DJM Dave Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Hi everyone, As of 12.00 midday today, Monday 18th August, the crowd sourcing link has gone live and here it is; http://www.kernowmodelrailcentre.com/page/74/DJ_Models_Class_71_Project However, please note i have decided not to go through the 'Kickstarter' system for this model and Kernow Model Centre has kindly stepped in here, as some of the 'hoops' i had to go through were drawing the launch of the program back. Once the fund has reached the desired amount of 'pledges' then i shall arrange a scanning day with the loco in question where you can come to Barrow Hill and view the process of laser scanning and ask questions etc. This open day date will be mentioned here and in the press. To 'pledge' please click on a photograph in the link for the livery / running number of your choice and you can do this as many times as you wish. Cheers Dave Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSpencer Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Take your time. I am still trying to figure out whether to get: 1) just a blue one 2) just a green one or 3) a blue one and a green one Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Dave Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 Ah, but point '3' gives you the best of both worlds where you won't have the mental anguish of deciding between 1 or 2 ;-) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
159220 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 I find the idea of using Kickstarter for model railways very interesting. Please do correct me, but, if it is correct, the infomation reported else where on RMWeb is that a loco 'tooling' costs £70,000 (Realtrack and Rapido) plus a production run costs the same (Rapido). So we would be looking at a £140,000 cost to 'set up'. For a retail price we need to add 20% VAT and no doubt take a wage and business costs out of that, say 12% fair (I make a 8% return on my business interests and 4% is office cost)? Thus to get a loco to market I would estimate based on information on RMWeb to be around £184,800. At a retail price of £125.00 you would need to sell 1,478 locos. As there are 4 variants thats 369 orders per livery needed to cover the investiment. That seems shockingly favourable! I had to work this out as at first I just could not figure how this would ever happen! Am I right? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Dave Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Hi, Not quite and I think that you have to look at at least 20% added to that due to the May 1st price rises in China. Also, it depends on the loco and or detail involved. Then there is VAT to add to that, so it's starting to add up. Then that's not including art work, boxes, instructions, even box labels, shipping, import duty, or even samples sent to the uk which will cost, plus the tax on those from the shipper. With the class 71, I'm being a tad altruistic because obviously the short term pain in the lower amount sold, will pay the dividend in later runs 12 further months down the road. It's cheaper to go with aluminium or soft steel tools, but you only get limited numbers from those tools before they become useless, which is why you get some manufacturers offer models with limited quantities, because if you can sell 3000 models using soft steel, and it's a lot less than hard steel, your profit margin is considerable bigger than if you bought tooling that would last years and years. Cheers Dave Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Dave Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Hi everyone, I have answered a few questions from Kickstarter about the project and I hope to hear from them very soon. Please bear with me on this. Cheers Dave Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Phatbob Posted July 30, 2014 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 30, 2014 Red leader, bearing with you. ;-) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
charliepetty Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Yes about right, but you forgot: Freight, Import Duty, Certification, Samples air freight costs, shipping cost within China to Port, Customs Clearance/Handling, probable 100+ phonecalls, frustration and Interest Charges on any loan, warrants/non working failures (Not Sellable), advertising costs & £6.00 per hour wages. I am sure Dave likes to earn a reasonable wage too! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSpencer Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Wait another 10 years and we'll be able to 3D print off an entire tooling for a loco. Another 50 before we can print the entire model itself including the electric motor and very fine DCC circuitry. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wombatofludham Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Looking at some of those figures, and reading Dave's and Charlie's comments, I suspect a "Kickstarter" for our notional "north of the Thames" electric would be looking for about £250,000, say £170 a chuck for 1500. Not too horrendous given recent price inflation in modelling. Just out of curiosity, would splitting 1500 into three different livery options add appreciably to the price? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerald Henriksen Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Looking at some of those figures, and reading Dave's and Charlie's comments, I suspect a "Kickstarter" for our notional "north of the Thames" electric would be looking for about £250,000, say £170 a chuck for 1500. Not too horrendous given recent price inflation in modelling. Just out of curiosity, would splitting 1500 into three different livery options add appreciably to the price? Shouldn't be too bad, the price problem only comes if you want very small runs of a livery. However, as fun as this speculation is, it is all guesswork. If anyone wants to seriously go about this then they need to do some legwork themselves and consider what they think the market is, and what they think a reasonable number of liveries are, consider what happens to the tooling afterwards (is it thrown away, kept, etc), how much of they work can they do themselves, and so on. Then, if they are serious about it they can contact Dave* (or anyone else) privately about getting a confidential estimate as to what it would cost, and thus the number can be run and perhaps proceed appropriately. * please be considerate of Dave and anyone else and only go about this if you really intend to try and make it work. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wombatofludham Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Shouldn't be too bad, the price problem only comes if you want very small runs of a livery. However, as fun as this speculation is, it is all guesswork. If anyone wants to seriously go about this then they need to do some legwork themselves and consider what they think the market is, and what they think a reasonable number of liveries are, consider what happens to the tooling afterwards (is it thrown away, kept, etc), how much of they work can they do themselves, and so on. Then, if they are serious about it they can contact Dave* (or anyone else) privately about getting a confidential estimate as to what it would cost, and thus the number can be run and perhaps proceed appropriately. * please be considerate of Dave and anyone else and only go about this if you really intend to try and make it work. Hi Gerald, That is exactly what I'm thinking of doing, once I've got more time post September, it just would be useful to get some finger in the air ideas of rough target budgets for now so we can put some flesh onto initial expressions of interest. If the target budget would mean a model in excess of say £180 I think it's a non-starter, but if it turned out to be closer to £150 it could make a difference. I'm also a member of the AC electric loco group and I've put up the suggestion of a possible "Kickstarter" fund for an 86/0-AL6 on their modelling forum to see if there would be any interest from that quarter, so I'm looking at seeing the potential broad market reach initially. But I do have a plan and if there is an indication of broad support fully intend to do more work on the idea. [edit] Of course, leaving it until after September will avoid any conflicts with this Kickstarter scheme, I wouldn't want to interfere with this project or steal any thunder, although the two markets are vastly different. It will also allow any lessons from this project/initiative to be taken on board. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSpencer Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 It's cheaper to go with aluminium or soft steel tools, but you only get limited numbers from those tools before they become useless, which is why you get some manufacturers offer models with limited quantities, because if you can sell 3000 models using soft steel, and it's a lot less than hard steel, your profit margin is considerable bigger than if you bought tooling that would last years and years. Cheers Dave When then make a hard steel tool, do they start with soft steel and then harden it or do the make it directly from hard steel? The latter would indeed cost much more to cut the tools. However the former should not add much more to the cost as you would need to say place in a very hot carbon gas oven for around 24 hours. It would harden only the surface, but frankly that is all we are after as that is only part likely to wear out. Or maybe chrome plate it although that would be on the surface will Carbon would actually sink into it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerald Henriksen Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 That is exactly what I'm thinking of doing, once I've got more time post September, it just would be useful to get some finger in the air ideas of rough target budgets for now so we can put some flesh onto initial expressions of interest. If the target budget would mean a model in excess of say £180 I think it's a non-starter, but if it turned out to be closer to £150 it could make a difference. I understand your desire to have numbers first, but the problem is that you are then trying to make a decision based on faulty data. You are not going to get accurate numbers on a public forum like this using vague proposals. The numbers will depend on the model and how complicated the molds will be, assembly issues, etc. Would you really want to cancel the idea because you think the numbers are too high based on these guesses when it may well have been viable? You know the model you want to do, which is a good first start. So spend time considering the type of decisions that will have to be made like how much detail, what paint schemes (and how complicated are they), what variations if any on the prototype to allow for, what target price you want to aim for as an upper limit, and anything else you can think of. Then, as I said, you can approach Dave or others with what you want to try and do and they can help guide you initially with their experience, and eventually even get down to exact numbers if it looks good. If you are really feeling unsure, then find the appropriate area of RMweb and start a discussion and/or polls to find out what others think about target prices, detail level, or anything other than trying to get costs which can only be provided in private with a detailed list of what you want. Good luck. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wombatofludham Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 I understand your desire to have numbers first, but the problem is that you are then trying to make a decision based on faulty data. You are not going to get accurate numbers on a public forum like this using vague proposals. The numbers will depend on the model and how complicated the molds will be, assembly issues, etc. Would you really want to cancel the idea because you think the numbers are too high based on these guesses when it may well have been viable? You know the model you want to do, which is a good first start. So spend time considering the type of decisions that will have to be made like how much detail, what paint schemes (and how complicated are they), what variations if any on the prototype to allow for, what target price you want to aim for as an upper limit, and anything else you can think of. Then, as I said, you can approach Dave or others with what you want to try