Hitachi trains grounded

[SouthernMafia]

Guards being trained on 387s today to run in service between Swindon and Didcot from tomorrow.

[Coryton]

32 minutes ago, Artless Bodger said:

Isn't there an AAR standard or something for loco control stands? One reason why GBRF have used the EMD control stand for the new 69s is continuity with 66s for drivers. I

 

Yes I think that's what I was vaguely thinking of.

 

Plus the fact that in North America they don't tend to buy batches of locomotives in classes the way we do in the UK.

[Hobby]

16 minutes ago, G-BOAF said:

 

 

Why would i have to pay more? The savings would come from a) not having to issue compensation for journey's not taken (i.e. compensation for delays and cancellations should be properly enforced and automated), and would also be paid as a pool by rolling stock manufacturers/leasors, again against the cost of compensation for when things go wrong.

 

As noted either here or on railforums, if this had happened pre COVID the economic consequences would have been HUGE, and far more than the cost of a strategic reserve of trains. I'm not saying that it would cover all stock, but a fleet of 30 could, for example cover half the LNER service and about 25% of the GWR service at the same time. Plus if they were 9-car units they would have higher capacity than when HSTs were in squadron service.

 

The fact is there should never be a situation where around half of the intercity service in the UK is down due to a fault. This is unprecedented. Heck when the Bulleid Pacifics were withdrawn for inspection after the crank axle failure, there was spare capcity on hand (e.g. V2s) to cover for them. 

 

You've rather shot yourself in the foot with that, you admit the spare fleet would not be enough to cover a full service so compensation payments will not be reduced by very much. 

 

Also the cost of a spare fleet is enormous. I really wish people wouldn't compare today with steam days, there is no useful comparison. Back in those days that spare stock was used for footie specials and excursions as well both of which just don't happen these days. Most people have their own transport and the modern road system makes coaches much more suitable for both the things I mentioned. So the stock will just sit there decaying. And the cost of its ongoing maintenance has to come from somewhere, that will be the ticket price. 

 

Its a bad position we see ourselves in, granted, but it will be fixed and things will get back to normal, Hitachi and the TOCs will see to that. But its also unique in that we've never had such an issue that has affected so much of the network. We need to be careful we don't overreact to it by spending billions for what should be a one off scenario. 

[Supaned]

19 minutes ago, G-BOAF said:

Either - I can't imagine a 6-monthly refresher on HSTs would be that much of an issue; you could have one set (rotating through the warm stored pool) that is constantly offering refresher courses. If Virgin managed it with the 90+Mk3s for a few years, it can't be impossible.

Also given the vast majority of drivers and conductors have many decades of experience on the HSTs, it will be like riding a bike.  I'd quite happily get into an HST driven by someone who hasn't driven one for a few years/months, as long as they know the route and had long term past familiarity. Its not as if they will forget the kinnetics of an HST vs an IEP - the driving positions etc are very different so less risk of momentarily forgetting you are in one vs another type of train. And it would only be for a few weeks, so the risk of a major accident (risk x time) would be minimal.

 

Yes and no. And I'll give an example.

 

I'm a train driver and have been for 21 years. I've signed a lot of route miles and a lot of different traction types.

 

My current TOC uses 3 different traction types , including HSTs , and I am qualified to drive and instruct on all 3 types. We only have limited HST work, it can be months between turns (although enough to retain that competency on paper) and often that HST turn may only be one way for 35 minutes in the seat with only one station stop. They are a very different beast to anything else, and even though I have been driving them from the outset , you still need to maintain that "feel" for them and they can and will catch out people if you aren't on the ball with them.

 

The same applies for other traction types - however much I may have been familiar with them and how many miles I may have driven them, that "feel" has now gone. Class 47s were my basic traction and if I got into one now , I can guarantee I'd be horrified by the braking performance compared to the trains I drive on a daily basis. Granted , I'd get used to it again in time , but a once every six months refresher isn't going to achieve that.

 

The logistics of traincrew knowledge are such that unique or unusual traction or routes is more of an issue than a solution, further compounded by the current pandemic where the majority of TOCs have strict agreements regarding training "bubbles" on a one-to-one basis - it would simply take too long to get enough people trained to be able to run a service, so unless the IETs are out for a long term period it's just not feasible.

