Turning Wish Lists into Reality?

[orcadian]

Kernow Model Rail Centre seem to have been the ones to get the concept of much-wanted models being produced by big manufacturers as exclusive limited editions for a particular retailler. Or have they actually turned the wheel almost full circle? In the early post-war years (late 40s and early 50s) the big three British manufacturers (Hornby Dublo, Trian and Trix-Twin had very thin catalogues. But EAMES, and a few other model railway shops, offered their own products to broaden the range. I am thinking of the various 3-rail locos using HD chassis with or without modifications. This was also the time when GEM, Ks, et al were producing their white metal body kits.

 

Kernow have focused, logically, on their surrounding area with the Bodmin Well Tank and the Baby Warship, then ventured a little further afield with the Thumpers.

 

Hattons started with the Class 14, and now have revived the Co-Bo, which, as their web-site article explains, became a 'signature loco' for them when they cleared so much from the closing Binns Road facility.

 

Showing equal regional loyalty, Olivia's at Sheffield have entered the market with their local much-requested Class 76, and the Blue Pullman, in its Midland form wasn't too far away from home either.

 

Some of the model railway magazines are also now putting their toes in to test the water with exclusive models, rather than just exclusive liveries.

 

Now I am wondering if there is a big enough retailler anywhere in South East England to go for one or two 'missing' South Eastern types? After all, Bachmann have, it seems, found just how well the 4-CEP has filled a void, and hopefully the 2-EPB will also be a good seller, similarly Hornby's VEP adventure. Hornby could, perhaps, bring the Southern L1 back to life alongside the Schools, Arthurs, Q1s and Bulleid Pacifics, but would anyone be brave enough to give us a C class 0-6-0, the workhorse of Kent in the 1950s, or any of the light 4-4-0s which kept the Civil Engineers happy with their low weight limits? A Class H 0-4-4 tank might be another candidate, as the 00 Works one is a very limited edition.

 

For those who are also longing for R-T-R small or medium Scottish steam locos, is there a big enough retailler 'beyond the wall' to think about commissioning a loco or two?

 

So, in very short, is trying to persuade a suitable large regional retailler perhaps the way to go, rather than our submitting our perpetual wish lists directly to the big manufacturers? Any suitable candidates who are reading this, or any readers with suitable associations, might think it worthwhile discussing this - or has it all been said before? I wonder!

 

Richard.

[Allegheny1600]

Hi Richard,

Are you saying that we, the hobbist, should be lobbying our local 'big' retailers for such things or are you wanting to know who the suitable 'big' retailers are?

 

The market certainly does seem to be progressing along the lines you mention - largely!

There has been recent talk on here of the southern based retailer who proposed the Leader project and yet that has gone very quiet over this past year or so.

On the other hand, look at the likes of Footplate Models who get Dapol to manufacture for them.

If a retailer is prepared to accept the financial risks involved, certainly firms like Dapol & Heljan seem willing to work with them - Bachmann and Hornby seem much more cautious in this respect!

I suspect if these two companies were to become more involved with this type of venture, then yes! We would see a whole lot more models of this kind appearing.

However,

Can the overall market really sustain such a lot of new models, assuming sufficient manufacturing capacity to produce?

Suppose i wanted a pair of locos from each of the most recent announcements? (Class 28 & 76).

Thats going to be in the order of £500 or more.

Not to mention any new releases of rolling stock to go with them, perhaps!

I begin to think that there may not be quite enough cash in the market place for too many new releases every year - especially in these times of fiscal strife!

 

Therefore, perhaps we should make the most of what we've got available NOW and if new items come along, well and good but let's not push the market too hard, eh?

Cheers,

John E.

[woodenhead]

In order for a retailer to venture into this area then there must be an underlying demand.

 

Is it possible that the manufacturers influence the retailers a little to spread the risk rather than a retailer simply plucking a model that they think will sell well without any market research - research that is probably in the domain of the manufacturers.

