HS2

[Northmoor]

1 hour ago, Pandora said:

The longer this goes on,  the changes will become long-term,  companies will figure out who are their key staff,  other staff will adapted to be working from home,  commuting numbers may fall, if 1 in 5 commuters into London Euston fall off the radar,  how can HS2 be justified as relieving a capacity shortfall for the WCMl,   it cannot!

Where do people get the idea that companies employ lots of people in offices for fun?  While there are lots of reports of people "successfully working from home", I look forward to some of their employers assessments of productivity after a few months.  Remember how many of those writing about working from home are paid to, err, write while working from home.  The proportion of retail employees who don't work in a shop, warehouse or lorry, are pretty small.  Armed forces, emergency services, manufacturers; none can work from home.  All those people will still need to travel to work.

 

Financial services is one industry that is assumed could work partly from home, because people only seem to be sitting in offices looking at a screen.  But can you imagine the security controls required if 75% of staff in banks, insurance or investment companies were accessing and processing personal data using a laptop on their kitchen table?  Implementing firewalls on the IT is the easy part; knowing who might be looking over the shoulder of a junior member of staff in a flatshare would be almost impossible to police.  Many years ago I stayed with a friend whose father was a regional manager for Midland Bank.  I was told very firmly NOT to get up and go downstairs in the morning until I knew others were up and about.  If I'd set off the alarm, it would be assumed the householders were being targeted and there would have been armed police surrounding the house very quickly.  If more people worked from home that sort of thing would need to be routine and the costs would be eye-watering.

[jjb1970]

One of the biggest negatives of home working is not having the free exchange of views, experience and knowledge. Yes, we have videoconferencing etc but it's not the same. Maybe it's just me but I have learned an awful lot over the years from peers, those above me and those below me. I anticipate I will be offered the freedom to work from home 1 or 2 days a week (assuming my employer survives and still wants me) but the nature of what I do demands a lot of f2f meetings. 

[96701]

Okay, people have spoken about all sorts of likely scenario, but what has this got to do with HS2? If people want an existentialist discussion as to what will happen when this particular pandemic ends, can you please set up a different thread?

[Mark Saunders]

If working from home was such a brilliant thing it would be more widespread!

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, Pandora said:

The longer this goes on,  the changes will become long-term,  companies will figure out who are their key staff,  other staff will adapted to be working from home,  commuting numbers may fall, if 1 in 5 commuters into London Euston fall off the radar,  how can HS2 be justified as relieving a capacity shortfall for the WCMl,   it cannot!

 

If working from home becomes the norm, there are a few interesting changes to be made:

 

Insurance companies will want commercial cover for the in house office.

Those doing it will find that domestic broadband has a 2-week fix SLA. If you want it faster, pony up for business broadband.

Councils will want business rates on the house office.

People will need bigger houses to accommodate the house office.

Businesses will need to consider H&S. At work, you are provided with a suitable chair and desk. At home? Will firms be willing to pay for off-site furniture?

 

Basically, WFH shifts the costs from the business to the employee. That might be OK for a short period, but long term?

 

Also, HS2 is a long-term project. You are anticipating demand many years in the future, not a few months. If WFH was so great and going to kill the commuter market, I'd expect it to have done so by now. After all, some of us have been doing it for years!

[jjb1970]

13 minutes ago, 96701 said:

Okay, people have spoken about all sorts of likely scenario, but what has this got to do with HS2? If people want an existentialist discussion as to what will happen when this particular pandemic ends, can you please set up a different thread?

 

I think probable wholesale adjustments to financial planning assumptions and measures to try and restore government finances are germane to the discussion about HS2.

[Northmoor]

3 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

Also, HS2 is a long-term project. You are anticipating demand many years in the future, not a few months. If WFH was so great and going to kill the commuter market, I'd expect it to have done so by now. After all, some of us have been doing it for years!

Indeed, apologies to 96701 but this DOES concern HS2, since there seems to be an assumption - from those looking for reasons why HS2 wont't or shouldn't be completed - that this pandemic will change our society so fundamentally to remove the need for HS2.

For as long as I've been alive learned people have been predicting, usually after the invention of a "game-changer" like video-conferencing, that virtually everyone would soon work from home and have almost infinite leisure time.  After 40 years I'm still waiting for the latter.....

[96701]

3 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

 

I think probable wholesale adjustments to financial planning assumptions and measures to try and restore government finances are germane to the discussion about HS2.

