HS2

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, RJS1977 said:

 

Whilst rail can often have the upper hand over air with regards to city-centre to city-centre journeys (direct train journey rather than travelling out to the airport, going through check in, security, etc, fly to the other airport, make your way out of the airport, travel to the city centre, the balance can be shifted if the passenger is travelling from the outskirts of the city and has to travel in to the city centre to catch the train, and out again at the other end.

 

I remember an occasion when I was growing up in Manchester (near the airport). A gentleman from London needed to come up and meet with my father, and he elected to fly rather than take the train.  After we'd dropped him off at the airport again afterwards, I asked my father why the visitor had chosen to fly, and my father explained that our visitor would have had to have travelled into the centre of London, caught the train up from Euston to Piccadilly, then caught the stopping train back out to where we were which would have taken longer than flying.

 

Having HS2 stations in the vicinity of airports means that the station is as convenient to get to as the airport is, so the balance becomes

 

length of train journey v check-in-time + length of flight

 

which can be a much closer balance.

 

This is very much the case, except very few people check-in at the airport now for short-haul, especially on domestic flights. They do it in advance.

If I remember correctly, research shows most long distance intercity rail and domestic air journeys are not city centre to city centre, but start or end at a suburban, edge of, or out of town location.

 

I also grew up not far away from Manchester Airport (leafy east Cheshire countryside).

My father worked in Manchester, but once or twice a year had to travel down to London, to visit head office. Usually with a couple of colleagues.

This was the late 1960's and throughout the 1970's.

That head office was actually near Teddington, so rail travel would have involved getting to a station where he could catch an Intercity train, crossing London from Euston to Waterloo, catching a train out to the nearest station and then getting a taxi to the HQ offices.

There was a much easier and less time consuming alternative. A 15 minute drive to Manchester Airport, a flight to Heathrow and either a taxi to his destination, or more usually, the company sent a driver out to pick them up. Saved lots of time, meaning more time could be spent at HQ and the return trip could be done in a day, without a costly night stop.

 

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Edited January 28, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[phil-b259]

23 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Try the LNWR service from Northampton to London mid morning i.e. not rush hour

Trains full to standing. It is overcrowded for much longer than "rush hour"

One of the reasons for HS2

 

You rather miss the point as the road equivalent is not the case with the M5 between Taunton and Exeter and thus a parallel route is not needed.

 

Admittedly might be different if said M5 was 2 rather than 3 lanes in each direction though.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by phil-b259

[Arun Sharma]

3 hours ago, Grovenor said:

But since the overwhelming majority of the flights do go overseas its equally important to tax them, hence the suggestion above was to seek international agreement. The dependence of some many ecomomies on cheap flights makes it unlikely to happen, it could be a long running campaign.

Irrelevant, I believe as the point being made is comparing the actual costs of train journeys within GB against flying on internal journeys wholly within GB mainland. The bottom line is that aircraft flying intra-GB sectors are actually being subsidised by the UK taxpayer because no or little tax is paid on jet aircraft fuel.

I confess I have no idea what rate of tax is payable on the fuel used by say an IET or HST or Voyager.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Arun Sharma
incompleteness

[DY444]

14 hours ago, Grovenor said:

But the views of environment campaigners (and NIMBYs) have been taken into account, hence the significant increase in project cost from all the tree planting, species relocation, extra tunnelling etc.

 

I know all of that but they are not interested.  All they care about is getting the project scrapped period.  And they don't care which laws they break in setting about it. 

 

Quite why groups who profess to be concerned about the environment object to electric railways is one of the great mysteries of our time. 

[Ron Ron Ron]

25 minutes ago, DY444 said:

I know all of that but they are not interested.  All they care about is getting the project scrapped period. .......

Which is clearly and obviously not going to happen at this stage. It’s far too late for that now.

Even a change of government will not result in the project being scrapped. The very most that would happen are some changes to the environmental mitigation’s, lots of woolly words and possibly a descoping or delay in proceeding with some of the phase 2 sections of the route. Although the latter would cause a few political difficulties with the North and the Midlands.

