Accentuate the negative - who's trying to kill the hobby?

[Michael Hodgson]

On 18/01/2024 at 07:34, BachelorBoy said:

 

True. But they don't buy cameras from camera shops :-)

 

No.  They buy mobile phones online and from telecoms companies.

[cmtrain]

Ooo another unofficial post coming up (I'm responsible for Rails of Sheffield's ecommerce).

 

Since I started at Rails 5 years ago and first experienced the model Railway hobby I have seen the industry grow, I have seen new manufacturers come to the industry and I visited shows where I was amazed by the number of people I saw.

 

While I'm not a Model Railway hobbyist I do like to roll dice and push toy soldiers around a table and did witness our yearly local wargames show close. This was not due to lack of demand for the hobby but more a lack of transition from the old guard of the local wargames club for whom it was an increasing hassle to put the show on to the younger members that could carry the show on and take it forward. Now several years later I'm knee deep in toy soldiers and my wife is getting increasingly annoyed... that industry is stronger than ever and has similar issues with 3d printing and technology.

 

I see both recent sad news events as being caused by unfortunate 'local' factors specific to them rather than industry wide issues.

 

Enjoy your hobby.

 

Regards Chris

[maico]

On 17/01/2024 at 22:56, Re6/6 said:

 

 

 

That middle chap is how I imagine AY Mod dresses....

[MattR]

On 18/01/2024 at 04:47, jjb1970 said:

3D printing is interesting as it introduces a new skill set but it does not remove the need to invest time and effort in learning how to do things and the work needed to produce a model. At one time there was an idea that we'd hit a key and a model would appear out of the ether. Putting aside all of the work needed to develop the files, even once we have the printed parts we have arrived at something analogous to a kit needing assembly, finishing, painting etc.

 

Exactly!

 

Building a Wills signal box kit, for instance, would be seen as "proper modelling". I couldn't find a kit that matched the signal box I wanted to build, so I used TinkerCAD to create one based off my references. Took about a week. Then I 3D printed out all the parts (including several test prints), essentially a kit that now requires cleanup, paint and assembly. So it's still "proper modelling" except now I'm the kit designer and producer on top of the kit builder.

 

We got the 3D printer for Christmas and I had never done printing before. I've only been learning how to use TinkerCAD since the day after Christmas.

 

 

Edited January 19 by MattR

[Pacific231G]

15 hours ago, Colin_McLeod said:

If you open the picture you can clearly see stars in a night sky.  To be able to take such pictures with a phone is the marvel that @adb968008 appears to be referring to.

I was amazed to get a fairly good image of the ring around the moon a few weeks ago with my iPhone. (Especially in suburban West London which is the exact opposite of a dark sky site.  but then took my "proper" camera out into the garden with a tripod and did multiple shots with umpteen different exposures (mostly to get a composite image with the rings clearly visible and the moon iself not burnt out) It actially did quite well in the camera club's next digital image competition so it is horses for courses.

Interestingly though, when it comes to photographing model railways I almost invariably get better results with my phone (I have  a tripod mount for it) than with my big camera. There are technical reasons for that to do with sensor size and focal length (It can't possibly be that the computer in my phone is also better at phortography than me!) . 

[D9020 Nimbus]

On 18/01/2024 at 11:10, AY Mod said:

 

I would contest that; most of those point and shoot buyers would gone to Currys/Argos etc rather than a camera shop (maybe bar Jessops). Camera shops would have been impacted more by discounted internet sales in the SLR market.

Perhaps, but I was thinking that the end of a need for developing and printing photographs that was the biggest factor. BITD, people didn't buy new cameras very often — there was no equivalent of the megapixel race then — but there was a need for D&P on a regular basis. Round about the turn of the millennium, every Monday lunchtime in summer there would be a queue out of the door at Jessops branch in Newcastle. That had disappeared and the branch closed when Jessops went into administration and never reopened. The Jacobs branch has closed only a couple of months earlier; the last remaining independent closed within days of Jessops. Funnily enough Jessops and Jacob’s were directly opposite one another and the independent was pretty close too.

