Modeller survey 2023

[Ravenser]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

@Ravenser

I am probably being thick this morning - not an unusual situation - but I am failing to follow your logic unless it is based on an assumption that those with large fleets of locos have a large holding of kit built locos.

 

That may be right but equally could be completely wrong.  We are not all Tony Wright and in my case very few of my locos are kit built - through I will confess that I have a number to be built, that I did not include in my count.  In fact the OH has more kit or scratch built locos (built by me) on her layout than I have on any of mine .

 

From some posts I glean that there are some here who purchased for example large fleets of Lima locos back in the 80s and 90s.  

 

The seemingly endless slow decline of kits and kit manufacturers would suggest that ongoing rtr is going to be by far and away the predominant source of motive power - inside RMWeb and outside. 

 

How does your logic work if a large majority of the locos owned by those who own a lot of locos were to be in fact rtr and not kit built?

 

Your point on collecting is however well made.  There is not and I suggest cannot be a hard line between modellers and collectors.  Again a confession that I hold small collections of models bought for 2 layouts that are now unlikely to be built.  That clearly makes me a collector/modeller.   The nature of our hobby is and has been that models and manufacturers come and go - so buy now or repent in the future.  Or hope perhaps that the item comes up on Ebay 20 years in the future.

 

As far as collecting goes, it may be models bought for a layout in progress but not yet taken out of the box, through models bought for projects that are firmly on the back-burner, through to the person who buys models to put in a display case through ultimately to the out and out collector who has or aspires to have every model meeting a particular set of criteria in original and pristine packaging - preferably unopened.  

 

 

For clarity's sake - 41.6% of modellers own 75% of the locos.

 

But some of that 41.6% may have large fleets of kit built locos which get them up to the 100 loco mark.

 

The folk who buy RTR in such quantities are probably no more than 40% of respondants. They drive the RTR market, while the other 60% of respondants don't really count for much to the manufacturers.

 

So you end up with a hobby based largely on RTR these days , where 60% of the hobby feel they are outliers and "the hobby" isn't really about people like them

 

Add in the heavy focus on the exhibition circuit pre-pandemic , where only a limited sub set of the hobby are heavily involved and the great majority are occasional spectators , and  you have another source of the feeling that the hobby isn't about me, it's really about what they do, over there.

 

(Of course most of the folk heavily involved in the exhibition scene are  modellers less focussed on RTR . So they too assume that the hobby isn't really about them - it's basically about the other guy, over there...)

 

 

[Andy Hayter]

I am sorry but that is all based on guesses as to how many of the large-fleet people have large numbers of kit built locos.  I have no idea but neither I suggest do you.

 

I repeat however.  Kit production is (sadly) on a slow decline.  Kit building is probably a factor behind.  How many DMU/EMU/25KV or DE loco kits are around?  Very few.  2/3 (1500+ of 2300+ responses) of the responses to the survey model a period where these will be a part or all of their motive power. 

The future - whether we like it or not - is rtr or scratch building .

 

It is not where I would want it to be but the numbers seem very indicative.

[Ravenser]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

I am sorry but that is all based on guesses as to how many of the large-fleet people have large numbers of kit built locos.  I have no idea but neither I suggest do you.

 

I repeat however.  Kit production is (sadly) on a slow decline.  Kit building is probably a factor behind.  How many DMU/EMU/25KV or DE loco kits are around?  Very few.  2/3 (1500+ of 2300+ responses) of the responses to the survey model a period where these will be a part or all of their motive power. 

The future - whether we like it or not - is rtr or scratch building .

 

It is not where I would want it to be but the numbers seem very indicative.

 

I think we are at cross-purposes.

 

My point is that the RTR market is going to be almost entirely driven by a limited sub -set of the hobby.

 

1. That sub-set seems to be here, on the forum - it's not the mythical "collectors" who never want to take anything out of the box , nor the legendary "train-set market" . The oft-repeated claim on RTR threads that "of course we aren't the manufacturers' real market" is wrong.

