The Shape of Things To Come

[Ron Ron Ron]

??¦.. What I'm curious about is the practicality of just doing one batch, then moving on to something else before rather than after sales drop off??¦.

Surely a batch is completed before any models are dispatched from China, so sales won??™t have started, let alone dropped off?

However, if you mean putting the new model in the catalogue for just one year and then not doing it again for a while, then I think that already happens with quite a few items, although two years generally seems to be the minimum.

 

I would have thought the costing is worked out to expect a return within the first year or so. After all, nobody is going to produce quantities that cannot provide a return on investment, before taking that product off the shelf.

 

???

 

??¦.While the tooling cost is indeed a significant element, its all bankable in that they can always re-use it for a subsequent batch at a later date??¦.

???Bankable??? only in the sense that it??™s possible more money could be made if later batches are produced and development costs have been fully written down.

 

Definitely not ???Bankable??? if a return hasn??™t already been made on the first run. That would be classed as a loss, along with an aspiration (not guarantee) that losses may be clawed back at some future indeterminate date. Not exactly a sound business model.

 

 

 

??¦ I wonder how significant the staff training element might be; with more and more detail being added it must take a bit of time to train those nimble fingers to put all the bits in the right place.

That??™s a good point, but realistically, these models must be knocked out in a fairly short time once they go into production.

I do wonder how much training is involved considering a particular model is only in production for a matter of hours, or at the most a few days.

 

I??™ve no idea how long it takes for a typical production run to last, but as the factories are turning out thousands of items for different companies each year, for some models we must be talking about a maximum of a few of days, if not shorter (e.g. a day or just a few hours) to complete a whole batch.

50,000 Pendolino sets might be a bit different though.

 

.

 

[OFFTHE RAILS]

I was intrigued by 34theletterbetweenB&D's observation that Heljan's policy was to produce models of the least satisfactory diesels.

Perhaps, if / when Heljan start to make models of steam locos they might consider:

1] The Thompson A2/1 A2/2 A2/3 Pacifics - if framed like the originals they will easily bend around radius 1 curves

2] The LNWR Claughton 4-6-0

3] The LMS Fowler "Austin" 7F 0-8-0

4] The LMS Fowler and Stanier 3P 2-6-2 tanks

5] The Barry/GWR Rebuilt Auld 0-6-4 tanks

6] The GWR 'Kruger' 4-6-0 and 2-6-0s

7] The LSWR Drummond 4-6-0s

8] The CR/LMS Pickersgill 3 cylinder 4-6-0

9] The L&Y 1908 Hughes 4-6-0s

10]The L&Y Hoy 2-6-2 tanks

I'm sure there are more candidates !

Ian

[Ravenser]

I was intrigued by 34theletterbetweenB&D's observation that Heljan's policy was to produce models of the least satisfactory diesels.

Perhaps, if / when Heljan start to make models of steam locos they might consider:

1] The Thompson A2/1 A2/2 A2/3 Pacifics - if framed like the originals they will easily bend around radius 1 curves

2] The LNWR Claughton 4-6-0

3] The LMS Fowler "Austin" 7F 0-8-0

4] The LMS Fowler and Stanier 3P 2-6-2 tanks

5] The Barry/GWR Rebuilt Auld 0-6-4 tanks

6] The GWR 'Kruger' 4-6-0 and 2-6-0s

7] The LSWR Drummond 4-6-0s

8] The CR/LMS Pickersgill 3 cylinder 4-6-0

9] The L&Y 1908 Hughes 4-6-0s

10]The L&Y Hoy 2-6-2 tanks

I'm sure there are more candidates !

Ian

 

The varieties of Webb Compounds should keep them going for several years

[Dick Turpin]

I don??™t know about least satisfactory, but Heljan??™s formula for recent diesel locomotive releases does seem to be along the lines of impressive looks but never quite made it.

 

On this basis I would recommend that they enter the steam market with??¦the Great Eastern Decapod!