[MartinRS]

4 hours ago, cmtrain said:

Ooo another unofficial post coming up (I'm responsible for Rails of Sheffield's ecommerce).

 

Since I started at Rails 5 years ago and first experienced the model Railway hobby I have seen the industry grow, I have seen new manufacturers come to the industry and I visited shows where I was amazed by the number of people I saw.

 

While I'm not a Model Railway hobbyist I do like to roll dice and push toy soldiers around a table and did witness our yearly local wargames show close. This was not due to lack of demand for the hobby but more a lack of transition from the old guard of the local wargames club for whom it was an increasing hassle to put the show on to the younger members that could carry the show on and take it forward. Now several years later I'm knee deep in toy soldiers and my wife is getting increasingly annoyed... that industry is stronger than ever and has similar issues with 3d printing and technology.

 

I see both recent sad news events as being caused by unfortunate 'local' factors specific to them rather than industry wide issues.

 

Enjoy your hobby.

 

Regards Chris

Playing with toy soldiers at your age? Grow up and buy a train set! Just ask if you want me to recommend a nearby model shop. ; )

[Captain Kernow]

13 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

On night photography, smart phones and computational photography has transformed things. In film days night shots were quite exotic and always pretty popular as to get a decent shot needed a tripod, timed exposure, time and a bit of judgement. These are shots taken with my phone when we went back to Carlisle at New Year, the pics are just snap shots and I make no claim to them being anything more than snaps as I visited the station to see if anything was happening one night. However, they are all hand held with no input from me beyond selecting night mode. I didn't even brace or find something to lean against, they actually were just hand held. We tend to take phones for granted, but if we think back to old film days it's amazing just what their cameras can do.

 

 

 

Lovely photos but the vegetation growth on the track is yet another example of how lack of funding is causing the infrastructure in our major stations to look like a disgrace.

 

[Ravenser]

For the avoidance of doubt, as the lawyers say, I’m convinced there are more people in the hobby now than five years ago. The TV programmes before the pandemic led to people taking up the hobby, and quite a lot of folk became active railway modellers during the pandemic. There’s been gloomy speculation that the last 18 months may have burnt them off, but the reports that some clubs are recruiting strongly shows they are still there and getting more involved in the hobby. A whole new commercial scale ought to be a big positive – reportedly it’s selling well, and seemingly not to existing modellers. I’m more confident about the long term survival of the hobby than I’d have been 5-6 years ago.

 

The state of the organised hobby – things like clubs, societies, the exhibition circuit, the trade, magazines and social media, even the manufacturers, what you might call the “structure” of the hobby, is a different thing. Media seem to be doing well, but some things, especially the exhibition circuit, have taken something of a battering recently. Hattons‘ closure is desperately bad for the large number of people employed in the business, in an area that’s been a byword for high unemployment and economic depression throughout my lifetime. But I can see at least 3 major factors which seem to be unique to Hattons, so I don’t really think it says anything about the RTR market in general. If you want to be a big boxshifter, being cut off from supplies of the second biggest brand and having supplies of the biggest limited is a pretty fatal obstacle.

 

Losing Warley is a different matter. It isn’t an isolated example as the demise of Imrex was in its day. Feb 2024 RM lists 25 shows and 2 open days, over 5 ½ columns and 6 weeks. In Feb 2019 it listed 45 exhibitions and 5 open days over 10 columns. In my area at least, most exhibitions seem to be rather smaller than they were, so this is a contraction of around 50%. I thought the circuit was over extended and some pruning and regrowth would be a good thing – but this goes far beyond that, and there are only limited signs of regrowth two years into “normality”. Perhaps my patch is badly affected, but my nearest 2 day show is now over 50 miles away.

