Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[andyman7]

Just now, Nearholmer said:

 

........ of the possibility that there might have to be more lockdowns.

 

 

I really hate the use of the term 'Lockdown'. We had a virtually complete lockdown from March - June 2020 when even things like dentists and opticians were not working. From Ja to March we had another serious lockdown but it was no way as bad as that first one. I accept that this time round there may need to be 'measures' but we need to think of them as just that and not 'Lockdowns'. And things such as closing schools are really untenable now - the fallout from the previous occasions has already wreaked terrible damage (my wife is a teacher dealing with primary age children who are very behind on the basics of reading and maths having lost 50% of their schooling in-classroom since they started).

The knowledge of the virus is so much better than it was 18 months ago that the sledgehammer approach of just making everyone stay indoors is not tenable.

[Reorte]

7 hours ago, Neil said:

 

Or maybe it says something about the intellect of those who support national populist movements? There's a strong overlap in the Venn diagram of 'average Trump voter' and 'slack jawed imbecile who possesses a greater number of guns than his IQ'.

The more someone takes the "agree with me or you're idiots" line the more marginals respond with Foxtrot Oscar.

[Andy Kirkham]

Perhaps this is straying into the realm of speculation, but is there a perverse crumb of comfort here?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/nov/27/covid-news-live-omicron-variant-spreads-to-europe-countries-rush-to-impose-travel-bans-on-southern-africa?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-61a1e2d18f084e4dfa569e89#block-61a1e2d18f084e4dfa569e89

 

The number of confirmed Omicron Covid cases in South Africa is still relatively low, with 2,828 new confirmed cases recorded on Friday, but its speed in infecting young people in the country has alarmed health professionals, the Associated Press reports.

“We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with Covid-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath hospital, told an online press briefing.

“Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated,” said Mathivha.

 

Might that mean that vaccines are still effective against Omicron?

[boxbrownie]

10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

I am sure they don't but preventing residents from returning home would be considered as inhumane.  

 

The Uk is doing the same btw.  Only those with UK residency can come to the UK from the Southern African states - and then they have to quarantine - to become shortly enforced hotel quarantine.

Australia did the same, their own residents were not allowed back into the country until this year.

 

UK announced anyone who came back from the new “red” countries in the last ten days must self isolate and take the two spaced tests, and the test and trace will be following their progress as apparently “they know who they are”.

 

So at least we are taking this outbreak seriously and acting fast.

[beast66606]

15 hours ago, Neil said:

 

Or maybe it says something about the intellect of those who support national populist movements? There's a strong overlap in the Venn diagram of 'average Trump voter' and 'slack jawed imbecile who possesses a greater number of guns than his IQ'.

 

I reported this post as it's low on fact < 1 fact found and high on opinion and very political, but it's been allowed to stand so I'll reply to correct the deliberately misleading rantnarrative.

 

Google the below info for verification, I've carefully used lefty sites so confirmation bias should be on your side.

 

(Figures are rounded and ball parked  to keep it simple)

 

In the US the New York Times (so a lefty publication) reckons around 95million people could have the vaccine but haven't.

 

Trump polled around 75 million votes, assuming every single Trump voter is anti vax that still leaves 20 million non Trump voters, I suspect the number who are both anti vax and pro Trump will be a lot lower, but let's assume a high number of say 60 million Trump voters are anti vax - that means around 35 million Biden voters are also into national populist movements (or are they just plain stupid  ?) which begs the question why they didn't vote for Trump for POTUS (<conspiracy theory> or maybe they did ... </conspiracy theory>)

 

35% of the US is armed, if guns were banned overnight, do you think that all the bad guys would hand in their guns and gun deaths would instantly drop to 0, in the UK it was 30 in 2020 ? (and therefore do you think all the good guys will hand in theirs knowing all the bad guys are still armed ? )

 

According to https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/   (which is also left leaning ) there have been some 41k deaths due to guns so far this year, of which over half were suicides, 19k deaths were due to homicides and accidental death - twice as many people died in RTAs in 2019, the figure is reasonably stable so will probably be around the same this year) , so banning cars would save more lives and would also mean Greta would give you a gold star - win, win for you.

 

Interested to see the sources for your claims - but I guess there aren't any, it's just a "tolerant left" view of others.

