still trying to replace heavy losses. We tend to remember the campaign in the West (including Norway) as a catastrophe and an easy German victory but the German air force and navy took very heavy losses. Even after Albert Speer's reorganisation they struggled. 

[John Tomlinson]

5 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

If there's one thing that characterises the French more than civil disobedience, it is hypochondria.

 

E-mailed with English friends living in Southern France a couple of days ago. Apparently the lockdown not that severe in country areas. They are still able to get building supplies, so can carry on working.

 

Similarly, Jamie reports elsewhere here that their local street market is back on.

We had a very similar report back from friends living in the rural southwest of France. Locking down a big city such as Paris ought in theory to be a bit simpler than a tiny number of police patrolling a large rural area. As far as the UK goes, my point was simply that in at least two reported places, people have gone out into the sunshine regardless, and logic suggests as time goes on and frustration builds this will increase. To be clear, I wasn't saying I approve at all, but I do think that the Government is going to have to set out an exit strategy sooner rather than later, for morale purposes at least.

 

John.

[pete_mcfarlane]

36 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

 

Even in a strictly military sense German economic success was shallow and rather brittle. Germany re-armed in breadth but not depth and based assumptions on short sharp wars (such as the invasions of Poland and France) and developing an impressive capability as a diplomatic tool. 

A classic example is their use of horses. I seem to recall that they bought up large number of ex-British Army horses (via Irish dealers) in the years before WW2 to expand their logistics arm as part of their overall military expansion. The horses were redundant because we'd replaced them with lorries. 

[Fat Controller]

18 hours ago, Zomboid said:

"Ancient woodland" isn't anything to do with the age of the trees, it's about how long that place has been woodland.

My late mother-in-law used to refer to what we call 'Ancient Woodland' as 'wild trees', in contrast to the 'domesticated' ones planted by the Forestry Commission and others.

[corneliuslundie]

The definition of ancient woodland has nothing to do with the age of the trees. It is based on when maps were produced showing woodland, about 400 years ago for Eng;land (and Wales I think) and slightly later for Scotland and Ireland. Most ancient woodlands have been managed for centuries, often by coppicing or by pollarding, usually with a selection of standing trees left. Timber has been a valuable resource for centuries, and many ancient woods were actually managed by organisations such as iron works and others which required timber for fuel, You don't destroy your source by chopping them all down at once, But as a result many trees in ancient woodlands are relatively young and much the same age, and unfortunately a "one age" wood does not last well as it is difficult for saplings to grow. They need active management if they are to thrive.

See for example "Rainforests of Britain and Ireland - a traveller's guide" by Clifton Bain (Sandstone Press, 2015).

Jonathan

[Ohmisterporter]

13 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

Going wildly OT the reparations were paid in various different ways and using all sorts of different things - one pertinent example was railway engines which had to be given tp French and Belgian companies to make up for stock lost due to the effects of the war.  Raw materials for building were also included as well as timber, coal and agricultural machinery - basically Germany was ordered to pay a massive sum in gold which it was simply unable to meet so reparations in goods and materials were accepted in lieu of gold.

 

 

When the German army occupied France they charged the French government the equivalent of one billion dollars per day to cover the costs of occupation. No doubt the other occupied countries were similarly charged. Paying your enslavers to enslave you in effect.

 

We seem to have wandered way off topic though.

[black and decker boy]

4 minutes ago, Ohmisterporter said:

 

When the German army occupied France they charged the French government the equivalent of one billion dollars per day to cover the costs of occupation. No doubt the other occupied countries were similarly charged. Paying your enslavers to enslave you in effect.

 

We seem to have wandered way off topic though.

Sounds like the Glazier takeover of ManU.*

The club having to pay the debt used to buy them!

 

*other corporate takeovers are available 

[lmsforever]

Agreat many of the lorries we bought before ww2 were sadly left behind at Dunkirk  and many were rehabilitated by the Germans and used throughout the war.Also  the Germans looted entire factories etc and took them back home along with many items taken from homes ,a sad time.