[The Stationmaster]

Hi Richard,

Are you saying that we, the hobbist, should be lobbying our local 'big' retailers for such things or are you wanting to know who the suitable 'big' retailers are?

 

The market certainly does seem to be progressing along the lines you mention - largely!

There has been recent talk on here of the southern based retailer who proposed the Leader project and yet that has gone very quiet over this past year or so.

On the other hand, look at the likes of Footplate Models who get Dapol to manufacture for them.

If a retailer is prepared to accept the financial risks involved, certainly firms like Dapol & Heljan seem willing to work with them - Bachmann and Hornby seem much more cautious in this respect!

I suspect if these two companies were to become more involved with this type of venture, then yes! We would see a whole lot more models of this kind appearing.

However,

Can the overall market really sustain such a lot of new models, assuming sufficient manufacturing capacity to produce?

Suppose i wanted a pair of locos from each of the most recent announcements? (Class 28 & 76).

Thats going to be in the order of £500 or more.

Not to mention any new releases of rolling stock to go with them, perhaps!

I begin to think that there may not be quite enough cash in the market place for too many new releases every year - especially in these times of fiscal strife!

 

Therefore, perhaps we should make the most of what we've got available NOW and if new items come along, well and good but let's not push the market too hard, eh?

Cheers,

John E.

 

 

I think that's a very realistic comment, especially in view of noises about possible increases in the VAT rate and other potential impacts on incomes in the coming year. Being very parochial this year there's at least one more 'Castle', the Hornby 28XX and their Hawksworth coaches to tickle my wallet, plus whatever wagons Bachamann add for my chosen(ish) period plus, hopefully, layout building at the back end of the year. So fortunately none of the latest rash of announcements are of much interest to me although a really nice EM1 would be very tempting.

 

But what all of these things are also doing is squeezing the money available to spend with the 'big two' and if that squeeze hits their sales the result will be a cutback of investment - already perhaps something of a perilous gamble in our present economic situation. The marketeers at Hornby and Bachmann are going to have to become increasingly sophisticated in choosing what they will bring to market if they are to retain market share and the goodwill of their management accountants.

 

So I too am questioning not only if the market is big enough for everything currently heading towards it, but also wondering if the 'niche market' is going to threaten the main market? Hopefully my worries are groundless - but is there really going to be that much money about for hobby spending in the coming year or two?

[Guest dilbert]

Some of the current announcements have the potential of being suspended or even cancelled - nothing to do with the hobby, but linked to measures that will need to be introduced to repair the hole in a threadbare UK public purse. A rise in VAT* is a likely candidate - if so then this will influence people to spend differently and one of the first items to come under the household budget microscope will be leisure/hobby interests.

 

Interesting to note that not only retailers are dipping their toe into the water, the NRM has done so and maybe one of the preservation lines could be tempted. It's all about ROI and what the market can be seen to bear...dilbert

 

* a VAT rate of 20% would impact significantly compared to the temporary rate of 15% in 2009.

[Oldddudders]

If a retailer is prepared to accept the financial risks involved, certainly firms like Dapol & Heljan seem willing to work with them - Bachmann and Hornby seem much more cautious in this respect!

Umm! Am I missing something here? Surely the recent transfer of the Kernow Hampshire unit from Dapol to Bachmann suggests that Big B is prepared to talk turkey with retailers & do the procuring? And Bachmann have already delivered on the LSWR signalbox for Kernow - ok so it ain't no train, but it is nice, and I have one so am v grateful! I believe the whole point about the Chinese factories is that they can and do make short production runs, so if anyone can get their drawings together, then all they need is a competent intermediary, and Bachmann and Hornby fit the bill. The problems arise when the intermediary is having production delays and arguments with the factories, imperilling his own bottom line. In those circumstances, comma, he may not be very aggressive in pushing through John Retailer's pet project!

