Hornby's financial updates to the Stock Market

[bigherb]

Yes, I note they also won't publish links to the independent model shop websites.

Did you bother to actually look, certainly web links are published.

 

Edited March 4, 2016 by bigherb

[PCW]

Did you bother to actually look, certainly web links are published.

Yes I looked and didn't see them for the few shops I frequent, so presumably the list published must be incomplete. Sorry I didn't browse through all the pages of shops and so didn't come across the ones who do have links published.

[Mike at C&M]

The website and e-mail links are certainly not there for our shop, despite having definitely been there in times past.

 

Following a problem with our e-mail during 2015, it took them 5 months to re-instate us on to their trade e-mail listing, so I don't hold out much hope of getting the e-mail/website links re-instated in a hurry.

[RJS1977]

@ Caledonian, isn't that a heck of an assumption that sales are going to be geographical by nature.

 

I live in Peterborough and work in York but my 'affliction' is all things GWR, There is a Southern enthusiast in Retford (where my train has come to a halt as I write) and there are no doubt modellers of Scottish region areas on the South coast. How can you identify that? Sales will, by the nature of our world, be spread to all four points of the compass.

 

I suspect there is  probably some regional bias, though not an absolute one. For example, I suspect the H&P liveried Peckett may well sell better in the Reading area than the Manchester Ship Canal one and vice versa.

 

Maybe there ought to be some sort of umbrella organisation for independent model shops so Waltons of Altrincham can ring up Alton Model Shop.

 

"Hey, Alton - it's Waltons.You got any of those MSC Pecketts left? They're selling like hot cakes up here and I'm running out."

"Not selling so many here, Waltons. How are you off for H&Ps? We're getting through them like nobody's business."

"Still plenty left up here, Alton."

"OK, I'll do you a swap."

 

Now, I know the logistics of swapping locos around like that would take some sorting out, but with traders and clubs attending shows around the country on a regular basis, I'm sure something could be sorted out.

 

Likewise, maybe if a group of independent retailers could put an order in together, they might be able to command the same sort of discounts Hattons does.

[Caledonian]

@ Caledonian, isn't that a heck of an assumption that sales are going to be geographical by nature.

 

I live in Peterborough and work in York but my 'affliction' is all things GWR, There is a Southern enthusiast in Retford (where my train has come to a halt as I write) and there are no doubt modellers of Scottish region areas on the South coast. How can you identify that? Sales will, by the nature of our world, be spread to all four points of the compass.

 

Not really, as I said you will always get modellers who want to do something different, and I will cheerfully confess to possessing a GWR pannier and some wagons, and a King Arthur and a couple of Maunsells, but the fact remains that round this area the Eastern stuff sells very well and the Great Western piles up on the discounted shelf. My point is that I would expect an independent retailer to order in what he knows his clientele will buy, while the Hornby concessions apparently take what they're given without regard to regional preferences. 

[Ian Hargrave]

Not really, as I said you will always get modellers who want to do something different, and I will cheerfully confess to possessing a GWR pannier and some wagons, and a King Arthur and a couple of Maunsells, but the fact remains that round this area the Eastern stuff sells very well and the Great Western piles up on the discounted shelf. My point is that I would expect an independent retailer to order in what he knows his clientele will buy, while the Hornby concessions apparently take what they're given without regard to regional preferences.

 

Given the situation that retailers are struggling with both sales and supply at this moment in time,I would think this to be an unrealistic expectation.They are in business to make a decent living and cannot be expected to respond to a whimsical clientele in every respect,

In any case,retailers are few in number .Many of us don't have that option.

[The Stationmaster]

I suspect there is  probably some regional bias, though not an absolute one. For example, I suspect the H&P liveried Peckett may well sell better in the Reading area than the Manchester Ship Canal one and vice versa.

 

Maybe there ought to be some sort of umbrella organisation for independent model shops so Waltons of Altrincham can ring up Alton Model Shop.

 

"Hey, Alton - it's Waltons.You got any of those MSC Pecketts left? They're selling like hot cakes up here and I'm running out."

