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Its 2020 who will be running what.


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There is going to be a lot of change in the next few years and we are going to see a flood of new express stock onto the ECML, GWML and likely electrified MML - the government wanted IEP, reading the rail press the leasing companies want more Pendolinos.

 

Assuming the leasing companies get their way and it's Pendolinos instead of IEP, what do people believe will happen to the HST and 91/Mk4 fleets.

 

Will Chiltern be encouraged to wire up Marylebone to Birmingham, as that will be the only station whose mainline services will be wholly diesel. I know it's in their long term aspirations but I expect there will need to be something extra to get them to do it.

 

Just like they banished steam to clean up the environment, could there be a case to banish all but the very cleanest diesels in many metropolitan areas?

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I suspect that much cleaner diesels will be the way forward for those lines not already electrified for any great distance...electrification will be used to fill in gaps or extend existing wires to logical conclusions - such as the Great Western main line to Reading or even Oxford. I cannot see the Chiltern line getting electrified, especially as we are seeing more and more 'cleaner' diesels and hybrids on the way. It will be interesting to see how much impact HS2 will have on this type of wholesale railway upgrade...will there be the money available for anything more than essentials and maintenance?

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I reckon DRS will be running 66's as they will be old hat but still serviceable and everyone else will be running things like 71's bit like a 70 but more power and cleaner lol

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As per above, First have already stated IEPs will not run past Devon. Some 16 sets will have an internal refit nore suitable for the distance travelled and POSSABLE CET and slide/plug doors. This will be the mainline fleet for services to Kernow.

 

Turbo units will be cascaded but at present, only 150 and 153s are permitted on the Kernewek branches so expect to see them for a few years yet.

 

Of course if somebody else wins the GW franchise...... .

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Wonder what would happen if Virgin won the GWR franchise ,Penderlinos and Siemens Desiros not a bad prospect.If Natex won it there would probably be a cheap solution to rolling stock and station development and all catering on trains got rid of.Stagecoach would make a good job of things clean trains ,and would bring innovation in services.If Chinese railways took over it would be hard class to Cornwall ,three classes on rest of services,naturaly all units would be built in China.

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2020

 

Wigan - Manchester will still have pacers and semaphore signalling. £5 return. Run by "a bus company owned by Germany".

 

HS2 sold to the Chinese, London to Birmingham £500 return - walk on standard class. Extension to Manchester / Leeds cancelled as London - Birmingham 100% over-run on cost & timescale.

 

Petrol £5 / litre, diesel a bit more.

 

Lots to look forward to (not)

 

Brit15

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Scottish Government-owned Class 170s running an hourly service between Hawick, recently extended (with Scottish and EU funding) from Tweedbank on the Scottish-owned Borders Railway, and Edinburgh.

 

St Andrews and Dundee services enter their third year, with dual-fuel hybrid Class 179s, and hydrogen fuel-cell Class 132s ply their trade on the Welsh Government-funded Amlwch branch.

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My thoughts were more along the lines of what happens to surplus HSTs and the 91 Fleet once the leasing companies get more Pendolinos to run services on the ECML and GWML (to Bristol).

 

Would open access operators pick them up, if they did what sorts of services might they introduce and where would all these fleets get serviced given it is likely that the franchise operators would have turned their servicing capabilities to cater mainly for Pendolinos.

 

Never mind the other big issue of capacity on the main lines, is there any scope for an open access service on the GWML?

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Never mind the other big issue of capacity on the main lines, is there any scope for an open access service on the GWML?

 

On parts yes but if you try going through Reading then finding paths for anything might well be very hard.

I wonder if there would be any merit in an open access operator trying a service from Plymouth to Portsmouth via Westbury. Possibly even continuing further down the south coast.

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My thoughts were more along the lines of what happens to surplus HSTs and the 91 Fleet once the leasing companies get more Pendolinos to run services on the ECML and GWML (to Bristol).

