Hornby announcement 8th May

[Steamport Southport]

Fifteen Guinea train pack with Oliver Cromwell has already been announced.

 

http://www.hattons.co.uk/337746/Hornby_R3607_15_Guinea_Special_anniversary_train_pack_with_Class_7P_4_6_2_70013_Oliver_Cromwe/StockDetail.aspx

 

 

 

 

 

Jason

[robmcg]

Fifteen Guinea train pack with Oliver Cromwell has already been announced.

 

http://www.hattons.co.uk/337746/Hornby_R3607_15_Guinea_Special_anniversary_train_pack_with_Class_7P_4_6_2_70013_Oliver_Cromwe/StockDetail.aspx

 

 

 

 

 

Jason

 

Ah, I'll scratch that off the list then.   Thanks.    And I already have a 70013 so it's not a big deal.  I might re-number a suitable donor to 45110 for a picture though....   

Edited April 29, 2018 by robmcg

[Steamport Southport]

They could always do 44781 in The Virgin Soldiers condition.

 

http://www.disused-stations.org.uk/features/virgin_soldiers/index.shtml

 

 

 

Jason

[bart2day]

Anybody hoping for more steam announcements is just being greedy. There is plenty of that in the 2018 catalogue. It would be nice if us diesel/electric modellers got something special for a change.

[Devo63]

My bet is that Hornby have seen the success of RTR O gauge by the likes of Dapol and Heljan etc, and are going to jump on the band wagon. They have dusted off the drawings from the archives and will be re-introducing the Big-Big Train in time for Christmas (no year specified).

 

Dave R.

[Fenman]

My bet is that Hornby have seen the success of RTR O gauge by the likes of Dapol and Heljan etc, and are going to jump on the band wagon. They have dusted off the drawings from the archives and will be re-introducing the Big-Big Train in time for Christmas (no year specified).

...

I think Hornby has probably been considering this (anyone remember the 0 gauge Class 87 cab on display a few months back?).

 

They’ve experimented in N, which I imagine they’ve decided, for them, is too small a market with too much competition from other manufacturers and not enough profit potential (why else has nothing appeared since the Brighton Belle?).

 

As many have commented, they and their rivals are running low on potential big-selling subjects in 00. And the risk of duplication / competition from commissioners and new players seems to be getting higher.

 

A couple of (relatively) small players* have dipped their toes in the 0 gauge waters and seem to have found profits.

 

If I were Hornby, I’d be concerned at seeing Hattons getting in first with an A3 and A4. There’s a risk all Hornby’s traditional low-hanging fruit will be grabbed first by others.

 

I don’t think it’s the most likely thing to be announced on 8 May, but my guess is there’s a good chance we’ll see it at some point.

 

Paul

 

* I mean “small” in the U.K. market.

[MGR Hooper!]

I'm sure would make an excellent job of an 0-4-0 Sentinel in O gauge. Also something that will sell well and not carry much risk. The usual fast selling locos like the Class 08, Jinty, Panniers etc have already been picked up by the smarter companies.

 

However I still feel O gauge isn't Hornby's territory. They'll be a little more successful in N gauge and their first attempt was quite a comical choice. They could've chosen a better prototype and sold far more.

[Dan Griffin]

Hornby are to announce a merger with Morrisons?  seeing as Asda and Sainsburys are doing the same?

[Fenman]

I'm sure would make an excellent job of an 0-4-0 Sentinel in O gauge. Also something that will sell well and not carry much risk. The usual fast selling locos like the Class 08, Jinty, Panniers etc have already been picked up by the smarter companies.

 

However I still feel O gauge isn't Hornby's territory. They'll be a little more successful in N gauge and their first attempt was quite a comical choice. They could've chosen a better prototype and sold far more.

I think there are already enough good prospects in Hornby’s research file to work in 0: not just the Sentinel but the Peckett and J15, for instance.

 

But I also think they have some larger engines that would work well in 0, like the big 4-4-0s. The Schools would have a great presence, and Claud Hamiltons are just very pretty. That long-standing Hornby favourite the B12 was designed for the GER’s short turntables - so would thrive in 0 compared to space-hungry Pacifics.

 

Hornby also has any number of tank engines that would work well, along with their shorter pre-Grouping coaching stock.