 

James Raven.

[Ravenser]

I don??™t know about least satisfactory, but Heljan??™s formula for recent diesel locomotive releases does seem to be along the lines of impressive looks but never quite made it.

 

On this basis I would recommend that they enter the steam market with??¦the Great Eastern Decapod!

 

James Raven.

 

We've already seen the Leader done - which manages to combine the service life and range of the Decapod with the reliability of the NBL diesels

[coachmann]

I wonder how significant the staff training element might be; with more and more detail being added it must take a bit of time to train those nimble fingers to put all the bits in the right place.

That statement is pretty significant. I saw a program on TV some years ago where the Japanese firms moving their manufacturing bases to Europe and the UK were asked about this very point.? 

 

The response pertained to timescales for getting a new item into full production on a production line. I cannot remember the 'scores' for the various European countries but I do remember the Welsh people got a new item in production speedily. The English came bottom, the reason given being that once they had got used to assembling a model they disliked change! It took days rather than hours to get things into full production.? 

 

Maybe the Chinese workers pick things up quickly.

 

 

[The Stationmaster]

That statement is pretty significant. I saw a program on TV some years ago where the Japanese firms moving their manufacturing bases to Europe and the UK were asked about this very point.? 

 

The response pertained to timescales for getting a new item into full production on a production line. I cannot remember the 'scores' for the various European countries but I do remember the Welsh people got a new item in production speedily. The English came bottom, the reason given being that once they had got used to assembling a model they disliked change! It took days rather than hours to get things into full production.? 

 

Maybe the Chinese workers pick things up quickly.

 

 

I think the Chinese (and other Far Eastern) brains work differently from ours - possibly because of the way they are educated or maybe for some other reason. But whatever it is I can tell you that it is quite an interesting experience to work with Chinese people, especially if they get anywhere near a computer

[D6975]

When I predicted that a 70 wouldn't be long coming, I didn't expect it to be announced quite so soon. Before the real ones have entered service, just like the Hornby 58 all those years ago.

As someone else has pointed out it could break Bachmann's record for announcement-production speed given that they are likely to get lots of help from Freightliner - no problems measuring up or getting hold of GADs.

[Guest Phil]

I don??™t know about least satisfactory, but Heljan??™s formula for recent diesel locomotive releases does seem to be along the lines of impressive looks but never quite made it.

 

On this basis I would recommend that they enter the steam market with??¦the Great Eastern Decapod!

 

James Raven.

 

I believe your suggestion that the decapod "didn't quite make it" is not strictly correct.

 

From what I understand, and I'm sure I'll be corrected if I'm wrong, the Decapod was built for one purpose and only one purpose. That was to prove that steam could match electricity in acceleration terms, as a form of traction on commuter trains.

 

I believe the loco was a success in this regard, but it wasn't practicable.

Bit like the round the world flights of Mr Rutan - proved it was possible, but not practicable.

 

That said, the Decapod would be an interesting model - particularly with a couple of nice quad arts on the drawhook.

[Horsetan]

.....the Decapod was built for one purpose and only one purpose. That was to prove that steam could match electricity in acceleration terms, as a form of traction on commuter trains.

 

I believe the loco was a success in this regard....

 

Correct. "30 mph in 30 seconds" was the target I read about.

[S.A.C Martin]

We've already seen the Leader done - which manages to combine the service life and range of the Decapod with the reliability of the NBL diesels

 

Have we?

 

I have yet to see any development of the Leader RTR model - since the original thread was posted on RMweb3. As I said then, I'll repeat now - until we see a CAD drawing or similar or further announcement from either the supplier or manufacturer I would challenge the notion that we've seen the Leader done.