[Dave777]

I think Mike raises some good points. It's an interesting situation - we clamour for new models and wider ranges, and yet surely the market must have a finite limit to how many sales it can support? This being the case, the concern is that sooner or later someone will commission something and then get badly burnt with lots of unsold stock. And the longer it goes on, the more likely this will happen as the number of releases saturates the market and everyone's wallet gets that little bit emptier. I wonder if what we're experiencing right now is actually the peak of the RTR release rate and in, say, 5 years time we won't be experiencing so many.

 

What I've pondered on is how much support and advice the likes of Bachmann and/or Dapol provide when someone approaches them about doing a new model. If I went to Bachmann and said 'I'd like to produce a model of the Frobisher Class 987 from 1923' would they say 'Sure' or 'No, that would never sell'? Do they just let people produce whatever they like, essentially acting as a simple production factory, or do they provide help and advice on the market and what a suitable model would be? If this isn't the case, that makes me a lot more concerned.

 

You would hope that people would make use of these additional facilities (for example, I can't see how the NRM would have been able to proceed without using them really), but I don't know for sure.

[JohnR]

I think the question about whether the market can stand all these commisions is a good one. However, is it possible that these things are expanding the market? I mean, someone may not have been a modeller, but remembers the BP from childhood, hears about the model, buys it and is suddenly introduced to the world of railway modelling?

 

Just a thought.

[Guest Phil]

I think the question about whether the market can stand all these commisions is a good one. However, is it possible that these things are expanding the market? I mean, someone may not have been a modeller, but remembers the BP from childhood, hears about the model, buys it and is suddenly introduced to the world of railway modelling?

 

Just a thought.

 

In your particular case John R (Blue Pullman)- no, but very possibly in other situations. The recent announcement about the MSW 1500v DC electric might be a classic. I wonder how many of those will live in a glass case with no volts ever touching the motor.

 

Old Dudders words are very real though. We in the UK are going to be stung quite severely with taxes of different forms, as well as increasing energy prices. On top of that, the expensive oil makes plastic more expensive and the transportation of every else more expensive.

 

Sorry to keep harping on about this but I believe Bachmann's strategy for "pocket money" wagons and very competitively priced locos and units provides a pretty good pointer on the direction we should be looking. After all, DELTIC and City of Truro under their belt and the Kernow thumper on the way.

[Pennine MC]

 

What I've pondered on is how much support and advice the likes of Bachmann and/or Dapol provide when someone approaches them about doing a new model. If I went to Bachmann and said 'I'd like to produce a model of the Frobisher Class 987 from 1923' would they say 'Sure' or 'No, that would never sell'? Do they just let people produce whatever they like, essentially acting as a simple production factory, or do they provide help and advice on the market and what a suitable model would be? If this isn't the case, that makes me a lot more concerned.

 

 

Pure speculation here, but for a 'new' model I would expect there'd be some sort of dialogue, based on the manufacturer's idea of the market but dependent also on the commissioning party's knowledge and track record. With a simple relivery on, say, an existing wagon, I'd imagine the manufacturer might just be satisfied with having their agreed costs covered, with the retailer or whoever taking the risk of unsold models

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

... I wonder if what we're experiencing right now is actually the peak of the RTR release rate and in, say, 5 years time we won't be experiencing so many...

The main focus of this current flurry of commissions is the traction that replaced steam. There's plenty of 'unclaimed' types to keep that running at the present rate for fve years, if the customer demand proves to be solid. (Bulleid's various diesel and electric types, the Kerosene Castles, the Fell, DP2, classes 16, 21/29, more things MU than you can quickly shake a stick at, to name a few.)

 

... we clamour for new models and wider ranges, and yet surely the market must have a finite limit to how many sales it can support? This being the case, the concern is that sooner or later someone will commission something and then get badly burnt with lots of unsold stock. And the longer it goes on, the more likely this will happen as the number of releases saturates the market and everyone's wallet gets that little bit emptier...

Look at the comment made on the Rails of Sheffield announcement of 10000/10001, concerning the need for something other than 37s and 47s: that is where the saturation has occurred, and there probably is a falling demand for these. Got to have something different to offer to continue to make sales in that market sector is the message I read in that.

