Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Gibbo675]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Perhaps they should consult the creator of Bitcoin.

Hi Joseph,

 

There is of course Universal Basic Income which is loosely discussed in this video:

 

 

Here is this one from a Jeff Taylor along similar lines:

 

 

Gibbo.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Gibbo675
Adding Link

[Andy Hayter]

7 hours ago, John Tomlinson said:

A question for you all - I've searched for an answer on NHS releases and so far failed, so maybe someone can help?

 

In the UK we know the strategy is to let the virus spread through the population until, as it were, it burns itself out by having no more hosts, or at least an inadequate density thereof. The idea is to do this in a structured way, in order to match the demand for treatment of the really sick to the capacity of the NHS to administer same. Having had the virus, it is thought highly probable, but perhaps not 100% certain, that one is thereafter immune, and also cease to be a carrier.

 

My question, to which there may not be an answer, is how do we know we've had the thing, if indeed we are amongst the fortunate to be barely aware or only moderately ill? Whilst the symptoms of a continuous cough and/or a high temperature are being widely publicised, they are not much different to the symptoms of many of the colds and flus that circulate anyway, and I for one would be hard pressed to know the difference. The reason it matters is that if we've had something else, we're still at risk and can be a carrier, whereas if we've had Covid-19 itself we should be in the clear for both.

 

Moreover we know that in the UK even with the priority being given to increasing testing, the capacity of this is unlikely to go much beyond NHS staff and those clearly seriously ill.

 

Any answers?

 

Many thanks,

 

John.

 

 

A good question John given the large number of shared symptoms but this table from

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-symptoms/a-52233885

gives an overview.

 

[John Tomlinson]

Thanks Andy, that is really, really helpful.

 

If Andy York reads this, I wonder if it would be worth "flagging" your post at the start of the thread for everyone's reference.

 

John.

[Gwiwer]

19 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

I don't think many will find it bearable to stick rigidly indoors for as long as requested by HMG but I reckon the UK public may rediscover how to exercise some old-fashioned common sense as a result of all this. 

Point 1. Agreed.  I hear rumblings of discontent already from colleagues living in tower / high-density blocks in some poorer and multicultural areas and we are still free to come and go as we please even if some businesses have (temporarily we hope) closed their doors.  And I hear grumblings from the elderly locally who rely on social interaction, for example day care centres and lunch clubs, to eat adequately and to stay sane rather than climbing the walls home alone.  

 

Point 2.  There is mixed evidence of this from recent shopping habits with some persistent offenders still hoarding and some shop staff being physically and verbally abused for enforcing quotas.  But there is hope.  There is strong push-back across social media (which is the finger points for the start of the panic buying) to prevent hoarding and suggestions - which have so far not been taken up (or possibly taken down very quickly by the media concerned) that I have seen - to name and shame.  

[Andy Hayter]

7 hours ago, John Tomlinson said:

The fact that we're being given "advice" rather than "instruction" suggests to me that there is, as Gwiwer says, a view that appealing to people's sense of public spiritedness is more likely to be effective than hard enforcement - if indeed this would be practicable - as one could envisage widespread dissent after a period.

 

Clearly the French government doesn't share this view, and it will be interesting to see how well both approaches fare in the coming days.

 

John.

 

Macron was pushed into a corner by the French psyche and the apparent continued belief that it was just bad flu.

2 weeks ago PSG play their international match behind closed doors while 15000+ fans celebrate the victory outside the stadium.

Last weekend, after an impassioned and reasoned plea to the French to take things seriously last Thursday (including closure of many shops, all restaurants, cafes etc. and all schools, colleges and universities shut as of yesterday.)  the Parisiens react and  celebrate the sunshine by en mass strolling by the Seine, through the parks etc..  [and probably across all of the big cities.

 

And the result of this belief in the bad flu concept?  The announcement this evening of the last 24 hour victim count - another 1097 identified with the virus and a further 27 death bringing the total to 175.  These draconian measures will not have an impact for another week at least.

[JSpencer]

On 16/03/2020 at 19:07, PenrithBeacon said:

Earlier there was a comment about the use of ibuprofen. It turns out that this is a controversial matter

 

Health experts criticise NHS advice to take ibuprofen for Covid-19

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/health-experts-criticise-nhs-advice-to-take-ibuprofen-for-covid-19?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard.

 

Take care!

 

Cheers

 

In France they are still saying on the news don't take it.  They are still alone in that regard though.

My advice to the UK is go into lock down now. The 1200 known cases probably correspond to 300,000 unknown ones. Italy has been in full lock down for over a week and still the numbers of new cases are getting bigger day by day. There hospitals have been in overdrive for weeks but increasing more cases still coming in. That is because it takes about 2 weeks to realise they have it and get tested.

