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Hornby 2018 Announcements


cal.n

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But when they sell direct, every one gets hot under the collar about them not supporting local shops ( before we all go off and browse the special offer sections of Hattons)

If Hornby isn’t on the high street, then where is it ?

Hornby.com I doubt is it’s largest sales outlet.

 

The high street might be online, but it’s a retail network that supplies Hornby with most of its custom, it might be a shrinking presence but it’s still the high street.

 

I think If Hornby moved to a “pre-paid” model it will fail massively. Very few retailers have tens of thousands of pounds in spare cash, to be able to up front pay for 50-100 locos up front in cash, upto 2 years in advance of arrival, plus a years supply of track, wagons, controllers, scenery, paint, scalectrix etc etc etc... with no guaranteed delivery date or even price guarantee... i’d Be fascinated to hear from some of the retailers on here, if they feel they could subscribe to this model ?

 

The alternative is to dump the track, scenery, humbrol, scalectrix, European HO ranges (which are probably more profitable), AND dump all its UK retailer network, to go wholly online and sell direct to the public on a pre-pay, no guaranteed delivery date, maybe no price guarantee model..

 

Put it another way, on Jan 8th.. work out the value of everything you want, at full RRP, then work out if you can afford to card it all on Jan 9th and sit back wait until jan 2020 for everything to arrive... then x10 that and think about the retailer.

 

To me it’s a non starter.

 

It might work for the collectors club, but not the Full size company Hornby is today, and the parts it would need to cut to support that, imho are the most profitable parts... track, scenery, bits, paint, wagons, coaches etc.

 

Food for thought... Peco.. didn’t move to China, knows what’s most profitable and hasn’t ventured out of that profitable space in 40 years.. if locos and coaches make most.. then Peco could have wandered further..but I guess they know best and their P&L reflects it... and they are a high street retail (now online retailer) dependant too. I’m sure if they felt they could cut out the high street retailers and sell exclusive via their own website they would, but I suspect they too know it’d never work.

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If Hornby isn’t on the high street, then where is it ?

Hornby.com I doubt is it’s largest sales outlet.

 

The high street might be online, but it’s a retail network that supplies Hornby with most of its custom, it might be a shrinking presence but it’s still the high street.

 

I think If Hornby moved to a “pre-paid” model it will fail massively. Very few retailers have tens of thousands of pounds in spare cash, to be able to up front pay for 50-100 locos up front in cash, upto 2 years in advance of arrival, plus a years supply of track, wagons, controllers, scenery, paint, scalectrix etc etc etc... with no guaranteed delivery date or even price guarantee... i’d Be fascinated to hear from some of the retailers on here, if they feel they could subscribe to this model ?

 

The alternative is to dump the track, scenery, humbrol, scalectrix, European HO ranges (which are probably more profitable), AND dump all its UK retailer network, to go wholly online and sell direct to the public on a pre-pay, no guaranteed delivery date, maybe no price guarantee model..

 

Put it another way, on Jan 8th.. work out the value of everything you want, at full RRP, then work out if you can afford to card it all on Jan 9th and sit back wait until jan 2020 for everything to arrive... then x10 that and think about the retailer.

 

To me it’s a non starter.

 

It might work for the collectors club, but not the Full size company Hornby is today, and the parts it would need to cut to support that, imho are the most profitable parts... track, scenery, bits, paint, wagons, coaches etc.

 

You are right in your assumption, we  certainly would  not. Who in their right mind would?

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Can't see it myself. Only one engine in the class and only one possible livery. Lol

You mean, just like Thomas?

 

  

...I think If Hornby moved to a “pre-paid” model it will fail massively. Very few retailers have tens of thousands of pounds in spare cash, to be able to up front pay for 50-100 locos up front in cash, upto 2 years in advance of arrival, plus a years supply of track, wagons, controllers, scenery, paint, scalectrix etc etc etc... with no guaranteed delivery date or even price guarantee... i’d Be fascinated to hear from some of the retailers on here, if they feel they could subscribe to this model ?

The alternative is to dump the track, scenery, humbrol, scalectrix, European HO ranges (which are probably more profitable), AND dump all its UK retailer network, to go wholly online and sell direct to the public on a pre-pay, no guaranteed delivery date, maybe no price guarantee model...