[Pennine MC]

.. I wonder if what we're experiencing right now is actually the peak of the RTR release rate and in, say, 5 years time we won't be experiencing so many...

The main focus of this current flurry of commissions is the traction that replaced steam. There's plenty of 'unclaimed' types to keep that running at the present rate for fve years, if the customer demand proves to be solid. (Bulleid's various diesel and electric types, the Kerosene Castles, the Fell, DP2, classes 16, 21/29, more things MU than you can quickly shake a stick at, to name a few.)

 

 

Putting a personal perspective on that, but one I suspect is shared by others of a certain age: the recent and ongoing 'gap filling' is in respect of the sort of types that we know of and can probably remember in service, but that we always said would never justify a model. OK, the rules have changed and they do now, but they're still not likely to justify multiple retoolings in the way that some of the mainstream types have. Hence I look on this period as being possibly the only chance to obtain said model(s), even if it's something like the 15, that I have a definite need for, whereas I can pick up say another 20 or 27 relatively easily secondhand. There's obviously an expense, but my hand is inevitably forced to some degree. Multiply that effect enough times and that will bolster the market, albeit probably not for ever due to the other factors mentioned above

[Guest Phil]

So with a bit of "off the wall" speculation then - are either of the Kerosene castle's bogies wheelbases anything like the LMS twins ?

 

Or shouldn't I have asked that

[Dave777]

...if the customer demand proves to be solid....

 

Ahhhh yes... if...

 

 

The key point for me is that as we get further and further into the more esoteric items then the market will get smaller. Of course, the debate then centres around which items are considered niché and which are mainstream. To pick one example, personally I would consider the Fell loco to be niché, but others would disagree. I would have considered Lion of Kestrel niché too, so I'm fully prepared to be proved utterly wrong.

 

Ian makes a good point however about the 'get 'em while you can' approach, and this is even more interesting in the light of the apparently tiny numbers that the Class 28 will be appearing in. I mean, even I'm getting one of those and it's not even the same scale I model in

 

This does then raise a question around someone else producing a longer run alternative. To give a purely speculative example, what if Heljan do 2000 Class 28s and they sell out very quickly and command big prices on eBay, do Hornby then think 'Clearly a market there for more sales, let's produce our own and make 10,000 of them'? It's almost like letting someone else test the water - if it doesn't sell, steer clear, if it does, consider producing one to sit in the catalogue for a few years to grab those customers who missed out.

 

Usual final comments: purely guessing, these people know more about selling model railways than I do, etc, yawn, etc.

 

There's a lot of factors to consider, that's for sure.

[10800]

So with a bit of "off the wall" speculation then - are either of the Kerosene castle's bogies wheelbases anything like the LMS twins ?

 

Phil, see http://www.clag.org.uk/wheelbase.html

 

I would say not, depends how accurate you want to be. 18100 is closer, but still about 1 cm difference in bogie-bogie spacing.

[Invicta]

The main focus of this current flurry of commissions is the traction that replaced steam. There's plenty of 'unclaimed' types to keep that running at the present rate for fve years, if the customer demand proves to be solid. (Bulleid's various diesel and electric types, the Kerosene Castles, the Fell, DP2, classes 16, 21/29, more things MU than you can quickly shake a stick at, to name a few.)

 

 

Look at the comment made on the Rails of Sheffield announcement of 10000/10001, concerning the need for something other than 37s and 47s: that is where the saturation has occurred, and there probably is a falling demand for these. Got to have something different to offer to continue to make sales in that market sector is the message I read in that.