 

The stupid thing is, most cases were air to air transmission. The gouvernments know this. A commuter train with 500 people in london will have 4 or 5 cases, again they know this. China shut down after 400, found 70000 more cases within two weeks (all infections before the shut down). Again what are they waiting for? A global shut down, kill it off in several weeks and reboot the economy.

[JSpencer]

6 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

And the result of this belief in the bad flu concept?  The announcement this evening of the last 24 hour victim count - another 1097 identified with the virus and a further 27 death bringing the total to 175.  These draconian measures will not have an impact for another week at least.

 

Looking at Italy and China. It will be a good 3-4 weeks.

[LBRJ]

A global shut down for a few weeks and then it all kicks off again late summer....thats not the best idea I have heard this week........

[Gwiwer]

Just now, JSpencer said:

Italy has been in full lock down for over a week and still the numbers of new cases are getting bigger day by day

 

Which to me suggests that lockdown does not work as a viral containment tool and only serves to damage the economy, mental health and maybe other problems.  

 

The UK testing regime is hitting those at most likelihood of presenting with the virus and therefore potentially obtaining a reasonably accurate statement of true infection.  The UK mortality rate remains extremely low when taken as a proportion of those known to be infected, those assumed by mathematical modelling to be infected and of the total population.  

 

 

[Reorte]

18 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

 

Which to me suggests that lockdown does not work as a viral containment tool and only serves to damage the economy, mental health and maybe other problems. 

5 days is apparently the average time for symptoms to show so we'd probably just start seeing if Italy's lockdown has any effect round about now. Looking at the numbers it may be slowing the rate of acceleration, hard to say for real.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Reorte

[Mike Storey]

23 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

 

Which to me suggests that lockdown does not work as a viral containment tool and only serves to damage the economy, mental health and maybe other problems.  

 

The UK testing regime is hitting those at most likelihood of presenting with the virus and therefore potentially obtaining a reasonably accurate statement of true infection.  The UK mortality rate remains extremely low when taken as a proportion of those known to be infected, those assumed by mathematical modelling to be infected and of the total population.  

 

 

 

Sorry Rick, but that just doesn't add up.

 

If the virus takes a week or more to take hold after initial infection, and people were still being infected up to a week ago, then the worst of the epidemic does not start until some weeks after the lockdown. But then, it should, as in China, peak out and then start to recede.

 

Therefore, the UK testing regime is NOT hitting those most likely having the virus. It is only testing those presenting symptoms at hospitals. The Chief Medical officer, along with most of the rest of the world, is crying out for more testing - of the contacts of those testing positive, of those in the greatest at risk areas, such as London, and of those at greatest risk due to age or health condition. Only then can anyone state what the true position is. The fact that there have been relatively few deaths in the UK thus far, is, probably, a false dawn.

 

The whole point of the most recent UK strategy is to try to slow down the rate of infection, whilst belatedly preparing the NHS for what is to come, and to try then to keep the peak infections below the peak capacity of the NHS to deal with it, through much more draconian measures.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Mike Storey

[RJS1977]

12 hours ago, tractionman said:

 

I wish there was wall-to-wall classic films or old sport on the TV (Freeview) at the moment, to occupy him and help him pass the time, rather than being drawn into the 24-hours news coverage which is just too alarming. 

 

 

Talking Pictures TV, Channel 81

[Andy Hayter]

31 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

 

Which to me suggests that lockdown does not work as a viral containment tool and only serves to damage the economy, mental health and maybe other problems.  

 

The UK testing regime is hitting those at most likelihood of presenting with the virus and therefore potentially obtaining a reasonably accurate statement of true infection.  The UK mortality rate remains extremely low when taken as a proportion of those known to be infected, those assumed by mathematical modelling to be infected and of the total population.  

 

 

 

The UK mortality rate is 71 in 1950 cases or around 3.5% of the identified cases.  Of all the UK cases 65 have recovered.  That leaves a good possibility that some of the 1814 active cases could add to the mortality statistics.  In fact around 20 cases are identified as serious.

 

 

Interpret the numbers as you will but that is not a low mortality rate in the context of this virus - average perhaps, but not low.

 

[RJS1977]

9 hours ago, Metr0Land said:

 

Mayor of London was on Sky News earlier (and maybe other outlets).  He's saying TfL looking to reduce tube frequencies to Saturday levels and then Sunday levels.  (Didn't specifically mention buses but inference is they'd be the same)

 

Interestingly if they run the entire Tube network to a Saturday timetable, the Kensington Olympia branch will go from six trains a day to one every 20 minutes!

 

(If it weren't for the fact it would be both inappropriate and wholly inadvisable to attempt a Full Network Tube Challenge - which to be recognised by Guinness has to be attempted Monday-Friday - I'd be tempted to have a go!).