 

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

36 minutes ago, beast66606 said:

 

I reported this post as it's low on fact < 1 fact found and high on opinion and very political, but it's been allowed to stand so I'll reply to correct the deliberately misleading rantnarrative.

 

Google the below info for verification, I've carefully used lefty sites so confirmation bias should be on your side.

 

(Figures are rounded and ball parked  to keep it simple)

 

In the US the New York Times (so a lefty publication) reckons around 95million people could have the vaccine but haven't.

 

Trump polled around 75 million votes, assuming every single Trump voter is anti vax that still leaves 20 million non Trump voters, I suspect the number who are both anti vax and pro Trump will be a lot lower, but let's assume a high number of say 60 million Trump voters are anti vax - that means around 35 million Biden voters are also into national populist movements (or are they just plain stupid  ?) which begs the question why they didn't vote for Trump for POTUS (<conspiracy theory> or maybe they did ... </conspiracy theory>)

 

35% of the US is armed, if guns were banned overnight, do you think that all the bad guys would hand in their guns and gun deaths would instantly drop to 0, in the UK it was 30 in 2020 ? (and therefore do you think all the good guys will hand in theirs knowing all the bad guys are still armed ? )

 

According to https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/   (which is also left leaning ) there have been some 41k deaths due to guns so far this year, of which over half were suicides, 19k deaths were due to homicides and accidental death - twice as many people died in RTAs in 2019, the figure is reasonably stable so will probably be around the same this year) , so banning cars would save more lives and would also mean Greta would give you a gold star - win, win for you.

 

Interested to see the sources for your claims - but I guess there aren't any, it's just a "tolerant left" view of others.

 

 

 

You have left out the significant numbers who didn't vote at all, either through choice or racist state-level registration policies.

 

Most cars are useful, many guns not (e.g. assault rifles have no other purpose than mass killing), though significant numbers of both function as willy substitutes as much as what they were intended for.

 

Are there any real lefties in the US? I've always considered one of the main parties to be centre-right and the other to be further right (and under Trump revealed itself to be much further right).

 

John

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Nearholmer]

It’s almost pointless to compare the U.K. and US in terms of political orientations, because, much as it may upset some, our “political norms” are set far closer to those in the rest of Europe than to the US. 
 

The difference in attitude to collectively tax-funded health care, sort-of free at the point of use, is a strong indicator. I don’t think any significant party here would suggest a change away from that, yet in the US a tilt of the tiller towards it has become a major point of division. We are just different, the product of different experiences, and it makes no sense to force-fit the ideals of one continent onto the other.

 

As to guns and RTAs, if we followed US ratio, we’d have c800-900 gunshot deaths in the U.K. per annum. As it is we have about gun 30 homicides, and from what I can see roughly the same again adding suicides and accidental deaths. The UKs bigger issue is knife-carrying.

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Nearholmer

[AY Mod]

2 hours ago, Andy Kirkham said:

The number of confirmed Omicron Covid cases in South Africa is still relatively low, with 2,828 new confirmed cases recorded on Friday, but its speed in infecting young people in the country has alarmed health professionals, the Associated Press reports.

“We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with Covid-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath hospital, told an online press briefing.

“Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated,” said Mathivha.

 

If that is borne out as it spreads then it would look like many anti-vax, complacent and indifferent may come to regret their position, and quite quickly. No vaccination programme is going to get them from zero to double-jabbed with effective antibody levels quick enough.

 

Adapted vaccines and their first world Vs developing nations availability is likely to come to the fore again. who is more deserving of schemes and treatment; an enlightened antivaxxer or an isolated area in a developing country?

 

The no-one is safe until everyone is safe mantra hasn't been heard for a while but I think it will be back soon.

[Dunsignalling]

59 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

If that is borne out as it spreads then it would look like many anti-vax, complacent and indifferent may come to regret their position, and quite quickly. No vaccination programme is going to get them from zero to double-jabbed with effective antibody levels quick enough.

 

Adapted vaccines and their first world Vs developing nations availability is likely to come to the fore again. who is more deserving of schemes and treatment; an enlightened antivaxxer or an isolated area in a developing country?

 

The no-one is safe until everyone is safe mantra hasn't been heard for a while but I think it will be back soon.

At least this time (in the developed world, anyway) it 's beginning to look like the people with risky habits who will be more at risk. 