Fine, but with no crystal ball, all the pontifications on future scenario merely sounds like news hounds spouting stuff to fill some space. What does this have to do with HS2 as a project? It will either happen or it won't. Nobody knows at this stage.

 

[jjb1970]

3 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

Indeed, apologies to 96701 but this DOES concern HS2, since there seems to be an assumption - from those looking for reasons why HS2 wont't or shouldn't be completed - that this pandemic will change our society so fundamentally to remove the need for HS2.

For as long as I've been alive learned people have been predicting, usually after the invention of a "game-changer" like video-conferencing, that virtually everyone would soon work from home and have almost infinite leisure time.  After 40 years I'm still waiting for the latter.....

 

Bit like the hydrogen economy and nuclear fusion. 

[jjb1970]

1 minute ago, 96701 said:

Fine, but with no crystal ball, all the pontifications on future scenario merely sounds like news hounds spouting stuff to fill some space. What does this have to do with HS2 as a project? It will either happen or it won't. Nobody knows at this stage.

 

 

No, but it's possible to anticipate arguments and possible scenarios with respect to the future. 

[pete_mcfarlane]

43 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

One of the biggest negatives of home working is not having the free exchange of views, experience and knowledge. Yes, we have videoconferencing etc but it's not the same. Maybe it's just me but I have learned an awful lot over the years from peers, those above me and those below me. I anticipate I will be offered the freedom to work from home 1 or 2 days a week (assuming my employer survives and still wants me) but the nature of what I do demands a lot of f2f meetings. 

Not to mention being able to wander over to those people who never reply to emails.  Not being able to do that seems to be slowing things down quite a lot.

[Mark Saunders]

19 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

 

Bit like the hydrogen economy and nuclear fusion. 

 

and the paperless office!

[Zomboid]

I can see a modest increase in home working after all this is over, but not a huge change. I'm very lucky to have a room to set myself up in (and it's still a severely compromised arrangement), but many of my colleagues are trying to work on the kitchen table or in their bedroom with no table at all.

Realistically I could handle one day a week of WFH, but most simply don't have the facilities in their homes, never mind the fact that many workplaces are built very much on human interactions which cannot be replaced with WhatsApp.

[runs as required]

4 hours ago, 96701 said:

Fine, but with no crystal ball, all the pontifications on future scenario merely sounds like news hounds spouting stuff to fill some space. What does this have to do with HS2 as a project? It will either happen or it won't. Nobody knows at this stage.

 

I think such pontifications on future scenarios are vital for keeping up morale in lockdowns. 

In WWII I can remember clearest my Grandad, a post worker at Mt Pleasant just north of St Pauls not coming home for many nights while on Fire Watch. Between action 'pontification on future scenarios' was how they spent boring hours of waiting.  

Dad too had the task of keeping badly-burnt airmen' spirits and hopes up while waiting weeks between skin grafts.

Again 'pontification on future scenarios' was a favourite pastime. I still have my 1940s PuffinBooks with optimistic crystal ball visions of the future. 

My six pennorth on HS2: is that it will be considered 'shovel ready' to go ahead - but maybe shorn of the Central London and Brum portions. So that (like after WW II)  the Property Developers.will swing into post-panD action adjacent to Euston to offset costs - Remember how Property Development enabled the Ludgate Hill rail overbridge/Holborn Viaduct terminus line  to be 'undergrounded' . There will more uses than simply offices that will be competing for the land flanking Euston.

And West Midlands Integrated Transportation will get heavy investment - along with rail rather than road linkages northwards. 

dh

[Edwin_m]

6 hours ago, runs as required said:

My six pennorth on HS2: is that it will be considered 'shovel ready' to go ahead - but maybe shorn of the Central London and Brum portions.

Very bad outcome in my view.  Stations on the outskirts of cities encourage access by car and also make it difficult for incoming visitors (who would be bringing prosperity to an area).  Also providing the city centre stations helps keep the existing centres prosperous and means people can use the existing public transport, which can be enhanced incrementally rather than building brand new links.  

[jamie92208]

I strongly suspect that Euston will go ahead. The land has been bought and mostly cleared. The TBM's will be nearly ready and mainly paid for along with the rest of the tunnelling  supply chain. They might end up with more commercial drvelopment above the new tracks at Euston but that won't effect the railway.

 

Jamie

Edited April 6, 2020 by jamie92208

[runs as required]

21 minutes ago, Edwin_m said:

Very bad outcome in my view.  Stations on the outskirts of cities encourage access by car and also make it difficult for incoming visitors (who would be bringing prosperity to an area).  Also providing the city centre stations helps keep the existing centres prosperous and means people can use the existing public transport, which can be enhanced incrementally rather than building brand new links.  

