HS2

[martin_wynne]

33 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

I think preserved railways even have an opportunity here..a railway for a day, catering and a suitably renovated goods depot conference room

 

The Engine House museum at Highley on the SVR has meeting/conference rooms for hire:

 

 https://www.svr.co.uk/pdf/svr_enginehouse_meetingrooms.pdf

 

Martin.

[corneliuslundie]

Why just list those countries. When I was living in Kosovo the pay for a university lecturer was 300 euros a month, and health service staff were paid a good deal less. Mind you an individual who did not have rent to pay (living at home with extended family, traditionally) could live on that easily.

But what that highlights is that the cost of living varies enormously between countries, including those listed above.

Jonathan

[Pandora]

Railway friends from NR P-way office staff are hearing of  a scenario of  post Covid  belt-tightening with a prediction of a  40% reduction in passenger numbers,   ie several years of passenger growth lost. Does that mean fewer trains in 2021/22 timetables, or will the TOCs, ( if they do not hand back their contracts)  soldier on with the same service pattern?

No -one is predicting an increase in post-covid  passenger numbers, but Is a 40% reduction in passenger numbers   an unrealistic unduly-pessimistic forecast?

Edited February 2, 2021 by Pandora

[Satan's Goldfish]

It's impossible to accurately predict what will happen post Covid, all industry, including NR, just needs to remain flexible and ready for whatever the future may be. A lot of peak services pre-covid were overfilled so a blanket reduction in ridership probably won't equal a reduction in services. Maintaining the same number of services but with less ridership may encourage more that can't work from home onto rail rather than driving post Covid. You've got to remember that not everyone can work from home and some that used to take the train will now be driving instead to remain more isolated. 

 

Where I now work (moved position since Covid started) I have a choice from home of either driving, flying, or taking the train. I'm currently driving it to remain isolated, but post Covid I plan on using rail as it will work out cheaper if I pre-book the tickets (I'm entitled to a discount card too). Flying would be quicker but not as cost or environmentally friendly... unless I fancy getting some duty free from Schipol on my uk domestic flight... I'm just 1 person, but I've not used rail to 'commute' since I learned to drive over 20 years ago, so there will still be a market for it. The route I'll take won't need to use HS2, but I suspect it will benefit from it in the long run making services less crowded and more frequent.

[Siberian Snooper]

I for one will be glad to get out and about on the train again, unfortunately no more model shopping in Exeter.

 

 

[RJS1977]

7 hours ago, Pandora said:

Railway friends from NR P-way office staff are hearing of  a scenario of  post Covid  belt-tightening with a prediction of a  40% reduction in passenger numbers,   ie several years of passenger growth lost. Does that mean fewer trains in 2021/22 timetables, or will the TOCs, ( if they do not hand back their contracts)  soldier on with the same service pattern?

No -one is predicting an increase in post-covid  passenger numbers, but Is a 40% reduction in passenger numbers   an unrealistic unduly-pessimistic forecast?

 

A lot will depend on where the 40% reduction falls. I would imagine that many London commuter services will remain well-used, just not overcrowded.

 

OTOH maybe people will be less reluctant to travel on less-used rural services as they're not so busy anyway so less risk.

 

From my journeys last summer, the return train I got to Didcot, and my various bus trips to Wallingford were journeys that I knew were pretty lightly loaded even at the best of times (one reason I did them).

 

However I was somewhat surprised at how full the Turbo was that I caught back from Aldermaston one day.

[Northmoor]

A quite interesting assessment of high speed rail worldwide and the general problem of costs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55624103

 

However, I do get frustrated with articles like this when they always get quotes from "Rail Expert, Christian Wolmar".  While compared to most journos he is quite knowledgeable, I think he's far from an "expert"; he's just available for comment.  Having a lot of opinions should not be mistaken for having a lot of knowledge. 

[MyRule1]

15 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

A quite interesting assessment of high speed rail worldwide and the general problem of costs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55624103

 

However, I do get frustrated with articles like this when they always get quotes from "Rail Expert, Christian Wolmar".  While compared to most journos he is quite knowledgeable, I think he's far from an "expert"; he's just available for comment.  Having a lot of opinions should not be mistaken for having a lot of knowledge. 

Rather unfair on Christian Wolmar. I communicated with him in the mid 1990's on a coupled of topics and even then he struck me as someone who both knew and cared about the railway industry especially from the passengers viewpoint. You don't get to write in every issue of Rail Magazine without expertise. In my view his knowledge informs his opinion. What he says/writes comes from analysis.

[lmsforever]

Seems to be an increase in articles ,tv progs about if there is a future in high speed rail bit worrying as the DFT etc could be swayed ?

