Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[Hal Nail]

On 17/12/2020 at 12:30, Nearholmer said:

Legend - I strongly agree with you that the "meet as few people as possible" (or perhaps even "go near as few people as possible") message hasn't been pumped loud and clear enough, that ought to be the "front stop", with Tiers, which probably are necessary, as the "back stop".

Thought provoking piece i read on here somewhere that most people don't concentrate for more than the 5 seconds it takes to partially digest the headlines. They certainly wouldn't listen to the politicians speaking so will have taken in "meet 3 families for christmas" and if that suits them wont give it any further thought.

 

Listened to my neighbour bellow down the phone a friend to clarify the rules and the gist of it seemed to be "i don't understand any of it but tracey from 37 did XYZ last week and she said she was fine so i think thats ok".

 

And shes the brighter of the two - the other one religiously wears a hat to stop it getting in her ears.

 

 

[Nearholmer]

Well, the news says:

 

"PM Boris Johnson says he is "hoping to avoid" another national lockdown.... "

 

Based on the way the that his hopes about various things seem to have a nasty habit of not coming to fruition, I'd say that means we are going to have another full lockdown soon. Which is depressing. But possibly necessary.

 

As ever, needs a bit of poking about to get to the up-to-date figure, but it looks as if the number of new cases in the city where I live in the seven days to today is double what it was in the seven days before that - the case rate has taken-off like a rocket. To today well over 500/100k.week.

 

Our postal test kits ordered under the "test everybody in the family of a secondary school age child" initiative arrived this afternoon, and I'm not entirely sure we want to get the results!

 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Nearholmer

[EddieB]

I’m not sure what result you want, or fear, but why worry if everyone in the family appears healthy?  From what you’ve said, no sign currently of any symptoms (not just the headline ones), it’s likely to be negative for all of you, anyway.  (I hope so, for your sakes, assuming that’s what you want).

 

What is really needed is testing for the antibodies, to see whether you’ve had the virus undetected and have developed some immunity.

[Nearholmer]

We all seem to be fine, thanks, but I'm a natural pessimist, so don't want to know in case we get positive results ....... yes, that's right, its irrational.

 

A good friend of mine has had the antibody test as part of one of the random-sample studies, but is still waiting for a result three weeks later, so its not one for the impatient.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Bernard Lamb]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Well, the news says:

 

"PM Boris Johnson says he is "hoping to avoid" another national lockdown.... "

 

Based on the way the that his hopes about various things seem to have a nasty habit of not coming to fruition, I'd say that means we are going to have another full lockdown soon. Which is depressing. But possibly necessary.

 

 

 

 

No need to worry. Have faith in our beloved leader. Around May the 8th to the 10th he said that although restrictions would be eased he would not do anything that might risk a second spike.

I sometimes wonder if this is actually happening or that I am just having a very bad dream.  

Bernard

[Satan's Goldfish]

5 hours ago, EddieB said:

 

 

What is really needed is testing for the antibodies, to see whether you’ve had the virus undetected and have developed some immunity.

 

I don't know all the science behind it or how long the antibodies last, but a test i am able to get through work is able to tell us if we currently have Covid or have had it in the last 3 months (if it's a positive result we'd then have to go and have an NHS test anyway as our private tests don't count towards the totals!) which is annoying because i may have had it right at the very start but will now likely never know whether it was or not.

 

I'm sure i'd seen/heard reports of some unlucky people catching it more than once, from that and the fact our tests only 'look back' 3 months i'm not sure if there is a way of developing an immunity like that. A lot more studying is probably required there.

[Nearholmer]

23 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

"PM Boris Johnson says he is "hoping to avoid" another national lockdown.... "

 

Based on the way the that his hopes about various things seem to have a nasty habit of not coming to fruition, I'd say that means we are going to have another full lockdown soon.

 

Well, Tier 4 is very close indeed to Lockdown as per the spring, isn't it? Not "national" though, so his hope has been fulfilled on a technicality thus far.

[woodenhead]

5 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Well, Tier 4 is very close indeed to Lockdown as per the spring, isn't it? Not "national" though, so his hope has been fulfilled on a technicality thus far.

Give it a new name and they don't have to call it another failure to anticipate that a political decision was a failure.

