RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted December 14, 2012 RMweb Gold Share Posted December 14, 2012 The letter states that all examples, including the DCC Fitted ones, are now due in February 2013 Somewhat infuriating as a retailer, as the information at the beginning of the week was that they were arriving at Margate week commencing 7th December There is another list (possibly from this letter?) of delayed items in the January issue of 'Hornby Magazine'. I wonder if 7th December was a ship arrival date as opposed to any other sort of date? Looks now as if it might become a date that will live in infamy - for those who can't manage without these for another few weeks but far more so for retailers who have lost out on a pre-Crhristmas sales boost. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted December 14, 2012 RMweb Gold Share Posted December 14, 2012 Seeing as how long the containers take to get here by ship from China (at least 4 weeks), it really does seem as if Hornby has no idea what's actually on its way. If it did, then it would have known since November what had already been shipped and late arrival would be down to delays on the high seas or perhaps customs clearance once in the UK. Pity Andy didn't ask Simon Kohler about this... I recall seeing or hearing a remark attributed (could be incorrectly?) to Simon Kohler saying that sometimes Hornby didn't have a clue what was in a particular container until they opened it on arrival at Margate. But clearly they sometimes they do know what's coming as they advertise it in the mags so maybe, if true, the remark didn't apply to everything. And while ships are sometimes delayed that is usually well known in advance of their planned UK arrival date and it is easy enough for anyone to track most ships anyway. Customs and port clearance delays are also quite understandable - especially at busy times (e.g just before Christmas) so allowance can be built in to avoid unduly optimistic estimates of arrival dates - in fact it does leave you wondering if Hornby were trying to fuel dealers', and end customers, expectations with shipping dates and not explaining exactly what that might mean? Anyway whatever it is or was it has happened and it's only a box of toys involved. However we might be talking too about retailers' cash flow and budgetting - which could be a very serious matter for some of them - and we seem, once again, to be wondering about a less than polished management system for product delivery (which also affects Hornby's cash flow of course). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Prism Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 To be fair, I don't think Bachmann has much clue about what's arriving in their containers sometimes, either. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium melmerby Posted December 14, 2012 RMweb Premium Share Posted December 14, 2012 If they are not going to be here until February, that must mean that there aren't any ready to ship to the UK right now. So how come until a few days ago we were still being led to believe that they would be here this week? Left hand, right hand, and not knowing come to mind. Keith EDIT: How about Hornby retailing straight from China? (It would mess up the dealers here a bit!!!) Last year (as I reported here) I ordered an MP3 player from a non Chinese company (but manufactured in China) It was sent from Shenzen and arrived in two days! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold gwrrob Posted December 14, 2012 RMweb Gold Share Posted December 14, 2012 I still think it wouldn't have hurt Hornby to air freight some for the Christmas market if they're ready of course. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darwinian Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 February 2013 eh? By then I might be able to afford a PDK one instead , by combining a Christmas prezzie that wasn't available with a birthday one. Which should I go for? Hornby might have just lost another sale. Darwinian Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold tomparryharry Posted December 14, 2012 RMweb Gold Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'd suggest that Hornby are awaiting filling a container. It costs the same to ship it either empty or full. Half full containers are not economic for the customer. I don't know how many 42/72's are on order, but I'd suggest they won't fill a 20' sea container in their own right. If its a 40' container, then a lot more stock is coming.... Normally, in supply chain workings, to an end customer (in this case, Hornby), once a container is full, then it goes on the next ship. Being an opportunist, I'd reckon Hornby have undersold the 42/72, and they know it. I'd expect the range to come out around easter, with a healthy price hike. I just hope I'm wrong, that's all. Regards, Ian Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete55 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The letter states that all examples, including the DCC Fitted ones, are now due in February 2013 Somewhat infuriating as a retailer, as the information at the beginning of the week was that they were arriving at Margate week commencing 7th December Makes you wonder if Hornby have paid their manufacturing bills!!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium melmerby Posted December 14, 2012 RMweb Premium Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'd suggest that Hornby are awaiting filling a container. Regards, Ian Don't containers get filled with mixed cargo? If everybody had to take a box to themselves it wouldn't be very economical. Keith Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffalo Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 How about this version? On Friday last, a 20' container arrives at Margate. Amid much excitement, Hornby tell their dealers to expect the 42XX/72XX next week. On Saturday a fax arrives from China "You know those GWR tanks you were expecting? Well, someone forgot to put them on the boat". Panic ensues, someone goes out to look in the container only to find a load of gardening tools for B&Q. Nick Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilwell Park Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 How about this version? On Friday last, a 20' container arrives at Margate. Amid much excitement, Hornby tell their dealers to expect the 42XX/72XX next week. On Saturday a fax arrives from China "You know those GWR tanks you were expecting? Well, someone forgot to put them on the boat". Panic ensues, someone goes out to look in the container only to find a load of gardening tools for B&Q. Nick Having , in the past, been involved in the purchase of spares for telecomms equipment from China, that sounds very familiar. Roger. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozexpatriate Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Maybe buyers might get a free gift from Hornby by way of apology for the delay? That would give them the perfect opportunity to shift all those, er, unsold Wenlock and Mandeville toys.... So you suggest adding insult to injury then? Such deviousness. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold tomparryharry Posted December 14, 2012 RMweb Gold Share Posted December 14, 2012 Don't containers get filled with mixed cargo? If everybody had to take a box to themselves it wouldn't be very economical. Keith Hello Keith, You will generally find that its one container-one consignee. Regards, Ian Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Neal Ball Posted December 15, 2012 RMweb Premium Share Posted December 15, 2012 With increasing costs in China, together with on-going delays etc.... I wonder if we are getting close to the point where manufactoring returns to the UK.... Or at least to a European country that would avoid all of these trans-shipment issues. Would you pay an extra £10 or so for a UK built loco? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted December 15, 2012 RMweb Gold Share Posted December 15, 2012 With increasing costs in China, together with on-going delays etc.... I wonder if we are getting close to the point where manufactoring returns to the UK.... Or at least to a European country that would avoid all of these trans-shipment issues. Would you pay an extra £10 or so for a UK built loco? For a UK built loco it might well be more than a tenner but still worth it for all sorts of reasons - The Guarniad reported in 2011 that Margate had an unemployment rate of c.20% and the highest percentage (37.4%) of empty high street shops in Britain. For a European built one it would probably be even more - and if it was built in Romania it would probably contain some dodgy components judging by past experience. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OFFTHE RAILS Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Is his thread the start of a new "Cargo Cult" ?? Ian Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Metr0Land Posted December 15, 2012 RMweb Gold Share Posted December 15, 2012 Is his thread the start of a new "Cargo Cult" ?? Ian Spooky! I was just thinking of that this morning, though not in relation to this thread. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsetan Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 So you suggest adding insult to injury then? Such deviousness. In for a penny, in for a Renminbi. ...if it was built in Romania it would probably contain some dodgy components judging by past experience. I'd expect the container to include a free consignment of Roma gypsies too... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Hat Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 For a European built one it would probably be even more - and if it was built in Romania it would probably contain some dodgy components judging by past experience. Hornby do make a class 56 and like thr prototypes they could be a little controversial when not given some TLC. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozexpatriate Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 With increasing costs in China, together with on-going delays etc.... I wonder if we are getting close to the point where manufactoring returns to the UK.... Or at least to a European country that would avoid all of these trans-shipment issues. Would you pay an extra £10 or so for a UK built loco? Neal, I know lots of British outline railway modellers are very keen to see manufacturing back in England. I understand that and we discussed this at length at various points the Hornby autumn profit alert - No profit this year, says Hornby thread. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but these things need to be assessed objectively. Here are a couple of things to consider: Cost of shipping Cost of labour 1. Cost of shipping My back of the envelope calculations (which mind you are not very trustworthy, but I hope, a decent SWAG) suggest that it costs no more than £0.15 to ship each locomotive all the way from China to the UK. 2. Cost of labour From a BBC article discussed in the other thread on Chinese labour: But in the last eight years, basic pay has risen from 20 pence per hour to £1 ($1.60). According to this, minimum wage in the UK is £6.19 per hour. (In the US it varies state by state but the Federal minimum is $7.25.) Let's do some maths because maths are fun. For argument's sake let's say: a model retails for £100.00, with a cost of goods sold (COGS) at £50.00, and, since we know building model trains is labour intensive, let's assume half of the COGS in China are labour = £25.00, (the argument being that increasing wages in China are *material* to total COGS)* Manufactured in England, that labour cost goes from £25.00 to $150.00 (using a factor of six) and the model now costs £225 with no more markup than the original model. It's hardly an extra tenner. This is the reality of the world in which we live. There are of course intangibles - like the cost of getting things right in a timely manner. This is a real problem with technology gadgets where if you get it wrong you miss a market window and your product fails. The market window for 'toy trains' is not like 7" tablets, it's actually pretty squishy. What is the impact of being twelve months late with a model of an eighty year old locomotive selling into a market that doesn't like things to change much? * Note that I am not suggesting that it takes 25 hours (at £1 per hour) to assemble each locomotive in an assembly line environment. I'm sure it's much less than that. But we have to amortize in all the Chinese wage cost including toolmakers, management, pre-production painting and assembly etc. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Not Captain Kernow Posted December 17, 2012 RMweb Premium Share Posted December 17, 2012 It is also highly unlikely you would get the people who could produce such finely detailed models in the UK by only paying the minimum wage. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsetan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 ..... selling into a market that doesn't like things to change much?.... Particularly the price tag? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerald Henriksen Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 2. Cost of labour From a BBC article discussed in the other thread on Chinese labour: According to this, minimum wage in the UK is £6.19 per hour. (In the US it varies state by state but the Federal minimum is $7.25.) Let's do some maths because maths are fun. For argument's sake let's say: a model retails for £100.00, with a cost of goods sold (COGS) at £50.00, and, since we know building model trains is labour intensive, let's assume half of the COGS in China are labour = £25.00, (the argument being that increasing wages in China are *material* to total COGS)* Manufactured in England, that labour cost goes from £25.00 to $150.00 (using a factor of six) and the model now costs £225 with no more markup than the original model. It's hardly an extra tenner. This is the reality of the world in which we live. We actually can do better, because a manufacturer has publicly commented on the issue of moving production from China to North America. The highlights - 7.5 hours of labour to make a highly detailed model, which converts to just under $13 per model. It is estimated the labour cost in Canada for that model would be $128. He guesses that adding in all the other costs would bump the model from about $80 to the $400 to $500 range. See the end of this newsletter http://www.rapidotra...pidonews39.html Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozexpatriate Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 See the end of this newsletter http://www.rapidotra...pidonews39.html Thank you Gerald, that Rapido link is really excellent. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Neal Ball Posted December 18, 2012 RMweb Premium Share Posted December 18, 2012 In any event, let's hope they arrive in the UK soon! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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