[Horsetan]

The varieties of Webb Compounds should keep them going for several years

 

Yes, but then the models might keep getting returned on the basis that they won't pull anything

[Guest Phil]

Yes, but then the models might keep getting returned on the basis that they won't pull anything

 

 

 

Yeah but......................... It'd be a great way for Mr K to keep the consumer watchdogs off his back. Think of this ;

 

Consumer "ere guv, I bought this engine off you last week but there's a problem with it."

Retailer "Ah yes sir. This is because it is the LNWR "Problem" class of locomotive"

[The Stationmaster]

Yes, but then the models might keep getting returned on the basis that they won't pull anything

 

 

Yeah - but think of the opportunities for the DCC wranglers to get one set of driving wheels rotating in one direction and the other set rotating in the opposite direction.

[The Black Hat]

I predict that in the near future someone will be making a NRM collection engine from the Western regions heritage, that was oddly saved by the LNER. This prediction is not made using a crystal ball, but after reading a hint that wouldnt have been bigger if you got a massive neon light that pointed to where to read.....

[Dick Turpin]

I believe your suggestion that the decapod "didn't quite make it" is not strictly correct.

 

From what I understand, and I'm sure I'll be corrected if I'm wrong, the Decapod was built for one purpose and only one purpose. That was to prove that steam could match electricity in acceleration terms, as a form of traction on commuter trains.

 

I believe the loco was a success in this regard, but it wasn't practicable.

Bit like the round the world flights of Mr Rutan - proved it was possible, but not practicable.

 

That said, the Decapod would be an interesting model - particularly with a couple of nice quad arts on the drawhook.

 

 

Hi Phil,

 

Actually, I was only trying to find a steam equivalent to Heljan??™s choice of diesel models, which seems to be one-off prototypes that didn??™t get adopted as forerunners to a class of similar machines, and small classes introduced before their design flaws had been identified. Furthermore, due to the fact that short lived one-offs tend to attract a disproportionate amount of research, correspondingly they also tend to generate a high level of affection among enthusiasts. I therefore chose the Decapod as a one-off which was visually appealing, but also short lived (in original form) but limited from a point of operation.

 

I am aware that the Decapod was designed for one purpose only (unlike the diesel prototypes) namely to stop the City & North Eastern Surburban Electric Railway proposal being put through Parliament by showing that it was possible for steam to accelerate a 300 ton train to 30mph in 30 seconds. Following tests, the Decapod appears to have managed this and the electric scheme was abandoned. Consequently, the Decapod can be said to have fulfilled its design purpose. It is interesting however, that later research by Dr W.A.Tuplin in the 1960s and John Gardner of the Great Eastern Railway Society since have found that the Decapod is unlikely to have achieved the acceleration rates quoted at the time. Details here:

 

http://www.lner.info...pod/index.shtml

 

A superb looking machine all the same, and if one were to appear RTR I would have one too. In the meantime there is always the very nice South Eastern Finecast kit. And I've got a sneaking suspician about those Quad-Arts.

 

Maybe we could think of more appropriate steam prototypes for Heljan to enter the steam market with that meet their apparent criteria, like the LNER Gresley P1 and P2 classes on the basis that they were small classes - although very successful at what they were built for, extremely pleasing to the eye, and with the potential to create a froth blizzard the like we have not yet seen on the announcement of either!

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Given Heljan's aptitude at livery variations, I should have thought a commonly used industrial loco might be a good candidate for a toe in the UK steam model market. What were the most widely used types? Does one of these look significantly different from the J94 or Neilson 'pug'? Is there a good record available of liveries carried by one of these? A researched package of 'this design with these fairly minor variations, supplied to numerous customers, these livery descriptions, this existing survivor available for measurement' might be the sort of thing to swing it.

[Burkitt]

http://www.lner.info...pod/index.shtml[/font][/size]

 

At the bottom of that page there is a photo of the Decapod after it was rebuilt as an 0-8-0 tender goods locomotive. As far as I can see the only common element between the original and rebuilt locos was the wheels, and possibly the cylinders. How did they justify rebuilding it, when they might as well just have built an extra loco of an existing class and saved a lot of bother with designing and running another unique loco practically from scratch?

