Panic buying

[bbishop]

17 hours ago, laurenceb said:

Sorry,  community first responder ( B Bishop of this parish is one I think)

Yes, but off sick at the moment with a bu99ered knee.  Trying to arrange double shifts.  Bill

[APOLLO]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

I think petrol stations were probably better stocked then.

This hasn't just started with a handful of stations stocking out.  I am pretty sure that the producers have been holding back deliveries for as long as they sensibly could and priorising those stations closest to running out.   Consequently just about all of the stations were running on lower than usual stock unless they had just received a delivery.    A delay in delivery of a couple of days would normally not be a problem but as the driver shortage has become more and more acute, a couple of days stretches to nearly a week and then the cracks start to show. 

 

What it means is that on average stations were carrying less fuel in their tanks than usual and hence why many places have run out very quickly.  

 

One of the stations interviewed on Saturday had said that their Friday sales were three times the normal and so they now had no fuel and no replenishment for 8-9 days.  If 3 times normal daily take empties the tanks then without panic buying they would have been out of fuel by the end of the weekend anyway.  That I think is the tightrope that has been trod probably for many months by the oil producers.

 

And this won't help either

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/26/uk-essar-energy-second-biggest-oil-refinery-on-brink-of-collapse-reports

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10029847/Stanlow-Oil-Refinery-chiefs-hold-crisis-talks-HMRC-223m-VAT-bill-amid-fears-collapse.html

 

Brit15

Edited September 26, 2021 by APOLLO

[big jim]

21 minutes ago, spikey said:

 

382 calories apparently.  And over 40% fat ...

whoops!
 

I’ve just been going on weight watchers showing egg as being a zero point food, I think a lot of that fat/carbs is probably the bread anyway, May as well have a McDonald’s double sausage muffin if that’s the case

saying that being out on my bike today has burned off 1300 calories with another ride to do to the station later 

 

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, spikey said:

 

382 calories apparently.  And over 40% fat ...

I thought Greggs sprayed everyone with fat as they walked through the door 

[Andy Hayter]

56 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

 

And this won't help either

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/26/uk-essar-energy-second-biggest-oil-refinery-on-brink-of-collapse-reports

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10029847/Stanlow-Oil-Refinery-chiefs-hold-crisis-talks-HMRC-223m-VAT-bill-amid-fears-collapse.html

 

Brit15

Be assured, Stanlow will not shut overnight.  The receiver would ensure that and since the major creditor is HMRC worst case would be nationalisation.

[zarniwhoop]

6 hours ago, SamThomas said:

Every logistics company I have worked for in the past (except 1 - a well known supermarket) say that pulling smartly away & getting into the highest gear practivable is better for overall fuel economy - with all their investments in telematics that should tell you something.

For a truck ?  If so, "smartly" might be a bit different from what that means to Audi and BMW drivers.

 

Myself, I drive an auto Merc A-class (second series) diesel and I try to drive economically - it annoys me when people drive at about 30 in a 40 limit in good conditions, but what always surprises me is how slowly many people set off from traffic lights - I suppose some of it is having to change gear, but a lot of people seem to think that driving slowly, and therefore in low gears, is economical. As a grauniad reader, I tend to believe they've been taken in by the crêpe in that and other newspapers. 

 

Oh, sorry, I seem to be off-topic for panic buying.

 

[SM42]

7 hours ago, SamThomas said:

Every logistics company I have worked for in the past (except 1 - a well known supermarket) say that pulling smartly away & getting into the highest gear practivable is better for overall fuel economy - with all their investments in telematics that should tell you something.

 

The on board computer shows it better to accelerate from standing  slowly rather than quickly but I'm certainly in top pretty quick  and trying to keep around 2000rpm to maximise power where the speed limit allows.

 

The registered economy on the trip computer has increased by 1% since Friday. Not bad for  commuting to Brum ( just the 62 sets of traffic lights in just over 20 miles)

 

Timing junctions to avoid having to stop makes a difference  as does coasting in gear, clutch engaged,  down hills.  

 

Shortages here and there were being reported for several days before Friday and there was no panic buying.  On Friday morning things were normal.

 

What changed on Friday was the government saying don't panic buy.  That was the catalyst that changed sporadic minor shortages at  handful of sites  into a full scale stampede

 

They wouldn't say don't panic if there wasn't a problem seems to be the logic every time. 

 

If you are a politician in any government, anywhere,  the phrase "don't panic" should not be in your vocabulary 

 

I'm hoping common sense will beak out soon. 

 

Andy

[SM42]

13 hours ago, Neil said:

 

I'm not so sure. I believe that most would see health and social care provision as a priority and would support spending in this area. Who gets to pay for it is determined by the government who choose where the tax burden falls. None of this should be seen as detracting from the excellent and public spirited service of first responders.

