Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[3rd Rail Exile]

7 minutes ago, monkeysarefun said:

 unless your society and government is so disfunctional (sic) that even these basic steps were impossible to achieve.

Unfortunately, the so-called "basic steps" you refer to are indeed impossible to achieve with the extremely complex and interconnected culture and economy we have ended up at the centre of.  As @Nearholmer said earlier...

 

6 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

We've got a significant proportion of society who don't feel as if they are really a part of society at all, believe it does nothing for them, and that they owe no duty to do anything for it. There are multiple reasons/excuses for people being "societally disengaged", and oddly it applies to some degree to the very wealthy (above it all) as well as some (not all by any means all) of the poorest. We are no longer, if ever we were, "this happy breed".

We used to have places we could send recalcitrant individuals so that they could learn to toe the line, and perhaps breed it into their future generations.  Unfortunately this option is no longer open to us.  

 

On the other hand, it is reassuring to read in your your reports that said aforementioned places are dealing with the current situation much better than they think we are...

[monkeysarefun]

19 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Apologies, probably me being over-sensitive as a result of being surrounded by the gloomy news of what is happening here day-in-day out.

 

I honestly thought that some of your posts pointing out the difference between Aus success and UK failure had been intended in the spirit of faux-gloating gentle wind-ups, not actual gloats, but faux-gloats.

 

Once again: please accept my apologies.

 

No worries - Some of my posts I did tapping away on the stupid little keyboard  on my phone which is annoying to do so I tended to make them brief as possible , thus probably giving a different tone than I intended. 

 

 

We in Australia can gloat over our weather,  our dangerous wildlife , or  our 3-truck garbage service, but a pandemic thats caused so much death  and misery is not something that I'd consider boasting about.

 

I guess the Australian tone sometimes comes across as a bit big-noting at

times.

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[hayfield]

 

The government seem to be quite on edge over this South African new variant, great pity we were not in this position for the Kent variant and as the southeastern corner are making great strides in supressing the last spike and with the rollout of the vaccine progressing exceptionally well the last thing we need is a fourth spike

 

von der Layden has changed her tune defending the EU's lackluster start claiming its a marathon and they are going for safety rather than short cuts. Ms Merkal saying there were good reasons for being slower. Seems the heat over this matter is falling rapidly, no doubt a few back room deals have been agreed and sense prevailed. Sadly its started issues again in Northern Ireland over the boarder and presumably delays

[Pete the Elaner]

34 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

The government seem to be quite on edge over this South African new variant, great pity we were not in this position for the Kent variant and as the southeastern corner are making great strides in supressing the last spike and with the rollout of the vaccine progressing exceptionally well the last thing we need is a fourth spike

 

 

It could be argued that anything coming from South Africa has a smaller channel of entry than from France or something which actually mutated within the UK itself.

But trying to stop it now is not possible. It is out there & the best we can do is learn from it to deal with future mutations.

Regarding the SA variant; if it can be stopped then surely action taken now to (hopefully) prevent it spreading is a good thing?

[hayfield]

1 minute ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

It could be argued that anything coming from South Africa has a smaller channel of entry than from France or something which actually mutated within the UK itself.

But trying to stop it now is not possible. It is out there & the best we can do is learn from it to deal with future mutations.

Regarding the SA variant; if it can be stopped then surely action taken now to (hopefully) prevent it spreading is a good thing?

 

 

I guess in the end if we are successful stopping it coming from South Africa, if it gets a grip on the continent then it will eventually get here anyway. At the moment I guess we need another two months just to get the most vulnerable vaccinated. The thought being we will need covid to be part of the flu vaccine in future years

[Hobby]

I think it's worth pointing out that it's been changing itself ever since it started, this is not something new, according to this it changes slightly every time it infects someone. But scientists are also following the changes, so hopefully things will even themselves out.

 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210127-covid-19-variants-how-mutations-are-changing-the-pandemic

Edited February 2, 2021 by Hobby

[John M Upton]

Breaking news now:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-55881753

[Nearholmer]

Terribly sad.

[Nick C]

Sad news

[Ron Ron Ron]

9 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Breaking news now:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-55881753

A new thread started , to allow due respect in a dedicated place on the forum.

 

 

 

 

.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[Nearholmer]

Terrible day all round by the looks of it: not only the passing of such a notable individual, but if I've read it right the highest number of deaths reported in the UK on a single day since this thing started.

[lapford34102]

Lower no. of deaths than last Tuesday - BBC

Stu

 

 

[Reorte]

53 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Terrible day all round by the looks of it: not only the passing of such a notable individual, but if I've read it right the highest number of deaths reported in the UK on a single day since this thing started.

There's always a post-weekend spike by date reported, this one's lower than the last two post weekend spikes, and consistent with an overall falling pattern.

[Nearholmer]

Ah, yes, I see, I was reading the "daily reported" figure, while looking at the histogram on the dashboard, which is collated in terms of "daily occurrence" (the BBC histogram is "daily reported", so 'spikier').

 

Mind you, its better, but still not what anyone would call good.

