Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Nearholmer]

4 minutes ago, Hobby said:

That will have to do, I'm afraid!

Dutch Elm disease? Didn’t that give rise to a mutation that virtually wiped-out its hosts?

 

(I know it’s a fungus not a virus, and it’s another example of a disease named after the place it was first identified, rather than where it first arose)

 

And, this article discusses extinction of a species of rats due to a pathogen. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/wbna27556747

[Nearholmer]

5 minutes ago, EddieB said:

The former is more likely to occur naturally, the latter through gain of function intervention...

You know what I’m going to ask now, don’t you?

 

Why?

 

(Sorry!) 

[Neil]

Not like the Telegraph to be so overtly critical (headline news) of a government initiative; 'Covid vaccine booster rollout at a standstill despite No 10 pledge to put it ‘on steroids'

 

While this is focussed on England it sort of fits with the experience here in Wales. Older friends and relatives have had boosters at or just after six months from their first set of jabs. My six months is up this Thursday and so far I'm still waiting to be called for the booster. There does seem to be a lack of urgency around the six months interval let alone anything that might reduce it to five months or less.

[EddieB]

10 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

You know what I’m going to ask now, don’t you?

 

Why?

 

(Sorry!) 

Yes - and you will also know why I won't give an answer.  Quite hypothetical.

 

Just nipping down to the wet market for some pangolin broth...

[Dunsignalling]

If the virus were to evolve simultaneously in either direction, one new strain becoming more transmissible and the other more deadly, the first would gain ascendance by gaining carriers and the second should decline by killing theirs more quickly, and thereby failing to maximise the rate of new infections. 

 

The odds may be against the nightmare scenario of more transmissible and more deadly, simply because there is presumably some ceiling to how much evolution can be going on within one cell at the same time.....

 

My optimism is based on there being no competitive advantage to be gained by any new variant becoming more deadly, so it probably won't happen, and even if it did, such a variant should be out-competed by a more catchable, less virulent strain. 

 

Of course, there is always the possibility of a new disease that will save the planet by removing the species causing the problems for all the others, but that's not this one, I think.

 

John

Edited December 7, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[EddieB]

19 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Dutch Elm disease? Didn’t that give rise to a mutation that virtually wiped-out its hosts?

 

(I know it’s a fungus not a virus, and it’s another example of a disease named after the place it was first identified, rather than where it first arose)

 

And, this article discusses extinction of a species of rats due to a pathogen. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/wbna27556747

Mostly diseases and their hosts evolve into a kind of symbiosis where the hosts' immunity "allows" a milder form to co-exist.

 

These are examples where an isolated population is suddenly introduced to a "new" pathogen, that has co-evolved in a similar host, but to which the population has had no opportunity to adapt to.

 

Think of the Fuegians, that Charles Darwin encountered on the Beagle voyage.  Within a few short years they were wiped out by "our" common diseases.

 

 

They call it paradise
I don't know why
You call someplace paradise,
kiss it goodbye

 

 

[EddieB]

On the other hand, I notice that travelling on the London Underground, the incidence of non-mask-wearing has declined appreciably in the last ten days.  People even wearing masks in Lidl.

[monkeysarefun]

Gotta say I'm with Nearholmer on this.  A virus will mutate, some of those mutations will not be in its best interests, statistically some of them could be more deadly to us. Eventually it will create the mutation that works best for it but prior to that is it impossible for it NOT to  inadvertently create a strain that is deadlier than delta while being as transmissable as omicron? 

 

Or, how about if it jumps species to create something entirely new?

 

Look at the Hendra virus. Its present in large fruit bats here in Australia. It doesnt kill them, so in that regard it has fulfilled the viruses stated aim of evolving into its most viable variant.

 

However, the virus is transmissable to horses who drink water or eat grass infected by bat droppings. To them it has an 80% mortality rate .

 

Horses can pass it to each other through infected fluids, and horses can also pass it on to humans - it has a 70% mortality rate here. There is no vaccine available for humans, however no human to human transmission has been recorded but the sample size is incredibly tiny - 7 cases -  so too small to verify if it is possible or not. 

 

So... its "natural" host is the fruit bat where it has evolved to be non lethal, but it also infects horses and humans which it kills. But it doesnt care about horses and humans  while the bats are there to infect.

 

 

Recently a new variant has been discovered which infects greater numbers of bat species thus increasing the viruses range south into more of NSW. That variant is obviously in the viruses best interest because it gains access to many more hosts. . The fact that some of those hosts will be horses and humans which it will most likely kill is immaterial to it if not to us. Its got the bats to hang out in.

 

A vaccine is available for horses, none for humans. Should this virus create a variant that learns how to directly infect humans without needing the horse interface, things will get a bit worrying. If human to human transmission occurs, or if the virus 'learns' that bit,  the covid pandemic could well  look insignificant in comparison.