"Not selling so many here, Waltons. How are you off for H&Ps? We're getting through them like nobody's business."

"Still plenty left up here, Alton."

"OK, I'll do you a swap."

 

Now, I know the logistics of swapping locos around like that would take some sorting out, but with traders and clubs attending shows around the country on a regular basis, I'm sure something could be sorted out.

 

Likewise, maybe if a group of independent retailers could put an order in together, they might be able to command the same sort of discounts Hattons does.

 

Back in the days when Hattons were deep discounting there were definitely instances of other retailers buying from them to either supplement their own stocks or to obtain something otherwise out of stock that was wanted for a customer order.  Incidentally it was always said - seemingly quite rightly - that Hattons did not get any additional trade discount, they got (and still get so I understand) exactly the same trade terms as any other retailer but with a  large, efficiently run, warehouse they were able to apply a very different trading model thus they discounted very deeply and relied on volume to get the money in - sometimes for example selling a loco for only a  couple of £s more than the trade price - and it seemed to have worked very well for them.

[Horsetan]

.... About as user friendly as picking up a Yellow Pages to find an R186....

"Good ol' Yellow Pages. We're not just here for the nice things in life...."

[RJS1977]

"Good ol' Yellow Pages. We're not just here for the nice things in life...."

 

Wasn't it "We're not just here for the bad thing in life - like a blocked drain or a broken window - we're here for the nice things too"?

[antrobuscp]

 My point is that I would expect an independent retailer to order in what he knows his clientele will buy, while the Hornby concessions apparently take what they're given without regard to regional preferences. 

Derrr - don't Hornby know what they've sold through their own individual outlets and tailor their stock distribution accordingly? Or maybe they don't - which should be another nail in management's coffin. Or maybe they didn't and their new systems will tell them. So much we don't know.

 

Colin

[Willie Whizz]

I would have thought responsible management will be negotiating with banks and producing business plans to ensure this day does not arrive. The departure of Richard Ames will have been part of this, after all a business plan put together by someone who managed them into this position is not really credible. I think Roger Canham is a completely different proposition. So I really believe that they will avoid this doomsday scenario. I hope so for the employees, but also for us enthusiasts. Anyone in any doubt that we need Hornby should have a look at the Bachmann new announcements thread.

 

Also worth mentioning that the Directors of any Company which continues trading when they knew (or ought to have known) that it was insolvent (i.e. unable to meet its debts as and when they fall due) can personally find themselves in "deep doo-doo"; i.e. there is a point beyond which they cannot shelter behind the normal 'Limited Liability' of the Company that they (and their shareholders) enjoy.  Therefore, if they see clearly the game is indeed up, the Directors themselves have a legal duty (as well as a moral obligation to the Company's creditors) to pull the plug at that point, even if the Bank doesn't force their hand.

 

'Second the Motion' that we all hope such a scenario doesn't come to pass.

[Black 5 Bear]

I would have thought responsible management will be negotiating with banks and producing business plans to ensure this day does not arrive. The departure of Richard Ames will have been part of this, after all a business plan put together by someone who managed them into this position is not really credible. I think Roger Canham is a completely different proposition. So I really believe that they will avoid this doomsday scenario. I hope so for the employees, but also for us enthusiasts. Anyone in any doubt that we need Hornby should have a look at the Bachmann new announcements thread.

Spot on post, we really need Hornby to weather this storm and come out the other side.

Having just seen the Bachmann releases, there's very little of interest for me as I do not

model the NSE. The only items I will buy for definate, are the Stanier 5MT and the Sulzer 24(1)

when that appears.

Edited March 5, 2016 by Black 5 Bear

[Guest]

Wasn't it "We're not just here for the bad thing in life - like a blocked drain or a broken window - we're here for the nice things too"?

These days it's much easier.

 

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fly-Fishing-Memories-Angling-Days/dp/4871876896

[Oldddudders]

Wasn't it "We're not just here for the bad thing in life - like a blocked drain or a broken window - we're here for the nice things too"?

Never, ever, spoil a good story for the sake of the truth!