 

When the Lib Dems suggested a 1% increase in income tax to fund provision  of health and  care services  it went down like a lead balloon, the uproar over the increase in NI now ( hits more  people than income tax increases) and the popularity of tax cutting manifestos over the last 40 years would suggest otherwise

 

The preference seems to be cut something else to find the money, don't ask us to pay more.

 

Anyway we are in danger of going  now

 

Andy

Edited September 26, 2021 by SM42

[Colin_McLeod]

[SM42]

I am reminded of the song spoof of Craig David's 7 days  that was on some radio stations back in 2000. 

The words are thus:

 

 Bought a car on Monday

Tried to fill it up on Tuesday 

Tried again on Wednesday,and on  Thursday, on Friday and Saturday 

Gave up on Sunday "

 

Andy

[SamThomas]

3 hours ago, zarniwhoop said:

For a truck ?  If so, "smartly" might be a bit different from what that means to Audi and BMW drivers.

 

Same principle for anything powered that moves - get to cruising speed ASAP "smartly" as relative to the vehicle.

Judging traffic lights & reading the road ahead to avoid turning your momentum into heat via the brakes will pay far more dividends than too slow acceleration.

 

FWIW, I drive a diesel Range Rover & it's far better on fuel if I accelerate "smartly" to get into a high gear than if I pull away too gently.

[rockershovel]

Exactly. Changing velocity consumes energy. Slow down, you need to replace that momentum. Speed up and you are supplying energy to increase momentum. Cornering requires energy to change trajectory but you don't have much option about that, although momentum changes into change of velocity (remember, a change of velocity can be a change of direction at the same speed) so cornering technique matters. 

[rockershovel]

 Meanwhile, a structural problem has been turned into a behavioural problem. Once people start behaving irrationally, it's very difficult to get them to stop. The shortage of HGV drivers is nothing new, I've been reading about it in industry publications for at least five years. I stopped to fill up on Friday afternoon at a local 8-pump garage which didn't seem crowded, by the time I had filled and paid there must have been forty to fifty drivers queueing out of the entrances. 

[hayfield]

13 hours ago, boxbrownie said:

I thought Greggs sprayed everyone with fat as they walked through the door 

 

We had the unfortunate experience to stop at the service area on the A303 which has a Greggs outlet, there was only one staff member visible and (I guess understandingly) short on products, but the seating/dining area was filthy. I have no idea if it was Greggs responsibility or another contractor, but it deserved to be shut down. It clearly showed Greggs in a very bad light. We sanitised ourselves on both going in and out it was that bad

[Neil]

11 hours ago, SM42 said:

 

When the Lib Dems suggested a 1% increase in income tax to fund provision  of health and  care services  it went down like a lead balloon, the uproar over the increase in NI now ( hits more  people than income tax increases) and the popularity of tax cutting manifestos over the last 40 years would suggest otherwise

 

The preference seems to be cut something else to find the money, don't ask us to pay more.

 

Anyway we are in danger of going  now

 

Andy

 

Taxation can be targeted at those best able to afford an increase. Some governments protect that section of society by selling the concept that low and middle incomes will get swept up in tax rises too. Doesn't have to be that way. However way, way off topic, I'm afraid.

[boxbrownie]

11 hours ago, SM42 said:

 

When the Lib Dems suggested a 1% increase in income tax to fund provision  of health and  care services  it went down like a lead balloon, the uproar over the increase in NI now ( hits more  people than income tax increases) and the popularity of tax cutting manifestos over the last 40 years would suggest otherwise

 

Andy

Well everyone we knew thought it a good idea, unfortunately the takes out number the gives 

[Colin_McLeod]

To link this thread to model railways; 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/148688735244151/permalink/4158575117588806/?sfnsn=mo&ref=share

Edited September 27, 2021 by Colin_McLeod

[F-UnitMad]

 

Sound advice, I think!!

[SamThomas]

51 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

We had the unfortunate experience to stop at the service area on the A303 which has a Greggs outlet, there was only one staff member visible and (I guess understandingly) short on products, but the seating/dining area was filthy. I have no idea if it was Greggs responsibility or another contractor, but it deserved to be shut down. It clearly showed Greggs in a very bad light. We sanitised ourselves on both going in and out it was that bad

AFAIK the Greggs in some or all of the motorway style service areas are operated as a franchise.

When I drove away from home (thesedays no "overnights) there was a marked difference in standards between a high street & roadside outlet.