[Fenman]

38 minutes ago, lmsforever said:

Seems to be an increase in articles ,tv progs about if there is a future in high speed rail bit worrying as the DFT etc could be swayed ?

 

You assume those stories are not being planted by DfT, to assess how people react?

 

Policy "kite flying" is a well-established method of "testing the waters". Many organisations do it, most of them anonymously and often by using a "think tank" to publicise a report adopting a particular position.

 

Paul

[melmerby]

3 hours ago, MyRule1 said:

Rather unfair on Christian Wolmar.

The problem is that he is the go to "Railway Expert" for TV news producers whenever there is a railway story on any topic.

He quite clearly is not expert on all aspects of the railway but is expected to give an in depth reply to any questions asked, whatever the story.

 

 

 

 

 

[jamie92208]

3 minutes ago, melmerby said:

The problem is that he is the go to "Railway Expert" for TV news producers whenever there is a railway story on any topic.

He quite clearly is not expert on all aspects of the railway but is expected to give an in depth reply to any questions asked, whatever the story.

 

 

 

 

 

He has also been a vocal opponent  of HS2 for many years. Hardly an independent  voice.

 

Jamie

[Mark Saunders]

3 hours ago, Northmoor said:

A quite interesting assessment of high speed rail worldwide and the general problem of costs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55624103

 

However, I do get frustrated with articles like this when they always get quotes from "Rail Expert, Christian Wolmar".  While compared to most journos he is quite knowledgeable, I think he's far from an "expert"; he's just available for comment.  Having a lot of opinions should not be mistaken for having a lot of knowledge. 

Christian Wolmar became the go to for quotes as he replaced Roger Ford when someone was required to be rolled out in front of the cameras!

[caradoc]

A couple of interesting points in the BBC story from Prof Bent Flyvbjerg, of Oxford University's Said Business School, (an expert on the management of megaprojects); 

 

He says “It [High speed rail] only makes sense in high-density areas, and it only makes sense over distances of under 800km" - Which is surely precisely the case in the UK, and particularly for HS2.

 

However, he is also hopeful that 'Elon Musk’s Hyperloop - whereby pods containing passengers travel at great speed through vacuum tubes - might turn out to be a better, more cost-effective alternative to high-speed rail', which, from what we know of Hyperloop so far, is utter nonsense. 

 

[KeithMacdonald]

23 minutes ago, caradoc said:

However, he is also hopeful that 'Elon Musk’s Hyperloop - whereby pods containing passengers travel at great speed through vacuum tubes - might turn out to be a better, more cost-effective alternative to high-speed rail', which, from what we know of Hyperloop so far, is utter nonsense.

 

Hmm, sounds like an "atmospheric railway"?

[KeithMacdonald]

38 minutes ago, melmerby said:

The problem is that he is the go to "Railway Expert" for TV news producers whenever there is a railway story on any topic.

He quite clearly is not expert on all aspects of the railway but is expected to give an in depth reply to any questions asked, whatever the story.

 

A friend in BBC News tells me they have a short list of "media friendly" go-to people for each and every topic. Not necessarily the most knowledgeable and/or impartial, just the ones the BBC editors like the most. Which inevitably carries the baggage of BBC editors most liking the ones that have the same "orientation" as them.

 

Folks who do have real in-depth knowledge of any subject may have already experienced the same problem when the media needs an "expert" to offer a soundbite "independent" opinion, and their opinion is not the same as ours.

 

 

[phil-b259]

On 02/02/2021 at 11:35, Pandora said:

Railway friends from NR P-way office staff are hearing of  a scenario of  post Covid  belt-tightening with a prediction of a  40% reduction in passenger numbers,   ie several years of passenger growth lost. Does that mean fewer trains in 2021/22 timetables, or will the TOCs, ( if they do not hand back their contracts)  soldier on with the same service pattern?

No -one is predicting an increase in post-covid  passenger numbers, but Is a 40% reduction in passenger numbers   an unrealistic unduly-pessimistic forecast?

 

I think every TOC has done a deal with the Government to effectively suspend their franchise terms and have basically transitioned into being merely tools of the DfT.

 

Service levels going forward will thus be specified by the DfT who will be looking to keep a tight rein on costs (i.e. carting fresh air about) while at the same time making sure the service that remains is attractive enough that people will still find train services frequent enough that they see it as an attractive option in accordance with the moral responsibility to try and fight climate change.

 

Given research proves that train frequencies make a big difference to how attractive rail travel is perceived I would expect the cost cutting to focus more on running things like shorter trains where possible and reforms to staffing costs* than radical service cuts.