 

 

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[jamie92208]

18 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Which is clearly and obviously not going to happen at this stage. It’s far too late for that now.

Even a change of government will not result in the project being scrapped. The very most that would happen are some changes to the environmental mitigation’s, lots of woolly words and possibly a descoping or delay in proceeding with some of the phase 2 sections of the route. Although the latter would cause a few political difficulties with the North and the Midlands.

 

 

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I think that descoping phase 2, especially the eastern leg will cause huge political difficulties especially for a goverment reliant on a large contingentbof newly elected northern MP's. However lets tryband keep politics out of here. I'm living seeing the photos of actual work taking place.

 

Jamie

[Zomboid]

I could see the Manchester branch being postponed, since phase 1a goes to Crewe anyway (though I don't know how easily the trains could be accommodated from there to Manchester via the existing lines), but the benefits to the MML and ECML would make the eastern leg arguably a better investment.

 

But as you say, those kind of decisions have all sorts of politics attached, so who knows.

[Pandora]

I studied the official business case report for HS2, HS2  is being justified by a  contemporary  vision of where our society is heading, an  the assumption of more commuting, more rushing around here and there, the report  ignores the prospect that Artificial Intelligence may eliminate many white-collar jobs ie the  people for whom HS2 is intended to serve.

In periods of introspection, I reflect  that our work ethic is changing during and post Covid, consumption patterns  and lifestyle  aspirations are changing. Certainly this is the  mood when I talk with friends and neighbours, in some cases  they  are purposely downgrading  their consumption patterns, less shopping and non-essential spending, choosing smaller cars and fewer holidays, not out of necessity,  by choice of lifestyle.

I hope the people committing the £100bn to HS2 have better versions of the  crystal ball than the Euston protestors

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

53 minutes ago, Zomboid said:

I could see the Manchester branch being postponed, since phase 1a goes to Crewe anyway (though I don't know how easily the trains could be accommodated from there to Manchester via the existing lines)........

That would scupper some of the plans for NPR, as that is largely predicated on leveraging the HS2 infrastructure into Manchester.

There’s a lot of official discussion going on at the moment, over how the HS2 plans for Manchester can be modified to accommodate and facilitate NPR.

 

Not taking the dedicate HS2 line into Manchester, also reduces the long term capacity benefits of the whole project.

It would almost certainly seriously dent the business case for ordering the proposed captive fleet of high capacity trains, meaning that only classic compatible trains will ever be deployed.
Not so much a problem at line opening, but it’ll come back and bite the country in the bum within a decade or so later. It will also render the UIC GC infrastructure as uselessly over specified, with all the political recriminations over the additional “wasted money”.

 

 

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Edited January 29, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[Northmoor]

@Pandora- Yes, but....

Every prediction of technical advancement leading to mass unemployment, has been proved wrong, without exception.  My own prediction for AI is that a great deal of what is predicted is based on what AI has been shown as capable of doing, but no-one has shown a need for AI to do it.

 

Your observation of lifestyle changes reflects something that has been known about for a lot longer than the current pandemic, probably for 20 years plus.  Western Society is moving away from "acquiring things" to "acquiring experiences", which tends to means travelling to do stuff, rather than buy more stuff.  It certainly doesn't mean spending longer in our homes watching TV, so the growth in demand for travel will return very quickly once the current restrictions are lifted.  When that happens, trains will be pretty full again.

[Zomboid]

Travel patterns are likely to change to some extent, and some degree of home working for those that can is likely to remain in place. And there could well be an increase in long distance commuting. As someone who nominally goes to an office in London, that puts a horizon of around an hour on the bearable daily journey. But if I'm going in twice a week then I could put up with a longer journey, and live in (for example) Cheshire, from where I could hypothetically get a HS2 train from Crewe or Manchester Airport.

 

With most of us having been stuck at home for almost a year (so far), there will be a lot of pent up demand to go places in the short term, and I don't see leisure travel falling away much in the longer term - and there was a lot of that before. Not everyone who travels is commuting.