But the “lean and mean” crowdfunding model is direct to customer, not the ‘middleman’ model shops. I don’t see the problem in Hornby or Bachmann givin* the crowdfunding approach a try, especially for some of the more tangential offerings requested on this forum. Maybe then we would see the real level of interest in the Fell Diesel, for example!

 

Phil

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Amazon ain't on the high street........

Amazon locker ;-) technically is, now if you said ebay... but then that’s delivered to your off licence or Argos too ;-)

 

 

I have speculated in the past if it would be feasible to produce a limited edition, sold exclusively through an ebay auction, where by the highest bidders got the lowest certificate number and hence increment down the list as 2nd chance offers and sell the rest as buy it now, with best offers.

 

When you see stats like 23 sold next to a blue western, that’s £10 cheaper on the stores website than ebays, you have to wonder..

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Dapol-OO-4D-003-009-CLASS-52-WESTERN-CAVALIER-BR-BLUE-DIESEL-LOCO-D1021-NEW/192313584429?epid=1033975166&hash=item2cc6c86b2d:g:yfkAAOSwHqRZxM2C

 

Would this work ? - we’ll your giving 15% away to ebay and PayPal, but with word of mouth marketing and no retail space overhead your costs are reduced to near nil.

 

The high street is digital, but only for the collectibles, for the mundane, you need a shop... whilst the real high street might be dead, but a takeaway and an off-licence will always remain.

 

The road to hell is paved with good intention.

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Manufacture to pre-order is the norm in the US market and seems to work well enough for companies like Rapido. Direct sales is something else but I suspect the market for specialised goods will increasingly move towards on-line sales and once people are accustomed to ordering on-line then why not order direct from a manufacturer? Hornby's newer competitors such as Hatton, Kernow and the crowdfunders apply a direct sales model and few complain. The argument against is that the manufacturer ends up carrying all the inventory but if combined with manufacture to pre-order the warehouse effectively receives goods and then just dispatches them to the consumer so stock shouldn't dwell in the warehouse for more than a few days. I'm not saying I want it, I am not really interested in crowd funding, pre-ordering etc but if the market goes that way it's hard to see a future for the more traditional business model.

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Manufacture to pre-order is the norm in the US market and seems to work well enough for companies like Rapido. Direct sales is something else but I suspect the market for specialised goods will increasingly move towards on-line sales and once people are accustomed to ordering on-line then why not order direct from a manufacturer? Hornby's newer competitors such as Hatton, Kernow and the crowdfunders apply a direct sales model and few complain. The argument against is that the manufacturer ends up carrying all the inventory but if combined with manufacture to pre-order the warehouse effectively receives goods and then just dispatches them to the consumer so stock shouldn't dwell in the warehouse for more than a few days. I'm not saying I want it, I am not really interested in crowd funding, pre-ordering etc but if the market goes that way it's hard to see a future for the more traditional business model.

 

I suspect that is the way the market is heading - more niche models and higher prices meaning things are made to order and pre-ordered. But Hornby need to improve on the consistency of their delivery before that'll work for them. no more silly mistakes or livery errors!

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Amazon locker ;-) technically is, now if you said ebay... but then that’s delivered to your off licence or Argos too ;-)

 

 

I have speculated in the past if it would be feasible to produce a limited edition, sold exclusively through an ebay auction, where by the highest bidders got the lowest certificate number and hence increment down the list as 2nd chance offers and sell the rest as buy it now, with best offers.

 

When you see stats like 23 sold next to a blue western, that’s £10 cheaper on the stores website than ebays, you have to wonder..

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Dapol-OO-4D-003-009-CLASS-52-WESTERN-CAVALIER-BR-BLUE-DIESEL-LOCO-D1021-NEW/192313584429?epid=1033975166&hash=item2cc6c86b2d:g:yfkAAOSwHqRZxM2C

 

Would this work ? - we’ll your giving 15% away to ebay and PayPal, but with word of mouth marketing and no retail space overhead your costs are reduced to near nil.