Edited March 17, 2020 by RJS1977
Corrected typo

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

Here is a bit of trivia that is rather coincidental:

 

 St. Corona (“crown” in Latin) being buried in the city of Anzu since the 9th century. St. Corona was a Christian killed under Marcus Aurelius in 165 AD, and has been for centuries one of the patron saints of pandemics.

 

For those that don't know, Anzu is not too far from Venice.

 

Gibbo.

[jjb1970]

At the moment the mortality rate is a guess and it may remain so (albeit with a mathematical model to give credibility) as it seems the confirmed cases are the tip of an ice berg. 

[Gwiwer]

25 minutes ago, RJS1977 said:

 

Interestingly if they run the entire Tube network to a Saturday timetable, the Kensington Olympia branch will go from si trains a day to one every 20 minutes!

 

(If it weren't for the fact it would be both inappropriate and wholly inadvisable to attempt a Full Network Tube Challenge - which to be recognised by Guinness has to be attempted Monday-Friday - I'd be tempted to have a go!).

 

London Buses go to Saturday timetables across the board as of Monday morning.  In most cases the difference is slight (for example running every 12 minutes instead of every 10) and in a lot of cases there is no difference at all.  However a few routes only run Mondays to Fridays and will therefore be effectively suspended including the X68 Norwood - Russell Square express and 521 Waterloo - London Bridge.  The single-journey sole remaining "Mobility" bus 969 (no longer branded as such but a remnant of a large network of such routes before low floor buses became mandatory) Whitton - Roehampton only runs Tuesdays and Fridays and suspension will leave several areas unserved or well beyond the normal 400m optimal distance from a bus stop for potentially quite some time.  

[Reorte]

2 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

 

A good question John given the large number of shared symptoms but this table from

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-symptoms/a-52233885

gives an overview.

Headaches rare with a cold? I wish, get one almost every time I get a cold.

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Mike Storey said:

Therefore, the UK testing regime is NOT hitting those most likely having the virus. It is only testing those presenting symptoms at hospitals. The Chief Medical officer, along with most of the rest of the world, is crying out for more testing - of the contacts of those testing positive, of those in the greatest at risk areas, such as London, and of those at greatest risk due to age or health condition. Only then can anyone state what the true position is. The fact that there have been relatively few deaths in the UK thus far, is, probably, a false dawn.

Testing people presenting with symptoms at hospitals sound like it is very likely indeed to hit those most likely having the virus - it's selecting a group that's already somewhat self-selected as being quite likely.

[black and decker boy]

Just been reading page 1 of this thread, dated end of January.

 

very interesting and some quite prophetic posts

[bradfordbuffer]

1 hour ago, jjb1970 said:

At the moment the mortality rate is a guess and it may remain so (albeit with a mathematical model to give credibility) as it seems the confirmed cases are the tip of an ice berg. 

Not directed at jjb1970 above but a general observation to comments on subject above......didn't know so many railway modelers where expert's at viral infection modeling!...

Society is 'globally ' been tested, it may be rough for some....catastrophic for others! This is a world wide problem....next year the world will be a different place than it is now!....

Stay safe...help who you can! Coz next week you may need that help yourself .....

No one has anounced new models this week .....come on!

G

[lapford34102]

Just an observation but the natural world is carrying on unaffected and seemingly oblivious to our problems.

 

Stu

[maq1988]

3 minutes ago, lapford34102 said:

Just an observation but the natural world is carrying on unaffected and seemingly oblivious to our problems.

 

Indeed, walking work this morning it was nice and sunny - the daffodils were out. Blossom on some of the trees.

[StevieD71]

So, after my post and questions last night things have moved on somewhat today.

I called NHS111 this morning for advice and was told I should carry on as normal but avoid any public spaces!?! Useless altogether.

Since that other events have taken over. My 14 year old daughter developed a cough, which initially sounded like the one she sometimes has with her asthma (a sufferer like her dad), but became dryer and more persistant and her temperature rose and stayed high. This prompted a call to the out of hours doctor service, a 3 hour wait for a return call and a lenghthy conversation witha nurse, who, as well as discussing my daughters symptoms, was concerned that I sounded a bit wheezy.

The upshot is my daughter's symptoms all point to Covid-19 and the house is now in isolation for 14 days. I have also been instructed to contact my own GP tomorrow to discuss whether I should isolate further as my age, asthma, previous chest infections and arthritis mean I am borderline vunerable.

 

[bradfordbuffer]

3 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

 

A good question John given the large number of shared symptoms but this table from

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-symptoms/a-52233885

gives an overview.

 

Simple, effective, to the point and no BS thanks for bringing to the table