Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Nearholmer]

2 hours ago, hayfield said:

I think it was you who stated many weeks back that when (for arguments sake) 30 % of patients come from 95% of the  of the (vaccinated) population and 70% come from the minority 5%, who are not vaccinated the numbers speak for themselves

I wish I could remember exactly what I did say, because it would save me trying to find it! 
 

But, time and again in this thread people are mixing-up absolute numbers with rates per 100k.

 

The rate of death per 100k is far larger among the unvaccinated than among the vaccinated (a factor of four IIRC), but people keep saying that the absolute number of people dying without vaccination is greater, and it’s that which I query every time.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Nearholmer]

On 19/10/2021 at 10:54, Nearholmer said:

Some Actual Figures: OK, having temporarily immersed myself in the ONS database, the number of deaths of people aged 75 or greater recorded as involving Covid-19 for Week 37 (about three weeks ago now) was 511. For Week 36, it was 545. The subsequent weeks' figures are lower, but probably aren't complete because of how long registration can take.

 

Now, these numbers don't differentiate between vaccinated and unvaccinated; I'm still hunting for figures that do, and they sure as heck are not easy to find!

 

OK, I've given up, having scoured ONS and HSA statistical databases. It must be there somewhere, but even my appetite for amatuer actuaryism is limited.

 

What probably can fairly be concluded is that a high proportion of those deaths will have been among fully vaccinated people, simply because only c6% of people in that age group are not fully vaccinated, many for medical reasons. Again one has to be careful comparing figures given as rates per 100 000 against absolute figures, because with so few unvaccinated people in that age bracket, a small number of deaths of unvaccinated people will give very high rates.

 

My conclusion: Mr Roberts confusing quotation probably does mean what it appears to say: In a week of 900+ deaths overall, 545 of those being people over 75, it does seem very likely that c500 of those could have been from the fully vaccinated c94% of that population, leaving c45 people drawn from the c6% of that population who are not fully vaccinated.

Found it, while waiting in the car park to give my son a lift home from football practice.

 

This, of course, is about the sad subject of deaths. Hospitalisation proportions will be different, and it does seem probable the a high % of those going to hospital with it are (a) not-vaccinated, and (b) fairly young.

 

Why?
 

Because:

 

- the bug is circulating most widely among the young;

 

- among the young, vaccination rates are much lower than among the elderly and, irrespective of age, severe illness is more likely to hit the not-vaccinated;

 

- there are a lot more people who are ‘young’ (say <40yo) than elderly (say >75yo (see population pyramid below);

 

- hence, even low rates of severe infection among the young will yield fairly large absolute numbers in hospital.

 

The big difference between the young going to hospital with it, and the elderly in the same position, is that the vast majority of the young come out of hospital (in about a week it would appear), probably feeling pretty rough, but alive, whereas a shockingly high proportion of the elderly who go into hospital with it come out in a shroud.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Andy Hayter]

4 hours ago, Reorte said:

 Found this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021

 

I've not looked through it but it might answer the question (for up to 24th September).

 

 

The link within the link does indeed give the numbers by vaccination status.  The numbers have been adjusted to normalise the age impacts - so trying to take out the fact that more old people are double vaccinated but also more prone to severe symptoms including deaths.

 

These normalised numbers do indeed show many more double vaccinated people die within 28 days of being diagnosed with Covid in the later weeks of the study period.

 

So for w/e 24/9/21 (week 38)

95 unvaccinated people died

1 person died having received the first shot within 21 days

25 people died having received one shot but more than 21 days  before

and

444 double vaccinated people died.

 

AS Nearholmer hypothesised this is simply because there are so many double vaccinated people compared with the other groups.  It does not indicate that you are more likely to die if vaccinated.*

Deaths per 100,000 of each group demonstrate that being vaccinated is  still a good option.

 

so unvaccinated deaths = 5.4 deaths per 100,000 [confidence levels are given]

double vaccinated deaths = 1.1 deaths per 100,000 [ with much narrower confidence limits due to the large sample size].

 

 

*  and the problem with discussing these numbers is that many will read that you are more likely to die if double vaccinated.  The paradox is that although more double vaccinated people will die you remain significantly less likely to die.