 

Paul

[Barry Ten]

At the bottom of that page there is a photo of the Decapod after it was rebuilt as an 0-8-0 tender goods locomotive. As far as I can see the only common element between the original and rebuilt locos was the wheels, and possibly the cylinders. How did they justify rebuilding it, when they might as well just have built an extra loco of an existing class and saved a lot of bother with designing and running another unique loco practically from scratch?

 

Paul

 

Might have been one of those accountancy things, whereby it made more sense to call something a rebuild than a new build, no matter how much of the original was actually retained?

[coachmann]

Given that Bachmann has the bogies, I am suprised this firm has not produced the forerunners of the English electric Type 4s, namely the Southern Region trio 10201-10203 introduced 1951/54.

 

As models they would probably share the same market that purchased 'Kestrel' and the other one-off machines, and so sphere of operation is secondary.

 

Nervertheless, they worked on the Western Section mainline to Exeter and Bournmouth as well as on the london Midland Region 'Royal Scot' and London-Manchester/Liverpool and Birmingham turns. They even found their way onto outer-suburban trains. Congregated at Derby around 1962, they were not scrapped until 1968.

 

Black and silver up to the mid 1950s and lined green thereafter, they would make superb looking models and cover a wider period of steam operation than most mainline diesel locos.

 

Larry G.

[Ravenser]

With Hornby's 2010 programme now announced , it seems time to update the "scoreboard" once again. I have shuffled outstanding items which must now be considered to have slipped out of 2009, added recent releases/announcements and started hinting at 2011

 

so the list of new goodies in 4mm for the next 2 years now reads:

 

Hornby:

2009 - Schools [released], Standard 4MT [released], Castle [New Year 2010], Clan [released], 395 Javelin [released, Warley], a wagon or two, Pullmans [observation car released, buffet ]. Sapphire decoder [released]

2010 - B17 :both Sandringham and Footballer - (late 2010/early 2011), L1 (late 2010), 28xx + 2884(mid 2010?) 4-VEP original (late 2010??), Mk3 DVT and Mk3 buffet (Early 2010?) Mk3 Royal Saloons, [ZCAs now dropped] , OTA, KFA container flat, Hawkesworth coaches (5 types)

 

 

Bachmann:

2009 - 150/1 [released], 150/2 [released] 4-CEP [released - Warley], Standard 3MT [released - Warley]. City of Truro - NRM [released]. I must have missed some wagons?

2010 - A2 (first half). Class B TEA, autoballaster, cattle wagon, 04/ROD (April-June2010?), - 105, MPV (may be 2011), 2EPB (2011), new 03, TPO, MBA (early 2010), JPV, IPA. Possibly 1 more steam engine?

2011 - Class 70 , 2-3 more steam engines, including at least 1 split chassis type retooled (which could be ex LNER?) . ??? Some coaches?? Steam age wagons???

 

Heljan:

2009 - 17[released], Kestrel [released],

2010 - 14 (*Howes) 15, 86, 23 (may be 2011) probably no rolling stock

I'm assuming current production problems will ensure the 15 slips into next year

2011 - 4 wheel railbuses W&M, Park Royal, etc, Lion

 

Dapol:

2009 - MBA [released]

2010 - 22, multifret (early 2010) , KQA pocket wagon , Thumper (*Kernow), ?Original Warship(*Kernow - may be 2011), Beattie well tank (*Kernow - Sept?), Sentinel shunter (Y1/Y3 - *Model Rail) ?Stove R (*Hornby), ICA, PBA (*Kernow) Imerys JIA (*Kernow)

 

Vi- Trains:

Don't hold your breath - any new venture would require development from the ground up, and we have heard nothing new from this manufacturer for well over 12 months

 

A number of preliminary comments can be made:

 