 

2. Nearly everyone now uses RTR to some extent. But 60% of the people in the hobby are indeed an afterthought as far as RTR manufacturers are concerned . It's the high spending 40% that count.

 

Hence the pervasive feeling that "what I do doesn't really count... . What drives the hobby is some other chap, over there"

 

[Andy Hayter]

Well having discussed at cross purposes, I have now done the age related analysis.

 

Based on the age profile presented in the data by @AY Mod, I have calculated when would have been their formative years - taken to be 8-16 years old with 12 yo as the average. This is then converted to be what would be their modelling period of choice if it is their formative years that has influenced their choice of period. 

 

So for example if you were born in 1960, your formative years  should have been between 1968 and 1976.  I have taken 1972 or "1970s" in the survey.

 

Now if the we model what we experienced in our formative years that person should model 1970s.  However we see significant variances from what we expect from the age profile and what we actually model.

 

2023 modellers age variance.docx

 

WE see more layouts than expected in the pregouping and grouping periods and fewer in the transition to 1990s periods than might be expected.  

 

In total at least 23.4% of the layouts declared cannot have been influenced by what the modeller saw in their informative years.   The actual number is almost certainly more because the analysis cannot see if a modeller who should be influenced by the 80s but actually models BR transition if at the same tie there is a modeller who should be influenced by BR transition but actually models the 80s.

 

This 23.4% is significantly down from the 49% seen 5 years ago and two factors account for that. 

1.  The significant fall of modellers in the grouping era and

2.  The increased popularity in the current scene.  This may be driven by the increased availability of models but also by the time period having expanded - so covering a wider age span.

[Bucoops]

When I was growing up, I was interested in the blue diesel era - which was just finishing at the time.

 

Now I'm primarily interested in 1930s, so 40odd years before I was born. My influence? The stories my Grandad told me.

[MrWolf]

I too can remember the blue diesel era, but it just passed me by. Everything seemed to be filthy, closing down or closed down and being demolished. The impressive trains and structures I saw in books had all been swept away, I think that is the main reason I took an interest in the railways of the 1930s.

[Chris116]

I was born in 1954 and have hated BR Blue ever since it was introduced as I blamed it on the loss of the steam engines I loved traveling behind and watching. Now I have the stock for a year 2000 layout which is part mainline and part preservation line. The one thing that the preserved line does not have is Blue diesels.

[GreenGiraffe22]

I'm 31, A combination of growing up with Thomas the tank engine, childhood visits to the Bluebell and an interest in local history / WW2 have led to my 1940sish Sussex based layout. 

 

What I remember on the mainline is long, blocky, uninspiring Connex units going in and out of Brighton Station ... Not my thing, and I think would make the most boring layout to operate. 

Edited February 3, 2023 by GreenGiraffe22

[Keith Addenbrooke]

11 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

In total at least 23.4% of the layouts declared cannot have been influenced by what the modeller saw in their informative years.

Some interesting thoughts.  If I might be forgiven for a personal anecdote, last year I listed things from my informative years in the 1970s / 1980s that influence my current modelling interests - there were six:

 

My Dad’s American HO modelling and his magazine subscriptions were three of them:

• Model Railroader magazine and Kalmbach Publications
• Railway Modeller magazine
• Continental Modeller magazine

The railways around me gave the other three, but like this (we holidayed in Devon or North Wales):

• GW preserved lines (eg: The Dart Valley Railway / South Devon Railway)
• Welsh Narrow Gauge Railways
• BR blue diesels and WCML electrics

I should have included a seventh influence:

• The layouts I saw at exhibitions, which we went to regularly with a Dart Valley Railway Association stand

What am I modelling today?  American HO and Continental / Freelance Narrow Gauge, with plans for a GW branch line using Peco’s new TT:120 building kits.  I’m a member of the 009 Society.