[JeffP]

5 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

If there's one thing that characterises the French more than civil disobedience, it is hypochondria.

 

E-mailed with English friends living in Southern France a couple of days ago. Apparently the lockdown not that severe in country areas. They are still able to get building supplies, so can carry on working.

 

Similarly, Jamie reports elsewhere here that their local street market is back on.

Friends in South Western Limousin report it's very tight thrre with nothing open, random police patrols and fines.

30 miles from anywhere...

[Pandora]

The longer this goes on,  the changes will become long-term,  companies will figure out who are their key staff,  other staff will adapted to be working from home,  commuting numbers may fall, if 1 in 5 commuters into London Euston fall off the radar,  how can HS2 be justified as relieving a capacity shortfall for the WCMl,   it cannot!

[jjb1970]

A lot depends on what the world does to try and normalize money after this, we had already inflated asset prices beyond what is sensible under the accepted paradigm as organizations and people sought places to deposit their wealth other than cash in the bank. The system still hadn't recovered from 2008 with interest rates that made money very cheap and which were basically zero by historic norms.

However, major capital programs which will provide a lot of employment,  build skills and capabilities and improve national competitiveness are probably among the better things to prioritize in the short - mid term I think. 

Either way, with central banks having already expended their heavy guns (reducing interest rates to virtual zero and pumping money into the system) it will be interesting to see where we go next. I feel sorry for youngsters, we have all been borrowing against future generations for decades (even if few will admit it), this takes that to a whole new level.

[black and decker boy]

Private construction is highly likely to suffer when restrictions are lifted. 2 segments in particular:

 

1) House building for private sale. This was buoyant up until February this year but relies on consumer confidence and affordable mortgages. No matter the dire need for housing, it’s likely that confidence will be diminished for a period, many will be out of work, many will worry that restrictions (and so job insecurity) could return until such time as a mass vaccination programme is undertaken.
 

currently lenders have withdrawn many of their mortgage deals. How quickly the cheap, low deposit offers return is unknown. Banks don’t like risk.

 

2) Commercial office space. This has been buoyant But relies on private capital. Investments are likely to pause whilst the true long term effect of the world working remotely is assessed.

 

The housing sector is a huge employer. Any hope of keeping construction moving will.sit with public bodies. I would expect money to continue to flow into already announced schemes and those that are it will quickly be shovel ready.

 

cancelling schemes that are live and known to be supporting big numbers if employees will be very bad PR, bad for the economy and bad for long term U.K. plc

 

my own employer and my personal employment depend on the government following this path but it is a path that has been followed in recent economic slowdowns.

[RJS1977]

4 hours ago, lmsforever said:

Agreat many of the lorries we bought before ww2 were sadly left behind at Dunkirk  and many were rehabilitated by the Germans and used throughout the war.

 

Not to mention several 'Dean Goods' - one of which wound up in Russia!

[caradoc]

1 hour ago, Pandora said:

The longer this goes on,  the changes will become long-term,  companies will figure out who are their key staff,  other staff will adapted to be working from home,  commuting numbers may fall, if 1 in 5 commuters into London Euston fall off the radar,  how can HS2 be justified as relieving a capacity shortfall for the WCMl,   it cannot!

 

Nobody knows what will happen post-virus, but not every passenger on the WCML is a commuter, and not every train is a passenger train. I've not been on a train for over two weeks now, unheard of since I left school, so as soon as lockdown ends I will be contributing to the passenger numbers !

 

[Siberian Snooper]

20 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

Nobody knows what will happen post-virus, but not every passenger on the WCML is a commuter, and not every train is a passenger train. I've not been on a train for over two weeks now, unheard of since I left school, so as soon as lockdown ends I will be contributing to the passenger numbers !

 

 

And me!! Not to mention a visit to the pub.