[Oldddudders]

Spot on post, we really need Hornby to weather this storm and come out the other side.

Having just seen the Bachmann releases, there's very little of interest for me as I do not

model the NSE. The only items I will buy for definate, are the Stanier 5MT and the Sulzer 24(1)

when that appears.

I felt the Blue Box Empire announcement was one of consolidation and catchup, with only a modest set of truly new items. This kinda gives Hornby time to breathe - the floor will not be wiped with their name while they get their breath back.

[Caledonian]

Derrr - don't Hornby know what they've sold through their own individual outlets and tailor their stock distribution accordingly? Or maybe they don't - which should be another nail in management's coffin. Or maybe they didn't and their new systems will tell them. So much we don't know.

 

Colin

 

Precisely my point: Given the amount of unsold Great Western stuff piled up in Newcastle they are obviously not tailoring their stock distribution.

 

Conversely of course we've had this silly business of manufacturing equal numbers of suburban coaches despite everybody at this end of the food chain knowing that for some trains all you need is a brake composite and that for bigger trains you need a brake composite at each end. Instead we find a world shortage of brake composites and Hornby effectively saying they're fed up telling people there's no demand.

[RJS1977]

It's easy to miscalculate demand for coaches - a friend who runs a well-known firm manufacturing brass kits told me that when he first started out, he realised he could fir three coaches on to one etch - so he did a brake, a composite and a restaurant car. Of course, he wound up with loads of restaurant cars left over! He never made that mistake again!

[The Stationmaster]

Spot on post, we really need Hornby to weather this storm and come out the other side.

Having just seen the Bachmann releases, there's very little of interest for me as I do not

model the NSE. The only items I will buy for definate, are the Stanier 5MT and the Sulzer 24(1)

when that appears.

 

But that applies all the time surely.  One manufacturer or commissioner or another makes something we do want while the others don't - or they all happen to make something we want at the same time (which can be embarassing of course.  This year - provided it appears - I will be buying mainly Hornby r-t-r items, one I want might appear from Bachmann while something else might appear from Kernow and something else might appear from Dapol.  Next year it could be completely different, just as it has been in the past.

[ruggedpeak]

Precisely my point: Given the amount of unsold Great Western stuff piled up in Newcastle they are obviously not tailoring their stock distribution.

 

Conversely of course we've had this silly business of manufacturing equal numbers of suburban coaches despite everybody at this end of the food chain knowing that for some trains all you need is a brake composite and that for bigger trains you need a brake composite at each end. Instead we find a world shortage of brake composites and Hornby effectively saying they're fed up telling people there's no demand.

It's easy to miscalculate demand for coaches - a friend who runs a well-known firm manufacturing brass kits told me that when he first started out, he realised he could fir three coaches on to one etch - so he did a brake, a composite and a restaurant car. Of course, he wound up with loads of restaurant cars left over! He never made that mistake again!

Coaches must be a nightmare, as Hornby's recent discounted packs have shown. Take the Arriva mk3's, the 3 standard coaches are still available yet the restaurant car is not. And the DVT's are rare but the 67's not. How do you predict the right number to make? How many people like me will want to buy a full set and only a full set (and in my case only if discounted significantly) versus those who may only buy one or two, and if they what do they buy? One standard and one restaurant or two standards? Or one standard?

 

On indie shops getting together, this has been tried in many other sectors. Unfortunately it requires time and cash to set up and operate and today's margins preclude it being viable in my view for most stores. However a decent real as against digital sales force could fulfil some of this function.

 

On Hornby and their profits, their much vaunted ERP was supposed to help with some of this. More concerning is the marketing and sales process. To be blunt their entire process, based on what we see and hear in the public domain is not up to scratch. They have damaged existing channels and clearly achieved little as a result. I have no time for social media like Twitter and Facebook personally or commercially. They can build brand awareness but it is entirely ephemeral and is wasted money unless you do it continually. Hornby have gone up a blind alley at large cost for little visible gain IMHO.