 

Of course whilst we're in the midst of the pandemic then I'm just gazing into my crystal ball...

[pete_mcfarlane]

I've looked at an AI based solution as part of my job. The attitude is very much geared towards using AI to free people from doing routine tasks, so that they can be put to use on project work (so employees get more interesting work, and employers get more stuff delivered for the same headcount).  The idea that we'll all be out of work due to robots is just another journalist invention. 

[woodenhead]

3 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

@Pandora- Yes, but....

Every prediction of technical advancement leading to mass unemployment, has been proved wrong, without exception.  My own prediction for AI is that a great deal of what is predicted is based on what AI has been shown as capable of doing, but no-one has shown a need for AI to do it.

But there are less meaningful jobs - lots of Costas. Starbucks, Subways and such like, much less skilled labour for working class folks to go into as everything works better today so requires less maintenance.  The loss of high street jobs replaced by warehouse driven online sales with companies such as Boston Dynamics and Amazon actively looking at robots and automation to speed selection and processing of ordered goods.

 

There are plenty of jobs I agree, but plenty of unemployment, plenty of deprived areas where benefits are the main form of income, it will only be harder post covid.

 

I used to bank with Barclays as my main account, we moved after a terrible experience in branch, we've recently been active with them again on a business account but all we've seen so far is utter incompetence on the part of the telephone staff, lack of knowledge, poor website design, emails that say one thing when they've done something else - it's frightening. I used to work for them and they were a good bank, I don't know what happened but it is quite clear they have de-skilled their workforce to be able to pay them less.

 

I still agree HS2 should continue, but I do wonder whether it would be still financially viable had a decision been put before a minister today.

[Ron Ron Ron]

Many of those working from home, or limiting their lifestyle activities, are living in a cushioned situation while they still have jobs being propped up by government support, or are in limbo under furlough arrangements.

Once a return to  “normality” starts to gain mass, many will have no choice but to adopt previous patterns of behaviour.

 

The other thing to remember, is that phase one of HS2 isn’t going to be operational for at least another 9 or 10 years.

The later proposed phases are now delayed and expected to be completed in around 20 years from now.

That’s a long time ahead and whatever technological and social changes occur over that timescale, it’s impossible to predict that the demand for travel will diminish.

Set those considerations against the rising population numbers.

67 million plus today.

Even with a reduced rate of population growth and possibly less net migration, that still means we pass 70 million within 8 years from now (i.e. that's a minimum figure).

We could be at or above 76 million by the time the full HS2 network, as currently planned , is delivered.

Even if we all travel less individually, the total demand for travel is bound to grow.

 

 

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Edited January 29, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[woodenhead]

2 minutes ago, pete_mcfarlane said:

I've looked at an AI based solution as part of my job. The attitude is very much geared towards using AI to free people from doing routine tasks, so that they can be put to use on project work (so employees get more interesting work, and employers get more stuff delivered for the same headcount).  The idea that we'll all be out of work due to robots is just another journalist invention. 

But doing routine tasks - that involves someone doing that job, they are being replaced and then re-deployed instead of employing another person.

 

I've seen the cost of AI robots, they ain't cheap but they do work 24/7 so an employers dream, don't kid yourself that employing them isn't about saving money.  It may not result in immediate redundancies but it does ultimately reduce headcount down the line as you don't recruit people.  I've been doing automation for years, AI is just the latest trend in doing so.

[Joseph_Pestell]

50 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

That would scupper some of the plans for NPR, as that is largely predicated on leveraging the HS2 infrastructure into Manchester.

There’s a lot of official discussion going on at the moment, over how the HS2 plans for Manchester can be modified to accommodate and facilitate NPR.

 

Not taking the dedicate HS2 line into Manchester, also reduces the long term capacity benefits of the whole project.

