Simon Says

[Revolution Ben]

Hello all,

 

I'm not an OO modeller but I think that a lot of the arguments in this thread are relevant to other scales.

 

I think it seems to be generally accepted that for the British market, price is more of an issue than it is elsewhere.

 

I wonder whether this is down to the basic culture around playing with trains.  In Europe (and I have some experience of the Italian market) model railways - whether collecting or operating - are considered a skilled,worthwhile and respected pastime.  So those who take part are prepared to pay adult prices for grown up products.  Here on the other hand it is generally the case that model railways tend to be regarded as somewhat childish and, however unfair, maybe deep down that attitude influences British modellers who in turn feel they cannot justify paying more than toy-train prices?

 

Furthermore, I wonder if it's stretching things to suggest that general craft hobbies - model-making, woodworking, home electronics etc - are more respected in those European countries where there remains a thriving manufacturing base?  Certainly I have never understood why it's "cool" in Britain to watch 22 people kicking or hitting a piece of round leather, and "uncool" to celebrate brilliant works of engineering.  Incidentally, I enjoy watching football.  And cricket.  But I also like modelling trains!

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

[Ron Ron Ron]

A few too many disparaging remarks about Bachmann for me in SK Blog post that I can't help think smack of sour grapes.....

 

Whether it's sour grapes or not, I think we should do well to remember that the SK Blog is a marketing tool and will not only be used to gauge and counsel opinion, but could also be used to try and "convince" people in various ways, or will be following an agenda.

The strong hint at the corporate holding of hands up to admit they may have got it wrong, is heavily tempered by the finger pointing at their major competitor. As in "Well they're doing it too..."

 

I don't read any meaningful retraction from the "design rubbish clever" line; only a mild retraction. In other words they need to be cleverer at conning the punters. .....or am I being too cynical?

 

 

 

........I thought the whole point of Railroad was to cater for those who want a lower price bracket while using the main range to offer highly details models.

Indeed, but RailRoad fitting in with the so called "main range" has turned out to be an ill-conceived mess.

Some would put that down to terrible marketing.......... !

 

 

.

[Anglian]

All fair points. However, I don't think good marketing is well grounded by commenting on what their competitor (who is clearly rattling them) is or isn't doing. If Hornby want to be the market leader then they have to behave like one in all respects and that excludes sniping at the opposition.

[Ozexpatriate]

I think we should do well to remember that the SK Blog is a marketing tool and will not only be used to gauge and counsel opinion, but could also be used to try and "convince" people in various ways, or will be following an agenda.

Agreed. It has an inbound and an outbound marketing function.

 

The strong hint at the corporate holding of hands up to admit they may have got it wrong, is heavily tempered by the finger pointing at their major competitor. As in "Well they're doing it too..."

Nevertheless, the statement is accurate. Both suppliers have similar problems with manufacturing in terms of both costs and production availability. Yes Hornby's problems were worse, and Bachmann Branch-Line communicated better.

 

I don't read any meaningful retraction from the "design rubbish clever" line; only a mild retraction. In other words they need to be cleverer at conning the punters. .....or am I being too cynical?

Yes, perhaps a bit too cynical. Mr. Kohler in his previous blog made a very specific reference to "design clever" and his legacy at Hornby. He has a fine line to walk. He is freed of some of the manacles of his old job, but not completely. With his present course and speed he appears to be more candid than he may have felt able to be before.

 

I am enjoying this change.

[Andy Y]

I don't quite get this. If what GBL does is so outrageous, why doesn't Bachmann and Hornby do something about it? They hardly lack the resources to take legal action. If these companies doesn't view themselves as victims, why should I?

 

 

I can't claim to offer any representation for any party in saying this but I have had conversations, not just on this issue but previous debatable elements and they could end up spending a lot of money (which nobody has at present) chasing ghosts and shadows over who may have carried out any breach with unclear consequential losses and arbitrary opinions whether something is a copy if it differs in some respect. Look at how much money Apple and Samsung chuck at lawyers with no clear outcomes as an extreme example.

 

I know annoyance has been caused to those who we purport to support and it's alright saying that it hasn't cost the originator of the intellectual property any damage but, averaged out, it means the buyers of the product may spend less on other elements of the hobby so the loss potentially lies elsewhere, all because someone thinks it's OK to do it and a blind eye is turned to it by the beneficiary buyer.

[coniston branch]

I can't claim to offer any representation for any party in saying this but I have had conversations, not just on this issue but previous debatable elements and they could end up spending a lot of money (which nobody has at present) chasing ghosts and shadows over who may have carried out any breach with unclear consequential losses and arbitrary opinions whether something is a copy if it differs in some respect. Look at how much money Apple and Samsung chuck at lawyers with no clear outcomes as an extreme example.