 

I give 2 examples. When I had a web retail and distribution business there was only one communication medium that had a dramatic and sustainable as well as highly cost effective impact on sales - TV. Forget websites, paid adverts etc, TV is it. Proper guerilla tv marketing, old school marketing like Mr Kohler writes about still works far better than this digital stuff when it comes to the bottom line of selling models. I had great TV benefits like giving product to sponsor SARDA dogs who were featured on BBC news, big lift in sales. Even better the Gadget Show called me for product to test to destruction. Our product won this against competitors on the Show and for £25 I got national TV coverage. And get this, ITV's ad revenue growth recently has been mainly web companies. Yes, the mighty web co's like Google, EBay, Amazon and Netflix are having to pay for TV ads to compete in the Internet sector. Quite telling in my view.

 

One question, what was the Hornby presence at Kings Cross for the Scotsman run? Given they have a warehouse full of Scotsman models (including discounted Corgi models) surely they'd have a stall or stand or something to capitalise on it? If not why not? TV cameras everywhere and surely a Hornby banner could have been snuck in somewhere or attached to a line side fence at a key point? Apologies if this was done but I saw no Hornby marketing in the Scotsman coverage. I fear the marketing department thinks sitting in front of a PC screen is more effective than actually meeting punters and retailers and filling hire vans with stock and promo material and touting them around the country. As the results are showing, its doesn't seem to be working.

 

Edited for bizarre iPad predictive text nonsense. Never had that problem with Stone Age carvings!

Edited March 5, 2016 by ruggedpeak

[Black 5 Bear]

But that applies all the time surely.  One manufacturer or commissioner or another makes something we do want while the others don't - or they all happen to make something we want at the same time (which can be embarassing of course.  This year - provided it appears - I will be buying mainly Hornby r-t-r items, one I want might appear from Bachmann while something else might appear from Kernow and something else might appear from Dapol.  Next year it could be completely different, just as it has been in the past.

Mike,

That is my own personal obsevation and opinion as regards Bachmann's NSE theme for 2016. Judging by comments from others who participate on these posts it is a shared view. The same would apply if Hornby or any other manufacturer adopted the same theme, I wouldn't be purchasing anything because that period is of no interest to me.

Anyway, let's just hope that Hornby do survive and bring us the products that we have come to expect.

[antrobuscp]

I have to agree that the question of how many coaches of differing types - 2nd/3rd, compo, brake compo/2nd/3rd, etc - to produce is far from straight forward. We may know how to make up a set or train, but many will not. How each of us tackles the restricted space induced compression of train lengths will vary, and I (think I) remember seeing many suburban trains that did not conform to the brakes at the ends rule. The only real answer to the question would be historical buying patterns, but these would have to be amended to some extent with the change to a more discerning market(the kids market would not really worry too much about train formation), or to types materially affected by the make up of fixed train sets - as on the SR. Here again, feedback from the retail sector has the potential to be invaluable if the historical sales info is not available in house.

[Coryton]

(the kids market would not really worry too much about train formation), or to types materially affected by the make up of fixed train sets -

 

There were some comments earlier about not underestimating kids, and to follow that up, I can assure you that there are children who consider it important that a passenger train has a brake coach. 

[Oakydoke]

With the discussion on the a Bachmann Blue Pullman thread revolving around increasing prices and the future cost of RTR models, I wonder how Hornby's future pricing is going to look if a recovery plan requires increases in the profit margin, on top of the other price rise pressures being brought to bear on the manufacturers.

Both Hornby and Bachmann operate in the continental European marketplace, as well as in the UK domestic market.

With Bachmann having to move their UK prices upwards to be more in line with their Lililiput "European" ranges, will Hornby decide in favour of a similar course of action to make their own UK product lines more profitable?

[Black 5 Bear]

From what numerous Hornby retailers have told me. If an item is ordered by a customer, then the pre-order price at the time of the order is honoured.

In the future however, who knows what will happen...

Edited March 5, 2016 by Black 5 Bear

[ruggedpeak]

There were some comments earlier about not underestimating kids, and to follow that up, I can assure you that there are children who consider it important that a passenger train has a brake coach. 

Question is are there enough of them to sustain a business? And how best do Hornby reach them?