[Nearholmer]

47 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

and the problem with discussing these numbers is that many will read that you are more likely to die if double vaccinated.  The paradox is that although more double vaccinated people will die you remain significantly less likely to die.

Which is exactly why I think that the figures are being kept discretely in the shadows, and language being used that implies that a greater proportion of those dying are unvaccinated - the facts and their import are really difficult things to get across on sound bites, and could do easily be spun/misinterpreted.

[monkeysarefun]

7 hours ago, Reorte said:

OK if you're talking about specific people with specific attitudes rather than calling libertarian values in general nonsense that can be thrown away without any thought or concern or discussion when things start looking bad then there's no need for us to argue.

 

I didnt even mean to bring libertarians into it its just that it was after midnight and  I was using my phone and every time I typed in "antivaxxer" it changed it for me to "antidote" or something equally irrelevant and at the time "libertarian" worked fist time and was the only alternative I could think of at that time of night! 

I dont think many antivaxxers are actually libertarians par se or know what one is  and  if they have even heard of them  they would probably  just assume that they are communists or that its a starsign. 

Edited November 3, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[Neil]

Libertarianism always fascinates. Governmental decisions can be placed on a scale from libertarian to collectivist. Here in the UK this results in a collectivist approach to healthcare with the NHS and our horror at the lack of gun control exhibited by a more libertarian United States. But it's not just the big institutional stuff, we can place our own choices and preferences on a similar scale which can throw up huge inconsistencies of approach. For example I would consider myself to have strong collectivist leanings being in favour of public libraries, art galleries and parks. I like orderly queueing, fair shares and taking ones turn however I would (metaphorically) die in a ditch over the right to wear a rucksack at exhibitions, I think school uniforms are the invention of Satan and I would hate to live under the planning restrictions which would restrict the colour you could paint your house. 

[Nearholmer]

6 minutes ago, Neil said:

I would hate to live under the planning restrictions which would restrict the colour you could paint your house. 

It really doesn’t hurt, honestly.

 

Ours was under such a restriction for ten years from construction, and a pretty significant restriction it was really, given that most of the exterior is timber-clad, so paint is vital to looking after it.

 

Since the expiry of the ten years, guess what people locally have done to their houses? 
 

Carried on painting them exactly the same colour as before. Conformists, or what?

 

One day a true radical will move to the street, and paint their house bubblegum pink all over. Maybe.

 

 

[Oldddudders]

Here in Sarthe, most houses, new and old, are rendered. The vast majority are painted some shade of yellow, although it varies between the orange and pale-primrose ends of that hue. 

 

French windows open inwards, and everyone has shutters, although electric roller shutters are making inroads. Wooden shutters are the owner's chance for self-expression, and pinks and purples abound on newer properties. Mine, on my tumbledown 1850 cottage are stained wood. 

 

School uniforms hardly exist here. Pity.

[hayfield]

12 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Found it, while waiting in the car park to give my son a lift home from football practice.

 

This, of course, is about the sad subject of deaths. Hospitalisation proportions will be different, and it does seem probable the a high % of those going to hospital with it are (a) not-vaccinated, and (b) fairly young.

 

Why?
 

Because:

 

- the bug is circulating most widely among the young;

 

- among the young, vaccination rates are much lower than among the elderly and, irrespective of age, severe illness is more likely to hit the not-vaccinated;

 

- there are a lot more people who are ‘young’ (say <40yo) than elderly (say >75yo (see population pyramid below);

 

- hence, even low rates of severe infection among the young will yield fairly large absolute numbers in hospital.

 

The big difference between the young going to hospital with it, and the elderly in the same position, is that the vast majority of the young come out of hospital (in about a week it would appear), probably feeling pretty rough, but alive, whereas a shockingly high proportion of the elderly who go into hospital with it come out in a shroud.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You have selected the over 70's only, but the issue which was being reported was of all older age groups !!! plus the rise in numbers of younger age patients being admitted to hospital with covid in the unvaccinated group

 

There is nothing new about the mortality of older people, the plain facts are you are far more likely to suffer serious complications if you are not fully vaccinated. According to the clinicians in areas of low vaccination take up they were seeing the vast majority of patients being admitted with covid had not been vaccinated. Now you can either take this as fact from front line workers, or say its a conspiracy