 

And as for the "good old days" of BR steam, yes , traincrews were just expected to get on with it , so when V2s were sent to the Southern they did just that, however , times and standards have moved on, and anyone in charge of a large machine such as a train should be expected to be very familiar with it and it's operation rather than a quick once over and off you go.

[fezza]

I can't help thinking when we last had a similar crisis - the 1988/9 sprinter crisis - we still had plenty of spare Mk1s and freight locos available to fill the emergency void. That wasn't the 1950s, but the late 1980s... not a million years ago.... 50s to Barnstaple were the highlight for me! 

[eastglosmog]

In the meantime, we have the fabulous sound of 3 car Thames Turbo's roaring up and down the Cotswold line all day again (in spite of Real Time Trains calling them Electric Multiple Units).  A small silver lining to this particular cloud!

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, G-BOAF said:

Either - I can't imagine a 6-monthly refresher on HSTs would be that much of an issue; you could have one set (rotating through the warm stored pool) that is constantly offering refresher courses. If Virgin managed it with the 90+Mk3s for a few years, it can't be impossible.

Also given the vast majority of drivers and conductors have many decades of experience on the HSTs, it will be like riding a bike.  I'd quite happily get into an HST driven by someone who hasn't driven one for a few years/months, as long as they know the route and had long term past familiarity. Its not as if they will forget the kinnetics of an HST vs an IEP - the driving positions etc are very different so less risk of momentarily forgetting you are in one vs another type of train. And it would only be for a few weeks, so the risk of a major accident (risk x time) would be minimal.

 

 

 

 

 

Why would i have to pay more? The savings would come from a) not having to issue compensation for journey's not taken (i.e. compensation for delays and cancellations should be properly enforced and automated), and would also be paid as a pool by rolling stock manufacturers/leasors, again against the cost of compensation for when things go wrong.

 

As noted either here or on railforums, if this had happened pre COVID the economic consequences would have been HUGE, and far more than the cost of a strategic reserve of trains. I'm not saying that it would cover all stock, but a fleet of 30 could, for example cover half the LNER service and about 25% of the GWR service at the same time. Plus if they were 9-car units they would have higher capacity than when HSTs were in squadron service.

 

The fact is there should never be a situation where around half of the intercity service in the UK is down due to a fault. This is unprecedented. Heck when the Bulleid Pacifics were withdrawn for inspection after the crank axle failure, there was spare capcity on hand (e.g. V2s) to cover for them. This short of flexability existed in the 1950s and there is no reason it should not exist today, except for the requirements for any spare cash to profit shareholders with passengers paying the price when things go wrong.

The difference between a nationalised rail service and a privatised one in a nutshell. But saving the costs of storing and maintaining stock that was only used for six weeks in high summer was one of the prime targets of the Beeching plan, so a lack of contingency cover goes back rather further. Modern accountancy and any form of "spare" capacity are mutually exclusive because hiring in buses when necessary costs a fraction of the price.  

 

What has moved on since Crewkerne, though, is that those who do use trains tend to cover higher mileages but the proportion of the population that doesn't use rail at all has grown considerably. In many parts of the country the nearest railhead is so far away that few will even consider using it.

 

Rail expenditure has become a hard sell politically partly because of that, but also because of the imbalance in favour of the London commuter network. That nowadays extends to York and Bristol, hence much of the outcry in the present circumstances. High speed long distance daily commuting has increased massively, and now exceeds the range that can realistically be covered using bus replacement. Away from that, few taxpayers perceive much benefit from the public money thrown at rail which, in real terms, dwarfs what BR was costing before privatisation and it is widely and cynically expected that HS2 will turn out to be more of the same.  

 

Getting back to the idea of a warm-stored strategic reserve; it couldn't cover its costs unless something like this happened every year. The privatised operators wouldn't pay for one if it reduced their bottom line (and most are struggling financially already), the present government isn't willing to do so out of public funds, so that leaves the passenger...  

 

John

 

 

  

Edited May 9, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Reorte]

3 hours ago, Kris said:

 

This has been happening for a very long time however. The HST was the only long distance express on the Great Western line for nearly 20 years. Had a problem as serious as this one arisen during this time, the challenges faced by the TOC would have been just the same. 