It would almost certainly seriously dent the business case for ordering the proposed captive fleet of high capacity trains, meaning that only classic compatible trains will ever be deployed.
Not so much a problem at line opening, but it’ll come back and bite the country in the bum within a decade or so later. It will also render the UIC GC infrastructure as uselessly over specified, with all the political recriminations over the additional “wasted money”.

 

 

.

 

Probably too late now, but I think that there was a much better option for Manchester by putting the HS2 station on the site of Exchange.

 

That would have meant not going via Ringway but I am not sure that I see too much benefit to a station there.

[class26]

1 hour ago, Zomboid said:

I could see the Manchester branch being postponed, since phase 1a goes to Crewe anyway (though I don't know how easily the trains could be accommodated from there to Manchester via the existing lines), but the benefits to the MML and ECML would make the eastern leg arguably a better investment.

 

But as you say, those kind of decisions have all sorts of politics attached, so who knows.

I think there is no way the manchester leg will get postponed. Burnham would be screaming blue murder as would every other northern politician and the NPR would be severally compromised also if not made impossible. If the Tories were to postpone they would be toast and Labour will not as they are desperate to claw back the north.   

[KeithMacdonald]

3 hours ago, Pandora said:

I studied the official business case report for HS2, HS2  is being justified by a  contemporary  vision of where our society is heading, an  the assumption of more commuting, more rushing around here and there, the report  ignores the prospect that Artificial Intelligence may eliminate many white-collar jobs ie the  people for whom HS2 is intended to serve.

 

And/or many of the people still with white-collar jobs will happily continue to Work From Home. My current employer is being quite open about this. They've realised they don't need big offices for 500+ people in each when 400+ of them are now willing & able to WFH, not commute, and use online video conferencing. It's had zero effect on the ability of the whole business to operate. More crucially, this WFH will continue as the "new normal" after lockdown finishes. 

 

As much as HS2 is a great technical achievement, the business case for it might be holed below the waterline.

 

[Edwin_m]

3 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Not taking the dedicate HS2 line into Manchester, also reduces the long term capacity benefits of the whole project.

It would almost certainly seriously dent the business case for ordering the proposed captive fleet of high capacity trains, meaning that only classic compatible trains will ever be deployed.
Not so much a problem at line opening, but it’ll come back and bite the country in the bum within a decade or so later. It will also render the UIC GC infrastructure as uselessly over specified, with all the political recriminations over the additional “wasted money”..

Most of the extra cost for a classic compatible fleet is in the design, therefore the same whether one train is ordered or 100 and a split fleet might cost more in capital as well as operating cost.  The initial order will be all classic compatibles, and with the increased amount of through running proposed to the national network there may never be the critical mass to support a fleet of captive units.  

 

For brand new high speed infrastructure however, the extra cost of building to UIC rather than a British gauge is tiny.  Most of the clearances are dictated by aerodynamic factors in any case.  So almost certainly this is a worthwhile risk mitigation, in case the situation I described above doesn't come to pass.  For example one way to increase capacity might be to ordering a fleet of captive units (maybe even double deckers) to a proven standard European design for London-Birmingham/Manchester and re-deploy the classic compatibles to other HS2 routes.  

2 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Probably too late now, but I think that there was a much better option for Manchester by putting the HS2 station on the site of Exchange.

 

That would have meant not going via Ringway but I am not sure that I see too much benefit to a station there.

The study into station locations looked at numerous sites around Manchester.  I read the report but I'm not sure if it's still online.  The final choice was between Piccadilly and a site extending roughly between Salford Central and Salford Crescent.  Exchange would clearly have been more convenient than the latter site so I'm sure it was considered and ruled out - probably not enough space.  

[Northmoor]

1 hour ago, KeithMacdonald said:

 

And/or many of the people still with white-collar jobs will happily continue to Work From Home. My current employer is being quite open about this. They've realised they don't need big offices for 500+ people in each when 400+ of them are now willing & able to WFH, not commute, and use online video conferencing. It's had zero effect on the ability of the whole business to operate. More crucially, this WFH will continue as the "new normal" after lockdown finishes. 

