HS2

[Mark Saunders]

If it follows the way Government works it will be cancelled and the properties purchased sold off only to be bought again when it is reannounced!

 

The same happened with the A1 motorway upgrade north of Dishforth to Barton.

 

[corneliuslundie]

Saving a fortune of course?????

Not

But it's only our money after all.

I wonder if the First Minister's logic is that cancelling the Manchester leg will have an impact on travel to north Wales, though not sure how. It certainly won't affect mid Wales.

Or is it a way to try to get the PM to say that there is not actually any more money to spend if the Manchester leg is cancelled? As we already knew.

Jonathan

[mac1960]

I think the basic problem with HS2 falls into two camps.
First why was speed so important? HS1-was built on tried and tested TGV tech HS2 UK decided to re invent the wheel by upping the speed which is now having to be reined in anyway why ? This came at huge cost and nobody seems to be fessing up to who requested circa 400mph, sheer hubris by probably our government.

 

Next did we need it, which is a huge debate, and personally as a regular Yorkshire to London commuter no definitely not, the time difference is meaningless. 
Northern Powerhouse please can we have longer trains like we used to have so people don’t have to stand so much. I know it’s not sexy etc but maybe put trains back to 11 carriages so yo can get a seat perhaps. I know it’s a very cheap option but would help 2ish customer satisfaction and it is difficult enough to wonder about at 125 mph for that coffee never mind anything higher.

[Northmoor]

4 minutes ago, mac1960 said:

I think the basic problem with HS2 falls into two camps.
First why was speed so important? HS1-was built on tried and tested TGV tech HS2 UK decided to re invent the wheel by upping the speed which is now having to be reined in anyway why ? This came at huge cost and nobody seems to be fessing up to who requested circa 400mph, sheer hubris by probably our government.

 

Next did we need it, which is a huge debate, and personally as a regular Yorkshire to London commuter no definitely not, the time difference is meaningless. 
Northern Powerhouse please can we have longer trains like we used to have so people don’t have to stand so much. I know it’s not sexy etc but maybe put trains back to 11 carriages so yo can get a seat perhaps. I know it’s a very cheap option but would help 2ish customer satisfaction and it is difficult enough to wonder about at 125 mph for that coffee never mind anything higher.

1. It was never 400mph, it is 400kph, which is about 250mph.

2. It was never about the time difference, that was an outcome of building a modern high capacity railway which even built for 125mph would be pretty straight.

3. So you think adding one coach to each train would provide a comparable capacity increase as a new railway capable of 18x12 coach trains per hour?

4. Having walked about on a Eurostar at over 180mph, I can assure you that a modern high speed train on a modern high speed railway, is very smooth indeed.

 

I look forward to the enquiry into the overspend by HS2, when it will be revealed how much has been spent on off-railway development (offsets) along the route, all demanded by the same MPs now complaining bitterly about how expensive and poor value for money the project has been.

[martin_wynne]

HS2 shot itself in the foot by the marketing idiot who christened it HS2.

 

Had it been called HC2 (High Capacity 2) with a train every 10 minutes and plenty of seats, not only would that have been a more honest description of its actual purpose, the public reaction would have been far more favourable.

 

It was the ludicrous idea that anyone would want to get to Birmingham 20 minutes quicker than before that turned so many against it as a silly waste of money. What possible difference can 20 minutes make in a lifetime of 90 years, if you can do some work on the train anyway if it's absolutely essential. A nice seat and plenty of room and a frequent service would have sold the whole idea hands down, and it would be open by now.

 

Martin.

Edited October 3, 2023 by martin_wynne
more trains

[melmerby]

 

17 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

Had it been called HC2 (High Capacity 2) with a train every 20 minutes and plenty of seats, not only would that have been a more honest description of its actual purpose

That's going to be woefully inadequate to replace the Pendos, currently doing the job

Most of the day there are 8 or 9 Avanti trains an hour to/from Euston* with most to/from Birmingham, Manchester or Liverpool but with about maybe another 5 or 6 destinations in the mix.

