Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[boxbrownie]

58 minutes ago, Torper said:

Up here in Scotland many of us are very concerned as to what is going to happen when 25000+ foreign visitors descend on Glasgow for the COP26 conference, due to start any day now and going on for the best part of a fortnight.  It is generally accepted that we're going to se a spike in cases, with scientific modelling suggesting that it could be fourfold or, in a worst case scenario, considerably more.  Just as well that I'm 90 miles away and have just had my booster.

 

DT

 

34 minutes ago, Ramblin Rich said:

Aye. The G7 conference in Cornwall resulted in a big spike afterwards - and that was when levels were considerably lower than they currently are, with some measures still in place. It will be interesting* to see what happens after COP26.**

 

* as per the curse "may you live in interesting times"

** I think we might COP it...

Exactly, including the 5000 police shipped in from around the County and billeted in a cruise ship in Falmouth, but they didn’t stop them off duty mixing it up in Falmouth (including a nasty fight in a pub by the Police!), them and the thousands of incomer protestors made a right mess of the figures.

[Colin_McLeod]

On 24/10/2021 at 15:50, Colin_McLeod said:

 

Maybe your bicycle rims needed attention.

 

On 24/10/2021 at 17:41, Nearholmer said:

Rough paths Colin. The glasses were fine on the very rare smooth bits.

 

[Nearholmer]

That would be perfect for riding round here, provided you were careful to keep in ante-phase with the tree roots, potholes etc.

[2750Papyrus]

12 hours ago, Colin_McLeod said:

 

 

Is that a bicycle designed by a committee?

[boxbrownie]

29 minutes ago, 2750Papyrus said:

Is that a bicycle designed by a committee?

No, just detailed and improved after a very long thread on RMWeb 

[Steamport Southport]

On 25/10/2021 at 20:20, Colin_McLeod said:

 

 

 

Doesn't roll backwards though....

 

 

 

[MarkC]

5 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Doesn't roll backwards though....

 

 

 

Or indeed forwards, I would suggest... 

[Nearholmer]

Get a grip, chaps! 

Don’t you know this is a railway forum?

 

 

[EddieB]

I find this interesting - an international and cross-party group of MEPs calling a press conference to give their reasons for opposing “vaccine passports”.

 

 

Their spokesman is a Romanian representative, the panel includes Italian, French, German and Croatian members.

 

Many of the EU member states now require proof of vaccination to enter public buildings and places of work.  As we know, vaccination does not confer immunity from contracting or spreading the virus - but does markedly reduce the effects in vulnerable groups.  However, as there appear to be moves towards similar certification across the whole of the UK, what will be the outcome in Europe?

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by EddieB
.

[Andy Hayter]

Don't be fooled by the rhetoric of we come from all sides across Europe.

 

C Anderson - German MEP for Alternativ fuer Deutschland - Far right party [Quote: I am not afraid of Covid]

F Donata - Italian MEP - resigned from the far right Lega Party over Covid policies

C Terhes - Romanian MEP - representing a nationalist peasants party.

I V Sincic - Croatian MEP - representing Zivi Zid - Human Shield - supposed an activist non aligned party but have joined forces with the right wing Italian five star party.

 

Not able to follow up on the last due to very flakey internet connections tonight.  But I would hazard a guess they are a not mainstream representative.  

 

[Nearholmer]

6 hours ago, EddieB said:

However, as there appear to be moves towards similar certification across the whole of the UK

 

Are you detecting a drift in that direction in England then? Because, I can't say that I am.

 

Mind you, it does appear that something might have to be done to persuade or coerce younger age groups to get fully vaccinated in England, if we aren't to have a slow-motion cull of the over 70s. Our vaccination rates are actually pretty low one you look below about 45yo. I can't find national (as in the individual nations on the UK) vaccination rates by age, but as an instance, looking locally <60% 25-29yo double jabbed, and the rate has been virtually flat-lining for ages now, suggesting strongly that those who are going to get jabbed have got jabbed.