 

So now Lockdown is Tier 4 - well they cannot have a Tier 5 at least, there isn't anything else to shut in the South East.

 

I could see this coming, the messaging was all there they just needed to find the right moment and excuse to apply it. 

 

Doesn't change much really though, we knew we shouldn't be meeting up and all the non essential shops will be doing their sales via the internet which is no bad thing, there is no way such an event could be run successfully in a shop with the volumes of people you'd expect down Oxford Street.

[Nearholmer]

2 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

a political decision was a failure.

 All decisions made by politicians must, I guess, be 'political' be definition.

 

This time, I think they've genuinely been caught-out by changing circumstance, though. It was always a gamble to have a time-limited L2, but for about a week it did seem to be working almost everywhere in the SE+E. The rate continued to climb for just over a week on the back of pre-L2 contacts, then fell quite nicely, until it suddenly started going up again for no obvious reason in the third week of L2.

 

We now know what changed. And, I still think it changed first in Ramsgate.

[woodenhead]

Just now, Nearholmer said:

 All decisions made by politicians must, I guess, be 'political' be definition.

 

I was thinking more the Christmas bubbles - it was basically accepting the inevitable that people would meet up and they wanted to give us something nice - but since then with divergence by the other nations and messaging saying you can do it but we'd really wish you wouldn't, it was clear someone's 'good idea' had fallen flat and everyone was back peddling.

 

The lockdown in November was to stem rising cases, all I could see coming from the Christmas bubble was a new stringent lockdown starting just before New Year's Eve then the other nations began announcing them and here we are.

 

Everyone, I hope, expected this winter would be difficult, they've been talking about it since the first lockdown so as measures increase why on earth would you then go and abandon everything for 5 days unless there was a plan to doubledown the following week.  Furlough now covers till April, I don't think we will see the end of Tier 3/4 in the North, London and the South East before March at the earliest.

 

With those expectations I cannot be disappointed with what happens over the winter now, any easing for other than polictical stunts will be a bonus for me.

[Free At Last]

When Tier 6 comes you are not allowed to look out of the window.

[adb968008]

I’m sorry but this was an entirely predictable mess.

 

The lockdown in December was ended too early under pressure for businesses to earn money for Christmas. Then in an attempt to avoid unpopularity, the nations diverged on Christmas and now we've been forced into a last minute mess.

 

Reopening schools in January, if what we are being told today is not just cow waste, will be crass wreckless.

 

[Phil Parker]

It's really time to start seriously re-configuring society to meet the new world. The Lancet spelt it out in October:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

 

According to this, and since they are the experts I have to believe them, all these measures are here to stay forever. That means it's time to accept that all hospitality venues are shut and will never re-open. With them go all theatres, cinemas and other venues that rely on an audience. It's probably reasonable to suggest that non-essential shops will cease to exist over a relatively short period of time. Pretty much, if you enjoy it, it's gone.

 

Initially, this will mean massive unemployment. I've read predictions of over 8 million, and with no jobs, that's going to be around a long while. Government will have massively reduced income, almost certainly to the detriment of those relying on a state pension.

 

Long term, and I think we are talking decades, society will evolve. We'll stop having any contact with other people, existing entirely online. No-one will go shopping in person, and it's likely that all deliveries will be automated. How people are supposed to meet and procreate is a mystery, but a huge reduction in population isn't a bad thing for the planet.

 

Merry Christmas.

[Reorte]

Looks like the Matrix was the right idea?

 

[Dava]

12 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

It's really time to start seriously re-configuring society to meet the new world. The Lancet spelt it out in October:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

 

According to this, and since they are the experts I have to believe them, all these measures are here to stay forever. That means it's time to accept that all hospitality venues are shut and will never re-open. With them go all theatres, cinemas and other venues that rely on an audience. It's probably reasonable to suggest that non-essential shops will cease to exist over a relatively short period of time. Pretty much, if you enjoy it, it's gone.

 

Initially, this will mean massive unemployment. I've read predictions of over 8 million, and with no jobs, that's going to be around a long while. Government will have massively reduced income, almost certainly to the detriment of those relying on a state pension.