Nevertheless I think much of the exhibition discussion is back to front. The common view is that exhibitions exist to fund the clubs, who would not survive without the profits they make .

Here’s Pacific231G in the Warley thread:

Quote

 part of the problem is the over-reliance many clubs have on their annual show to fund their activities rather than it being a showcase for the hobby or to attract new members … This dependence on exhibitions for a club's own running costs doesn't seem to apply in other countries…If the purpose of a show is simply to attract enough visitors to turn a profit for the club then there are far less opportunities to share interests with and socialise with fellow modellers

 

The pandemic has proved this isn’t true. If clubs needed a tidy profit from a show to survive, then clubs would have been folding left, right and centre over the last 4 years. As far as I’m aware hardly any have gone under. In the South East I’ve heard a rule of thumb is that the overall profit is roughly equivalent to the profit on catering.

The result is that lots of clubs have found they can downsize the show radically and still make almost the same surplus.

 

I first heard this from a Colchester club member when they lost the venue for their well-regarded 2 day show. A 1 day show in a much smaller venue, he said, would generate almost as much money with a lot less work. That show then dwindled away – the club is still going but they no longer hold exhibitions.

 

Typeapproval tells a similar tale of Ipswich on p2 of this thread:

Quote

For many years the "Ipswich Model Railway Show" was among the biggest. ….. HOWEVER! when the rent for the leisure centre that had been the venue for some while was hugely raised, it became unaffordable! 

IRMA have not held a large exhibition for nearly 20 years to the best of my knowledge. But they are still going, and after a 5 year hiatus are planning a small local show in November

 

And PaulRhB says something similar of Salisbury in the Warley thread:

Quote

Post Covid losing the big venue meant a scaled down show but pleasingly a similar profit as the overheads were far less and with less layouts less risk. 

So clubs can easily downsize the show and retreat into a comfort zone. And they don’t generally go back into the bigtime

 

But layouts like Baojaio and Copenhagen Fields are not going to small one day shows in village halls. Larger layouts need the larger 2 day shows which seem to be falling by the wayside. Societies won’t be going to such shows either – and in my experience a society’s membership footprint is largely determined by the shows it attends. The two main activities of 21st century clubs are putting on an exhibition and building club exhibition layouts to take to others’ shows. If Middlemarch MRC downsize their show to 6 layouts in a village hall, they are relying on Gricerville MRC, Much Binding in the Marsh MRS and Madderport Modellers continuing to organise large shows for Middlemarch’s layouts to go to. If Gricerville, Much Binding and Madderport also downsize – everybody’s layout groups are all stuffed. So are all the people who build private exhibition layouts

 

I see no sign exhibitions are disappearing because clubs are dying. But there’s a long term risk that clubs could start to wither if the exhibition circuit shrivels up. If there’s no point building exhibition layouts because there’s nowhere much to exhibit them – what’s the point of being in the club? Many modellers join clubs precisely to get access to a much bigger layout than they could build at home, run their stock on it and go out on the circuit. If the club can’t provide the layout some of them will already drift off. If exhibition layouts become an endangered breed, some may be lost to the hobby.

 

I think the YouTube debate is also back to front. Shows are not disappearing because the gate is ebbing away and the numbers no longer add up (which is what killed IMREX) .  Shows are disappearing because clubs are no longer prepared to put them on. There are plenty of punters: some shows like Railex and Bognor are crowded – as you might expect if the hobby has grown but the number of shows has halved.  To make an exhibition video, you first need an exhibition. If there are hardly any decent-sized shows, then the YouTubers will have nothing to video ..

 

I take PMP’s point that shows need not be organised by clubs – they could be organised by groups of friends. York is the classic example. Or by a federation of clubs like AMRSS and Model Rail Scotland. Or by a preserved railway, who own their venue. Or by a magazine or commercial organisation. Or a society. Unfortunately, for pretty well every “business model” I can think of a 2 day show organised that way that’s recently folded…

 

At the least, we need to stop griping about shows being organised by someone other than a club. It isn’t taking the bread out of clubs’ mouths, and in the present climate we need to be grateful for anyone who will organise a 2 day show

[BachelorBoy]

14 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

A rather more positive title here: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12974117/amp/Hornby-shares-steam-ahead-sales-new-customer-numbers-rise.html

 

This seems rather promising....