 

More positively, this lockdown does seem to have worked, doesn't it? The descent is obviously at different rates in different places, but the fear that even more severe lock would be needed with the Kentish Strain in place doesn't seem to have come true. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Nearholmer

[John M Upton]

Unfortunately there is the South African strain now hovering into view which could stick a spanner in the works....

[Dagworth]

6 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Unfortunately there is the South African strain now hovering into view which could stick a spanner in the works....

As well as the same problematic mutation that is seen in that strain, E484K, having also arisen independently here in the Kent variant. 

 

Andi

[Hobby]

But on one of the news reports they said that the vaccine is still effective against it.

[Pete the Elaner]

13 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

More positively, this lockdown does seem to have worked, doesn't it? The descent is obviously at different rates in different places, but the fear that even more severe lock would be needed with the Kentish Strain in place doesn't seem to have come true. 

 

Yes it does.

A lockdown was never going to be an instant solution. The infection rate started to ease off about 3 weeks ago & now the death rate also looks like it is following. These display the expected lag so it is fair to assume the lockdown has had a huge effect.

 

These are definitely good signs.

I felt that lockdown 1 was eased too quickly due to complacency so we need to keep pressing on for a while this time around.

[boxbrownie]

At last sense prevails, that silly little Irish man who owns several planes has been banned from showing his “Jab and Go” advert........should have been fined as well.

[Reorte]

Now saying there's good evidence that the AZ vaccine reduces transmission too. That's got to be very good news.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Pete the Elaner said:

These are definitely good signs.

I felt that lockdown 1 was eased too quickly due to complacency so we need to keep pressing on for a while this time around.

 

Lockdown 1 was, IMO, definitely released prematurely in parts of the North of England. In the South, judging by the case rates that applied over the summer, the timing seems to have been OK ........ if the foreign holidays thing hadn't happened, and some internal travel restrictions had been in place, I reckon that T, T & I could have worked, and might have saved us from such a shocking winter.

 

More to the point: the current descent in case rates seems to have a "half life" of about three weeks, slightly less in some places, slightly more in others. If we all stick with it, we ought to be back where we were towards the end of Lockdown 2 in another fortnight, and somewhere around end-September 2020 figures by 8th March, so within the realms where T, T & I ought to be able to keep the lid on things.

 

I really do hope that HMG listens to the advice it seems to be getting about a very controlled release this time. Much as I'm an "education zealot", I do think it would be wiser to stage school re-openings, with primaries going first, followed by at least a fortnight to monitor outcomes, then secondaries, if all is going OK. Personally, I could wait until the cows come home for non-essential shops to reopen, provided that their staff are looked-after in the meantime.

 

And, foreign holidays? Nobody ever died for  thewant of one - the problem will be keeping the "considerably prosperous" penned-up, because they'll sneak-off to go skiing, or to their villa in Tuscany, at the drop of a hat, and we all know where that got us last spring!

Edited February 3, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Hobby]

14 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

And, foreign holidays? Nobody ever died for  the want of one - the problem will be keeping the "considerably prosperous" penned-up, because they'll sneak-off to go skiing, or to their villa in Tuscany, at the drop of a hat, and we all know where that got us last spring!

 

You wouldn't believe it talking to some people! As for the "considerably prosperous" I'd suggest that the majority of foreign holidays were taken by the less prosperous on package deals last summer (Spain and Turkey seeming to be the places of choice), just that we hear of the top end mob more.

[Nearholmer]

Its about how many foreign holidays that people take, and to some extent when, as well as the raw numbers of people going.

 

If you look at the demographic for holidays at/around February and October half-terms, and to some extent at Easter, it tips towards prosperity much more than the summer peak - people who can afford more than one holiday each year.

 

The first wave was driven to quite an extent by the late-winter/early-spring foreign holidays - most of the virus in the UK at that time was genetically traceable to France, Spain and Italy. It was that which I was thinking of when I said "last year", rather than the summer holidays.

 

We very definitely do not need more import over the next few weeks - and even though we are currently regarded as plague-bearers, there will always be a resort somewhere that is desperate/greedy enough to invite us over for a week or two!

 

[3rd Rail Exile]

12 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Its about how many foreign holidays that people take, and to some extent when, as well as the raw numbers of people going.

 

If you look at the demographic for holidays at/around February and October half-terms, and to some extent at Easter, it tips towards prosperity much more than the summer peak - people who can afford more than one holiday each year.

Problem is, the "villa in Tuscany" types don't view that as a holiday - it's just "living in their other home" for a bit!  The "holiday" is the trip to the US, Far East, Aus, NZ or wherever...

[rocor]

30 minutes ago, 3rd Rail Exile said:

Problem is, the "villa in Tuscany" types don't view that as a holiday - it's just "living in their other home" for a bit!  The "holiday" is the trip to the US, Far East, Aus, NZ or wherever...

Regrettably it is travel itself that is the major cause of diseases rapidly spreading across the world. Even allowing for the relative low level deadliness of the current virus, and predictions that future ones may not be so benign, the putting forward of policies for much restricted future international travel, are unlikely going to be vote winners.