 

I can't imagine anyone would want to take on the cost of a major overhaul for what will be life expired HST sets, and that's just the re-engined examples: remember that the oldest MTU class 43's will be 15 years old come 2020! Having said that, the knitting isn't going to extend past Cardiff, or south of Bristol, so one wonders what will really happen there?

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No passenger trains will be running as no-one will be able to afford a ticket.

 

It's going that way slowly.

 

A couple of years ago, I read in the "Railway Magazine" editorial (can't remember the issue) a comment that stated "perhaps the train operating companies will decline investment as it is more profitable to "Squeeze the asset" i.e. get as much as possible out of what you have. Don't increase capacity at a set fare, leave capacity as is and increase the fare - result increase revenue twofold.

 

This seems to be happening. Yes, some new investment is promised - but all I see at the moment is higher fares - not new trains / lines.

 

Jam tomorrow.

 

Brit15

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I suspect that much cleaner diesels will be the way forward for those lines not already electrified for any great distance...electrification will be used to fill in gaps or extend existing wires to logical conclusions - such as the Great Western main line to Reading or even Oxford. I cannot see the Chiltern line getting electrified, especially as we are seeing more and more 'cleaner' diesels and hybrids on the way.

 

With Chiltern, I see electrification coming about only as part of a bigger scheme as on its own the benifits are not enough to justify it - especially with the relativley young age of most of their stock. For example if the wires were extended from Oxford to Birmingham for the benefit of Cross country and Freight, then wiring up the Chiltern route from Banbury to Marlyebone would make sense. Unfortunatley this type of 'infill' electrification is difficult to promote on todays fragmented railway compared to scheme like the Great Western one which only relies on the needs of a single franchise to justify it.

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158s on Falmouth ? Not without remodling as they are currently out of gauge.

 

Open access operator doing all the local stuff using heritage 101s etc on St Ives and Looe and loco/coaches on the PZ - PLY locals and all stock and stations in chocolate and cream.

 

New Sleeper stock following on from the 2013 build for Scotrail. Locos - UK gauge diesel hydrulic Voith maximas in GW green with brass trimmings.

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It's going that way slowly.

 

Give it a rest, stop acting like a child. HS1 was delivered on time and on budget and our much bemoaned train fares havent managed to halt passenger growth during a recession - not only is it not 'going that way slowly', its going in the completely opposite direction.

 

Chris

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Guest Max Stafford

A4 and A2 - powered services between Whitrope and Riccarton Junction, with work in hand to extend to Steele Road and Newcastleton.

Major works on Whitrope Tunnel and re-instating Lynwood Viaduct to allow extension to Hawick (Lochpark) look promising following a members £30m Euromillions win...

 

Dave.

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Apple will come out with iTrain, your own personal pod that will run on existing ROWs. An app for the iPhone23 will let you choose your destination, and regardless, you will end up in Scotland.

 

Sounds like a good idea to me! :sungum:

 

Dave.

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Give it a rest, stop acting like a child. HS1 was delivered on time and on budget and our much bemoaned train fares havent managed to halt passenger growth during a recession - not only is it not 'going that way slowly', its going in the completely opposite direction.

 

Chris

 

So obviously you are happy with things such as fare increases which are out of all proportion, not to mention being conveyed in cramped, overcrowded carriages in silly little trains which are far too short. Perhaps you think that three standard class carriages in a long distance cross country train from one end of the country to the other is also not something to complain about. Despite the sky high fares, there's not a lot of recent reinvestment in trains on that route, apart from the refit of the voyagers which increased the seating capacity of the whole train by a grand total of about fifteen seats. Wow. I know service frequences have increasesed when voyagers took over but so have passenger numbers. How about some actual new (and decent) carriages.

 

Pehaps some of the passenger growth that you mention is because some people who have no choice but to travel. There's often not a lot of realistic alternatives to choose from if you need to get about long distance by public transport.

 

As a life long die-hard rail enthusiat, it amazes me that modern cars are constantly getting better, faster, quieter, more comfortable where as train travel is becoming more and more of a joke. I think its actually very sad.

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