Edited January 20 by BachelorBoy
spacing

[Morgenergy]

Many views some have regarding this hobby are either outdated, offensive or just downright false. Typically within niche circles and influencers, they're nothing that we can't fix or change within a timely manner.

 

Nearly 5 years ago I began giving my time and effort to my local shop - The Locoshed, owned by Jim of Model Fair fame - in Manchester. I was only 19 when I initially asked if he needed help with things: I wouldn't have bothered if I wasn't that interested in the hobby, or if I thought things were on their way out. The same few weirdos online had the same idea that the hobby was dying back then, and have since it's boom in the 60's.

 

Despite rising costs, never before has so much stuff been available. Now, so many are involved and so many are getting on board as folks young and old realise their need for a creative hobby with something you can actually hold and touch and make. Things are booming, yet vocally dominated by honest to God cranks who feel a need to dictate their own negative narrative of things. Some of them come into our shop and are members of local clubs... they're so passionate to uphold the hobby that... they don't spend anything!

 

Shops and companies have gone... but look at how many have replaced them. Things are doing well, it's just a rough world right now.

 

There's an idea that the new generation supposedly doesn't exist. This is where I get rather miffed off because we're right here and always have been. I'm 25 now and supposedly one of those lippy youths who don't lift their head up from their phone, who would rather spend money on an Xbox, stay in bed... and yet, I'm here, with piles of kits and etches on my desk, smashing away at my keyboard on RMWeb. Warley's comment about younger modellers ''failing to materialise'' REALLY irked me, even moreso as it's a opinion shared by many other societies and unaware individuals. Youngsters exist in the hobby, and these groups should be asking themselves ''Why won't the young come to us?'' rather than wonder where we are in the first place.

 

I don't think the naysayers know that folks have numerous hobbies, especially these days with how rough the world is... we need distractions, not all attention is gonna be on the trains. I started a new playthrough of a Resident Evil title yesterday... then primed and airbrushed a bunch of wagons I recently built, before working on my digital art commissions. Tomorrow, I might even do some woodwork, whilst I wait for transfers to arrive from Railtec! SHOCK, HORROR.

 

We should embrace change and affordability, as well as people who are quite simply different. These trains really can bring people together, it's amazing to see. What's somehow more amazing is how many would, seemingly, rather keep it selfishly within their own ignorant idea. Typically it regards things being better back in't day... stuff like that.

 

This hobby has kept me going for years now.. and I mean that literally: mental health often relies on fettling and creating. It also relies on friends.. friends I wouldn't have if not for modelling. This passion has become a job, a life. Why folks would want to bet on it's downfall is beyond me.. If this hobby appears to be dying to you, perhaps do your best to keep it alive or better yet, find a new hobby and take the attitudes with you.

 

So far, I've seen little effort so far from those so very inclined things are all doom and gloom, and that people aren't getting on board... meme relevant.

[Chris M]

I don't see why the finish of the Warley NEC show is seen as pointing towards doom and gloom for the hobby. We should instead celebrate the fact that a bunch of unpaid amateurs from a local club were able to run such a big event for 30 years. That was an amazing run. For 30 years the club was able to find the right members with the right skills, knowledge, etc to put on an exhibition with over 250 stands at a venue that is set up for big trade organised shows. It went very well every year and always made a positive return for the club. That's not a failure, that's a whopping success!

[PaulRhB]

1 hour ago, Morgenergy said:

don't think the naysayers know that folks have numerous hobbies, especially these days with how rough the world is... we need distractions, not all attention is gonna be on the trains.