 

I think it's safe to say that there will be fewer anti-vaxxers come spring, but that will (tragically for some) not come about only through changing attitudes.....  

 

From a standing start today, double-jabbed protection means mid-February, plus a couple of weeks for the second one to reach maximum efficacy.

 

John

Edited November 27, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[APOLLO]

I read the new variant was to be named Nu (next Greek alphabet letter unused). Somehow that, and the one after it Xi have not been used. Why ? - We are not very far from Omega - then what ?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet

 

Brit15

Edited November 27, 2021 by APOLLO
typo

[Nearholmer]

7 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

We are not very far from Omega - then what ?

 

Yes, that worrying thought occured to me too.

 

I reckon they miss some out to avoid offending people; Xi Jinping might not be too keen on having one named after him.

[APOLLO]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Yes, that worrying thought occured to me too.

 

I reckon they miss some out to avoid offending people; Xi Jinping might not be too keen on having one named after him.

 

 Xi Strain - Yes that would have been very appropriate indeed !!!!!

 

Brit15

[Bernard Lamb]

27 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

I read the new variant was to be named Nu (next Greek alphabet letter unused). Somehow that, and the one after it Xi have not been used. Why ? - We are not very far from Omega - then what ?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet

 

Brit15

Armageddon?

Bernard

[adb968008]

61 passengers (10%) test positive from 600 passengers, on the two klm flights arriving in Amsterdam yesterday.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/27/travelers-arriving-in-schiphol-airport-from-south-africa-positive-for-covid.html

 

Thats a pretty high proportion, however you look at it.

 

Multiply that over the previous 10 days, and include AF, Lufthansa, BA, Virgin, and add in big connectors like Qatar, Emeriates, Etihad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Turkish,  then quarantining South Africa is already pointless.

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by adb968008

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, adb968008 said:

61 passengers (10%) test positive from 600 passengers, on the two klm flights arriving in Amsterdam yesterday.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/27/travelers-arriving-in-schiphol-airport-from-south-africa-positive-for-covid.html

 

Thats a pretty high proportion, however you look at it.

 

Multiply that over the previous 10 days, and include AF, Lufthansa, BA, Virgin, Kenya, Turkish,  then quarantining South Africa is already pointless.

 

Perhaps, but at least the Dutch put immediate flight bans in place and tested everyone coming back once they were aware of the existence of the new threat.  What do we do, give people several days and don't appear to step up requirements in the meantime, perhaps like the Dutch, immediate testing of all arrivals at the very least.

[adb968008]

59 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Perhaps, but at least the Dutch put immediate flight bans in place and tested everyone coming back once they were aware of the existence of the new threat.  What do we do, give people several days and don't appear to step up requirements in the meantime, perhaps like the Dutch, immediate testing of all arrivals at the very least.

Yes but its already pointless.

SA health authorities havent picked this up, theres no way theres 100 cases a day for the last few weeks in Johannesburg, if theres 60 on two flights, of just 600 people… and they didnt just get infectious from 1 passenger in 12 hours.

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by adb968008

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, adb968008 said:

Yes but its already pointless.

SA health authorities havent picked this up, theres no way theres 100 cases a day for the last few weeks in Johannesburg, if theres 60 on two flights.

 

This has been going round Joburg for several weeks at least, that or it really is the armageddon version that rose overnight, or thats two very unlucky aircraft.

 

I’m wondering why its not been detected here yet, I suspect they are holding back until they announce the scale, but I reckon theres several hundred cases already here.

Most probably, but, allowing unabated travel when you know there is a new risk isn't sensible, you need to shut the stable doors and see what you have, at the moment the barn doors are wide open and it's blowing a gale.

 

I loved how the DM has managed to wedge in HIV to this new variant to really ramp up the fear factor, it's reckoned an immuno suppressed person was the host for the mutation, so they will just throw in another horrific illness to stir the pot more.

 

Three months to new vaccine for this version, I'll just keep on socially distancing where I can I think.

[Nearholmer]

10 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

SA health authorities havent picked this up, theres no way theres 100 cases a day for the last few weeks in Johannesburg, if theres 60 on two flights, of just 600 people… and they didnt just get infectious from 1 passenger in 12 hours.

 

The found 60 odd cases of Covid (which is a lot anyway); they dont know yet of any of them are of the "variant of concern".