You seem unaware of how busy it currently is and this is post covid, it was busier before, when HS2 was started.

 

*I counted 128 each way in a 24hr period today.

[St Enodoc]

10 hours ago, 4630 said:

 

You're missing absolutely nothing at all.

 

In very basic terms, your description is an illustration of the economic theory of the 'fiscal multiplier' and the 'circular flow of money'.

What we used to call wooden dollars.

[martin_wynne]

26 minutes ago, melmerby said:

That's going to be woefully inadequate to replace the Pendos, currently doing the job

 

It's not supposed to replace them, it's in addition.

 

But whatever the actual figure, it's the frequency, not the breakneck speed, which sells the service. Turn up, walk on and sit down.

 

The perfect marketing slogan -- "If there's no train at either platform when you turn up, you get a free mug of soup in a warm waiting room with a log fire and nice seaside pictures on the wall."

 

Martin.

Edited October 3, 2023 by martin_wynne

[martin_wynne]

48 minutes ago, melmerby said:

*I counted 128 each way in a 24hr period today.

 

Well obviously the more people you take to Birmingham, the more trains you will have to put on to bring them all back.

 

Martin.

[jjb1970]

The sad thing is that infrastructure is one of the sensible reasons for government to borrow. Unlike much government spending it creates an asset which will provide value for the long term and give something to those who will be paying to service the debt.

 

However, even given that borrowing to develop infrastructure is perfectly valid it still needs to borrowing to be kept under control to keep finances sustainable and the money should be spent efficiently and to good effect. One of my pet hates is the long standing (going back many decades) preference to live on the never never and load debt onto future generations because it's easier than making difficult choices, managing the country well or accepting we're not as rich as we think we are. Stuff like HS2 is defensible as it's a long term strategic asset but HS2 isn't even the tip of the iceberg for government spending. 

[jjb1970]

Here are three pictures that tell a story, these are from the Parliamentary commons library on the Parliament official website so use official figures. Even in times of economic growth, with only a couple of exceptional periods, governments have continued deficit spending (i.e. the country living beyond its means). People may think 'what's this got to do with HS2?', with a big deficit and high debt government has to either raise more taxes, cut spending, grow the economy or a combination of all three. What it can't do is just press on and hope it'll all work out. HS2 is not in itself the problem, it is a small part of a much bigger problem.

 

[rockershovel]

..... which is the whole point, really. The USSR was essentially a deficit economy, which worked well enough as long as they were a nett producer of gold, coal and various other things... but eventually they weren't, and look how that turned out. The Americans have managed the quite remarkable achievement of running a hugely wealthy country into chronic debt, and that won't end well. 

 

WE have basically lived off our capital until it was spent. We had a huge once-only national windfall and wasted it; we have allowed vast population influxes which the infrastructure cannot support, and by doing so we have chronically depressed GDP per capita (which is the one that counts, not the one they use in Westminster which automatically increases with the population). We have destroyed or sold virtually everything of value. 

 

Our government seems wholly, or at least principally involved in ideological infighting which has no real connection with the problems in this country. 

 

I've seen the former USSR. I've seen what happens when things simply stop functioning. Too many people here simply don't understand, or believe that it an increasingly likely outcome. 

 

[BachelorBoy]

13 hours ago, woodenhead said:

How about a public transport system and city design so good that most of us don't need a car......

 

 

You don't need a car really in Hong Kong, but I doubt that British people would accept living in high-rise apartment blocks with the density of population to make public transport frequent and extensive enough.

 

People in Britain like their gardens or living in the country too much for that.

 

[4630]

3 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

People may think 'what's this got to do with HS2?', with a big deficit and high debt government has to either raise more taxes, cut spending, grow the economy or a combination of all three. What it can't do is just press on and hope it'll all work out. HS2 is not in itself the problem, it is a small part of a much bigger problem.

 

 

 

 

Absolutely.  100%.  Spot on. 
 

And of course resolving this problem is unfortunately the root of the problem in the UK, as it’s where politics in all its different hues and dimensions has inevitably to enter the equation.  