Yep they tend to be the ones who’ve not tried and wouldn’t encourage them if they turn up and ask ;)

Don’t worry there are plenty of layout exhibitors encouraging the youngsters, only last weekend we were chatting to the kids watching a friends layout and answering questions and requests to run certain trains. One kid on Dad’s shoulders didn’t want to talk but a big grin and two thumbs up made us smile. 
On my crew list I’ve got two in their 20’s, one who got invited to have a go after meeting at a show and having a chat. I will admit the other one has been operating my layouts since he was 4 as he was more inclined to listen to me than his Dad’s instructions 😆 Mind you he can still cause chaos as he’s a shunterholic! 
I also enjoyed passing on a favour done for me 40 years ago by a friend of my Dad. Trevor painted a loco for nothing that Dad had built for me. He always had encouraging words and I’m glad to say we have stayed friends over the years. A few years back a mate at work wanted to do a GWR HST for his son and they couldn’t afford the £400+ for a Hornby one do we acquired Lima stock and I repainted it, passing on the favour, for a total just over £100 for a six car train. Result one very happy lad who takes great care with his trains and understands value too. When I next bumped into Trevor I told him I’d been happy to pass on that favour which made his day too. 
If everyone just chills out and chats you can enjoy the hobby and draw in the ‘youngsters’ and they are really good at lugging the heavy heaps you build to shows too 😉 Last year I had an op that banned me from lifting for a bit, the crew half of which were in their 20-30’s did it all for me and I’m an ‘oldy’ only just in my 50’s so there are big advantages to encouraging younger helpers too. I don’t think that is uncommon seeing the age range behind layouts at Ally Pally and Warley last year where several had a good spread of ages. 
 

Sometimes doing nothing can be rather nice too ;) 

 

[Chris M]

I never really thought about it before but my "A" team of four operators includes two under 30 and two "old gits" who are rapidly approaching 70. Works so well that I hadn't even noticed.

[Chris M]

On 16/01/2024 at 09:13, queensquare said:

Well I’ve just rewatched the piece on BBC breakfast and it seemed to me the focus was on naff puns and the fact that Market Deeping suffered from dreadful vandalism a few years ago. 
Twice the reporter eulogised about the Dawlish layout with its cliffs, waves etc yet all you ever actually got to see was the fiddle yard!

The club chairman came across very well but otherwise a pretty shallow bit of reporting.

 

Jerry

They are just copying me!

[Hal Nail]

To be honest I haven't read all of this but I would be rather surprised if anyone on either side of these arguments will be swayed by anything anyone else says, and both will find the opposing view equally irritating!

 

If you are risk averse and negative then people glossing over events provokes a reaction and similarly if you are positive and tend to shut out bad news you react to any suggestion of doom.

 

I rather thought, if nothing else, the contrasting initial reactions to Covid should have taught us that!

[Oldddudders]

11 minutes ago, Hal Nail said:

To be honest I haven't read all of this but I would be rather surprised if anyone on either side of these arguments will be swayed by anything anyone else says, and both will find the opposing view equally irritating!

I would hope that the multiple contributions testifying to good numbers of young modellers coming on board would help convince some that the hobby has a real future. I cannot see that evidence as in any way irritating. 

[SM42]

We have quite a healthy junior section. They make up around 12%  of our membership. Doesn't sound much, but when you add in the over 16s  and under 40s it pushes up to nearer 20%. 

 

The junuors are building a layout, overseen by one of our older members and its going well. With good levels of engagement. 

 

As for shows, we stopped doing ours some time back and as a result our club does more modelling, the committee is less stressed ( less meetings,) we have more members than ever and the bank balance hasn't suffered. 

 

Surviving the pandemic would have been tough if not for a significant injection of cash from the local authority and I'm sure most other clubs in the country had the same help.

It paid our rent and got us through.

 

We were down on attendees once it all opened up ( we lost unfortunately a few members to God's model railway club and there was a more cautious approach to mixing from others) , but as time went on the numbers grew slowly as confidence returned. 