 

In areas where the vaccine uptake is high the situation may well be different

 

The message which is consistent this year is to ensure you are fully vaccinated for covid and in the older generation for influenza

 

Across the world it is becoming more mainstream in protecting children from covid with tests for young children ongoing. Whether its to protect the children or the wider society I have no idea

 

Seemingly its not if but when we all catch covid, hopefully like influenza and the common cold, its affects on us individually will be manageable in all but the most frail ,

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

 I think school uniforms are the invention of Satan and I would hate to live under the planning restrictions which would restrict the colour you could paint your house. 

 

The small village I was brought up in and lived in for over 30 years, in the main was rented terraced houses. I actually wet myself when I read one householder was in breach of local conservation rules by painting their house a colour outside a chosen list.

 

Its not a radical colour, infact in my opinion it looks better than the previous shade and within that area there are few properties in my view which require conserving. In my opinion its local activists (possibly incomers) overstepping the mark. The planners allowed 2 Victorian shops to be destroyed to allow a small modern development, this changed the area far more that a can of paint. and 3 properties away from the property. So much for conservation !! 

[Nearholmer]

45 minutes ago, hayfield said:

You have selected the over 70's only, but the issue which was being reported was of all older age groups !!!

If you recall the earlier discussion, it arose because a statistician made a public statement about deaths among >75yo vaccinated people. That’s why we were discussing >75yo, and I simply took-up where we’d left off. I’d be happy to discuss any age group you like.

 

Here are the hospital admission rates by age, for w/e 24th October, from the ONS.

 

 

Because because of the shape of the population pyramid, the distribution of absolute numbers by age won’t be the same. As I said in my post yesterday, I can conceive that that would lead to a preponderance of hospital admissions being young-ish, unvaccinated people, but in fact:

 

SAGE noted that most patients admitted to hospital with covid after 16 June 2021 were fully vaccinated. Public Health England said that even with a “highly effective vaccine” this was expected, given the high rate of vaccine uptake and a policy of vaccinating higher risk people first. (BMJ 2021;374:n2306)

 

You seem to think that I’m attempting to decry vaccination, and deny the experience of health workers. Quite how you get that impression, I cannot fathom, because I’m not.

 

All I’m doing is looking at properly gathered and recorded statistics, and seeing what they can tell us, rather than relying entirely on anecdotes that must, by their nature, reflect very localised circumstance, which may or may not be representative of the whole. One might call it “learning at the feet of Florence Nightingale”, given that she was the one who really cracked using statistics as a tool in managing healthcare.

 

The thing about looking carefully at the numbers is that it can sometimes yield counterintuitive insights, challenge preconceptions.

 

To reassure you: I bang on at anybody within earshot about the virtues of getting vaccinated, and getting boosted, and am keen as mustard to get boosted myself as soon as six-months is up (next week).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Bernard Lamb]

3 hours ago, Neil said:

Libertarianism always fascinates. Governmental decisions can be placed on a scale from libertarian to collectivist. Here in the UK this results in a collectivist approach to healthcare with the NHS and our horror at the lack of gun control exhibited by a more libertarian United States. But it's not just the big institutional stuff, we can place our own choices and preferences on a similar scale which can throw up huge inconsistencies of approach. For example I would consider myself to have strong collectivist leanings being in favour of public libraries, art galleries and parks. I like orderly queueing, fair shares and taking ones turn however I would (metaphorically) die in a ditch over the right to wear a rucksack at exhibitions, I think school uniforms are the invention of Satan and I would hate to live under the planning restrictions which would restrict the colour you could paint your house. 

I rather like both. Wearing a straw boater and a blazer in summer and using a suitable colour paint on your house.

Nout I can see wrong with that.

Bernard

Very smart for a housing association IMHO.

  

 

 

[john new]

4 hours ago, Neil said:

.. snipped ....  I would hate to live under the planning restrictions which would restrict the colour you could paint your house. 