[papagolfjuliet]

8 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

 

 

It was the ludicrous idea that anyone would want to get to Birmingham 20 minutes quicker than before that turned so many against it as a silly waste of money. What possible difference can 20 minutes make in a lifetime of 90 years, if you can do some work on the train anyway if it's absolutely essential.

 

Well quite. If you get to work twenty minutes early you're not going to do an extra twenty minutes' work. You're going to have a cup of tea.

[class26]

12 hours ago, papagolfjuliet said:

 

Well quite. If you get to work twenty minutes early you're not going to do an extra twenty minutes' work. You're going to have a cup of tea.

and that entirely misses the point about HS2,. 

HS2 just happens to cut of 30 or so minutes to Brum (not 20 as popularly quoted) but that is a by product of the line. 

The real purpose is it takes off the WCML most of the express trains which eat up capacity freeing it up for local services and freight. 

This argument has been made many zillions of times  but still the popular, Daily Express myth about 20 mins to brum persists

 

If you build a new line you build it using technology of the day ie 200 mph. The Victorians built to the fastest of THEIR day . No doubt many were saying 150 years ago why build to 60 mph , we only need go at the speed of horse drawn coaches ie 15 / 20 mph . Incidentally, the cost of building to 200 mph rather than 100 mph is minimal and NOT where the money has gone. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by class26

[papagolfjuliet]

7 minutes ago, class26 said:

and that entirely misses the point about HS2,. 

HS2 just happens to cut of 30 or so minutes to Brum (not 20 as popularly quioted) but that is a by product of the line. 

The real purpose is it takes off the WCML most of the epress trains which eat up capacity freeing it up for local services and freight. 

This argument has been many zillions of times  but still the popular, Daily Express myth about 20 mins to brum persists

of ypu build a new line you build it usign technology of the day ie 200 mph. The Victorians built to the fastest of THEIR day . No doubt many were saying 150 years ago why build to 60 mph , we only need go at the speed of horse drawn coaches ie 15 / 20 mph . Incidentally, the cost of building to 200 mph rather than 100 mph is minimal and NOT where the money has gone. 

 

Yes I know. That was a joke.

[class26]

12 hours ago, papagolfjuliet said:

 

Yes I know. That was a joke.

OK, it wasn`t clear to me at least, apologies

Edited October 4, 2023 by class26

[adb968008]

9 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

HS2 shot itself in the foot by the marketing idiot who christened it HS2.

 

Had it been called HC2 (High Capacity 2) with a train every 10 minutes and plenty of seats, not only would that have been a more honest description of its actual purpose, the public reaction would have been far more favourable.

 

It was the ludicrous idea that anyone would want to get to Birmingham 20 minutes quicker than before that turned so many against it as a silly waste of money. What possible difference can 20 minutes make in a lifetime of 90 years, if you can do some work on the train anyway if it's absolutely essential. A nice seat and plenty of room and a frequent service would have sold the whole idea hands down, and it would be open by now.

 

Martin.

 

1 hour ago, papagolfjuliet said:

 

Well quite. If you get to work twenty minutes early you're not going to do an extra twenty minutes' work. You're going to have a cup of tea.

your assuming the train is ontime, and not cancelled.

leaves on the line, wrong kind of snow, strikes, signal failures, train failures, animal on the tracks… the public is preconditioned to trains.

Even the Elizabeth line goes pop, more so than most !

 

no one will trust it, because the public cannot trust trains to be reliable.

HS2 will be no different… to the public its just a train.

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by adb968008

[Michael Hodgson]

8 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Well obviously the more people you take to Birmingham, the more trains you will have to put on to bring them all back.

 

Martin.

Not necessarily.

If you can't stop people coming over the channel in little boats and you aren't allowed to send them to Rwanda, perhaps you could try sending them all to Birmingham instead ? 😛

[woodenhead]

4 hours ago, BachelorBoy said:

 

 

You don't need a car really in Hong Kong, but I doubt that British people would accept living in high-rise apartment blocks with the density of population to make public transport frequent and extensive enough.