 

Then theres the Lyssa virus...... 

 

 

 

 

[Michael Hodgson]

1 hour ago, Hobby said:

Think about it, in the animal kingdom it hasn't always been the biggest and most ferocious animal that has survived!

 

 

With an attitude like that I would advise you not to take up lion-timing.

Big game hunting with firearms is much safer.

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Why/how-so?

 

If a side-reaction of hosting the blasted thing was that it killed you after it had been with you for weeks, meanwhile breeding like a burrow-full of rabbits and hopping to everyone you encounter, and progressively doing the same to them, it would burn through the population at a cracking rate, leaving maybe a few truly isolated bunches of people unscathed, then die-out.

 

Agree, it could do.

HIV is an example. But we dont breathe HIV.

 

But the virus would need to take on chameleon like qualities to mask itself as a friendly virus, so our immune system doesn't unmask it and deal with it.

 

Much of the kill aspect of covid isnt to kill the host, but the host delayed in reacting to it (pneumonia), over-reacting to it.

Lets step back abit… as good as Omicron is, it wasnt created on November 19th, and it didnt just replicate itself across 3000+ miles of continent in several African countries with poor travel links on the same day.

 

my hypothesis is this variant has probably been about since at least August / September, taken a couple of months incubation before landing in Johannesburg in October, it then started silent growth to be large enough to start spreading via travel before coming large enough to detect quantities in November, and once identified, testing has highlighted its presence in several countries at the same time, but it was already established. I’m convinced its been here since end of October.

 

Remember it was Hong Kong that identified it first, in a South African traveller, which sparked retro active testing of samples on the continent. And the KLM flight found 10% of the passengers had Covid.. 2.5% overall with Omicron which is as good a random sample size as any… its clear SA wasnt on top of this.

In that scenario, we would know by now if omicron spreaders were long term infectious ( beyond the usual 10 days) by now, as theres probably already 100k with it globally, tens of thousands in Johannesburg alone, and as various professors say probably 1000+ here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

16 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

My optimism is based on there being no competitive advantage to be gained by any new variant becoming more deadly, so it probably won't happen, and even if it did, such a variant should be out-competed by a more catchable, less virulent strain. 

Competition between variants only happens after a mutation has arisen; it doesn’t prevent a mutation arising, merely helps determine whether it prospers or not.

 

To get your head around this you have to acknowledge that it is possible for a mutation to arise that is simultaneously super-spreading, and super deadly - if EddieB is right that that is possible, and I think he is, if one did, it would ‘sweep the board’, then go extinct, in short order.

 

And, if ‘gain of function’ work is possible, so too must be ‘balance of function engineering’. So, let’s hope somebody is busily engineering a super-spreading, super-mild variant, designed to elbow all the worse ones out, before nature coughs-up the nightmare version. Or, (❌Potential Conspiracy Theory Alert❌) maybe they already did.

[adb968008]

11 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

To get your head around this you have to acknowledge that it is possible for a mutation to arise that is simultaneously super-spreading, and super deadly - if EddieB is right that that is possible, and I think he is, if one did, it would ‘sweep the board’, then go extinct, in short order.

 

If it was a sudden mass extinction killer, we’d be seeing it in Johannesburg by now.

 

I’m convinced its been there for at least 2 months, to have reached the volumes of infectious needed to infect enough populous to reach the extremely tiny minority of travelling public able to afford long haul flights in South Africa, and at that, be large enough to infect 2.5% of those in just two flights.

 

Cast your mind back to January 2020… we were reporting less than 100 covid cases, yet travellers globally were going home complaining of catching covid in London… it was only by March we locked down as cases reached the numbers now being reported in South Africa… they are today, where we were back then… and despite low vaccines in SA.. their hospitalisations are still 2/3rd less than ours in March 2020 at the same stage.

 

Their hospitals have less than 3000 covid patients, we have over 8000 today. The death rates are lower too.

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

1 minute ago, adb968008 said:

If it was a sudden mass extinction killer,

I’m not suggesting that omicron is. 

 

Merely exploring whether such a thing could suddenly arise, as a counterpoint to the assumption (which I honestly think is incorrect) that evolution will inevitably drive the disease in the direction of super-spreading, low-potency, variants.

 

 

[beast66606]

29 minutes ago, Neil said:

Not like the Telegraph to be so overtly critical (headline news) of a government initiative; 'Covid vaccine booster rollout at a standstill despite No 10 pledge to put it ‘on steroids'

 

While this is focussed on England it sort of fits with the experience here in Wales. Older friends and relatives have had boosters at or just after six months from their first set of jabs. My six months is up this Thursday and so far I'm still waiting to be called for the booster. There does seem to be a lack of urgency around the six months interval let alone anything that might reduce it to five months or less.

