East West rail, Bletchley to oxford line

[Northmoor]

29 minutes ago, Davexoc said:

 

That sounds a bit slow, especially if the intermediate stops are only Bletchley, Winslow and Bicester, but then if it had been electrified it could have been so much quicker. I don't know the rail route mileage, but by road it is only around 40 miles depending on which way you go....

I don't know the rail route distance, but if it's 45 miles with three intermediate stops, then an average of 60mph is very quick indeed.  Electrification isn't going to improve much on that; remember that 90 seconds dwell time at each station is 90 seconds, while the speed limits through the junctions outside Oxford and Bletchley are also the same, irrespective of the traction power. 

[melmerby]

31 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

I don't know the rail route distance, but if it's 45 miles with three intermediate stops, then an average of 60mph is very quick indeed.  Electrification isn't going to improve much on that; remember that 90 seconds dwell time at each station is 90 seconds, while the speed limits through the junctions outside Oxford and Bletchley are also the same, irrespective of the traction power. 

Indeed.

A Birmingham New Street to Euston Pendolino (125mph max) takes 81 mins for 110 miles with 2 stops. = 81mph

A West Midlands Trains 350 (110mph) takes 132 minutes for the 110 miles with 13 stops = 50mph.

60mph for a semi fast is pretty good.

[Arun Sharma]

6 hours ago, KingEdwardII said:

Oxford to Cambridge is around 87 miles by road, using a route roughly equivalent to the planned EWR route. The road journey takes about 2h 30m.

 

What you'd ideally like to see is a train with a similar timing, stopping only at St Neots, Bedford, Bletchley and Bicester (say). Whether that will ever come to pass remains to be seen. However, this is what is required for the route to be competitive in terms of speed.

 

I seem to recall that Stagecoach's X5 bus which used to run between Oxford-Bicester North-Buckingham-Milton Keynes-Bedford-St Neots-Cambridge took a a little longer than 2hrs30. Now that the X5 now only runs Oxford to Bedford and connects with another bus from Bedford to Cambridge [with all the same intermediate stops], the journey may well take a little longer. That comparison between different modes of public transport is probably a more realistic comparison of passenger times - Especially as my experince of the old X5 was that few people actually went all the way from Oxford to Cambridge.

 

Secondly, the arguably more [?most] useful function of the E-W route is to join freight lines from Southampton docks and the West to the OW&W, WCML, MML and eventually ECML and perhaps East Anglian ports. In that sense, whether or not any passengers choose to use the railway is almost irrelevant.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Arun Sharma

[melmerby]

49 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

I don't know the rail route distance, but if it's 45 miles with three intermediate stops,

I've just done a trace using google maps measurer and it's about 35 miles by rail from MK to Oxford, which is about 47mph, so not that much slower than the 350 from Brum to the smoke.

As the crow flies it's about 31 miles

 

 

[KingEdwardII]

8 hours ago, Arun Sharma said:

That comparison between different modes of public transport is probably a more realistic comparison

Except that the timing for the rail route via London is 2h 30m, which I think makes a benchmark for any journey over EWR.

 

The quoted times from EWR look something like 2h 10m (45 + 45 + 35) - but I note that these times seem to be "all stations" and NOT express-style timings.

 

The shame is that the current plans for the upgrade of Bletchley - Bedford have been pared back with slower speeds and some remaining single track sections. This does not bode well for the idea of express style workings. Bit reminiscent of the current Salisbury - Exeter route. This is perhaps more significant than the lack of electrification.

 

If we think of EWR as also providing connections to the various N/S main lines, the overall timings matter a lot.

 

Yours, Mike.

[Northmoor]

2 hours ago, KingEdwardII said:

Except that the timing for the rail route via London is 2h 30m, which I think makes a benchmark for any journey over EWR.

 

The quoted times from EWR look something like 2h 10m (45 + 45 + 35) - but I note that these times seem to be "all stations" and NOT express-style timings.

 

The shame is that the current plans for the upgrade of Bletchley - Bedford have been pared back with slower speeds and some remaining single track sections. This does not bode well for the idea of express style workings. Bit reminiscent of the current Salisbury - Exeter route. This is perhaps more significant than the lack of electrification.