 

Long term, and I think we are talking decades, society will evolve. We'll stop having any contact with other people, existing entirely online. No-one will go shopping in person, and it's likely that all deliveries will be automated. How people are supposed to meet and procreate is a mystery, but a huge reduction in population isn't a bad thing for the planet.

 

Merry Christmas.

There are vaccines now. We have to see how effective they are in preventing transmission of the new strain.I agree there is no return to status quo Feb 2020, the question is how much resumption of socialisation is possible.

 

Dava

[Phil Parker]

1 minute ago, Dava said:

There are vaccines now. We have to see how effective they are in preventing transmission of the new strain.I agree there is no return to status quo Feb 2020, the question is how much resumption of socialisation is possible.

 

Dava

 

The Lancet piece assumes vaccines:

 

"It might be that the vaccines that ultimately become available are more like those described under scenario 2: slowing transmission in addition to limiting illness and death. This scenario will be more welcome than scenario 3 but will not change the need to maintain earlier interventions in place. It is time to forcefully impress on people that basic measures to limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 are here to stay. This is the new normal."

[Hal Nail]

Hmmm. I think it's time the moderators stepped in...

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Hal Nail

[APOLLO]

“There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Winston— always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever. ”

 

George Orwell's 1984

[woodenhead]

27 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

It's really time to start seriously re-configuring society to meet the new world. The Lancet spelt it out in October:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

 

According to this, and since they are the experts I have to believe them, all these measures are here to stay forever. That means it's time to accept that all hospitality venues are shut and will never re-open. With them go all theatres, cinemas and other venues that rely on an audience. It's probably reasonable to suggest that non-essential shops will cease to exist over a relatively short period of time. Pretty much, if you enjoy it, it's gone.

 

Initially, this will mean massive unemployment. I've read predictions of over 8 million, and with no jobs, that's going to be around a long while. Government will have massively reduced income, almost certainly to the detriment of those relying on a state pension.

 

Long term, and I think we are talking decades, society will evolve. We'll stop having any contact with other people, existing entirely online. No-one will go shopping in person, and it's likely that all deliveries will be automated. How people are supposed to meet and procreate is a mystery, but a huge reduction in population isn't a bad thing for the planet.

 

Merry Christmas.

Well you've put the cat among the pigeons now Phil.

 

If the answer to resolving our current crisis is this then actually it's time to give up trying to contain it and let it spread until it eventually stops spreading.   Like any penned animal humans react negatively to imprisonment, the outcome of what you are saying would be anarchy because it will lose the consensus of support from the majority that one thing that keeps society functioning.

[eastglosmog]

23 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

No need to worry. Have faith in our beloved leader. Around May the 8th to the 10th he said that although restrictions would be eased he would not do anything that might risk a second spike.

I sometimes wonder if this is actually happening or that I am just having a very bad dream.  

Bernard

Well, strictly speaking, they did avoid a second "spike".  The second wave was much flatter than the first and more of a cowpat profile!

[APOLLO]

36 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

It's really time to start seriously re-configuring society to meet the new world. The Lancet spelt it out in October:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

 

According to this, and since they are the experts I have to believe them, all these measures are here to stay forever. That means it's time to accept that all hospitality venues are shut and will never re-open. With them go all theatres, cinemas and other venues that rely on an audience. It's probably reasonable to suggest that non-essential shops will cease to exist over a relatively short period of time. Pretty much, if you enjoy it, it's gone.

 

Initially, this will mean massive unemployment. I've read predictions of over 8 million, and with no jobs, that's going to be around a long while. Government will have massively reduced income, almost certainly to the detriment of those relying on a state pension.

 

Long term, and I think we are talking decades, society will evolve. We'll stop having any contact with other people, existing entirely online. No-one will go shopping in person, and it's likely that all deliveries will be automated. How people are supposed to meet and procreate is a mystery, but a huge reduction in population isn't a bad thing for the planet.

 

Merry Christmas.

  

I think it's time society (you and me) start seriously re-configuring our leaders to meet the new world.

 

Or else -------------------------

 

Brit15

[caradoc]

41 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

According to this, and since they are the experts I have to believe them, all these measures are here to stay forever. That means it's time to accept that all hospitality venues are shut and will never re-open. With them go all theatres, cinemas and other venues that rely on an audience. It's probably reasonable to suggest that non-essential shops will cease to exist over a relatively short period of time. Pretty much, if you enjoy it, it's gone.