[Nearholmer]

27 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Armageddon?

 

Precisely why I expressed concern.

 

Which, given that I'm a non-believer is strong testimony to the power of John's (whichever particular one it was) writing.

[woodenhead]

11 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

The found 60 odd cases of Covid (which is a lot anyway); they dont know yet of any of them are of the "variant of concern".

But what is does demonstrate is that controls to stop people with Covid accessing flights are not working.  Given all the work that has been done to make travel 'safe', to have 10% of your passengers test positive for Covid on just two flights basically tells me that there is no such thing and all this testing before flying is pointless, are the tests failing or the flyers cheating?

Edited November 27, 2021 by woodenhead
grammar

[beast66606]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

You have left out the significant numbers who didn't vote at all, either through choice or racist state-level registration policies.

 

Most cars are useful, many guns not (e.g. assault rifles have no other purpose than mass killing), though significant numbers of both function as willy substitutes as much as what they were intended for.

 

Are there any real lefties in the US? I've always considered one of the main parties to be centre-right and the other to be further right (and under Trump revealed itself to be much further right).

 

John

 

 

 

 

ID checking for voting is not racist, it doesn't differentiate skin colour, it checks validity to vote - surely a true democracy would welcome exactly that, every person entitled to vote gets their vote, but only their vote.

 

I wondered who would mention assault rifles - perhaps this will dispel that rumour *

 

Any lefties in the US ? - are you serious ? - jeez, really ?

 

* not that I disagree with the general sentiment.

[adb968008]

37 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

The found 60 odd cases of Covid (which is a lot anyway); they dont know yet of any of them are of the "variant of concern".

Agreed.

That will be a very interesting metric.

 

But SA has been reporting 100 cases or thereabouts a day in total for the past few weeks. It only jumped to 1000+  cases overnight earlier this week, once Hong Kong shouted, and suddenly South Africa jumped in to action.

 

Remember this is Africa… dont assume testing, or anything for that matter as being reliable, complacency, cost and limitations apply to everything in life there… as you go further north of SA it only gets worse.

 

Imho they have been asleep at the wheel, but its understandable, much of the country is very rural…just doesnt have the infrastructure outside the cities. But it is something we should have already been cogniscent of, but thats nebulous now.

 

 

Now they are aware, expect some reasonable science data to start emerging over the next week, they have the skill to deploy, once they kick in. I suspect its not as transmissibly bad as currently projected, (No idea for vaccines or severity etc.) it just needs greater volumes of data to analysze and SA will probably start showing that over the next 2 weeks.

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

17 minutes ago, beast66606 said:

ID checking for voting is not racist,

 

Not if done very carefully, so as to ensure that it isn't, but it can be operated in ways that are either deliberately or accidentally discriminatory, and that accidental or deliberate discrimination can operate around race, gender, prosperity, age, or a host of other factors.

 

I could probably dream-up an identity scheme that looked pretty sound at first inspection, but made it impossible, or ludicrously difficult in practice, for a large proportion of any sort of people that I didn't want to vote to register, in a few minutes.

 

Even simply making voting a teeny-tiny bit more difficult can put people off, and put people off differentially according to race, gender, age etc., and that possibility has to be set against whatever benefit voter ID is claimed to have. In the UK, for instance, there isnt really any evidence to suggest that electoral frauds of a kind that could actually be cured by voter ID are common-enough to have an impact anyway.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Nearholmer

[monkeysarefun]

3 hours ago, boxbrownie said:

Australia did the same, their own residents were not allowed back into the country until this year.

When the delta outbreak occurred in India Australian residents were barred from returning from there  on pain of huge fines and jail if they tried it but otherwise residents were allowed in. Numbers were limited to the quarantine places that were available however so essentially it was just a dribble and a long wait unless you had the 15000 pound first class airfare which was the going rate at one point.

Or you were a tennis player.

Or Rita Ora.

[monkeysarefun]

31 minutes ago, beast66606 said:

ID checking for voting is not racist, it doesn't differentiate skin colour, it checks validity to vote - surely a true democracy would welcome exactly that, every person entitled to vote gets their vote, but only their vote.

More than 425 bills with provisions that restrict voting access have been introduced in 49 states in the 2021 legislative sessions.

Edited November 27, 2021 by monkeysarefun