 

If we think of EWR as also providing connections to the various N/S main lines, the overall timings matter a lot.

 

Yours, Mike.

I completely agree about the restriction of single track sections, but would make a couple of caveats on end-to-end journey times.  It's been shown that the number of people currently using public transport over the whole Oxford-Cambridge route is small (although perhaps there is a lot of latent demand?).  Perhaps more importantly, the overall time does not need to be the same or quicker than via London, as the attraction for many people will be not changing trains.  Many people, particularly the elderly or irregular rail users, will be prepared to pay a 15-20 minute penalty to avoid changing, especially if those changes involve negotiating Central London.

[DenysW]

2 hours ago, Northmoor said:

especially if those changes involve negotiating Central London.

I am continually staggered (and possibly staggering) at how far you have to walk within KX/St. Pancras to get from platforms A&B to the Tube (and back on the return). Yes the stairs have escalators, but the long slogs don't have travellators.

 

And that's just one, 'modern' example.

[melmerby]

Changing train/bus etc. half way through a journey is always fraught with the danger that the 2nd part might be late/cancelled.

At least once on a train (or bus) there is a good chance it will finish the journey, if it is running reasonably on time.

[DenysW]

8 hours ago, melmerby said:

At least once on a train (or bus) there is a good chance it will finish the journey, if it is running reasonably on time.

SWMBO and I once got on a late-in-the-day train from York to Nottingham via Derby to catch a Derby-Leicester connection home. I was stupid enough at York to say words to the effect of "Well, that's the risky part over" having started the day in Inverness.

 

We left York on time. We paused interminably and often, until our connection had left Derby before we got there. We and others whinged. We were advised to stay on the train as it wended its way to Nottingham.

 

It then re-started (off-timetable, but possibly not off working-time-table) and ran to Leicester, stopping at Loughborough, where it terminated.

 

I've never ridden on a special just-for-a-handful-of-you service before or after.

[The Stationmaster]

On 22/12/2023 at 17:07, Edwin_m said:

The official site doesn't quote the Oxford-Cambridge journey time (reflecting the expectation that few people will travel the whole route).  It quotes 45min from Oxford to MK and 35min from Bedford to Cambridge, so the end to end time is likely to be somewhat under 2hr.  

 

https://eastwestrail.co.uk/benefits-of-ewr

The mile post mileage rail distance from Oxford station to MK station is, as near as makes no difference, 35 miles.  Which gives an average speed of a whisker over 46.5 mph if my maths are right.    In view of the fact that some junctions are quite heavily speed restricted plus there will be some intermediate stops which that probably gives a nett running time of c.41-42 minutes that is going to involve running at in excess of 75mph for much of the trip.  

 

That strikes me as pretty good in view of the nature of the route although we don't yet know the traction so we don't know the reality of what speeds mighn be achievable.  (Rule of thumb is that in order to get an average of 50mph you need to be running for most of the time at 80mph.)

Edited December 24, 2023 by The Stationmaster

[melmerby]

Nice to see that my quick reckoning on Friday was pretty accurate.🙂

[2750Papyrus]

The East-West web site has previously reported track laying between Bicester and Bletchley as 99% complete.  Test running was due to begin this year, with passenger services in 2025. 

 

Do we yet yet know which operator and stock will be used?

[jamie92208]

I think that this video answers the above question. 

 

4 car 196's sublease from West Midlands apparently. 

 

Jamie

[corneliuslundie]

I am surprised that WMR does not need the 196s. I have a vague feeling that at one time it was suggested that it would be ex ATW 175s but presumably that went by the wayside after the fires. But don't quote me on that as it may be a complete fiction of my imagining.

Jonathan

[simon b]

1 hour ago, corneliuslundie said:

I am surprised that WMR does not need the 196s. I have a vague feeling that at one time it was suggested that it would be ex ATW 175s but presumably that went by the wayside after the fires. But don't quote me on that as it may be a complete fiction of my imagining.