 

I think N is problematic for two reasons: too much existing competition; and poor market performance (not just their own: have a look at the APT threads. The N gauge launched first and failed dismally to get enough crowdfunding; the 00 launched as an afterthought and is already greenlit for production. This for a model that is a *natural* for N gauge. Yet it failed in the market).

 

But your point that Hornby chose the wrong model for their N experiment strikes me as strange. The Brighton Belle worked in 00. It’s a long old beast that would seem logical for N. Yet it has sold disappointingly enough not to be followed-up.

 

So I guess my questions are what on earth would have been a better model for Hornby to try in N; and, after its failed experiment, and facing such intense competition in that gauge, why would they spend more money there?

 

Paul

[jjb1970]

On the attractiveness of N, I think it is perhaps more telling than the lack of any further interest from Hornby that Dapol seem to have moved away from N and are now much more active in OO and O. Dapol essentially re-invented themselves as a supplier of detailed models in N.

[Neil]

Royal wedding commemorative train set?

[Dunsignalling]

N seems to be a funny old market. It's much smaller than that for OO, and I gained an impression from past threads that it may be a little more price-sensitive, too.

 

I suspect that both factors may be rooted in it being a sector less dominated by collecting and more by people who actually run their models. That is to be expected, partly because it hasn't been around so long and partly because smaller models look less impressive in display cabinets.

 

There is also, across the hobby, a cohort of purchasers who judge value-for-money on the basis of pounds-per-inch, That is prejudicial to N, in which models don't cost appreciably less to produce than for OO but the costs have to be recovered over fewer sales.

 

Hornby is heavily entrenched in one scale and will not easily be shifted from it by a "toe-in-the-water" that probably didn't generate comparable returns, whilst Dapol have developed a successful base in O Gauge. Production slots in China are not unlimited and future decisions by both will be steered by the comparative returns to be realised from each one.

 

Wherever the roots of the problem lie, the difference in overall volumes may well mean that those who decide not to buy a particular model in N Gauge have far more effect on future product planning than they do in the larger r-t-r scales.

 

John

Edited April 30, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[Clearwater]

I’m puzzled why a move to a different scale with consequent high set up costs, more marketing etc etc would not be seen, and indeed turn out, as an extremely risky move. Rather like the suggestions, that they should just make X, adding a new scale is a panacea solution and does nothing to address the problems in the cost base.

[Oakydoke]

N or O

 

The answer is the sum of those letters. NO !

[Tim Hall]

To announce an announcement so far in advance, I'd be surprised if it was just to reveal new 00 stuff. A reorganisation, merger or major change in direction perhaps?

[Fenman]

I’m puzzled why a move to a different scale with consequent high set up costs, more marketing etc etc would not be seen, and indeed turn out, as an extremely risky move. Rather like the suggestions, that they should just make X, adding a new scale is a panacea solution and does nothing to address the problems in the cost base.

In some ways you are right, but I’d suggest Hornby’s overhead costs can’t easily be tackled - you simply can’t go from being a mini-corporation to a low-cost, one-man-band operation (I’d be grateful if anyone can tell me I’m wrong by pointing to a single example of such a successful transformation).

 

Their other costs (of production) seem to be largely in line with the rest of the market.

 

Meanwhile: everyone is running out of popular prototypes to model; prototypes that have been in Hornby’s catalogue for years, presumably giving steady profits, are being picked off by rivals; production runs are getting smaller (reducing the sales from which profits can be generated); profits are presumably being squeezed as market resistance to even higher prices seems to increase; new entrants to the market cut-out retailers to keep all profits themselves, but also increasing the pressure on Hornby to cap at roughly the same retail prices (but with Hornby getting a smaller share of the total profits).

 

I’d suggest Hornby is now in a place where it needs to do something pretty dramatic. So while I’d agree a new scale is high risk, the balance of risks now seems to me to be on the side of carrying on with business as usual.

 

I’m glad it’s not my business to run.

 

Paul

[Dunsignalling]

To announce an announcement so far in advance, I'd be surprised if it was just to reveal new 00 stuff. A reorganisation, merger or major change in direction perhaps?

I'm inclined to agree. However, if it was going to be something "strategic", rather than product announcements, would there be a need to create a sense of anticipation?

