Where are the Hornby models?

[robmcg]

I think a well-phrased public announcement by Hornby to the extent that they have had supply difficulties and are trying to fulfil promises would not go amiss.

 

Of course they may have done this and I missed it.  Not easy for model shops, either way.

[darren01]

Hi

My local shop has had nothing in from Hornby for a while ,This shop has second hand in the shop as long as I have been going their.

But I have noticed that the display cabinet is now starting to look a little bear now, but the S/H stuff has grown.

We now have four weeks till Christmas, it dose not look like the shops will have a good one, if nothing comes out this side of Christmas and it will do Hornby reputation  any good as well.

Looking at myself this year I have brought one loco, a 3F and a few bits of rolling stock, it not because I could not afford to, it was because their was nothing coming out.

The list of loco I am waiting to buy at some time, is their ,but no locos .

This year must has  have been the worst for Hornby for a long time and I do hope they sort it out and are back making the models we want and on time , and not silly prices!.

Only time will tell.

[Mike at C&M]

Whilst there are many of us on here who are aware of the Hornby supply problems, Christmas is a time when many of those who don't take the hobby too seriously make that once a year purchase for their train sets.

 

There are many who believe that Hornby are invincible and can do no wrong and why is that incompetant shop owner unable to supply us with the model that Hornby promised us in 2013. Therefore our local shop must be rubbish and I will go elsewhere next time. 

 

This is already happening and I suspect many model shops have an unofficial target of losing a few customer as possible, whilst Hornby tell us little or nothing about what is actually happening, and truthful release dates.

[Coombe Barton]

Wonder if with Tri-ang they're trying to do a Lloyds TSB style rebrand - all the TSB Ads say it's a new name 200 years old.

[scorpion]

The Hornby vacuum will allow Realtrack to drop their wonder product in to fill the void, 144s for Christmas everyone

[Ron Ron Ron]

.....The dash to China was to get cheap manufacturing...

 

I don't think that Hornby had any real choice but to go to China if it was to produce models of any kind for under several hundred pounds....

Hornby had no choice but to go to China. By their own admission, the company would have gone bust sometime around 2000-02 if it hadn't happened.

 

 

....Hornby have definitely lost there way and seem to be profit orientated....

??????

The SOLE purpose of the company's existence is to make profits.

Of course they are "profit orientated". If they weren't, the board and executive would be thrown out the door or the company would go bust.

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

....Christmas is a time when many of those who don't take the hobby too seriously make that once a year purchase for their train sets....

 

Sadly for Hornby they are a diminishing number. 

 

The train set market has been shrinking for years and the last three pre-Christmas periods have witnessed a big slump in Hornby's sales figures.

 

 

.

[robmcg]

Well, the list of good models for December release is a hope for sales close to Christmas, too close for many retailers perhaps. My feeling is that web sales are increasing compared to say five years ago, and these might be less susceptible to the Christmas trade thing?

 

Myself, I just want Hornby to announce a no-holds-barred original-condition Merchant Navy to the very best standard the industry can muster, at the best standard they achieved a couple of years ago.  But these suggestions are frowned-on around here, and I air it only because I just did this pic of Hornby's rebuilt Merchant Navy 35011, also in the 'Large Green and Powerful Locomotive' thread, and thought to myself, what a fine model.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[aussiebrfan]

I was at a local MR show yesterday and was having a word with the proprietor of a local manufacturer and it seems that woes in China also affect the local product here in Oz. He directed me to his website newsletter that gives some insight into some delays he has had to deal with. Read the  LHG Brake Van section.

I have no connection at all with this manufacturer, just thought that he has a very open way of communicating with his customers that I found refreshing (and amusing).

 

http://www.austrains.com.au/newsletters/newsletter_62_november_2013_ver1.pdf

 

 

Regards G.

 

PS. I particularly like the part about office hours, 

[APOLLO]

We need a similar, honest & up to date monthly newsletter from Hornby

 

Of course, as this is the UK, nowt will happen.

 

Brit 15

[Fenman]

I was at a local MR show yesterday and was having a word with the proprietor of a local manufacturer and it seems that woes in China also affect the local product here in Oz. He directed me to his website newsletter that gives some insight into some delays he has had to deal with. Read the  LHG Brake Van section.

I have no connection at all with this manufacturer, just thought that he has a very open way of communicating with his customers that I found refreshing (and amusing).

 

http://www.austrains.com.au/newsletters/newsletter_62_november_2013_ver1.pdf

 

...

 

This sentence in that newsletter really caught my eye:

 

"Based on a recent quote the new run of NR’s will cost us 5½ times what the first run cost in 2000."

 

Ouch.

 

Paul

[aussiebrfan]

This sentence in that newsletter really caught my eye:

 

"Based on a recent quote the new run of NR’s will cost us 5½ times what the first run cost in 2000."

 

Ouch.

 

Paul

 

 

Really makes you wonder whether the Chinese were under estimating the cost to produce these models back then or our now trying to gauge what price the customer can be pushed to.