Jonathan

Due to the drop in passenger numbers from covid, enough 196's are surplus to operate the service. Chiltern are operating it on behalf of EWR, but I would expect that a few years down the line they will merge into Chiltern anyway. 

 

If it turns out the rumors of the mk5's heading to Chiltern are true, that would free up a few 168's which could also be used to operate the service instead of the 196's. The 175's are rumored to be going "up" in the world.

Edited January 22 by simon b

[Nearholmer]

4 hours ago, 2750Papyrus said:

with passenger services in 2025. 

Every January that I can remember, the start of service date has been cited as the year after the one that just started.

[simon b]

One thing that I should point out in that video is that all the bridges on the Bicester to Bletchley section have enough clearance for OHLE. No further modifications will be needed to install wires. Any that didn't clear have already been rebuilt. 

 

It isn't getting wired now because the few multiple units that will use the line doesn't justify it.

Edited January 22 by simon b

[Davexoc]

2 hours ago, simon b said:

It isn't getting wired now because the few multiple units that will use the line doesn't justify it.

 

Had the Didcot - Oxford knitting been erected, it might have been more likely. It would have opened up more opportunities, like Northampton as a turnback rather than MK. And they could have run Bescot to Hinksey under the wires too...

 

[simon b]

17 minutes ago, Davexoc said:

 

Had the Didcot - Oxford knitting been erected, it might have been more likely. It would have opened up more opportunities, like Northampton as a turnback rather than MK. And they could have run Bescot to Hinksey under the wires too...

 

I agree completely, and it doesn't look like the wires are going to reach Oxford anytime soon. I've tried explaining this to people before, no point wiring EWR if it doesn't connect with the great western electrification for through traffic. 

Edited January 22 by simon b

[Arun Sharma]

Perhaps extending wiring from Didcot to Oxford will happen once the rebuilding of Oxford station and the adjacent bridge over the Botley Road have been completed? Sometime around Oct 2024 perhaps?

[phil-b259]

7 hours ago, Arun Sharma said:

Perhaps extending wiring from Didcot to Oxford will happen once the rebuilding of Oxford station and the adjacent bridge over the Botley Road have been completed? Sometime around Oct 2024 perhaps?

 

Unlikely - because the Government doesn't do joined up thinking and the Freight operators have dumped electric locos because of high electricity prices (something Hm Government insists are a matter for the free market)

 

In any case Didcot - Oxford electrification has been undermined by the use of bi-mode IETs for the fastest services.

 

In reality Didcot - Oxford is best done as part of a much wider scheme, namely Didcot - Oxford - Birmingham and Reading - Basingstoke. That would make it useful for XC and Chiltern via the use of tri / bi mode units (not just GWR) as well as potentially freight. But that sort of cross silo thinking doesn't happen in the UK where an obsession with keeping each business case tightly defined and trying to leave as much as possible to the powers of the free market wreck any attempts at long term strategic decision making.

 

 

[simon b]

I'm sure I read somewhere that wiring further than Didcot had been abandoned due to the massive cost increase over what was projected, Bi modes being the solution for the time being. If wires do ever reach Oxford it wont be for another 10 years at least, or until someone does something about the price of electricity for trains.

[corneliuslundie]

Of course, in any country with a sane government ANY new railway line would be electrified from the start.

Jonathan

[Covkid]

13 hours ago, simon b said:

I agree completely, and it doesn't look like the wires are going to reach Oxford anytime soon. I've tried explaining this to people before, no point wiring EWR if it doesn't connect with the great western electrification for through traffic. 

Technically, it doesn't have to.  Although the 25kV installation at Oxford might be better in one hit, AFAIK the MKC trains would / could be terminating in the bay platforms. So had Oxford-Bletchley been equipped for electric trains, the service would have been much "cleaner".  Not only that a fleet of 12 years old, 100 mph capable EMUs suitable for operating the service are currently sat in Worksop yard growing mushrooms. 

 

The lack of keenness to make the EWR a showcase new service, particular from the "city of learning" is a big disappointment  

[Nearholmer]

15 minutes ago, Covkid said:

The lack of keenness to make the EWR

Sentence pruned to reflect what I perceive to be reality.