 

So my experience does support the view that formative or informative years can be important, but the everyday railways around me were not the exciting part - it was holiday trips on heritage railways, monthly meetings of the Dart Valley Railway Association, weekend trips to exhibitions, and the monthly arrival of the latest magazines (especially those from America).

 

As an aside to finish, I don’t own many locomotives, but of those that I do, a couple are simple 009 kits, one was a birthday gift given to me as part of a train pack, and all the rest are second hand r-t-r.  I haven’t bought any new, although r-t-r does dominate my collection too.  It means I do rely on the manufacturers persuading “the other guy” to keep buying, and then to keep selling.  I expect my experiences may be replicated, at least in part, by those of others who responded to the survey too?  Just a thought.  Have a good weekend everybody, Keith.

 

[Tartaruga]

On 27/01/2023 at 20:54, DenysW said:

It is said that whenever people are asked how much they drink/smoke/etc. they lie - on the low side. I personally have gone over to "too much" when the answer isn't "not at all".

 

I suspect the same is true for spending on modelling. The number in the £100-500/year  band when a single tender-loco new (not DCC) is above £200, and European outline is even more, and O-gauge yet more still makes me highly suspicious.

 

But if you are buying secondhand that can get you a lot of locos and rolling stock for a year.

[Jol Wilkinson]

11 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Well having discussed at cross purposes, I have now done the age related analysis.

 

Based on the age profile presented in the data by @AY Mod, I have calculated when would have been their formative years - taken to be 8-16 years old with 12 yo as the average. This is then converted to be what would be their modelling period of choice if it is their formative years that has influenced their choice of period. 

 

So for example if you were born in 1960, your formative years  should have been between 1968 and 1976.  I have taken 1972 or "1970s" in the survey.

 

Now if the we model what we experienced in our formative years that person should model 1970s.  However we see significant variances from what we expect from the age profile and what we actually model.

 

2023 modellers age variance.docx 14.99 kB · 6 downloads

 

WE see more layouts than expected in the pregouping and grouping periods and fewer in the transition to 1990s periods than might be expected.  

 

In total at least 23.4% of the layouts declared cannot have been influenced by what the modeller saw in their informative years.   The actual number is almost certainly more because the analysis cannot see if a modeller who should be influenced by the 80s but actually models BR transition if at the same tie there is a modeller who should be influenced by BR transition but actually models the 80s.

 

This 23.4% is significantly down from the 49% seen 5 years ago and two factors account for that. 

1.  The significant fall of modellers in the grouping era and

2.  The increased popularity in the current scene.  This may be driven by the increased availability of models but also by the time period having expanded - so covering a wider age span.

 

I wonder what a comparison with the interest in pre-grouping modelling 10 - 12 years ago might show.  

 

In the 1980's I became interested in modelling the LNWR, which meant building everything.  The kit suppliers scene was buoyant but nothing RTR. I doubt that over 40% of modellers would actually be modelling pre-group.

 

In the last decade or so RTR model have become available and the amount of interest appears to have increased considerably. So is that because people are genuinely interested in the pre-group period or are they simple attracted to something different, in an attractive livery, etc. I suspect a lot of the latter.

 

Why have the RTR manufacturers produced these models? Has market research shown that this is what people want or is it, as I believe, because the number of "manufacturers" has increased and they are all, looking for new products with which to compete for sales. The research/design process seems to be largely influenced by prototypes that are still in existence i.e. preserved as seen in the Hornby docudrama.

 

So are peoples interests primarily driven by what is available or a period/location/railway they are genuinely interested in.

[Helmdon]

I’m 42, grew up within earshot of the SVR, and volunteered there from the age of 8. I should be GWR to my core. But now I live in the middle of nowhere and the GC mainline is in sight of my windows (well the remains are) so I model the GC in the 50s.

[Andy Hayter]

@Jol Wilkinson

 

The 2014 data shows 192 pre-grouping layouts compared with 214 now.  However the sample size in 2014 was 27% bigger.  Andy decided to shut this years survey with 1000 responses (AFAICS), whereas from memory the 2014 ran for about 4 weeks.  No criticism of Andy.  As he stated the new entries he was a getting was not changing the trends and 1000 was a valid sample.  