 

Club nights have a healthy turnout, getting in the car park can be a challenge some nights, layouts are being built and exhibited. 

 

Warley and Hattons were a shock, but getting out while the going is good but the writing is on the wall is better than ignoring the warning signs. 

 

Neither I see as the end of the hobby, just unfortunate bumps in the road. 

 

Yes there may be less shows now, but look at the ad pages in any model magazine and tell me no-one is modelling anymore. 

 

Andy

Edited January 21 by SM42

[Oldddudders]

1 hour ago, SM42 said:

Yes there may be less shows now, but look at the ad pages in any model magazine and tell me no-one is modelling anymore. 

And this at a time when printed media worldwide is on the backfoot. 

[BlackFivesMatter]

Talking about the ad pages in modelling magazines, I'm not seeing hugely discounted models which would be the case if the manufacturers or retailers had misread the market or over produced. This rather puts paid to the "nothing for me in the releases" thankfully. 

 

 

[Gilbert]

34 minutes ago, BlackFivesMatter said:

Talking about the ad pages in modelling magazines, I'm not seeing hugely discounted models which would be the case if the manufacturers or retailers had misread the market or over produced. This rather puts paid to the "nothing for me in the releases" thankfully. 

 

 

I'm getting one or two emails offering chunky savings on certain models - it seems to be working.

https://modelrailwaysdirect.co.uk/special-offers/special-offers-in-oo-scale.html?p=2

 

[The Evil Bus Driver]

On 19/01/2024 at 14:59, maico said:

 

That middle chap is how I imagine AY Mod dresses....

Not the Columbo style filthy flashers mac surely! 

 

The end really must be nigh...

[maico]

3 hours ago, The Evil Bus Driver said:

Not the Columbo style filthy flashers mac surely! 

 

The end really must be nigh...

 

When I was a small boy in the early 70s we used to see lunatics like this walking up and down Oxford street with placards helpfully informing us we had no future...

[CKPR]

22 hours ago, maico said:

 

When I was a small boy in the early 70s we used to see lunatics like this walking up and down Oxford street with placards helpfully informing us we had no future...

...in Englands dreaming !

[Pacific231G]

On 19/01/2024 at 23:57, Ravenser said:

I think much of the exhibition discussion is back to front. The common view is that exhibitions exist to fund the clubs, who would not survive without the profits they make .

Here’s Pacific231G in the Warley thread:

part of the problem is the over-reliance many clubs have on their annual show to fund their activities rather than it being a showcase for the hobby or to attract new members … This dependence on exhibitions for a club's own running costs doesn't seem to apply in other countries…If the purpose of a show is simply to attract enough visitors to turn a profit for the club then there are far less opportunities to share interests with and socialise with fellow modellers

The pandemic has proved this isn’t true. If clubs needed a tidy profit from a show to survive, then clubs would have been folding left, right and centre over the last 4 years. As far as I’m aware hardly any have gone under.

The result is that lots of clubs have found they can downsize the show radically and still make almost the same surplus.

But is the downsized show helping to inspire fellow modellers and create interest in others? Possibly it is in which case that's fine.  

The problem I was referring to in that post wasn't that clubs need exhibitions to survive, they shouldn't, but rather that they may think they do and seeing their annual exhibition primarily as a fund raiser was getting in the way of what I think should be its primary function, which is to share the hobby with others both existing and potential (that includes the general public!)  It's not really an either/or but more a matter of emphasis.  

I agree with others that the hobby is probably healthier now than it's been for quite some time but the emphasis may be changing- as it often does. Modelmaking has after all been a human fascination forever and railways do hold their own fascination. 

 

As a side note: I was always a bit doubtful about the sign at one exhibition which had two halls with the words "More Trains" . Not "More layouts" so giving the impression that the interest in an exhibtion is just seeing trains running (so trains must always be running) and not appreciating the art and craft of creating a layout.