 

 

I see what you mean about market saturation- in a difficult market, something all-new with a real 'must-have' factor about it might well be an easier sell for the retailer than yet another limited edition relivery of the BachViTrains 47 as '47999 in April 1996 Little Snoring TMD Open Day special livery'

 

On the other hand, bearing in mind what Dlibert, Phil and others said a few posts back about likely VAT increases and rising production and raw materials costs, I wouldn't be that surprised if sooner or later we see a cancellation of one of these, or worse, the price pushed so high that the retailer who commissioned it might well catch a cold on sales.... I don't really want to bring politics into this, but we're in an environment where big public sector cuts- and therefore job losses- are almost a certainty, and a combination of a lot of modellers with reduced disposable income coupled with rising prices might make some of these commissions harder to sell than they might have been even a few months ago.

 

As someone who's already been hit by this scenario (redundancy from a public sector employer a couple of years back followed by a new job working in the voluntary sector at a substantial pay cut, and at risk of it happening again), I'm currently watching these announcements with little more than academic interest- the last loco of any kind I bought was the Heljan Kestrel, mainly because I already had it on order.

 

As much as I'd like a Truro, Teddy Bear, Beattie Well Tank, Co-Bo 76 or B**e P*ll**n as a collectors item and something different to run on club nights and open days, in modelling terms, they're pure indulgences; they're not actually neccessary or even relevant for any layout I'm ever likely to build, so right now (with the probable exception of the Rails/Bachmann LMS Twins) I'm not biting- and I wonder how many more there are like me out there- or soon could be?

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

There's another side effect to this flurry of activity that we haven't discussed: with the Blue Pullman and several other potential 'fixture at the top of the wishlists' models announced for production, what are the 'Iwanna' herd going to group around now? I foresee years of confusion until a new clear favourite emerges at the top of the charts...

[Guest Phil]

There's another side effect to this flurry of activity that we haven't discussed: with the Blue Pullman and several other potential 'fixture at the top of the wishlists' models announced for production, what are the 'Iwanna' herd going to group around now? I foresee years of confusion until a new clear favourite emerges at the top of the charts...

 

 

Simples

 

10201-10203

 

They ran on the LMR as well as the SR and were a very sexy looking diesel - in fact IMHO sharing with just one other class (Westerns) a coaching stock curved body profile.

 

Put me down for 10203 in BR green please.

 

Bachmann class 40 chassis ?

[10800]

10201-10203

 

They ran on the LMR as well as the SR and were a very sexy looking diesel - in fact IMHO sharing with just one other class (Westerns) a coaching stock curved body profile.

 

Class 71 electrics also

[Ian J.]

Class 71 electrics also

Don't forget the ED 74s, and even the original 70s (20001-3), plus a 73 to current standards, too...

['CHARD]

Not sure the 73 shared the Mk1 profile, mind you, perhaps the GUV and CCT

[10800]

Class 71 electrics also

 

 

Don't forget the ED 74s, and even the original 70s (20001-3), plus a 73 to current standards, too...

 

As 'Chard picked up, I was referring to the curved body profile not (necessarily) adding to the wish list

[Oldddudders]

Don't forget the ED 74s, and even the original 70s (20001-3), plus a 73 to current standards, too...

Actually, I think a some people would like to forget the "Big EDL" 74s! They were not a riproaring success. ISTR hearing at the time that the first was towed from Crewe to Eastleigh, a key was put on it, there was a loud bang, and it was towed back to Crewe. A typical "make do and mend" Southern idea that, unusually, failed to achieve its potential. CC1-3 (as Norwood Yard staff were still wont to call them in 1969!) were a much better story, and the EDL (73) needs no praise from me!

[Colin_McLeod]

Murphy's Models and Bachmann certainly hit the right notes with the CIE/IR B141 class locos and Cravens coaches, with more projects in the pipeline.

 

The batch of Bachmann RPSI liveried Mk2 coaches resulted in funds raised for railway preservation so it is Win Win all round

[AMJ]

5BEL unit might be feasible not sure how similar the centre cars are to ordinary Pullman stock. Remember that Wrenn did this some time ago.

 

Some of the 'exclusives' I could go for if the maker went into the mass market with the item as a catalogue item at a suitable price.