Keep in mind this is Australian outline where until recently (last 10 or so years) there was no high quality RTR available, only brass imports and kits. Of course the market place here is a lot smaller hence smaller quantities produced with are usually guaranteed to sell out.

[Andy Hayter]

Really makes you wonder whether the Chinese were under estimating the cost to produce these models back then or our now trying to gauge what price the customer can be pushed to.

Keep in mind this is Australian outline where until recently (last 10 or so years) there was no high quality RTR available, only brass imports and kits. Of course the market place here is a lot smaller hence smaller quantities produced with are usually guaranteed to sell out.

 

Before we all jump to conclusions about the Chinese estimates of production costs:

 

2000 - oil price $20/barrel

2013 - oil price above $100/barrel

 

5 times increase.  So the raw material to make the plastic pellets has increased 5 fold, therefore the likely increase in the plastic pellets will be at least 6 fold (production losses and costs or production)

 

Chinese labour costs have increased by ?  But they have more than doubled in the last 5 years - so extrapolating (always dangerous) over 13 years would suggest a number around 5 fold.

 

Cost of shipping out of China has increased dramatically over 13 years as the demand for Chinese produced consumer goods has increased and the balance of trade in versus out has become almost one sided (all out - expensive, and very little in - cheap)

 

The five and half fold increase in cost is therefore hardly surprising, indeed virtually predictable .

[APOLLO]

China will implode one day, then we will have nowt.

 

Brit15

[Jol Wilkinson]

Really makes you wonder whether the Chinese were under estimating the cost to produce these models back then or our now trying to gauge what price the customer can be pushed to.

Keep in mind this is Australian outline where until recently (last 10 or so years) there was no high quality RTR available, only brass imports and kits. Of course the market place here is a lot smaller hence smaller quantities produced with are usually guaranteed to sell out.

Perhaps the dearth of Australian railway products in the past has created a "must get it while it's available" scenario.

 

However, if you introduced products to the UK market at the prices listed in the Newsletter, then I suspect that you would get a very negative reaction. The UK modeller/collector has become very used to what are really quite low prices, often further discounted in a competitive retail market place. 

 

 

China will implode one day, then we will have nowt.

 

Brit15

 

History would seem to show that another "third world economy" will step in to take the place of China. India has already been suggested in other RMWeb threads, as well as the African nations.

 

Take a look at the clothes labels in any retail clothing outlet. India, the Philippines and others are already represented.

[Stanley Melrose]

A couple of years ago I bought a shirt in Canada which was made in Mongolia . . .

 

Shoes from Vietnam and Turkey.

 

Wine from France!

 

Stan

[The Stationmaster]

 

 

However, if you introduced products to the UK market at the prices listed in the Newsletter, then I suspect that you would get a very negative reaction. The UK modeller/collector has become very used to what are really quite low prices, often further discounted in a competitive retail market place. 

 

 

 

I think the UK 'modeller' is going to have to wake up to a different kind of world - the age of cheapo Italian produced models has come and gone, the era of cheaply priced high fidelity Chinese made models is clearly passing, and I think we are in a state of flux regarding the lower fidelity Chinese made models but prices will probably rise.

 

The big factor in all of this is how the various UK brands who buy in from China will begin, or have begun, to position themselves in the marketplace but it is notable that the two largest - Bachmann and Hornby - have already begun to cramp the style of the deep discounters and there can be little doubt that this is a sign both of the times and the future.  That leaves a very simple question and that is will the future of the model railway hobby as far as r-t-r is concerned be dictated by a seemingly price sensitive market which will accept 'toys' as long as they are cheap or by a more discerning market which is prepared to pay but is maybe likely to reduce the volume of its purchases and become far more selective possibly demanding even higher standards?

 

Meanwhile the likes of LNWR modeller will simply carry on as they have long done building much of what they use for themselves but supplied by a largely UK based cottage industry which itself is facing continuously rising costs.

[APOLLO]

I've mentioned before the Chinese are skilled and adept to manufacturing small, complex, labour intensive items like model trains. I don't think Indians, Turks etc will be quite up to the mark. They will have to start their skill base from scratch in the case of model railways. I may be wrong, we will see.

 

Perhaps Hornby will implode before China (I sure hope not), If they can't get the goods to sell, cash flow positive etc, the wolf is at the door rather quickly these days.

 

Its a complex subject. I think many factors will combine to put the brakes on and probably reverse the recent head on trend towards globalisation. WE (the UK) could benefit from this in many areas of production IF we get good leadership (industrial & political), which I very much doubt.

 

Brit15

[Oldddudders]

I think my first Chinese-made loco was an HO Life-Like Proto 2000 BL2, which started to be sold in 1989. The detailing was a cut above that of contemporary US-made models at that price-point, and marked a new beginning for Life-Like, previously seen as toy makers, with very approximate models in HO scale. The fact that 24 years later the Chinese are much more expensive, are having capacity/skill issues and that other, more lucrative manufacture is leaving model railways in the shade is not surprising.