 

Allowing everyone to get "vaccinated by catching it" probably won't work, because (a) it will take too long, and (b) there seem to be strong pointers that immunity acquired that way fades even faster than that acquired at the point of a needle.

[EddieB]

21 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Are you detecting a drift in that direction in England then? Because, I can't say that I am.

...

Allowing everyone to get "vaccinated by catching it" probably won't work, because ... there seem to be strong pointers that immunity acquired that way fades even faster than that acquired at the point of a needle.

 

Rightly or wrongly, that has been my perception.  Are what we consider coercive policies towards the younger age groups being driven by external pressure when the independent scientific opinion seems to tilt towards the opposite advice?

 

On that second point, I thought it was the opposite - i.e. naturally acquired immunity lasts longer and protects against more variants than that from vaccine.  Are there any studies that support either position?  (At times I despair at the level of conjecture when there are data that could be collected from studying persistence of antibodies).

 

(Apologies for snipping bits from your response).

[EddieB]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

Don't be fooled by the rhetoric of we come from all sides across Europe.

 

C Anderson - German MEP for Alternativ fuer Deutschland - Far right party [Quote: I am not afraid of Covid]

F Donata - Italian MEP - resigned from the far right Lega Party over Covid policies

C Terhes - Romanian MEP - representing a nationalist peasants party.

I V Sincic - Croatian MEP - representing Zivi Zid - Human Shield - supposed an activist non aligned party but have joined forces with the right wing Italian five star party.

 

Not able to follow up on the last due to very flakey internet connections tonight.  But I would hazard a guess they are a not mainstream representative.  

 

I brought this up because I find it healthy that there is debate within what I see as a fairly monolithic organisation.   Whatever their politics, there are valid points being raised.

[Andy Hayter]

The politics are incidental, I was trying to point out that they are not mainstream.  They might equally be very left wing and for all I know the Romanian Peasants party may be.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, EddieB said:

Are what we consider coercive policies towards the younger age groups being driven by external pressure when the independent scientific opinion seems to tilt towards the opposite advice?

 

My understanding, having read the relevant reports, is that the younger the person, the less benefit to them as an individual comes from vaccination, until at somewhere around 16yo (for an otherwise healthy individual), the benefits and risks to them become sensibly equal (accepting that neither side of the equation is perfectly understood).

 

So, on that understanding, IMO anyone above about 20yo (allowing a margin) should definitely be accepting vaccination, because it will definitely do them some good, and the likelihood of harm is very tiny, and because it will sure as heck do other people a lot of good by reducing prevalence of the disease.

 

Now, I understand that some people in their 20s and 30s dont quite see it like that. Their take is that it will do them barely any good (which is another way of saying "some good"), and that the whole thing is too new to allow proper understanding of long-term outcomes, so it might do them serious harm.

 

There it hangs: should those cautious individuals in their 20s and 30s make, what for them, is a leap of faith, that it will do them no or vanishingly small harm, to protect others; or, should they wait however long to see what the long-term outcomes are? 

 

My view is that if they want to wait and see, fine. But, while waiting, and remaining a potential health risk to the elderly, have the courtesy not to go attending crowded places and maximising that risk by unwittingly spreading the bug. That sounds like "Covid Passports".

 

Below about 20yo, and certainly below about 16yo, I get progressively less categorical in my views. Outside of school, most <18yo don't generally go to very crowded venues anyway, they aren't the pub and nightclub goers; they are more likely to go to cinemas and places like bowling alleys and burger bars, which actually involve less close proximity with large numbers than does school. So, I wouldn't seek to coerce them, but I would test twice, two days apart, with LFD, before putting a teenager in close proximity with an elderly person ...... my son and my mother for instance (who actually haven't been together since the summer, and even then mostly outdoors).

 

Something else at the back of my mind is that children and teenagers have already taken a huge hit to their development and mental health to protect the elderly since March 2020, and I don't think its fair or reasonable to demand of them that they take even tiny risks to provide further protection - give them the full picture, unbiased, and let them make their own minds up with no coercion.