 

People in Britain like their gardens or living in the country too much for that.

 

You need to visit then, more and more high-rise being built in city centres here in the UK.

 

And high-rise designed with multiple occupancy in mind is also a thing too.

[Pacific231G]

Much of the excessively high cost of HS2 seems to have come from not merely trying to build a high speed line, most developed countries have proved they can do that, but to build an underground, or at least invisible, high speed line which nobody else has been daft enough to try.

[jamie92208]

Well we are all waiting for the much trailed big announcement later. I believe that it starts at 11. 30 in the UK. 

 

Just some thoughts about this thread. 

 

If, as looks likely, Phase 2 is scrapped then we are left with the well underway phase 1 plus or minus Euston.  There are rumours of a series of improvements between Handsacre and Manchester.  Would it be a good idea to keep this thread to Just be about Phase 1 and start a new thread or possibly more about the "improvements. 

 

Any thoughts would be welcome.  

 

If we do go down that route then we i'lhave to speak to the mods as the founder of this thread is sadly no longer with us and the title may need amending. 

 

 

l will keep my thoughts about any cancellations myself.  

 

Jamie

Edited October 4, 2023 by jamie92208

[BachelorBoy]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

You need to visit then, more and more high-rise being built in city centres here in the UK.

 

And high-rise designed with multiple occupancy in mind is also a thing too.

A good thing. But it would take generations for British cities to reach population densities high enough to have HK levels of public transport.

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

Something we haven’t discussed.

As originally conceived, HS2 was to be a stand-alone, self-contained route network, to link 3 key city markets with London and between the northern pair (Manchester & Leeds) and Birmingham.

It was also to have available capacity to also accommodate trains that could run “off the end” of the northern reaches of the line, to serve further key destinations which couldn’t justify the building of further sections of line, particularly on the WCML (Liverpool and Scotland).

The main constraints of future WCML capacity were being addressed.

 

A decision was arrived at to not only build this new line as a modern day “high speed” line, but as a mainly self contained network, to free it from the constraints of the small British loading gauge and built it to a larger UIC gauge (GC) to not only to help in  the procurement of rolling stock, but primarily to hard wire in the capacity growth benefits that wider, and in the future, double deck trains could provide.

 

I won’t go into the earlier possibility of linking the line to HS1, allowing continental stock to run between HS2 and the other side of the channel, as that’s long dead.

 

So, it was envisioned that the core train fleet for this route, would be a captive fleet of UIC gauge trains, that would be restricted and dedicated to HS2.

With an additional fleet of “classic compatible “ trains, that would be able to use both HS2 and serve destinations beyond, via the WCML.

 

As events have unfolded, it was decided to carve up the build into phases.

This meant that for a number of years after opening of the first stage (phase 1), trains to Leeds (as was) and Manchester, would continue to use the classic NR network, beyond the early phases of the HS2 build.

Also the scope of services provided had increased, with the addition of stations at East Midlands Parkway, Sheffield and Crewe.

 

It became clear that the initial train order would have to be for the “classic compatible” fleet.

The thinking being, that those trains could later be redeployed onto serving destinations beyond HS2, when the whole line was completed.

At which point, a “captive fleet” for the core market, to accommodate anticipated growth, could be ordered to take full advantage of the UIC GC gauge.

Remember, this was planning for the late 2030’s, ‘40’s and beyond.

 

So far, only the “classic compatible” train fleet has been specified and ordered.

Seems reasonable considering that until only a couple of months ago, with the eastern leg being shortened, the full line was now restricted to Manchester and completion had been pushed back to 2040/42.

 

If Phase 2A and Phase 2B are to be cancelled completely, there is now no longer a need for new trains that can take advantage of the larger UIC loading gauge., but they are building HS2 to accommodate them !

There’s almost no chance that a small fleet would be ordered, to be dedicated purely to the London to Birmingham route.

Another wasted opportunity and like curtailment at OOC, another failure to realise the benefits being provided by this massively expensive railway line.

 

 

 

.