SR/LMS modellers have done very well in recent years, but it seems the pleas of GW/WR and Eastern modellers are finally bearing fruit, with 3 new "native GW types" plus the ROD on the one hand , and no less than 5 ex LNER classes now announced on the other (given the number of split chassis models Bachmann need to replace , a further new LNER loco is not implausible)

 

The pace of new releases has been less than in previous years - especially at Dapol and Heljan who have promised a great deal but only delivered a modest amount in 2009. Hornby are notable for maintaining the pace of deliveries. Modern container operations are being properly addressed but rolling stock is looking a little thin , especially going forward into 2010-11

 

DCC has gone a bit quiet. I suspect we are now settling down into a phase where the hobby makes serious use of the products announced/released in the middle of the decade, rather than a period of significant product development.

[John M Upton]

I may be wrong but have not Heljan also announced a BRCW 'Lion' which will probably be 2011 I would have thought?

[Neal Ball]

I think the significant element is going to be the initial research and tooling cost - that is an unavoidable overhead cost whatever is being made and presumably one which manufacturers will wish to get back into their coffers as quickly as possible. Now they might be prepared, and financially able, to carry an element of it for, say, an extra year. As I understand things with a 'medium size loco' on traditional tooling development we are talking about costs of at least ??70,000 (perhaps up to ??100,000 by now?) although equally the use of CAD and scanning the subject would presumably reduce costs by quite a hefty amount once the technology has been amortised.

 

But - for the sake of simplicity - let's assume a development cost of ??50,000; that means on an initial run of 1,000 models the company has got to either recover ??50 per model or carry the interest on any money it doesn't recover at that stage. But once the tooling cost has been recovered that ??50 per model turns into pure profit - so any subsequent runs during the life of the tools carry only a production and distribution cost.

 

In other words making more A3s or 'King Arthurs' (minor tooling variations apart of course) makes the manufacturer a greater profit assuming a similar wholesale price. And that profit is also available to fund the development of new models.

 

On the other hand forever tooling completely new models means forever investing in development and tooling costs which either means carrying what could be ever increasing interest charges or recovering the investment off short productions runs, which might well increase prices and lose market share.

 

Don't forget too that in the case of Hornby we are talking about about a public company with an incresasingly wide product base and shareholders whose main interest is the value of their shares - not how many different locos can be conjured up in the next 5 years. The company's marketeers have to support their product development with profits on what they came up with last year or the year before - or they can forget either the opportunity to expand the range or a future salary, or both.

 

 

Hi Mike,

Some very good points well made here.

At the end of the day its the shareholders who Hornby have to answer to. So if they do not see an immediate return on a production run of (say) 2000 GWR Bulldog locos, then its not going to happen. So I guess I either need to fund the R & D myself (unlikely) or find a friendly model shop who wants to commit to something not catered for elsewhere.

 

so then, 1. GWR Railmotor; 2. Bull/Dukedog; Toplight coaches; Blue Pullman - Oh hang on a second where is that Lottery ticket.....

[Bruciethefish]

Quote;-"I have yet to see any development of the Leader RTR model - since the original thread was posted on RMweb3. As I said then, I'll repeat now - until we see a CAD drawing or similar or further announcement from either the supplier or manufacturer I would challenge the notion that we've seen the Leader done."

 

I've so far handbuilt & sold around 150 of these in R-T-R form, so from my point of view, the 'Leader' has most definately been 'done' ;- to the point where I feel like taking a large hammer to each one I build

 

 

 

[Glorious NSE]

Couple of notes on the list:

 

Dapol - the ICA silver bullet isn't listed and isn't out yet, so that would now be 2010

Not mentioned is the PBA "Clay Tiger" and Imerys JIA (both via Kernow)

 

Word from another place is the Hornby ZCA's have indeed been dropped.

 

I thought the "class B" TEA from Bachmann was out already? Could be wrong though.

 

Oh, Bachmann's upcoming bogie cement tank still won't be vacuum braked!