 

1 hour ago, EddieB said:

On that second point, I thought it was the opposite

 

If you haven't already, have a look at Prof Spector's video from last week, within which he shows a graphic that attempts to explain it. Now, I came away from watching it with a feeling that he wasn't presenting it very clearly, and was possibly comparing apples with wildebeeste. But, I think he was saying that, taken on a population-wide basis, being double-jabbed provides longer lasting protection than naturally acquired immunity, partly because a proportion of people don't acquire antibodies by catching it - for some reason they simply dont create any.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Nearholmer

[monkeysarefun]

The government has today released travel details and danger levels for overseas destinations in readiness for next week on November 1 when the  fully vaccinated among us can finally  leave the island without asking the governments permission. 

 

On the 4 tier system where 1 is "the  risk of danger and COVID is the same as faced here in Australia" and level 4  is "Just don't go there!" the UK is at level 2  -  "Exercise a high degree of caution due to the risk of COVID and warm beer with bits in it".

Edited October 27, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[Dunsignalling]

8 hours ago, EddieB said:

Rightly or wrongly, that has been my perception.  Are what we consider coercive policies towards the younger age groups being driven by external pressure when the independent scientific opinion seems to tilt towards the opposite advice?

 

On that second point, I thought it was the opposite - i.e. naturally acquired immunity lasts longer and protects against more variants than that from vaccine.  Are there any studies that support either position?  (At times I despair at the level of conjecture when there are data that could be collected from studying persistence of antibodies).

 

(Apologies for snipping bits from your response).

I know of at least two people locally who were "revisited" by Covid within three/four months of a previous infection.

 

John

[EddieB]

46 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

I know of at least two people locally who were "revisited" by Covid within three/four months of a previous infection.

 

John

Meaning what?  

 

All data can be useful, but we need to understand what was going on, otherwise it’s just hearsay.  How strong were their symptoms, first and second-time around?  Were they reinfected, or was it a recurrence of effects (e.g. “long Covid” behaving like malaria)?  Were they vaccinated and when, in relation to their symptoms?

[Hobby]

9 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

The politics are incidental, I was trying to point out that they are not mainstream.  They might equally be very left wing and for all I know the Romanian Peasants party may be.

 

Just for the record it's called the Christian Democratic National Peasants Party and is centre-right... And has one MEP but no representatives in their own parliament!!

 

10 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Are you detecting a drift in that direction in England then? Because, I can't say that I am.

 

I must admit that is what I see as well and was therefore surprised at Eddie's comment. However I also find that it very much depends on the location, my experience of city centres such as Birmingham, Leeds and Newcastle is very different compared with small towns such as where I live where mask wearing, for instance, is still very much in evidence. Seems people living in the big urban conurbations don't care as much?

 

8 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

On the 4 tier system where 1 is "the  risk of danger and COVID is the same as faced here in Australia" and level 4  is "Just don't go there!" the UK is at level 2  -  "Exercise a high degree of caution due to the risk of COVID and warm beer with bits in it".

 

Only level 2? I feel very let down, we should be at least level 3!!

 

(At least you can taste our "warm" beer!  )

[Dunsignalling]

25 minutes ago, EddieB said:

Meaning what?  

 

All data can be useful, but we need to understand what was going on, otherwise it’s just hearsay.  How strong were their symptoms, first and second-time around?  Were they reinfected, or was it a recurrence of effects (e.g. “long Covid” behaving like malaria)?  Were they vaccinated and when, in relation to their symptoms?

Well, meaning that, at least for some, residual immunity from being infected can be limited. That shouldn't be a surprise; not everybody gets equal protection from being vaccinated, either. It all seems to depend on how strongly the body is stimulated to produce antibodies.

 

In these instances, I know one of them casually, enough to know his first name but not reliably remember his surname! The other is a friend of a friend. 