 

The high street is digital, but only for the collectibles, for the mundane, you need a shop... whilst the real high street might be dead, but a takeaway and an off-licence will always remain.

 

The road to hell is paved with good intention.

And while you are at it, why not get the models posted direct to the purchaser from the factory, then you don't need any premises beyond what's needed to produce the CADs and take the orders.

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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I suspect that is the way the market is heading - more niche models and higher prices meaning things are made to order and pre-ordered. But Hornby need to improve on the consistency of their delivery before that'll work for them. no more silly mistakes or livery errors!

 

Indeed, it needs a high degree of trust. As things currently stand the only company I'd really have confidence in to pre-order up front is Rapids (or one of their partners like Revolution).

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And while you are at it, why not get the models posted direct to the purchaser from the factory, then you don't need any premises beyond what's needed to produce the CADs and take the orders.

 

John

Indeed, and they would too.. seen the queues at Kowloon post office many times :-)

Thing is how long before the Chinese manufacturer realises they can cut out everyone in the trade here in the UK... and just sell it direct themselves ?

 

I suspect 2018.. if new commissions from the UK dry up, they could well consider giving it a try, to keep the workforce and company going... candidates exist already, Shinedews got a glossy new English website http://www.shinedew.com since it’s ali-baba days, and this Chinese ebay retailers commissioned much scenery at bargain prices selling direct to the UK https://www.ebay.co.uk/sch/Collectables/1/m.html?_nkw=&_armrs=1&_ipg=&_from=&_ssn=wehonest_cn (just look at their feedback rating, and the mass variety of stuff they sell, I’ve bought several things from them).

 

Link the two together and you have an OEM in China with a direct sales route to the UK market...that to me is a bigger existential threat than independent retailers to Hornby, their cost base would be lower than everyone’s here.

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And while you are at it, why not get the models posted direct to the purchaser from the factory, then you don't need any premises beyond what's needed to produce the CADs and take the orders.

 

John

 

Because the manufacturers who consistently get everything correct are the ones who spend countless days/weeks every year IN China, checking that what they are getting is what they've asked for. If you cut out everyone from the manufacturing chain you'll be in the 'B-sets with B4 bogies" situation with every model. (CJL)

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Because the manufacturers who consistently get everything correct are the ones who spend countless days/weeks every year IN China, checking that what they are getting is what they've asked for. If you cut out everyone from the manufacturing chain you'll be in the 'B-sets with B4 bogies" situation with every model. (CJL)

Agreed, but in my 19 years travelling to/from Asia, I’ve found two things... one technology and education has massively increased in the last 5 years, especially in the 1990’s born generation, they are leaps ahead of their parents in skill and knowledge, and secondly everyone makes a mistake, but when motivated Chinese designers spend hours, learning to get it right, I’ve even seen massive difference between Chinese and Hong Kong designers, whom education approach and learning are different but the Chinese approach has overtaken them. The days of Pidgeon English and shouting louder to be understood are in the history book.

 

When you can buy 10 working streetlights for £10 looking like this..

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/10-x-OO-HO-gauge-Model-Railway-train-Lamp-posts-Led-street-light-Lamps-QF07/152051374637?hash=item2366f7da2d:g:1qwAAOSwq19XDNYZ

Why would I buy 1 for £10 in the UK ?

 

If they make a an 80% or so correct superdetailed 16ton mineral but with solid rather than disc wheels, but I can buy 10 of then for £50, why would I not want to ? Look at how well those £5 Hachette Mk1’s sold a few years back, much to the horror of UK Manufacturers.

 

Selling Price vs Quality vs Cost, it’s a trade off, China competes on price, Brits compete on Quality, but invariably cost always wins..otherwise nothing would be made in China.

 

As I said i think it’s an existential threat to the UK manufacturers, especially if one went pop and the Chinese company acquired their tooling and decided to start using them... if a previously issued superdetailed 4-6-0 turned up in the correct livery for £40 delivered DCC ready from China would you ignore it ? - I suspect many retailers would buy them and resell via their outlets also...