Fair point, but even 20 years ago the HSTs had been around for long enough that they were very well known, tried and tested so the benefits of operating a single class would've been realised at considerably less risk.

 

TBH it's hard to see what a practical alterantive is to having a fairly widespread introduction of something new at roughly the same time, and having to take a chance of having to deal with this sort of issue. That's life, it doesn't always go smoothly.

[fezza]

1 minute ago, Reorte said:

Fair point, but even 20 years ago the HSTs had been around for long enough that they were very well known, tried and tested so the benefits of operating a single class would've been realised at considerably less risk.

 

 

 

And of course there were plenty of Mk1s and spare loco capacity in the 1980s, so if things did go wrong with HSTs the risk to services of relying on a single class was lower. 

[Hobby]

It could be said that the 8xx class are the modern equivalent of the HST, looking at where they've been introduced there are many parallels. 

 

It's very unusual to see an issue that grounds a fleet like this, though. 

[vlvstvir]

Penzance just now - have been told this 802 isn’t going anywhere! Thank goodness for the old Castles! 

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, Coryton said:

Anyone know what the situation is with locomotives in North America?

 

They seem to have a lot more standardisation than we do.

 

Because North America is a goods railway with the occasional passenger train thrown in as an afterthought.

 

If a fleet-wide problem like this happened to Amtrak/VIA/MTBA/CalTrain/Metrolink/GO/etc they would be out of service for the duration, because like most of the rest of the world they no longer have abundant spare equipment sitting off to the side.

[black and decker boy]

2 hours ago, G-BOAF said:

This short of flexability existed in the 1950s and there is no reason it should not exist today, except for the requirements for any spare cash to profit shareholders with passengers paying the price when things go wrong.

But creating, using & funding such a reserve fleet would have to be written into franchise contracts by DfT. This would reduce the profitability of the franchise thus either premia or subsidy would change negatively. For that reason alone, HMG will never sanction such a fleet 

 

Post COVID, we are now moving beyond private sector risk & profit with revenue risk being held by DfT and the operating company simply paid a very very small fee for running the trains.

 

Let’s not forget that LNER is a state run TOC. The only shareholder is U.K. PLC.

Edited May 9, 2021 by black and decker boy
Typo

[mdvle]

7 hours ago, adb968008 said:

No they wet lease, or dry lease spare aircraft.

Very often then will substitute gauge and fly a different aircraft, and in extreme cases they might even change or combine routings.

The last option is to give up and cancel £100k of flight revenues.

 

* yet another one reveals his own imagination.

 

For something like the grounding of the 737 MAX, which is a relatively small fleet, yes that would happen - thanks in a large part because they don't face the same restrictions the railways do in needing route knowledge.

 

But if say every 737 on the planet had to be grounded there would be a number of airlines would be in trouble, as there simply isn't enough spare operating aircraft capacity, and that is a closer example to the problems facing GWR/etc.

 

 

[Ian Hargrave]

6 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Despite some nay sayers on here, there are some  shuffling the paperwork making the impossible, possible...

 

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/SWI/2021-05-10/0200-0159?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt&toc=XC

thank goodness for creativity in railway management.

 

 

But isn’t this the XC 125 set that as has been already reported  they were loaning to assist in the crisis ? 

[Reorte]

4 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

But creating, using & funding such a reserve fleet would have to be written into franchise contracts by DfT. This would reduce the profitability of the franchise this either premise or subsidy would change negatively. For that reason alone, HMG will never sanction such a fleet

I suppose there's also the aspect that breakdowns were more common then so you needed more lying around to make up for them. But it was clear even at the time that large amounts of very rarely used stock simply wasn't viable, and probably never had been. As much as I usually prefer the view looking backwards to forwards it was probably a mistake even for the time and won't be repeated; whether or not we've gone too much from one extreme to the other though, that's probably an argument that could go on forever.

[Michael Hodgson]

8 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

thank goodness for creativity in railway management.

 

 

... and in Accountancy during lockdowns!

[adb968008]

7 minutes ago, Ian Hargrave said:

But isn’t this the XC 125 set that as has been already reported  they were loaning to assist in the crisis ? 

its much more than just 1 HST extending its self from an ecs, its a full days diagram.