 

Rather a pessimistic viewpoint ! Horrid though it undoubtedly is, Covid causes death in a fraction of the population, and with effective vaccines its impact will reduce still further. IMHO human nature will not allow us to adapt, ever, to such an extreme change to our way of life, whatever Government, scientists and the medical profession might say. 

 

[adb968008]

 

 

My friends around me are becoming annoyed with my accurate predictions, and tonight was another of them.

Government keeps getting deluded into thinking they have control of the virus, we dont. The virus controls us. Everytime you put economy vs virus, the virus will win.
 

I suspect that if schools open in January, in some areas they wont be open very long, but there will be devastation caused by it. We are close to the worst, but the worst is still to come. Mass testing at secondary schools is way overdue, mass testing at any mass gathering, regardless of age, should have been implemented last september.

 

The best thing, is a lockdown until 35 mn have been exposed or vaccinated, 50% population, after which the R1 statistically can never be above 1, i suspect reality is it will start falling from 40%).. only then will the virus be in retreat...

if, 15mn have been infected already, then 1mn vaccinated a week, is c24 weeks* until you reach the “retreat” number, but even then your only half way through the population.

* 1mn vaccines a week x 20mn * 2 doses, 4 weeks apart.

 

However, if you read between all that lot, on the positive side, you can see when the end is in sight... From March, the most vulnerable should be protected, From May the virus threat & impact should be in decline, even if the virus remains in circulation.

Theres two big things though... the risk of virus spreading by the protected, and russian roulette for Long Covid or Death amongst the unprotected. Both risks will be lower, but still there.

 

Will life change forever.. if it does it will be the first time a virus has. Some small changes will persist, and not before time.. cleanliness, temperature checking and sympton checking will probably be on going.

 

I think a key mistake is thinking Covid as seasonal, it thrives in Brazil, the UAE just as well as it thrives in snowy mountains. The waves are merely reflections of patterns of human social behaviours.

Now lets be objective, this virus is rampant in the west. It is less so in central Africa and Asia. There has to be a reason, and ignoring conspiracy theories, the obvious one is prior exposure. Africans by culture are more exposed to a wider range of viruses as part of daily life. Asia, has had several viruses like this before. That suggests once our overly-protected western immune systems are more in-tune with Covid, we will overcome it.

I’m sure at some point science will investigate why some of average ages are disproportionately affected than others supposedly at random, and will establish why random isn't random. We may need vaccines for years, but next steps will be a 1 years, 5 year and some day an at birth for life jab.
 

But it will pass and am hopeful mid-summer may be closer to normal for 50% of the population...i dont think the government has a plan yet for the other 50%, but it would seem to be that 49% will be ok, Charles Darwin for the 1% of that 50% (350k), but its a number the NHS could manage over a time, and of that maybe 35k would pass, thats less than those who have already perished, but would be deemed an acceptable loss, unless your one of them.

 

make no mistake this government is about damage control, not protection. The New York Post summed up the government response back in March..”the UK Government moves to protect its economy but not its people”. Thats engrained in British DNA for 2000 years, covid demonstrated that it cannot change that...you can be sure for most of us under 50, you will see your tax bill before you see a vaccine, and when it is your turn, you will have probably have to pay for it, government generosity only goes to the minimum. Right now the minimum is what it takes to get you to spend, which is why lockdown ended Dec 2nd and restarted at 5pm and not 5am today. I predict lockdown will go through January, it is a financially dead month, the worst threat will pass by March, the most vulnerable by June after that it will be down to your personal risk.

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by adb968008

[Michael Hodgson]

Clear and decisive leadership from Boris' Government ...

Yesterday   Tier 2

Today          Tier 3

Tomorrow  Tier 4.

Xmas Day ..... 

 

[APOLLO]

Simple rules are what we need, clearly understood by all.

 

Tier one     Beer at the local pub

Tier two     Beer only with Chips at the local pub

Tier three  No Beer, Pub closed, Chips from the chippy

Tier four    No Beer, Pub gone bust, Chippy closed.

 

'appy xmas !!!!

 

Brit15