 

Example: anyone heard of Roewe...(w pronounced as a v) it’s the Chinese Rover car... it’s a good example of the learning curve here.. they started using Rover designs, and evolved their knowledge very well over time into a very technical profitable and advanced yet cost effective brand of exports leaving that initial Rover tech behind.., the part of that secret to success, Chinese management hiring the designers in the UK to work for them and transfer the knowledge eastwards.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roewe

 

Is it good for the hobbies future.. well it may change the way models are made and reduce the new superdetailed commissions, but equally the Brits being the adaptive creative types we are, I suspect a new industry in painted/printed 3D designs coming along filling every niche design, making use of the model components which could become simple commodity items from China... chassis, frames, bogies etc.

Edited by adb968008
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For a pre-grouping model to give a good commercial return to the manufacturer the loco in question would have to have survived well into B. R. days at least until 1960 and to cover as wide an area of operation as possible. Being preserved is also attractive to the manufacturer to widen the market therefore in Scottish terms there are 6 classes realistically to choose from.

 

That results in certain Caley and North British classes as the only commercial options.

 

Quite easy to work the classes out!

 

 

Not unless you want to include some SE&CR modellers!

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I would like to Hornby to bring out a Virgin class 87 and also re-release the Virgin mk3 DVT, possibly as a train pack.

OxfordRail are bringing out their loco hauled Mk3s in Virgin livery next year (FO, SO and RFM) so it would allow modellers to have a fully matching Virgin train (assuming OxfordRail use a matching Virgin red).

 

Mind you Hornby have a very poor track record when it comes to Virgin stock:

The new Virgin mk2e coaches were released without any First class ones!

Hornby didn't bother tooling the TGS in 1999 when the first full-length Hornby Virgin mk3s were released, resulting in a missing coach for many years until the Limby version.

The Limby Virgin TGS was released with smaller stripes and Virgin logo. It also didn't have the distinctive HST silver windows meaning it didn't match the other Hornby Virgin HST mk3s.

The Hornby Virgin DVT releases were all (incorrect) mk4s until they tooled the mk3 version recently. This model is now quite rare.

The high spec Hornby Virgin class 43 even came with livery errors that were not present on their older tooling models including the cheaper railroad model.

 

Perhaps 2018 can be the year modellers are finally able to buy an accurate (pre DMU/EMU) Virgin train complete with matching engines, coaches, DVT etc.

I definitely agree with your post, there ought to be a good dollop of lovely Virgin coming soon, but in fairness to Hornby, I don’t think there were many (any?!) First Class Mk2E coaches that worked for Virgin I’m afraid! Just a few odd ones in service with FGW and VSOE etc, quite a small pool by the early 2000s.

 

My Platform 5 books of the time show that the First Class Mk2s used by both Virgin West Coast and Virgin Cross Country were the Mk2F variety - so hopefully Bachmann will have something there in due course! :)

 

As a sidenote - crazy to think that the jazzy livery is now just over 20 years old! :O

 

Cheers,

James

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The possibility of a Chinese manufacturer cutting out the middle people and selling directly is something I've sometimes thought about. The real expertise on production is in China, the bit they may need to outsource to the UK is prototype R&D but that could be done if they decided it was worth a go. Especially if there is already good talent to entice with a good offer.

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Agreed, but in my 19 years travelling to/from Asia, I’ve found two things... one technology and education has massively increased in the last 5 years, especially in the 1990’s born generation, they are leaps ahead of their parents in skill and knowledge, and secondly everyone makes a mistake, but when motivated Chinese designers spend hours, learning to get it right, I’ve even seen massive difference between Chinese and Hong Kong designers, whom education approach and learning are different but the Chinese approach has overtaken them. The days of Pidgeon English and shouting louder to be understood are in the history book.

 

When you can buy 10 working streetlights for £10 looking like this..

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/10-x-OO-HO-gauge-Model-Railway-train-Lamp-posts-Led-street-light-Lamps-QF07/152051374637?hash=item2366f7da2d:g:1qwAAOSwq19XDNYZ

Why would I buy 1 for £10 in the UK ?

 

If they make a an 80% or so correct superdetailed 16ton mineral but with solid rather than disc wheels, but I can buy 10 of then for £50, why would I not want to ? Look at how well those £5 Hachette Mk1’s sold a few years back, much to the horror of UK Manufacturers.