 

Welsh health was devolved in 1999,  any complacency in your area (with the highest case rates for several weeks now I believe) is down to Welsh Health and the Labour leader, have you checked the local Welsh health board web site ? - I suspect that will have the information you need - https://bcuhb.nhs.wales/covid-19/covid-19-vaccinations/

 

Anyone in England want a spare invite for the booster ? , yet again I've had an invite telling me I'm not boosted - so I'm one who will be classified an anti-vaxxer by the judges, I will be counted in the total on the "not boosted" side of the equation, despite being boosted a few weeks ago, I wonder how many more there are in the same position.

 

[adb968008]

21 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I’m not suggesting that omicron is. 

 

Merely exploring whether such a thing could suddenly arise, as a counterpoint to the assumption (which I honestly think is incorrect) that evolution will inevitably drive the disease in the direction of super-spreading, low-potency, variants.

 

 

How do you conclude Gamma, Delta, Omicron etc are less super spreading than Alpha ?

its clearly got an evolutionary advantage that earlier versions havent got, otherwise the other version would still be here….

 

The virus is adapting itself to better fit in the human population, from whatever animal it previously inhabited.

 

Thats natural evolution.

 

The reason covid was a surprise to the world in 2019, is because it clearly had adapted to its previous host animal, and had adapted to such a state as to not kill its host animal… otherwise the media would have been reporting mass extinctions of Pangolins (assumed previous animal host) and science would have been trying to understand why… like BSE, Foot and Mouth etc…humans had no idea, so clearly it wasn't affecting that host and they coexisted.

 

A counter example is Ebola, its deadly to humans, but also to animals..they cant live with it either. So that ones got potential to be a an even bigger problem if a covid spreading quality of ebola suddenly emerged..but its deadly nature is its weakness..it cant spread as easily as covid and that weakness was exploited to shut it down in humans back in 2016.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

12 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

How do you conclude Gamma, Delta, Omicron etc are less super spreading than Alpha ?

I don’t.

 

Where did you get that impression?

 

13 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

The virus is adapting itself

 

Or, put another way: random processes are giving rise to mutations, some of which survive well, some of which don’t.

 

I get overly picky about terms like “adapting itself”, because they imply agency, consciousness etc, which I’m guessing isn’t what you meant.

[Dunsignalling]

35 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I’m not suggesting that omicron is. 

 

Merely exploring whether such a thing could suddenly arise, as a counterpoint to the assumption (which I honestly think is incorrect) that evolution will inevitably drive the disease in the direction of super-spreading, low-potency, variants.

 

 

Thing is, Covid has a lethal capability that it doesn't actually need any more (or at least, presumably, anywhere other than where the previous host species is common).

 

On the basis of use it or lose it, that's a hunk of DNA that's not contributing to the propagation of the virus, but the virus can't detect this, so it won't do anything about it directly. However, random mutations will be happening all the time, some of which will incorporate reduced virulence. Others will be more transmissible and less virulent, and some may up the ante on both.

 

The fact remains that Natural Selection eventually replaces (or minimises) redundant features to make room for something better suited to the real world conditions the species encounters. Virulence doesn't actually contribute to the success of the virus, and increased virulence wouldn't confer a competitive advantage of itself.

 

Your nightmare could come true, but I suspect the emergence of a super-spreading, super-killing variant would be more bad luck than genetic inevitability. Even if it does, excessive human interconnectedness will be what enables to to do most of the damage..... 

 

John

Edited December 7, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

21 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I don’t.

 

Where did you get that impression?

 

Did I misread your post ?

21 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Or, put another way: random processes are giving rise to mutations, some of which survive well, some of which don’t.

 

I get overly picky about terms like “adapting itself”, because they imply agency, consciousness etc, which I’m guessing isn’t what you meant.

Adaption in Darwinian sense.

Theres versions, successful ones thrive, lesser ones fail.

 

i’m not suggesting covid is living and breeding, but its indirectly no different to anthing else in the world, plants, animals, weather, even computer software.. good versions thrive, bad versions fail.. it adapts to its environment, via whatever mechanism applied (clone, replication, breeding, global warming, a software developer writing code, mail order being replaced by internet, the high st by Amazon… a it natural cycle of action and reaction that keeps the world competitive, young, fit and evolving.

 

In simple…We are in agreement.

 

Covid itself could have weaknesses to other viruses, its already suggested the common cold (which virus wasn't disclosed) could out compete covid in the body and extinguish it.. Omicron might have competition in the northern hemisphere winter that it didnt have in spring South Africa.

Coming back to Omicron, its a successful adaption of alpha, thats closer fitting its host and thus its more successful at propogation.