 

I know annoyance has been caused to those who we purport to support and it's alright saying that it hasn't cost the originator of the intellectual property any damage but, averaged out, it means the buyers of the product may spend less on other elements of the hobby so the loss potentially lies elsewhere, all because someone thinks it's OK to do it and a blind eye is turned to it by the beneficiary buyer.

I only bought the A4, so I must have cost them money  

[Andy Hayter]

We need to be careful not to read too much into any given profit/loss unless one wants to do a lot of research.

 

For example, one can argue Hornby is having difficulty not because of prices, but rather because of a lack of product to sell at any price.  Its hard to bring revenue in when there is nothing in the warehouse to ship to retailers.  Furthermore, as is often the case the new management is taking the opportunity to go through the balance sheet and find any and all possible negatives to put on the first statement to "blame" the previous management - write-off on the Italian business, costs of getting rid of the old executives, etc.

 

As for Kader, while they are still losing money in 2013 on their toys/trains business the loss is actually substantially less than in 2012 (HK$55 million vs HK$90 million), though certainly circumstances in China remain a challenge for everybody.

 

 

I agree totally that the number of items that can be brought to sale has a major effect on what needs to be sold.

 

So, just for fun, I have created a parallel modellers universe where in 2013 there were no supply problems.

 

In another thread I estimated that Hornby purchased around 21m£ stock from China in 2011.  The 2013 business reports of both Kader and Hornby have now much less detail so we need to make a guess on purchases in 2013.  Since 2011 inflation will have increased prices, but it seems that availability of product has fallen so in the purchases from China by Hornby were probably still around 21m£. 

Hornby made a 45% margin on purchases but still made a loss of 4.5m £ (and I am assuming that the entire loss was in UK model railways - almost certainly wrong but we have no further detail).   So in my parallel universe of no supply issues, in order to break even Hornby would need to have purchased 35m£ of goods to eliminate the losses.  However with free supply breaking even is not an acceptable business result, so I have assumed that there is a 10% profit of purchases (note purchases and not sales to traders and certainly not sales to customers).  So to create this level of mild profitability Hornby would have to have purchased 39m£ stock from China.  This represents and increase of 55% sales of the same mix as actually happened in 2013.  So the question is, with free supply, would we have bought 55% more models even at 2013 prices?  In some cases I could see it, but overall I am struggling to believe that our wallets were big enough to accommodate these extra sales.

 

Of course the extra sales could be achieved by bringing out new models - but new models attract new costs for design, tooling, R&D etc.  So the sales would have to be even higher.  Again are our wallets big enough?

 

Against that background I can see no way that Hornby could be profitable in my parallel universe at 2013 pricing.

[knobhead]

I can't claim to offer any representation for any party in saying this but I have had conversations, not just on this issue but previous debatable elements and they could end up spending a lot of money (which nobody has at present) chasing ghosts and shadows over who may have carried out any breach with unclear consequential losses and arbitrary opinions whether something is a copy if it differs in some respect. Look at how much money Apple and Samsung chuck at lawyers with no clear outcomes as an extreme example.

 

I know annoyance has been caused to those who we purport to support and it's alright saying that it hasn't cost the originator of the intellectual property any damage but, averaged out, it means the buyers of the product may spend less on other elements of the hobby so the loss potentially lies elsewhere, all because someone thinks it's OK to do it and a blind eye is turned to it by the beneficiary buyer.

 

 

Well, I'm not saying what GBL does is squeaky clean, but few things are. The GBL models are supposedly made somewhere in Eastern Europe and to be honest, that sits better with me (even if it involves piracy) than buying something made in China where our money is, in part, funding an oppressive dictatorship. I wouldn't buy anything made in China, if I was wealthy enough to avoid it, Sadly I'm not.

 

Regards,

 

Stefan

[Andy Y]

 The GBL models are supposedly made somewhere in Eastern Europe 

 

I'm not so sure that's the case.

[S.A.C Martin]

I can't claim to offer any representation for any party in saying this but I have had conversations, not just on this issue but previous debatable elements and they could end up spending a lot of money (which nobody has at present) chasing ghosts and shadows over who may have carried out any breach with unclear consequential losses and arbitrary opinions whether something is a copy if it differs in some respect. Look at how much money Apple and Samsung chuck at lawyers with no clear outcomes as an extreme example.

 

I know annoyance has been caused to those who we purport to support and it's alright saying that it hasn't cost the originator of the intellectual property any damage but, averaged out, it means the buyers of the product may spend less on other elements of the hobby so the loss potentially lies elsewhere, all because someone thinks it's OK to do it and a blind eye is turned to it by the beneficiary buyer.