 

Selling Price vs Quality vs Cost, it’s a trade off, China competes on price, Brits compete on Quality, but invariably cost always wins..otherwise nothing would be made in China.

 

As I said i think it’s an existential threat to the UK manufacturers, especially if one went pop and the Chinese company acquired their tooling and decided to start using them... if a previously issued superdetailed 4-6-0 turned up in the correct livery for £40 delivered DCC ready from China would you ignore it ? - I suspect many retailers would buy them and resell via their outlets also...

 

Example: anyone heard of Roewe...(w pronounced as a v) it’s the Chinese Rover car... it’s a good example of the learning curve here.. they started using Rover designs, and evolved their knowledge very well over time into a very technical profitable and advanced yet cost effective brand of exports leaving that initial Rover tech behind.., the part of that secret to success, Chinese management hiring the designers in the UK to work for them and transfer the knowledge eastwards.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roewe

 

Is it good for the hobbies future.. well it may change the way models are made and reduce the new superdetailed commissions, but equally the Brits being the adaptive creative types we are, I suspect a new industry in painted/printed 3D designs coming along filling every niche design, making use of the model components which could become simple commodity items from China... chassis, frames, bogies etc.

 

Well, I can only speak from what I'm told by the manufacturers themselves. Every one has a "If I hadn't been out there and caught it in time, we'd have had a big problem" story. We all know of the instances where that didn't happen. (CJL)

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Well, I can only speak from what I'm told by the manufacturers themselves. Every one has a "If I hadn't been out there and caught it in time, we'd have had a big problem" story. We all know of the instances where that didn't happen. (CJL)

I’m not doubting that’s happened but it’s a bit of a Mandy Rice Davies statement. They’re needing to justify to retailers and customers what value they add. If the manufacturer was literally adding nothing, why should the customers not go direct to the factory?

 

David

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While social media gives everyone a voice,  it has always puzzled me why people simply cannot accept that others with many years of experience in the model trade have forgotten more than most folk on here will ever learn.

If that were the case then companies like Hornby Dublo would never have gone bust, having so many years experience in the model trade.

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what is happening

The possibility of a Chinese manufacturer cutting out the middle people and selling directly is something I've sometimes thought about. The real expertise on production is in China, the bit they may need to outsource to the UK is prototype R&D but that could be done if they decided it was worth a go. Especially if there is already good talent to entice with a good offer.

 

However, in what, by world standards is a very small, specialised niche market, you also need people who know what makes it tick. That's difficult from thousands of miles away so you will always need people with fingers on the pulse.

 

You can get some idea from following on-line forums but you then have to sort out whether and how content may be disproportionately influenced by a few people with bees in their bonnets rather than representing more general attitudes, aspirations and requirements.

 

Look at it from the opposite direction; purchasers of UK model railway products are almost exclusively either UK residents or expats.  I don't know if there are any hobbies that are almost exclusively Chinese but, if there are, I couldn't see it being practical to stay up to date with how they function and continue to develop from the UK.    

 

John

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However, in what, by world standards is a very small, specialised niche market, you also need people who know what makes it tick. That's difficult from thousands of miles away so you will always need people with fingers on the pulse.

 

You can get some idea from following on-line forums but you then have to sort out whether and how content may be disproportionately influenced by a few people with bees in their bonnets rather than representing more general attitudes, aspirations and requirements.

 

Look at it from the opposite direction; purchasers of UK model railway products are almost exclusively either UK residents or expats.  I don't know if there are any hobbies that are almost exclusively Chinese but, if there are, I couldn't see it being practical to stay up to date with how they function and continue to develop from the UK.    

 

John

Quite so, but that would be relatively easy to address by employing somebody (probably on a pro-rata contract basis) to provide that knowledge and to identify obvious issues. Over time there is no reason why a Chinese manufacturer shouldn't develop sufficient expertise to be largely independent. The Chinese may need some guidance on what to produce and to avoid pitfalls associated with item specific details but that can probably be addresses by retaining an individual on a contract basis. If a Chinese manufacturer plays it well they could probably attract the right person from an existing producer.