Existing public transport in West Midlands cannot be described as integrated in the way London has been fortunate to have survived since Deregulation. Were I Mayor, it would be my highest priority.

Car parking has always so far been regulated by charges. In my view car use should be regulated by metering and monthly d.d, based on roads used.

 

[Siberian Snooper]

3 minutes ago, runs as required said:

Existing public transport in West Midlands cannot be described as integrated in the way London has been fortunate to have survived since Deregulation. Were I Mayor, it would be my highest priority.

Car parking has always so far been regulated by charges. In my view car use should be regulated by metering and monthly d.d, based on roads used.

 

 

The tram system is to extend to Curzon street and will probably be there before HS2 opens. They certainly seem to be shifting along with the extension to Edgebaston.

 

 

[Zomboid]

We went over the idea of not building Euston a few pages ago.

Essentially both London stations are needed to give onward connectivity and to spread the load onto the tube, buses and Crossrail in a manner that stands a chance of not swamping them.

 

I don't recall any similar discussions about Birmingham, but the Birmingham interchange station is a suburban park & ride that's sort of near to Birmingham International after a ride on a people mover. It's no substitute for a city centre station.

 

A more appropriate criticism to my mind would be that many of the major cities are served by terminal branch lines. I would have tried to have more through stations on the route, particularly the city centre stations in Manchester and Leeds, so the Scotland and Newcastle services could call there on the way. But the design is what it is for good reasons.

[caradoc]

14 hours ago, Northmoor said:

 

Financial services is one industry that is assumed could work partly from home, because people only seem to be sitting in offices looking at a screen.  But can you imagine the security controls required if 75% of staff in banks, insurance or investment companies were accessing and processing personal data using a laptop on their kitchen table?  Implementing firewalls on the IT is the easy part; knowing who might be looking over the shoulder of a junior member of staff in a flatshare would be almost impossible to police.  Many years ago I stayed with a friend whose father was a regional manager for Midland Bank.  I was told very firmly NOT to get up and go downstairs in the morning until I knew others were up and about.  If I'd set off the alarm, it would be assumed the householders were being targeted and there would have been armed police surrounding the house very quickly.  If more people worked from home that sort of thing would need to be routine and the costs would be eye-watering.

 

A very valid point; My son works in a car insurance call centre, so in theory could work from home, but the security restrictions in place (eg no mobile phone to hand while working, no paper records to be kept), make this impossible.

 

And surely, discussing whether changing work patterns may impact on the need for HS2 is relevant in a topic about HS2 ?

 

[Matt C]

14 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

 

No, but it's possible to anticipate arguments and possible scenarios with respect to the future. 

B#&&€r  left me crystal ball at work   

[Mark Saunders]

3 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

 

The establishment thought that there would be no need for mass high-speed rail travel as video conferencing would make business trips superfluous......

 

 

It was a bit like Concorde being a joint project and both governments wanted to abandon the project on grounds of cost but neither wanted to be seen to cancel it! 

 

source of above from Dennis Healey's memoirs.

[Matt C]

Just now, Lantavian said:

 

Can't you log-in to your crystal ball from your PC at home?

 

 

Meh its firewalled  and as the cleaner has been furloughed its covered in dust. . . "I see a very misty future" 

 

I reckon HS2 will go ahead as planned, although the overall cost looks high, as mentioned MANY times in this thread the costs will actually be spread over the length of the project, it will be ready to go as soon as the lockdown is lifted, give a boost to the construction industry and give Bojo a headline project " getting the country working again"   to shout about.

Also pushing the theme of moving jobs away from London, freeing up routes for more freight  by rail etc etc

Plus cancelling would give ammunition to those who like to sling rocks 

[Fat Controller]

1 minute ago, Lantavian said:

I was reading the Railway Executive's Report of the Committee on Types of Motive Power, published in 1951, and was amused to find that one form of competition to rail that the authors expected was fast inter-city helicopters.

 

https://www.railwaysarchive.co.uk/docsummary.php?docID=374

 

 

The Fairey Rotodyne?

[corneliuslundie]

I understand that there was briefly in the 1930s a regular helicopter service between various destinations in Wales. And of course the "Automobile Palace" in Llandrindod Wells still has aeroplanes advertised as one of the products, firmly set in the parapet of the building. For sale to local farmers I believe.

Jonathan