I am quite sure, there are more changes to come to, and each one will be heavily devoured and and chewed over by the mob.

Edited May 9, 2021 by adb968008

[Coryton]

8 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

Because North America is a goods railway with the occasional passenger train thrown in as an afterthought.

 

If a fleet-wide problem like this happened to Amtrak/VIA/MTBA/CalTrain/Metrolink/GO/etc they would be out of service for the duration, because like most of the rest of the world they no longer have abundant spare equipment sitting off to the side.

 

Yes I'm sure this would be a problem in North America too - I was just curious about the extent to which drivers there need to be specifically trained on different types of locomotive.

 

Maybe not now, but there was a time when passenger services did have a degree of flexibility that we don't in the UK, e.g. borrowing coaches from commuter operations and using them to strengthen Amtrak trains over national holidays. 

 

And this is over 20 years ago now, but I was on an Amtrak train that was severely delayed (spent most of the night stuck at some frozen points) and when we did get going the crew soon went out of hours. I was told that the replacement crew came from a freight railroad, and the conductor was therefore just dealing with the safety aspects and not checking tickets.

 

But as more passenger operations move to multiple units I'm sure like here flexibility is being lost.

 

Incidentally, I'd agree that that for most long distance services North America has freight railroads with the odd passenger train (or not), and that's to some extent the case for many local operations. But I wouldn't describe the North East corridor and commuter services along it like that.

[Banger Blue]

XC will be running between Bristol TM & Swindon using both Voyager & HST stock.

[Hobby]

19 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Despite some nay sayers on here, there are some  clever folks shuffling the paperwork making the impossible, possible...

 

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/SWI/2021-05-10/0200-0159?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt&toc=XC

thank goodness for creativity in railway management.

The start of a plan is starting to arise

 

 

Erm, I said several pages ago that XC were running specials, I assume you missed the posts. Our Bristol staff sign the route and Voyagers are also signed off over the route. So no real surprise. 

Edited May 9, 2021 by Hobby

[caradoc]

3 hours ago, Tony Teague said:

Interestingly, searches of Real Time Trains for Peterborough so far today shows only 1 cancellation, whilst Reading shows 10 - these include trains passing through, so perhaps they are getting through inspections more quickly, or finding fewer faults than anticipated?

 

I would expect the affected TOCs to have invoked the Planned Cancellation procedure, in which, as long as it is agreed between TOC and NR Controls before 2200, an Emergency timetable (TT) becomes the next days planned TT; The inference being that providing it is advertised to the public within the specified period the normal planned TT can be scrapped and replaced. Only trains cancelled against the Emergency TT, as opposed to the normal TT, then show as cancellations in the system. 

 

[caradoc]

2 hours ago, G-BOAF said:

And it would only be for a few weeks, so the risk of a major accident (risk x time) would be minimal.

 

Well that's alright then. Not sure RAIB would agree however. 

 

2 hours ago, Hobby said:

But its also unique in that we've never had such an issue that has affected so much of the network. We need to be careful we don't overreact to it by spending billions for what should be a one off scenario. 

 

 

The one similar, in some ways, issue we had was the Gauge Corner Cracking crisis in the aftermath of Hatfield; An absolutely dreadful time for everyone involved with the rail industry (not forgetting those affected by the accident itself of course). But the railway recovered and new processes were developed to prevent any recurrence. 

 

 

 

[Hobby]

12 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Maybe, I started ignoring yours, i’ll return to now to continuing to do so.

 

Charming! 

 

For the rest of you the services are alternating Voyager and HST workings according to the email I've seen. 

[Ian Hargrave]

15 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

its much more than just 1 HST extending its self from an ecs, its a full days diagram.

I am quite sure, there are more changes to come to, and each one will be heavily devoured and and chewed over by the mob.

And it’s the only full set (7) operational spare. We must doff our hats to the much unjustly  maligned XC and their main fleet of now venerable 220/1. They must be up to their proverbial necks in it right now. Compliments to their long suffering train crews and the maintenance engineers at Barton that keep what is now the proverbial Thin Red Line of extensive IC workings operational.Don’t scorn the Voyagers. We need them.....and of course the small fleet of 125’s