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While social media gives everyone a voice,  it has always puzzled me why people simply cannot accept that others with many years of experience in the model trade have forgotten more than most folk on here will ever learn.

I think Legend has answered this, if it was a simply a case of Hornby having been doing this for decades and knowing more than most folk will ever learn then I wouldn't expect them to be in their current financial mess.

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You mean, just like Thomas?

 

   But the “lean and mean” crowdfunding model is direct to customer, not the ‘middleman’ model shops. I don’t see the problem in Hornby or Bachmann givin* the crowdfunding approach a try, especially for some of the more tangential offerings requested on this forum. Maybe then we would see the real level of interest in the Fell Diesel, for example!

 

Phil

 

But when we look at it there isn't really a vast amount of 'crowd funding' in the UK model raiiway nor is there all that much pre-payment.  Some of the 'independent commissioners' such as Kernow and Hattons don't even ask for deposits but basically bear the financial risk of the models they are developing while some, most notably the NRM, look for a pre-paid deposit on some items (is it still on only 'some?).  So generally although there have been relatively small crowd funding and deposit payment products announced the vast majority of the market is on a pre-order basis without financial commitment on the part of the purchasers and I can't really see any major change coming because as a market we are not used to pre-payment and may well resent losing (pitiful amounts of interest) or paying additional interest on credit should we indulge, or have to indulge in pre-payment.  At most all we might possibly see is wider application of a deposit with a pre-order but I do wonder if the wider market is even ready to accept that?

The possibility of a Chinese manufacturer cutting out the middle people and selling directly is something I've sometimes thought about. The real expertise on production is in China, the bit they may need to outsource to the UK is prototype R&D but that could be done if they decided it was worth a go. Especially if there is already good talent to entice with a good offer.

 

I'm not at all sure if we can see that happening.  There is no doubt that some Chinese factories have been keen to establish quite close business relationships with people in the UK but they have done that partly to keep their business going but also to gain a link with UK market knowledge and sources of information for model development.  Going 'solo' will rob them of those two sources and we've already seen what can happen where the feed of design and development information from the UK end has not been up to scratch notwithstanding allegedly extremely close relationships with the factory in China.

 

Poorer models at lower prices would no doubt capture some areas of the total market but without the 'informed' UK end they would find it difficult to get into and sustain product in the more upmarket areas where there is greater benefit from 'added value' - and that area, certainly for the time being, is where greater levels of profit lie.

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I think Legend has answered this, if it was a simply a case of Hornby having been doing this for decades and knowing more than most folk will ever learn then I wouldn't expect them to be in their current financial mess.

Isn’t that what PAMP is currently gambling on...

Bringing in a guy from a competitor, a consultant to the hobby and an exHornby guy out of retirement they are gambling that experience will pull them out of the mess.

 

Unfrtounately i’m A bit cynical, and I can’t help thinking every one in any job thinks “what’s in it for me”.. and two-three years down the road Oxford could benefit from taking possession of several Hornby toolings as its own, and a slimmed down Hornby is passed on by PAMP cutting its losses.

 

It could of course be the opposite, prices fall, quality goes up and Hornby sales triple, but i’m Not convinced their either, experience whilst a good thing doesn’t get any younger if the highest branches are the oldest, it constrains experience below from growing, and ultimately falls off the tree leaving a hole exposed.

 

In my mind PAMP wants a return having lost a considerable amount, to me it’s an all or nothing gamble with provision of experience and money to restructure the company and set on the right path in a quick fix path, at which point they will sell out their stake at a better value than it is today, leaving that exposed hole when the “experienced” get their cut of the payout.

 

I certainly feel concerned for the design team, they’ve made some very nice models in the last few years, but suddenly their recently gained hand of creativity has had new management, and the return of an old boss imposed on them... how do you feel if your old boss who ran the floor for 30 years before he retired, suddenly comes back and pushes you back to your old desk again ? .. (what did William Stanier do before the LMS?...)

 

I’m speculating a scenario here, but their The risk is the Chinese manufacturer whom you’ve collaborated with for years, who may see a truck arrive and take away those Hornby tools to the Oxford plant, leaving a big hole in the tool room, factory floor and order book may turn around to that miffed research team in the UK and say, do you want to work for us...

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