[Reorte]

3 hours ago, rockershovel said:

 Meanwhile, a structural problem has been turned into a behavioural problem. Once people start behaving irrationally, it's very difficult to get them to stop. The shortage of HGV drivers is nothing new, I've been reading about it in industry publications for at least five years. I stopped to fill up on Friday afternoon at a local 8-pump garage which didn't seem crowded, by the time I had filled and paid there must have been forty to fifty drivers queueing out of the entrances. 

There's a problem with what can be society overall behaving irrationally isn't necessarily the same as each individual behaving irrationally, at least once things have started to snowball. If you need fuel you need fuel, and if it's starting to run out, no matter how silly the reason, the individual rational decision is arguably to get it now even if normally you'd wait a few days.

 

Note that I haven't refilled, I'm not trying to excuse my own actions here! I'll need to in the next day or two, I'm hoping that the rush will have died down by then.  I generally prefer to just deal with whatever the situation with something is at the time I need it.

Edited September 27, 2021 by Reorte

[Titan]

20 minutes ago, Reorte said:

There's a problem with what can be society overall behaving irrationally isn't necessarily the same as each individual behaving irrationally, at least once things have started to snowball. If you need fuel you need fuel, and if it's starting to run out, no matter how silly the reason, the individual rational decision is arguably to get it now even if normally you'd wait a few days.

 

This is absolutely true - if you have half a tank which would normally last you for a couple of days commuting to work, and you would normally fill up on the way home from work when the tank is almost empty, then because of the actions of others you are forced to fill up now because you might not be able to when you need it in a few days time if the idiocy continues.

[Michael Hodgson]

11 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Note that I haven't refilled, I'm not trying to excuse my own actions here! I'll need to in the next day or two, I'm hoping that the rush will have died down by then.  I generally prefer to just deal with whatever the situation with something is at the time I need it.

I wish you luck, but I rather fear you'll soon hit the problem as I doubt it will go away anywhere near as quickly as it arose.  500 visas is all very well, but that assumes there's 500 foreign lorry drivers who want to come here, are available for work now, have all heard about it in their foreign press, don't have to give notice to current employers and can figure out how to get one of these new visas.  Frankly, I don't see all that happening in 24 hours.  These visas will expire at Xmas, which is when the first few applicants have probably just got one.  

 

If you want a faster solution, you've got to bringing the troops in or redirect other HGV drivers (eg those currently hauling containers) onto tankers.  They'll have to know about loading/unloading/fire precautions etc too.  And if they stop hauling containers, who's moving our groceries?  I don't want to get political but I hope the turkeys who voted for Xmas enjoy it. 

[APOLLO]

Turkeys in short supply all ready. People are gobbling them up !!!!

 

Crazy days

 

Brit15

[SamThomas]

500 drivers will make very little difference anyway.

 

For a start, you have to find 500 drivers desperate to work in the UK - 3 x months until Christmas then off you go to look for work in their own countries during January - they are having a giraff.

 

These drivers will also remember the inhumane conditions they had to put with on the M20/Manstone Airport a few months ago.

 

There will inevitably have to be some sort of priorities - fuel for essential workers to get to work, food to take priority over stuff you cannot eat.

 

If us HGV drivers cannot get to the depots (I'm 40 miles away from mine & my early start precludes using public transport) the company I work for have suggested that we may have to take the trucks home - that will please the neighbours.

Edited September 27, 2021 by SamThomas

[black and decker boy]

6 minutes ago, Michael Hodgson said:

I wish you luck, but I rather fear you'll soon hit the problem as I doubt it will go away anywhere near as quickly as it arose.  500 visas is all very well, but that assumes there's 500 foreign lorry drivers who want to come here, are available for work now, have all heard about it in their foreign press, don't have to give notice to current employers and can figure out how to get one of these new visas.  Frankly, I don't see all that happening in 24 hours.  These visas will expire at Xmas, which is when the first few applicants have probably just got one.  

 

If you want a faster solution, you've got to bringing the troops in or redirect other HGV drivers (eg those currently hauling containers) onto tankers.  They'll have to know about loading/unloading/fire precautions etc too.  And if they stop hauling containers, who's moving our groceries?  I don't want to get political but I hope the turkeys who voted for Xmas enjoy it. 

But the industry & trade reps have said all along that there isn’t a big problem with tanker drivers nationally, it was more a supplier specific issue affecting mainly BP last week

 

occasional (read a few times per year) shortages have been my life for at least 5 years where a forecourt has run out of either diesel or unleaded whilst awaiting a delivery. It’s never triggered panic buying, just a longer drive to the next forecourt.

 

we now have a bigger problem in that most forecourts need a delivery urgently but with only the same number of drivers & tankers we had for a planned & normal replenishment routine. That will take some time to resolve itself