 

At the risk of an off-topic thread drift I live in a conservation area and have done for 35 years, a balance between living in a nice area (why it needs conservation) versus some restrictions on what you can do. A lot though depends with Planning on individual officer whims. One annoyance for me is that the utilities have been allowed to get away with not matching the road surface when doing their reinstatements - a reinstatement when I worked for the Highways section in the past had to be like for like even if matching it properly was more expensive for the contractor, all gone in the privatised cost cutting modern world!

[woodenhead]

17 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at this chart am I seeing that more males are born than female, but females live longer than males and it starts when males enter their mid thirties.

 

At the very top end of age I can understand - males were once more likely to be employed in very much more manually intensive industries which came with health penalties in later life and war will still account for some of the variance.  However, given the wholesale change in types of jobs available, lack of large scale war and a focus on fitness, it would be interesting to know if the surplus of males is now heading upwards or if the surplus wasn't always there and it is a recent trait.

[Reorte]

7 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Looking at this chart am I seeing that more males are born than female, but females live longer than males and it starts when males enter their mid thirties.

 

At the very top end of age I can understand - males were once more likely to be employed in very much more manually intensive industries which came with health penalties in later life and war will still account for some of the variance.  However, given the wholesale change in types of jobs available, lack of large scale war and a focus on fitness, it would be interesting to know if the surplus of males is now heading upwards or if the surplus wasn't always there and it is a recent trait.

I think there's reason to believe that women live longer on average anyway, although it's pretty hard or impossible to separate out all the social factors. The oldest person alive in the world is always a woman, as are the top ten of all time (when it comes to reasonably well verified claims).

[woodenhead]

2 minutes ago, Reorte said:

The oldest person alive in the world is always a woman, as are the top ten of all time (when it comes to reasonably well verified claims).

Apart from Keith Richards, but that is another thread entirely.

[Reorte]

1 minute ago, woodenhead said:

Apart from Keith Richards, but that is another thread entirely.

Sure he's alive and not a zombie?

[Nearholmer]

Surplus of males at birth is biologically/evolutionarily determined, SFAIU, and not confined to human, I think it is present in all “fighting mammals”., to make-up for losses at fighting age.

 

Males tend to indulge in crazily dangerous pursuits in their late-teens and early twenties, even in circumstances where they aren’t sent to war to get slaughtered, and men takes their own lives at three or four times the rate that women do.

[alastairq]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

and men takes their own lives at three or four times the rate that women do

 I wonder whether more wives murder their husbands, than vice versa?

[AY Mod]

1 hour ago, Bernard Lamb said:

I rather like both. Wearing a straw boater and a blazer in summer and using a suitable colour paint on your house.

Nout I can see wrong with that.

Bernard

Very smart for a housing association IMHO.

  

 

 

 

Do they have to keep their wheelie bins inside? That's what normally spoils a nice row of character terraced cottages.

 

Love the internal downpipes and outlets.

 

Toddled off to find the road and they're a bit more liberal a few doors along.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5304161,-0.0494565,3a,75y,155.04h,96.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sasv-a7lbmPldlRVBIC7ekQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

[woodenhead]

7 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Do they have to keep their wheelie bins inside? That's what normally spoils a nice row of character terraced cottages.

 

Love the internal downpipes and outlets.

 

Toddled off to find the road and they're a bit more liberal a few doors along.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5304161,-0.0494565,3a,75y,155.04h,96.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sasv-a7lbmPldlRVBIC7ekQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

Also the more liberal houses lack the boot scrapers - the liberal houses may be a later addition to the terrace perhaps and being not so old are not subject to the same restrictions??

[woodenhead]

In fact, they are different, you can see the join and the difference at roof level

[Nearholmer]

14 minutes ago, alastairq said:

I wonder whether more wives murder their husbands, than vice versa?

93% of convicted murderers in the U.K. 2018-20 were men, and 61% of female murder victims were killed by their present or former partner, while about 5% of male murder victims were, so I think you can be pretty sure of the answer.

 

 

[alastairq]

4 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

1% of female murder victims were killed by their present or former partner, while about 5% of male murder victims were,

 Or....that might mean, that women are better at getting away with it than men???? 

[woodenhead]

2 minutes ago, alastairq said:

 Or....that might mean, that women are better at getting away with it than men???? 

Lets not make light of abuse please, it's not a funny subject nor one to be light hearted about.