 

So broad brush, interest in pre-grouping that results in a pre-grouping layout has gone up by around 30%

 

Has that increase been triggered by the increase in rtr?  I don't see how it can be any other way.

 

I built my first pre-grouping coaches some short time after RM published articles and drawings of the London extension stock in the early to mid 80s.  At the time I bought white metal GCR Fox bogies to go under the bodies.  Today I can find Fox bogies available but nothing specifically GCR.

At the time I could get kits for GCR Sam Fay, Jersey Lily Atlantic and Pollit 4-4-0 locos to suit the coaches.  Today - nada.   I regret not getting any of those at the time but, like many modellers today, finances at the time did not allow.  

So my own project largely stalled until the last decade.  

Edited February 3, 2023 by Andy Hayter

[BMacdermott]

Hello everyone

 

Although the results from The Wishlist Poll 2013 cannot be directly compared with the RMweb Survey of 2023, I have attached a PDF anyway. Although many will say instantly that the 'the main steam era' has gone down, I would guard against that interpretation.

 

I know it might sound like I am 'juggling figures', but if you add The Poll figures for 1948-1956 and 1957-1968 you get: 26% + 40% = 66%.

 

If you take the Survey figures for Post-Nationalisation Steam with Transition Steam/Diesel, you get: 31% + 36% = 67%.

 

All depends where a line is drawn between the latter two.

 

It looks to me as though the market has increased all round - perhaps because we have more makers with broader ranges now?

 

Brian

Era Comparisons.pdf

[LimboBrit]

I'm gobsmacked to see that more than 40% of respondents own 50+ locomotives. I'm not sure though that this statistic is going to be useful when my wife asks me what was in the parcel that just arrived. What I am sure about is that I have a long way to go to catch up.

[Andy Hayter]

Thank you for that analysis Brian ( @BMacdermott).

 

To do an in depth analysis of the results, you (and when I say you I don't mean you personally) should also look to see how many of the models from the 2013 wish list have been made - and therefore purchased and so struck off the wishes of the modelling community.   To explain, in the extreme, suppose every single steam locomotive of the period had been made between 2013 and 2022.  There would then be no steam locomotives in the 2022 survey.  This most certainly not suggest a move away from steam, but rather a saturation of the market.  Of course that is not the reality and I am not suggesting your analysis is flawed because of that, but I do suggest that it adds weight to your view.  

 

 

Regarding having a lot of locomotives @LimboBrit; remember that a number here will be counting the result of a lifetime of purchases.  If just 1 is bought each year from say age 20 to their three score and ten, then they reach the magic 50.

[BMacdermott]

Thanks Andy - I'll have a look at that.

 

Brian

[Legend]

48 minutes ago, LimboBrit said:

I'm gobsmacked to see that more than 40% of respondents own 50+ locomotives. I'm not sure though that this statistic is going to be useful when my wife asks me what was in the parcel that just arrived. What I am sure about is that I have a long way to go to catch up.

 

I have 100 + but remember I started aged 4 and I'm now approaching retirement , so although large it has been built up over 55 years!  From Tri-ang through Wrenn, Hornby, Mainline, Airfix , Lima, Bachmann, Dapol, Hattons, Accurascale  I suspect there will be a few on here in a similar position . 

[younGGuns7]

1 hour ago, BMacdermott said:

Hello everyone

 

Although the results from The Wishlist Poll 2013 cannot be directly compared with the RMweb Survey of 2023, I have attached a PDF anyway. Although many will say instantly that the 'the main steam era' has gone down, I would guard against that interpretation.

 

I know it might sound like I am 'juggling figures', but if you add The Poll figures for 1948-1956 and 1957-1968 you get: 26% + 40% = 66%.

 

If you take the Survey figures for Post-Nationalisation Steam with Transition Steam/Diesel, you get: 31% + 36% = 67%.