 

Their infections were definitely separate; neither has had ongoing issues, either in between or since.

 

Both have now been vaccinated with one (AIUI) having received the first jab shortly before the second infection.

 

John   

 

 

[alastairq]

10 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

) there seem to be strong pointers that immunity acquired that way fades even faster than that acquired at the point of a needle.

 That's not as I understand it from Zoe's evidence.

[hayfield]

9 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Well, meaning that, at least for some, residual immunity from being infected can be limited. That shouldn't be a surprise; not everybody gets equal protection from being vaccinated, either. It all seems to depend on how strongly the body is stimulated to produce antibodies.

 

In these instances, I know one of them casually, enough to know his first name but not reliably remember his surname! The other is a friend of a friend. 

 

Their infections were definitely separate; neither has had ongoing issues, either in between or since.

 

Both have now been vaccinated with one (AIUI) having received the first jab shortly before the second infection.

 

John   

 

 

 

John

 

The government seems quite relaxed about the numbers (though that may not be very reassuring) but it seems more scientists are seeing signs that infections will continue to fall. But if we actually look at the figures the 7 day average is still only just into triple figures. Is this a sign that covid has lost its main killing strength due to vaccines and modern medicines, and hopefully will be just one of the respiratory diseases that unfortunately kill people.

 

The high infection rates seem mainly in the unvaccinated groups, seemingly the only option of escaping the worst of this disease other than going on to a deserted island is to get vaccinated. Which in itself is no guaranteed of catching it but a defence from its worst effects. Can people escape from catching either the common cold or influenza ? The main cause for concern is the hospitalization's and higher than necessary premature deaths of seemingly healthy but unvaccinated people. Is the hope that the younger part of this group obtains immunity the natural way ?

 

 

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, EddieB said:

Meaning what?  

 

All data can be useful, but we need to understand what was going on, otherwise it’s just hearsay.  How strong were their symptoms, first and second-time around?  Were they reinfected, or was it a recurrence of effects (e.g. “long Covid” behaving like malaria)?  Were they vaccinated and when, in relation to their symptoms?

On a sample of one (so hardly great evidence) the one person I know of (but not even personally, wife of someone I work with) got Covid a second time, despite being vaccinated too. But it was much milder the second time around.

[Nearholmer]

42 minutes ago, alastairq said:

That's not as I understand it from Zoe's evidence.

As noted above, I thought the way Prof Spector presented it to be at least mildly confusing, so the fact that we came away with different understandings doesn’t much surprise me.

 

I for one could do with a really clear explanation, covering what % of people do and don’t acquire immunity from infection, and how long it lasts for different aged people. Also, how things differ between variants, because he seemed to say that the evidence showing good natural

immunity was ‘old news’, relating to pre-Delta.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Dunsignalling]

6 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

John

 

The government seems quite relaxed about the numbers (though that may not be very reassuring) but it seems more scientists are seeing signs that infections will continue to fall. But if we actually look at the figures the 7 day average is still only just into triple figures. Is this a sign that covid has lost its main killing strength due to vaccines and modern medicines, and hopefully will be just one of the respiratory diseases that unfortunately kill people.

 

The high infection rates seem mainly in the unvaccinated groups, seemingly the only option of escaping the worst of this disease other than going on to a deserted island is to get vaccinated. Which in itself is no guaranteed of catching it but a defence from its worst effects. Can people escape from catching either the common cold or influenza ? The main cause for concern is the hospitalization's and higher than necessary premature deaths of seemingly healthy but unvaccinated people. Is the hope that the younger part of this group obtains immunity the natural way ?

 

 

Though, in order to maintain that immunity, they will need to be exposed to the virus regularly in order to re-stimulate their production of antibodies. The unknown is how often that will be necessary.

 

Of course, if true herd immunity were achieved, the virus would largely disappear, but, given the "spreadabilty" of this particular virus, that seems unlikely to happen without a substantial increase in the relatively modest (overall) combined levels of vaccination and infection that currently pertain.     

 

John