 

Please itemise where exactly buying these GBL models is going to result in spending less on the hobby elsewhere? That's a very bold statement and just throwing it out there without providing some evidence is somewhat unfair on those who have bought in.

 

All of the models are based on RTR models so far as I can. If you want a working model you're not going to start with a GBL body shell unless. If you use the models for spare parts, chances are you're going to still use Hornby/Bachmann parts and thus buy into the spares industry. Case in point:

 

1. Tender body is from the GBL 4472 model.
2. The locomotive in front is from Hornby (Railroad Mallard), bought through Hattons.
3. Handrail knobs and brass wire are from Nairnshire Modelling Supplies.
4. The tender frames are Hornby and are from Peter's Spares.
5. The wheel sets were a bulk purchase a while back from East Kent I believe. 

So that's putting money into the hobby through modelling, not taking it out - and Hornby themselves still get a purchase as the base model for motorising comes from them, as does the majority of the tender bits and bobs as spares.

 

It's all very well moralising about "damage" the GBL range purportedly creates to the industry but as far as I can see those who are using them for modelling are putting their pennies back into the hobby, not out of it. So hardly destroying the cottage industries or the big companies concerned. My A4 tender is but one example and I know on the GBL thread a number of others are looking at Comet etched chassis and other similar products for their builds. 

 

Spending less on other elements of the hobby indeed - we're spending more and being creative out of it.

 

[S.A.C Martin]

No wonder there's a spares shortage, you've been stockpiling them!!         

 

Perhaps…! I have stockpiled a lot of spares in the tender department specifically. Enough to build around 50 LNER eight wheel tenders of varying types, all using spares from Hornby approved suppliers, and of course GBL body shells for 1928 corridor and non corridor streamlined variants. It would never have been possible to do this waiting on eBay purchases of whole tenders or complete models and splitting them alone.

[knobhead]

I'm not so sure that's the case.

 

 

I could be wrong. I'm weak and selfish and would buy them even if they came from China.

 

Regards,

 

Stefan

[Andy Y]

 

So that's putting money into the hobby through modelling, not taking it out 

 

That may be the case with some that are sold but the vast majority will stay as they are; shelf ornaments. Many people express that their budget is squeezed these days so they've bought something cheap; maybe they'd have bought a wagon instead? Of course I can't itemise that and it's a silly call to try and suggest I do so but there's a fair chance that wagon may have come from a trader.

 

Great; you've spent some money on extra bits but I'd wager you're not typical of the majority of buyers Simon.

[S.A.C Martin]

That may be the case with some that are sold but the vast majority will stay as they are; shelf ornaments. Many people express that their budget is squeezed these days so they've bought something cheap; maybe they'd have bought a wagon instead? Of course I can't itemise that and it's a silly call to try and suggest I do so but there's a fair chance that wagon may have come from a trader.

 

Great; you've spent some money on extra bits but I'd wager you're not typical of the majority of buyers Simon.

 

I appreciate your point of view Andy but are these models being sold in the same retail outlets as RTR 00 wagons? In fact, I would go so far as to say the likelihood of these models being sold in the same shop as any 00 item seems incredibly unlikely to me.

 

I take your point about buying a wagon instead - but then people who are going to buy them as ornaments aren't modellers. They're collectors and probably outside of the hobby. Modellers need wagons and buy those appropriate for needs outside of their locomotive requirements. These models are cheap certainly but they need a lot of work to come up to scratch (and then some - the Mallard body shell I used has the wrong number of washout plugs on side. Not an easy fix).

 

Playing devil's advocate (and I apologise for this because I have been doing this a lot on this thread today!) these models might induce someone to go and buy a train set because these plastic ones don't run. If they entice modellers to do some modelling - as we've seen on RMweb - great. Fantastic, that's what we've been crying out for, for years.

 

It does make me wonder though - if a magazine artwork can produce a model of Mallard which can be sold for £3.99 which includes cab glazing, separately fitted handrails, bucket seats and similar, are the major manufacturers missing a trick by not producing something similar of their own?

 

Dapol have sold plastic kits, ex-Airfix for donkey's years and some knock down RTR coaches recently. Perhaps this an avenue to be exploited, if the timing was right and the people behind it were right?

 

Who knows really. All I know is that Hornby's strategies the last decade or so simply don't look to have worked in one specific area. The Railroad range is the budget range and how many of this year's models are available? I was in my favourite local model shop today and noted that all of the Railroad items are 2011 or 2012. None from 2013 and none from 2014 thus far. Hornby need to get products on shelves, or go under.

[Andy Y]

 In fact, I would go so far as to say the likelihood of these models being sold in the same shop as any 00 item seems incredibly unlikely to me.