 

History leans towards a combination of human adaption to coronaviruses and the viruses impact on humans becoming less severe.. H1N1 caused 1918 flu pandemic, but despite nearly the whole worlds population being recycled in that time, removing the immunity, it isnt the killer it once was… because it also is an adaption to humans, though without immunity there is the risk it could adapt back to a deadly variant once more in the future.

why should covid19 be uniquely different ?

 

I wouldnt be surprised if in the long future its discovered that Covid19 is on a second pass through the human species, from hundreds if not thousands of years ago.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

8 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I don’t.

 

Where did you get that impression?

 

 

Or, put another way: random processes are giving rise to mutations, some of which survive well, some of which don’t.

 

I get overly picky about terms like “adapting itself”, because they imply agency, consciousness etc, which I’m guessing isn’t what you meant.

Though if you leave natural selection to its own devices for long enough, it can come up with a pretty good imitation of agency, consciousness, etc.

 

John

[Nearholmer]

3 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

can come up with a pretty good imitation of agency, consciousness, etc.

Only to us, because we look at it in a human-centric fashion, and ladle a load of post-hocracy (is that a word?) over it.

[EddieB]

50 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Lets step back abit… as good as Omicron is, it wasnt created on November 19th, and it didnt just replicate itself across 3000+ miles of continent in several African countries with poor travel links on the same day.

 

my hypothesis is this variant has probably been about since at least August / September, taken a couple of months incubation before landing in Johannesburg in October, it then started silent growth to be large enough to start spreading via travel before coming large enough to detect quantities in November, and once identified, testing has highlighted its presence in several countries at the same time, but it was already established. I’m convinced its been here since end of October.

Be careful of saying "created".

 

Omicron represents an accumulation of around 30 point mutations in the protein spike compared to the first described forms.  As such it is highly unlikely to have emerged fully-fledged upon a waiting world.

 

Has there been any evidence of intermediate forms, and their characteristics?

 

It's an inexact science, but there are studies that measure average rates of mutations - I've seen an average of 11 days per mutation for Covid-19.

 

Just off to consult Messrs. Duckworth and Lewis...

[Nearholmer]

17 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Covid has a lethal capability that it doesn't actually need any more

Was Covid-19 ever dependant upon killing its host (whatever that might have been) in order to survive? I’ve never seen that suggested.

 

The fact that it does kill some, I thought was just a sort-of (unhappy for us) side-affect. What the Americans in times of war call “collateral damage”.

 

22 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Your nightmare could come true, but I suspect the emergence of a super-spreading, super-killing variant would be more bad luck than genetic inevitability

Yes, I never suggested or thought that it was inevitable (although given enough time, monkeys, and typewriters, maybe it is).

 
It would definitely be bad luck!

[adb968008]

13 minutes ago, EddieB said:

Be careful of saying "created".

 

Omicron represents an accumulation of around 30 point mutations in the protein spike compared to the first described forms.  As such it is highly unlikely to have emerged fully-fledged upon a waiting world.

 

Has there been any evidence of intermediate forms, and their characteristics?

 

It's an inexact science, but there are studies that measure average rates of mutations - I've seen an average of 11 days per mutation for Covid-19.

 

Just off to consult Messrs. Duckworth and Lewis...

First it was
Becareful saying adapted.

 

now its

Becareful saying created.

 

Can I adapt / change / emerge / version control / orientate / angle / radiate / rotate / pitch / place / solutionise / explode / implode / reverse / high five / out of the box / trend / propose / best case / lateral think / cause / cross pollinate / travel / take off / land on / coalesce / ground well / poll / spin / nit pick or head-spin or noodle towards

 

to saying it somehow changes ?

 

I think the point was clear enough to any reader…

 

it didnt just pop-up on November 19th… its been around a while longer.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by adb968008

[EddieB]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

To get your head around this you have to acknowledge that it is possible for a mutation to arise that is simultaneously super-spreading, and super deadly - if EddieB is right that that is possible, and I think he is, if one did, it would ‘sweep the board’, then go extinct, in short order.

 

You can go the distance
We'll find out in the long run
(In the long run)
We can handle some resistance
If our love is a strong one
(Is a strong one)

People talkin' about us
They got nothin' else to do
When it all comes down
We will still come through

In the long run
Ooh, I want to tell you
It's a long run

 

 

(That cultural reference may be too bordering on the obscure).

[Nearholmer]

51 minutes ago, beast66606 said:

wonder how many more there are in the same position.

I got several invitations, but they’ve stopped coming now, so I think the records system at the surgery has caught-up with the fact that I’d been to a vaccination centre, and got the third, before they’d issued the invitation (both events happened on the same day: one day over six months).