 

There was an intimation, at the time the 2018 programme was announced, that if things went well, other new items already under development might be brought forward.

 

For me, we've already had the major change in direction; dropping Thomas The Tank Engine. What we learn on 8th May could well be what will fill the production slots freed up by that. 

 

John

[Oakydoke]

World Cup merchandise.

 

1:76 scale models of gangs of Russian thugs attacking fans from 23 other national teams.

Mini plastic footballs, emblazoned with the flags of all 24 competing nations. Collect the full set.

Barbie sized Russian girls looking for western man dolls. Dressed in the national costumes of the Russian federation.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Oakydoke

[ThaneofFife]

not until

 

Hornby are to announce a merger with Morrisons?  seeing as Asda and Sainsburys are doing the same?

 

..........the merger might be confirmed by the parties but lets see whether that merger is actually approved first.  the effects on already squeezed suppliers and the reduction in consumer choice might influence the final yay or nay.

[jjb1970]

Royal wedding commemorative train set?

I almost clicked funny, but then had a dreadful feeling that you could be onto something given Hornby's past form for sinking their future into churning out muck and tat merchandise that goes down like a lead balloon, many a thing said in jest and all that........

[Ron Ron Ron]

Barrie sized Russian girls looking for western man dolls. Dressed in the national costumes of the Russian federation.

 

 

Who's Barrie ?

[Oakydoke]

Who's Barrie ?

Barbie's brother.

Diversity is all the rage this year, don'tcha know.

[Dunsignalling]

I’m puzzled why a move to a different scale with consequent high set up costs, more marketing etc etc would not be seen, and indeed turn out, as an extremely risky move. Rather like the suggestions, that they should just make X, adding a new scale is a panacea solution and does nothing to address the problems in the cost base.

But, to look at it from the other end, r-t-r O Gauge is self-evidently a growth area in which Hornby might, logically, see themselves taking a share without too much difficulty.

 

Not a panacea, but probably worth a toe-in-the-water as they did with the 5-Bel in N. If it doesn't go well, move on.

 

I could see, for instance, the M7 (or H) and pull-push set from the OO range selling pretty well if replicated in the larger scale. After all, the CAD work is done, and the loco chassis, in particular, might be done more simply for O.

 

John

Edited April 30, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

In some ways you are right, but I’d suggest Hornby’s overhead costs can’t easily be tackled - you simply can’t go from being a mini-corporation to a low-cost, one-man-band operation (I’d be grateful if anyone can tell me I’m wrong by pointing to a single example of such a successful transformation)...

Actually that's practically every successful business that's been around at least fifty years. These now do orders of magnitude more work per employee. I know an example but am not at liberty to name it . This was of 'Hornby scale'. Employed circa 400 in 2000. Now does more (manufacturing in the UK) business on just eleven. It needs a management prepared to make the hard decisions, one of which will be making all of themselves redundant as part of the transformation.

 

On the attractiveness of N, I think it is perhaps more telling than the lack of any further interest from Hornby that Dapol seem to have moved away from N and are now much more active in OO and O. Dapol essentially re-invented themselves as a supplier of detailed models in N.

 And that there has been a series of new (*to the UK) manufacturer entries to the UK RTR market in OO and O: DJM. Rapido*, Oxford, Hattons, Accurascale*. Let's assume they are in it to make a profit, they haven't produced N product. One wants to produce N products, but openly admitted it had to be bankrolled by successful OO releases. As for Hattons (and they are a manufacturer now) if they don't know what the UK customer is willing to shell out for, I will eat my proverbial hat, and no N product from that source.

[Fenman]

Actually that's practically every successful business that's been around at least fifty years. These now do orders of magnitude more work per employee. I know an example but am not at liberty to name it ...

Good to know there’s one, though otherwise I think you’re engaging in wild hyperbole: off the top of my head I can think of many big names that are still around after half a century, and I don’t think the corporate management structure at, say, Rolls Royce or Aviva is a mere fraction of what it used to be...

 

I thought all the research tells us that office workers are just a tiny percentage more productive than a century ago (after all that capital investment in IT!), because we’ve simply made more pointless work for ourselves producing PowerPoint presentations and status reports. Meanwhile the real productivity gains have been on the factory floor.

 

Paul