 

 

Accepted, but the money comes out of potentially the same wallet.

 

They're collectors and probably outside of the hobby. 

 

Accepted, but I'd expect a percentage to wonder about the origins. It's probably a very small one though.

 

 

 

So is it ethical for the designers of the partwork to base their wares on Hornby's (and Bachmann's)? Of course not. 

 

So all we're debating is the impact; not the morality.

[S.A.C Martin]

 

So all we're debating is the impact; not the morality.

 

 

Fair enough Andy.

[Miss Prism]

It does make me wonder though - if a magazine artwork can produce a model of Mallard which can be sold for £3.99 which includes cab glazing, separately fitted handrails, bucket seats and similar, are the major manufacturers missing a trick by not producing something similar of their own?

Kinda puts 'design clever' into perspective, doesn't it?

 

 

[andyman7]

It does make me wonder though - if a magazine artwork can produce a model of Mallard which can be sold for £3.99 which includes cab glazing, separately fitted handrails, bucket seats and similar, are the major manufacturers missing a trick by not producing something similar of their own?

.

Firstly, the £3.99 is a loss leader. And, of course, if you save on things like design, research and original drawings by copying existing models you can cut a chunk out of the production cost, but it's hardly sustainable for the long term health of the industry. A bit like when the YMRV coaches came out at £3.99, and suddenly the hue and cry is that we're being ripped off paying £20-£30 for coaches.  ,

[micklner]

Some of the GBL comments are becoming bizarre . How does a cheap non working costing a maximum of £9 really affect anybody?? Cant see the logic at all in real terms. £9 is about two or three (if your really lucky) pints of beer . Hardly compares with a £120 Loco.

 

Bachmann are charging around £14.50 for the new LNER Fish van. Personally I wouldnt consider them at that price. I will simply wait for secondhand ebay examples.

If you are looking for a culprit look no further then E BAY huge amount of items are sold daily Hornby at al get zero from this .

Why is ebay selling so much ?? because you cannot get new items because it doesnt exist or the companies think they are above us and refuse to sell  e.g Bachmann wont sell the new V2 and A4 chassis as seperate items.

[frobisher]

I don't quite get this. If what GBL does is so outrageous, why doesn't Bachmann and Hornby do something about it? They hardly lack the resources to take legal action. If these companies doesn't view themselves as victims, why should I?

Because it's not cost effective to pursue in all likelihood, especially when you start dealing with the legal systems of two or more countries, one of which has a rather lax attitude in regards copyright.

[Smiffy2]

I'm fairly convinced that the people who will buy GBL and then use them as shelf ornaments without modification were unlikely ever to spend much money with Hornby or Bachmann.

Mine are all being messed around in some way, so sellers of paint, putty, blades, decals, detail parts and so on all benefit.

[Neil]

A question about GBL if I may, as until now I've been unaware of it.

 

Have the locos been produced by directly copying (taking moulds from, scanning) the products of Hornby or Bachmann, or have the designers of the GBL locos had the Hornby or Bachmann models as one (bit not the only) of their points of reference?

 

Ethically there's a huge difference between the two.

[cheesysmith]

I have seen someone mention the Dapol CKD models and people bemoaning the price rise of model coming from china due to wage rises over there. So my question is why don't Hornby make there own CKD version of models they are making and release them under the air fix banner? Would this not reduce the cost by missing out the assembly cost on the Chinese production lines? It might even open the door for more people to enter the hobby at cheaper cost than at present. And with the tails coming for china of the difficulty of staffing the assembly lines and staff poaching to the companies that can pay more, it would reduce a bottle neck in the production and allow some much needed cash flow?

 

My thinking was started by looking at the HAA wagon, the original version now to be sold under the railroad banner. This being mainly self coloured plastic and clip together would be a ideal candidate for this kind of CKD sales.

[Talltim]

Think the implication is that we look for quality at a cheap price. Went food shopping with wife earlier and the whole place is full of posters saying this is cheaper, or so much off that or much less if you buy two etc. So the marketing is come here and get a bargain, rather than pay more, it's better.

That depends where you shop. The cut price supermarkets (Lidl, Aldi etc) are doing well. The upmarket ones (Waitrose, M&S) are doing well. It's the ones in the middle that are suffering. People either want as cheap as possible or (perceived) quality at a premium price

[Fenman]

That depends where you shop. The cut price supermarkets (Lidl, Aldi etc) are doing well. The upmarket ones (Waitrose, M&S) are doing well. It's the ones in the middle that are suffering. People either want as cheap as possible or (perceived) quality at a premium price

 

Not necessarily: maybe they just want to shop at places where they don't get horseflesh in their meat pies?

 

Paul