 

 

* Which will no doubt be resisted by the strike happy RMT of course who are already spoiling for a fight with Boris.

[Zomboid]

37 minutes ago, caradoc said:

A couple of interesting points in the BBC story from Prof Bent Flyvbjerg, of Oxford University's Said Business School, (an expert on the management of megaprojects); 

 

He says “It [High speed rail] only makes sense in high-density areas, and it only makes sense over distances of under 800km" - Which is surely precisely the case in the UK, and particularly for HS2.

 

However, he is also hopeful that 'Elon Musk’s Hyperloop - whereby pods containing passengers travel at great speed through vacuum tubes - might turn out to be a better, more cost-effective alternative to high-speed rail', which, from what we know of Hyperloop so far, is utter nonsense. 

 

The article isn't solely about HS2 though, it's framed as being high speed rail in general.

 

And as for hyperloop... Well, maybe one day, but it's not something you'd cancel a high speed rail project for in 2021. You might start thinking about building one in 2041...

[black and decker boy]

12 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

I think every TOC has done a deal with the Government to effectively suspend their franchise terms and have basically transitioned into being merely tools of the DfT.

 

Service levels going forward will thus be specified by the DfT who will be looking to keep a tight rein on costs (i.e. carting fresh air about) while at the same time making sure the service that remains is attractive enough that people will still find train services frequent enough that they see it as an attractive option in accordance with the moral responsibility to try and fight climate change.

 

Given research proves that train frequencies make a big difference to how attractive rail travel is perceived I would expect the cost cutting to focus more on running things like shorter trains where possible and reforms to staffing costs* than radical service cuts.

 

 

* Which will no doubt be resisted by the strike happy RMT of course who are already spoiling for a fight with Boris.

Not necessarily, there has been a lot of note taken that running fewer short trains has improved reliability so longer trains at a more manageable frequency is the likely outcome - same number of seats per hour so still a good headline. Certainly the Castlefield Corridor is working much better under such rules.

 

Down south, the advent of fixed length trains (345/745/700/717) means that only frequency can be adjusted. Even in the midlands, 2*2car is becoming 1*4 car under the new class 196 fleet.

[billbedford]

I hope these new hard hats are not going to delay work too much...

[corneliuslundie]

I can think of a worse "expert" for them to turn to. He also does nature programmes and I gather he is not much better there (I don't watch telly).

Jonathan

[Northmoor]

2 hours ago, jamie92208 said:

He has also been a vocal opponent  of HS2 for many years. Hardly an independent  voice.

 

Jamie

He was a also a Labour candidate for London mayor, during the period when the party's answer to any issue relating to the railways was Nationalisation, irrespective of the question.  As I said before, I don't think Christian knows nothing - far from it - but he has less knowledge than many others and does often quote his opinion as if it were indisputable fact.  However, when an "expert" is required by the mainstream media and unlike any other profession, "Availability" is a skill and one he applies very astutely.

[pete_mcfarlane]

16 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

He was a also a Labour candidate for London mayor, during the period when the party's answer to any issue relating to the railways was Nationalisation, irrespective of the question.  As I said before, I don't think Christian knows nothing - far from it - but he has less knowledge than many others and does often quote his opinion as if it were indisputable fact.  However, when an "expert" is required by the mainstream media and unlike any other profession, "Availability" is a skill and one he applies very astutely.

The BBC seem to have used him a lot less frequently since he stood as a Labour candidate, so we no longer get his unbiased and impartial expert opinion on why his political opponents are wrong. 

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, billbedford said:

I hope these new hard hats are not going to delay work too much...

 

Actually I think they are a good idea!

 

Firstly humans are social creatures and it remains very unnatural to keep your distance from work colleagues or friends

 

Secondly you can only concentrate on so many things at a time. If a problem or task crops up involving two or more people that requires a lot of attention its very easy to forget about social distancing in the heat of the moment as it were. I myself have come a cropper to this as last week 2 of us got involved in explaining something complex to an apprentice and before we knew it we were all within 2 meters of each other looking over diagram books on the mess room table without facemasks on. My colleague has subsequently tested positive for Covid so its self isolation for me and the apprentice now. Those hard hats or similar devices would have prevented that close contact situation from occurring.

[Mike Storey]

This should cheer (most of) us up!!

 

https://www.therailwayhub.co.uk/56676/shapps-hs2-will-be-critical-unless-humans-can-teleport-themselves/

 

Extract from Shapp's report and grilling on the Commons Transport Committee, yesterday (transcript not yet available on the gov website, so this chap must have been watching).