 

All depends where a line is drawn between the latter two.

 

It looks to me as though the market has increased all round - perhaps because we have more makers with broader ranges now?

 

Brian

Era Comparisons.pdf 58.29 kB · 6 downloads

Perhaps the only way to know is if we split the transitional period into Steam Only/Steam and Diesel or Diesel only, I ticked that box as it fitted by mine is totally pre tops diesel

[BMacdermott]

Hello younGGuns7

 

There is no pragmatic way to split eras up other than going to the ultimate extreme of listing every single individual day between eighteen-hundred-and-whenever and the date that a survey goes live.

 

But then you get the split of modellers who might say: I collect from Date A to Date B; but model a layout from Date C to Date D; etc etc.

 

And you'd still have someone say: Your cut-off date was 31 January 2023; my layout is set at Sometown on 3 February. 🙂

 

Brian

Edited February 3, 2023 by BMacdermott
Spelling

[younGGuns7]

57 minutes ago, BMacdermott said:

Hello younGGuns7

 

There is no pragmatic way to split eras up other than going to the ultimate extreme of listing every single individual day between eighteen-hundred-and-whenever and the date that a survey goes live.

 

But then you get the spilt of modellers who might say: I collect from Date A to Date B; but model a layout from Date C to Date D; etc etc.

 

And you'd still have someone say: Your cut-off date was 31 January 2023; my layout is set at Sometown on 3 February. 🙂

 

Brian

Hi Brian, I appreciate all that and I wasn’t trying to take away anything from the survey etc, it was just a thought regarding steam/diesel. TBH it was a good sharp look at things and I have enjoyed seeing all the reaction even if some are getting a little deep 🤦‍♂️

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, younGGuns7 said:

Perhaps the only way to know is if we split the transitional period into Steam Only/Steam and Diesel or Diesel only, I ticked that box as it fitted by mine is totally pre tops diesel

 

In support of Brian, and as I have already said, you can cut the cake (the totality of the results ) or pie (since a number of the results are shown as pie charts), in as many ways as you want.  After a point, the more and more you cut it into smaller and smaller slices, the more and more they become personal to you and the more and more difficult it becomes to analyse the results.   It can also become more and more difficult for the participants to answer the question.

 

To take your example:  I model diesel only period but have steam specials (I don't but you get the point).

 

We all want the cake/pie cut to match our own special circumstances. I ask myself why there is no question about pre-nationalisation French railways (which I do model).  I think I know the answer however - 4/5ths of not many respondents - to be polite.

 

What is worse is that having got the results it is easy to pose the question, why didn't they ask...........?  We all would like to see more information.  (well those of us who analyse the results at least).

 

Fact is, we have what we have. 

And thank you to Andy for that. 

[BMacdermott]

18 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

To do an in depth analysis of the results, you (and when I say you I don't mean you personally) should also look to see how many of the models from the 2013 wish list have been made - and therefore purchased and so struck off the wishes of the modelling community.   

 

Hello Andy

 

List of locos, DMUs and EMUs made and/or announced attached. They are in no particular order.

 

Hope that helps.

 

Brian

Locos, DMUs and EMUs Made or Announced Since 2013 Poll.pdf

[Phatbob]

4 hours ago, BMacdermott said:

 

Hello Andy

 

List of locos, DMUs and EMUs made and/or announced attached. They are in no particular order.

 

Hope that helps.

 

Brian

Locos, DMUs and EMUs Made or Announced Since 2013 Poll.pdf 71.08 kB · 10 downloads

Who has announced a class 74?  Have I missed something or is it a typo?

 

[BMacdermott]

Hello Phatbob

 

I will have to check with The 00 Poll Team but my guess is that DJ Models announced this around the time of the Class 71 and we took it out in good faith.

 

We certainly haven't listed it since then and I don't recall any requests either.

 

Back soon.

 

Brian (on behalf of The 00 Poll Team)