 

In the wake of World War 2 Japan was in a huge mess, yet 25 years later they were dominating world markets in cameras and heading that way for cars. Now, many other SE Asian countries are competing successfully with similar products, or are undertaking manufacture for Japanese firms. Your Nikon or Canon DSLR was probably made in Thailand or China.

 

China is reaching a point where others will surely rise to rival their skills, initially on price, later on competence. I do not expect UK to get a serious look-in in the foreseeable future.

[Jol Wilkinson]

I think the UK 'modeller' is going to have to wake up to a different kind of world - the age of cheapo Italian produced models has come and gone, the era of cheaply priced high fidelity Chinese made models is clearly passing, and I think we are in a state of flux regarding the lower fidelity Chinese made models but prices will probably rise.

 

The big factor in all of this is how the various UK brands who buy in from China will begin, or have begun, to position themselves in the marketplace but it is notable that the two largest - Bachmann and Hornby - have already begun to cramp the style of the deep discounters and there can be little doubt that this is a sign both of the times and the future.  That leaves a very simple question and that is will the future of the model railway hobby as far as r-t-r is concerned be dictated by a seemingly price sensitive market which will accept 'toys' as long as they are cheap or by a more discerning market which is prepared to pay but is maybe likely to reduce the volume of its purchases and become far more selective possibly demanding even higher standards?

 

Meanwhile the likes of LNWR modeller will simply carry on as they have long done building much of what they use for themselves but supplied by a largely UK based cottage industry which itself is facing continuously rising costs.

Mike,

 

indeed UK kit manufacturers are facing continually rising costs, but the one area where the Chinese apparently had the major advantage - low wages - is decreasing and is probably also rather more stable in the UK. So I would expect kit prices to rise more slowly that RTR products, unless the likes of Hornby move their manufacturing to lower cost base economies.

 

Relative cost of living indices make interesting reading, especially this one (I just love the name) http://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index   Average wages in India are about one third of those in China, although it's always open to debate how up to date/accurate these statistics are. We have overlooked is Eastern Europe and South America too as possible manufacturing bases.

 

If the big consumer product manufacturers move their production to another area, they will pave the way for the likes of Hornby to follow suit.

 

Jol

[Paul Cram]

One worrying aspect of the proposed delivery dates is the volume all predicted to arrive at the same time. If it all arrives can anyone afford to buy everything they want? What impact will that have on Hornby's cash flow?

[bigherb]

One worrying aspect of the proposed delivery dates is the volume all predicted to arrive at the same time. If it all arrives can anyone afford to buy everything they want? What impact will that have on Hornby's cash flow?

That's one of my worries I've over £1000 (been over £1400 at one point) on pre orders some of it for over 4 years for Bachmann models I don't want it all too arrive at once. It has stopped me buying a lot of the off the shelf models lately.

[The Stationmaster]

One worrying aspect of the proposed delivery dates is the volume all predicted to arrive at the same time. If it all arrives can anyone afford to buy everything they want? What impact will that have on Hornby's cash flow?

I don't know about Hornby but I do know that it is not popular with retailers - they have lost what could have been budgetted to be a cash flow through various parts of the year and which would be partially used to finance the next lot of purchases; because of the quantity all arriving at once they face the risk of us, the end customers, cancelling what we have pre-ordered because we can't afford to buy it all at once plus many folk are in any case facing the big spending season in the run up to Christmas and might not have the money to spare.  

 

Add to that a gap in income which might affect the retailers' ability to pay Hornby's invoices quickly which in turn impacts on the discount they get which in turn hits their margins because they might lose sales if they don't offer some sort of discount.  And that can be made even worse if product arrives in dribs & drabs which results in them being rationed which in turn might drive customers to seek alternative suppliers.  Net result - in the poorest cases - is that yet another model shop closes and Hornby add another line to their report noticing the decline of individual shops - without adding one of the reasons why that is happening.

 

Potential result of that is Hornby looking to increase web sales and sales through concessions - which many people espouse because it is all at RRP and they want 'bargains' - hence sales figures could be distorted which in turn influences future model plans or target marketing.  On the other hand Hornby get things nicely settled for their 2014 model year and everything arrives more or less on time but after teh post Christmas rush is over little actually sells in the first couple of months because there is so much suddenly appearing all at once.  So whatever they do is wrong - again.

[stewartingram]

One worrying aspect of the proposed delivery dates is the volume all predicted to arrive at the same time. If it all arrives can anyone afford to buy everything they want? What impact will that have on Hornby's cash flow?

Hornby's cash flow is directly related to sales to retailers (ie trade sales). Retailers sell to the likes of us who visit their shops (or websites). So short term, if the trade sales still happen, good news for Hornby. But when the retailers next put their orders in, and having a stock in that hasn't sold too well, then their orders will drop off. No point in overstocking shop shelves. That is when Hornby next feel the pinch.

 

Stewart

[Coombe Barton]

 No point in overstocking shop shelves. That is when Hornby next feel the pinch.

 

Stewart

 

Isn't this what has been happening for years?