 

As much as HS2 is a great technical achievement, the business case for it might be holed below the waterline.

 

Be very careful extrapolating the experience of your employer or sector to the whole economy*.  Stating that almost everyone will work at home is like saying that the last 200 years of organisational evolution has been reversed in less than 12 months.   Most centralisation of white-collar businesses wasn't justified purely on the financial savings from reducing accommodation, but based on improved communication and collaboration.  I 've lost count of how many things I've got involved with at work, because I happened to be there for an unscheduled discussion.  Jobs always have and always will go those who are there to volunteer; those never in the office will miss out until they realise and start attending more frequently.  This is why contractors have offices near their main clients, so they can drop in easily.  Those that can't, don't get the work in my experience.

 

Also, don't fall into the anti-HS2 trap of believing that only commuters travel by train.  The WCML is busy all day, every day.  I have been on a S-bound Manchester-Euston train that was full and standing South of Milton Keynes, arriving at Euston at 6pm, when most people are trying to leave London.  As I said above, the growth in travel is for leisure, more than for commuting, and leisure travel can be at any time of day.

 

*The UK's largest employer is the NHS.  What proportion of their employees are working from home at the moment?

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, Edwin_m said:

......The initial order will be all classic compatibles, and with the increased amount of through running proposed to the national network there may never be the critical mass to support a fleet of captive units. .....

 

Hi Edwin, I'm aware that the initial order is for classic compatibles and you are right that if increased emphasis is placed on through running, it would compromise the case for any captive units.

 

As an aside, I personally think that the current plans for through running and additional stations on the HS2 infrastructure itself, have gone way over and above the original conclusions of NR, when they baselined HS2 prior to the HS2 project being formally launched.

Far too much "mission creep" has affected the programme and inevitably ramped up the costs.

 

1 hour ago, Edwin_m said:

............one way to increase capacity might be to ordering a fleet of captive units (maybe even double deckers) to a proven standard European design for London-Birmingham/Manchester and re-deploy the classic compatibles to other HS2 routes.  .....

 

This is what I have always understood to be the original plan.

Double deck stock will inevitably have to be used if capacity is filled. The trains are already going to be very long and additional paths are limited.

Assuming the passenger demand will be there, double deck stock for the key routes is the only way the potential capacity of HS2 can be fully utilised.

 

There is a problem though in moving CC stock to other HS2 routes. Where will the extra paths come from?

 

 

.

 

[KeithMacdonald]

1 hour ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Double deck stock will inevitably have to be used if capacity is filled.

 

But have they designed the infrastructure for that?

 

[melmerby]

3 minutes ago, KeithMacdonald said:

 

But have they designed the infrastructure for that?

 

More like this I think:

 

[KeithMacdonald]

2 hours ago, Northmoor said:

Be very careful extrapolating the experience of your employer or sector to the whole economy*.  Stating that almost everyone will work at home is like saying that the last 200 years of organisational evolution has been reversed in less than 12 months.  

 

 

I have been careful, and I did carefully say "white-collar", and you should know I didn't say "almost everyone".

e.g.
 

Quote

 

Our research found that 60% of the UK’s adult population are currently working from home during the Coronavirus lockdown.

On average, each of these workers will save £44.78 a week by cutting out things like commuting and buying lunch out.

This results in 23.9 million Brits working from home are saving around £1.1 billion each week between them.

26% of Brits plan to continue to work from home permanently or occasionally after lockdown.

 

 

https://www.finder.com/uk/working-from-home-statistics

 

Re

Quote

the last 200 years of organisational evolution has been reversed in less than 12 months.  

 

You might well be correct.

Have you noticed our leaders are now openly talking about "The Big Reset"?

e.g. The World Economic Forum with our HRH Prince Charles.

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, KeithMacdonald said:

 

But have they designed the infrastructure for that?

 

 

In case that wasn't just a good bit of humour, or if anyone else reading the topic is unaware, note that HS2 is being built to UIC GC.

 

 

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Edited January 29, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron