Ravenser Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, MartinRS said: To be fair to OO modellers SK did say he could see a time when Hornby might run out of prototypes to reproduce in 00 some time in the future. (Introducing Hornby TT:120 youtube video, 9 min 30 seconds in). I'm sure Hornby will continue making OO products, though the number of new prototypes they can reproduce is limited and subject to competition. They have the UK prototype market to themselves for now in TT:120. Some OO contributors the various threads the launch of TT:120 has generated have shown some level of concern about this. Hornby can keep knocking out models from the OO tooling they already have . It works for Dapol. It's what a lot of Continental manufacturers were forced to do when the market got saturated, the prices got silly and the money ran out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewshimmin Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 45 minutes ago, MartinRS said: To be fair to OO modellers SK did say he could see a time when Hornby might run out of prototypes to reproduce in 00 some time in the future. (Introducing Hornby TT:120 youtube video, 9 min 30 seconds in). I'm sure Hornby will continue making OO products, though the number of new prototypes they can reproduce is limited and subject to competition. They have the UK prototype market to themselves for now in TT:120. Some OO contributors the various threads the launch of TT:120 has generated have shown some level of concern about this. I think people are extrapolating rather wildly from a throw away remark. I heard that as Mr Kohler saying that in OO, a large proportion of the prototypes which are suitable for Hornby's core market of large volume production are already available, and hence there is likely to be diminishing returns for Hornby in looking for other prototypes to model to expand their market. I think taking that as meaning a diminished commitment to OO as a whole is absurd given the number and variety of new models Hornby has released and continues to release in OO. If they think they can sell them, they'll sell them! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Dunsignalling Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Ravenser said: But actually , we don't know any of that . It's entirely speculative. - We don't know the size of the British market for model railways. - We don't know what proportions of Hornby Hobbies' turnover relate to model railways and what to other things. We don't know how big Hornby International is, and what proportion of Hornby's model railway activity is in HO, N and TT - We don't know the split /share of different gauges/scales within British modelling. (I've been criticised in the past for quoting market shares based on a Model Rail survey - I was told the numbers are worthless. Andy has run a survey on here - but we are quite often told that the RMWeb community isn't representative of the hobby as a whole... ) - We have some idea of turnover for Bachmann Europe and Peco - but quite a bit of Peco's sales may be outside Britain , and we don't have any estimate of that proportion. Some of their sales revenues are magazines and Pecorama - we don't have estimates for that.. Transfer pricing might affect Bachmann Europe's figures - Rapido are primarily manufacturers in the North American market, so we have little idea of the size of their British activity - We have very little idea of the current turnover of anyone else. A certain amount is in N not OO, or in O but we don't have any numbers as to the split... So we are speculating on Unknown Number A (Hornby's OO turnover) as a proportion of Unknown Number B (total UK market) . We are then guessing at Unknown Numbers M, N , O , P, and Q (new entrants' turnover) and what proportion of it is from OO to arrive at Unknown Number X (new entrants' OO revenue). This is followed by a guess as to whether Unknown Number X is a significant size relative to Unknown Number B, and an assertion that Unknown Number X has grown significantly relative to Unknown Number B in recent years. A further assumption is then piled on top of this - that any growth in Unknown Number X has come at the expense of Incumbant 1 /Unknown Number B, rather than Incumbant 2 or 3 , or as a result of growth in the overall market , or as a result of shifts between scales This isn't a commercial costing. The uncertainties make Reading the Tea - leaves look reliable A confident declaration is then made on the basis of this tower of uncertanties that X,Y, and Z are eating Incumbant 1s lunch... RevolutionBen has suggested that there are 70,000 people active in N. That is a figure that most of use find startling to the point of disbelief. In that figure he is assuming a 40% growth over the last 5 years or so, due to media exposure and the pandemic. That too is an extraordinary number. It's been understood for many years that the size of the hobby has been in gentle decline for decades. Even a 10% increase in the size of the hobby over the last 5 years would be a dramatic reversal But for the purposes of this exercise , let's run with a very high estimate of the size of N 5% of 70,000 is 3500. Estimates from carton markings are that Hornby must have already sold at least 2000 of the Scotsman sets. It is reasonable to believe that The Easterner has sold similar numbers, and that people have bought either one or the other as a starter pack, not both. It looks like Hornby have already sold TT:120 sets to over 3500 people, which is more than 5% of the number active in N. Therefore they have their equivalent of 5% of the N gauge market, with 9 months of the year still to go But the critical thing is whether or not they buy more, is it not. I once placed a pre-order with Heljan for one of the HO 37s they ended up never making, but it was for the sake of owning a "first" and I would have been unlikely to follow it up with further purchases. I wonder how many of Hornby's sales thus far have been made on a similar basis... John 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britishcolumbian Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, MartinRS said: It is the case that the envisioned target market was non-modellers though I am sure they welcome sales to the kind of person who reads and contributes to RMweb. I suspect Hornby might reconsider their marketing strategy. In the Introducing Hornby TT:120 youtube video (15 min, 30 seconds in) SK makes it absolutely clear that a newspaper campaign was planned. I have seen no evidence of this and think Hornby might reduce their marketing budget because things are going so well. I bet all the Hornby team realise TT:120 is now a modeller's scale. I suspect in his secret heart SK always knew that would be the case but had to talk up the line about a new, different target market in order to mollify the Board and get them on side with starting production... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Dunsignalling Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just now, britishcolumbian said: I suspect in his secret heart SK always knew that would be the case but had to talk up the line about a new, different target market in order to mollify the Board and get them on side with starting production... In which case, I wouldn't like to be in his shoes if his much vaunted new market turns out to be illusory.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britishcolumbian Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: In which case, I wouldn't like to be in his shoes if his much vaunted new market turns out to be illusory.... Available evidence suggests it won't be... Your negativity and rehashing of the same thing over and over and over and over and over and again is starting to get tiresome even to me, and I used to teach ESL... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Dunsignalling Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, britishcolumbian said: Available evidence suggests it won't be... Your negativity and rehashing of the same thing over and over and over and over and over and again is starting to get tiresome even to me, and I used to teach ESL... You have the same effect on me. Unsurprisingly. Both our positions are entirely speculative and neither of us will be proven right or wrong for a couple of years yet. Edited January 31, 2023 by Dunsignalling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britishcolumbian Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: You have the same effect on me. Unsurprisingly. You're bringing it upon yourself - I'm only reacting to you. I'd *much* rather be talking about trains and models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britishcolumbian Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 @Dunsignalling 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porfuera Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: You have the same effect on me. Unsurprisingly. Well for you the answer is to do what you said you were going to do previously. It will have the added advantage that you can deal with your cognitive dissonance at the same time. Sadly those of us that want to discuss TT:120 in a positive way don't have the same option. Of course if you're not going to leave then maybe you could share with us what you have ordered in TT:120 and what your layout plans are? Edited January 31, 2023 by Porfuera 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold ruggedpeak Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, andrewshimmin said: I think people are extrapolating rather wildly from a throw away remark. Slip of the tongue more like, the list of things not produced in OO from the modern era is very long, let alone the historic D&E era. When we have decent quality RTR models of 360's, 321's, coaches in not yet done in relevant liveries like Chiltern Mk4's etc etc then maybe we might run out of things to model. However that is a very long way off, even with the new entrants to the hobby. Biggest problem is some outfits doing upgraded stuff we already have, like 37's and 47's, which some of us already have too many of...... Suspect there are one or two steam era things still to be done....... Good news is if TT:120 takes off the R&D may facilitate more OO stuff? Edited January 31, 2023 by ruggedpeak typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Dunsignalling Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, Porfuera said: Well for you the answer is to do what you said you were going to do previously. It will have the added advantage that you can deal with your cognitive dissonance at the same time. Sadly those of us that want to discuss TT:120 in a positive way don't have the same option. Of course if you're not going to leave then maybe you could share with us what you have ordered in TT:120 and what your layout plans are? Just trying to inject a little reality among the worshippers! 🤡 17 minutes ago, britishcolumbian said: @Dunsignalling Zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinRS Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: I've had my fun for a month or two, you can turn your prayer mats back towards Margate, now.😃 I've said it before and I'll say it again. Say after me: Our Simon who art in Margate Hornby be thy name... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porfuera Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: Just trying to inject a little reality among the worshippers! 🤡 No worship from me - TT:120 will be the first thing I've bought from Hornby in over a decade, I imagine. I prefer N and 0. But that said I am looking forward to receiving my first TT:120 items - a refreshing change. It is just that I and some others here find your constant repetition and negativity to be draining and boring in equal measure. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HExpressD Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: Just trying to inject a little reality among the worshippers! 🤡 I'm rather baffled this is your view point when Hornby is, in my limited browsing and modelling, by far the most criticised and lambasted manufacturer on here and maybe in general. Presumably on the other manufactures thread where people sing praise you have posted a similar viewpoint? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britishcolumbian Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 22 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: 🤡 Very astute self portrait there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Dunsignalling Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just now, HExpressD said: I'm rather baffled this is your view point when Hornby is, in my limited browsing and modelling, by far the most criticised and lambasted manufacturer on here and maybe in general. Presumably on the other manufactures thread where people sing praise you have posted a similar viewpoint? Only some of them! 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britishcolumbian Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 23 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: Just trying to inject a little reality among the worshippers! And, worshipper? I have never in my life bought a model of a British train, nevermind anything from Hornby. The 1:120 is why I'm here, not the manufacturer. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Revolution Ben Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, Ravenser said: RevolutionBen has suggested that there are 70,000 people active in N. That is a figure that most of use find startling to the point of disbelief. Hi there, Yes, it is probably an overestimate - the number was given as part of a discussion on pricing and to make the point that the dominant factor on the pricing of any model railway product is the number you expect to make. If anything a smaller market actually adds to the weight of my remark in that context. cheers Ben A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HExpressD Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: Only some of them! 😉 If I may suggest, would it not be more productive to spend time on the forums for the manufacturers you choose to support and not the ones you don't? I note on the right hand side that you have the 4th most amount of posts on this thread, which if you don't (and perhaps never have/never will) have any intention of buying any Hornby TT, isn't it all a bit pointless? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Dunsignalling Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, HExpressD said: If I may suggest, would it not be more productive to spend time on the forums for the manufacturers you choose to support and not the ones you don't? I note on the right hand side that you have the 4th most amount of posts on this thread, which if you don't (and perhaps never have/never will) have any intention of buying any Hornby TT, isn't it all a bit pointless? Yes, entirely! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenser Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 42 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said: But the critical thing is whether or not they buy more, is it not. I once placed a pre-order with Heljan for one of the HO 37s they ended up never making, but it was for the sake of owning a "first" and I would have been unlikely to follow it up with further purchases. I wonder how many of Hornby's sales thus far have been made on a similar basis... John To a considerable extent . But - why wouldn't they? Firstly - 1:120 is a commercial scale elsewhere. It's been growing moderately for the last 3 decades. Hornby (as Armold) are already in it, they went into it from nothing, and they've done ok . They are regarded positively in Continental TT There's nothing inherently wrong with the scale that makes it somehow unsaleable. Continental experience is that where TT is established in a market , it is number 2 scale, and N gauge is trailing in the far distance. In the Peco TT120 thread Someone linked to some German-language market share statistics, and the figures were interesting. Not only is TT number two across Eastern Europe, it has a much bigger share of the market than N does in places where N is second scale. HO:TT ratios in Eastern Europe can be around 3:2 - elsewhere HO:N ratios are 2:1 or 3:1 , and in Britain the 4mm/2mm ratio is almost 5:1 I'm not expecting anything like that in Britain : I reckon TT:120 will be doing very well to get to 50% of N here in the medium term. But much of the negative commentary assumes that TT is a scale / product that nobody would dream of buying. That assumption is wrong Secondly - why do you think people would be more likely to keep buying N? I see a steady trickle of postings from people who are in 4mm and say they don't have space for a layout. Almost invariably they then say "tried N but couldn't get on with it / it wasn't for me" or some variation on that. A LOT of people are "bouncing off" British N gauge, for whatever reason. The scale appears to have a very high churn/dropout rate. I don't see people saying they "tried 7mm but couldn't get on with it so I've gone back to 4mm" Also , you will sell a lot more stuff to people starting out in a new scale than to someone who has been in it for years, and is just buying a few items to top up. The bulk of the N gauge market is established modellers who've been in the scale for years. Everyone who buys TT:120 is starting with a clean slate, so can be assumed to be open to buying quite a bit of stuff. That gets you through the first few years. I'm not quite clear what you are driving at with this relentless negativity on all points and all issues. What we know is that so far all items have sold out very quickly, half a dozen TT:120 group have spontaneously come to life on Facebook, there is interest within the modelling community in working in the scale (potentially up to 25% of the hobby are open to it) and people are starting to make things using 3D bodies We have the A4 and Mk1s coming shortly, followed by individually available locos, coaches, followed by P3 Staniers , an 08 and wagons, all in the next 3 months. Lets see how far and how fast this keeps going.. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porfuera Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 28 minutes ago, MartinRS said: I've said it before and I'll say it again. Say after me: Our Simon who art in Margate Hornby be thy name... I guess it is easy to get a cheap laugh but from watching H:AMW it is interesting to see what an enthusiast SK is. You can debate whether or not some of the scenes are re-created for the cameras (like the one IIRC where he 'announced' TT:120 to a couple of his senior staff members) but his enthusiasm for the job and for the models is difficult to fake in my opinion. And that goes for the other staff members (designers, researchers, the sounds guy, marketing, and so on) as well. I with I'd had half that amount of enthusiasm for my job! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradfordbuffer Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said: You have the same effect on me. Unsurprisingly. Both our positions are entirely speculative and neither of us will be proven right or wrong for a couple of years yet. CHILDREN BE NICE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Dunsignalling Posted January 31, 2023 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 31, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Ravenser said: Lets see how far and how fast this keeps going.. My position entirely! FWIW, I mean Hornby TT:120, not our circular discussions about it. Edited January 31, 2023 by Dunsignalling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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