and do and they can help guide you initially with their experience, and eventually even get down to exact numbers if it looks good. If you are really feeling unsure, then find the appropriate area of RMweb and start a discussion and/or polls to find out what others think about target prices, detail level, or anything other than trying to get costs which can only be provided in private with a detailed list of what you want. Good luck. We're at serious risk of derailing this thread which is about the Class 71 Kickstarter project, but for the avoidance of doubt: 1 I had no intention of starting any Kickstarter appeal without having a serious idea of a target figure for a complete project through to the initial production run, based on expert opinion, probably if he's willing to help from Dave. I am not so stupid as to go into something like this at half-cock on a rough guestimate 2 However, before investing any time in this, particularly involving manufacturers if they are willing to help, it is reasonable to see if, based on his experience, a ball park figure could be obtained from Dave, or Charlie for that matter, to see if there is any point even starting to work out the details. I've worked on many capital projects in the past and every project starts with a best guess ball park figure based on experience to see if it affordable. You then do detailed budgetary work to fix a better, more accurate figure, add in contingency, then decide at that point if it meets value for money tests. At this time we are at the "has this got the potential" stage not the "launch the appeal stage based on a detailed spec" stage. I'm not expecting a detailed cost breakdown on which to set a fixed pledge figure at this stage, but I trust Dave or Charlie to have the experience to suggest a ball-park figure that would allow us to get a very crude cost per pledge figure in mind - and I caveat that comment with the understanding we are dealing with China where normal accountancy rules and contracts are best described as inscrutable - so that I can decide whether I can feel justified in asking already busy people like Dave or Charlie (or others if anyone knows anyone willing to help) to work out some more detailed estimates to start the process of the Kickstarter. Basically, I don't want to pester Dave who is fully committed with his own stuff, by asking for more detailed estimates for something that is an idea at present if he can say at this point "your guestimate of £250k feels right". On that basis I would be happy to discuss in more detail with him or others whether they would be willing to put some more meat on that figure, and be able to work with us on bringing a model to market if we get the pledges, so we can go to Kickstarter. If he says it's way off, far too low, then I don't think we will realistically get the price down to what the market, based on comments made here and elsewhere about recent model announcements, will accept. I would be willing to ditch the idea if we couldn't get the pledge figure to a reasonable amount as clearly there has been extensive discussion on these boards as to what people are willing to pay for a model, which is pretty representative. I feel it is reasonable and prudent to get a feel for the typical cost of bringing a new model to market, before asking a busy manufacturer if they are willing to give us more detail in sufficient quantity and detail to put it into Kickstarter. However, this thread is about the 71, so we should take this elsewhere if necessary.. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerald Henriksen Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 1 I had no intention of starting any Kickstarter appeal without having a serious idea of a target figure for a complete project through to the initial production run, based on expert opinion, probably if he's willing to help from Dave. I am not so stupid as to go into something like this at half-cock on a rough guestimate My apologies, I wasn't trying to indicate that you weren't serious about this, or that you wouldn't do the necessary prep work before following through. It was my fault for trying to both reply specifically to you while at the same time to anyone else who is thinking of doing this for their pet project. My key point though is that you cannot expect to get even the rough figure you want in a public forum, because while I certainly don't speak for Dave or anyone else, they can't provide a figure (accurate enough for what you need) publicly that others will then try to use for entirely different models or any other reasons. You do need to take this up privately with Dave or whoever you choose to use. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
159220 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Hi, Not quite and I think that you have to look at at least 20% added to that due to the May 1st price rises in China. Also, it depends on the loco and or detail involved. Then there is VAT to add to that, so it's starting to add up. Then that's not including art work, boxes, instructions, even box labels, shipping, import duty, or even samples sent to the uk which will cost, plus the tax on those from the shipper. With the class 71, I'm being a tad altruistic because obviously the short term pain in the lower amount sold, will pay the dividend in later runs 12 further months down the road. It's cheaper to go with aluminium or soft steel tools, but you only get limited numbers from those tools before they become useless, which is why you get some manufacturers offer models with limited quantities, because if you can sell 3000 models using soft steel, and it's a lot less than hard steel, your profit margin is considerable bigger than if you bought tooling that would last years and years. Cheers Dave Yes about right, but you forgot: Freight, Import Duty, Certification, Samples air freight costs, shipping cost within China to Port, Customs Clearance/Handling, probable 100+ phonecalls, frustration and Interest Charges on any loan, warrants/non working failures (Not Sellable), advertising costs & £6.00 per hour wages. I am sure Dave likes to earn a reasonable wage too! Utterly, utterly fascinating! Thank you very much to you both for clearing up my very crude maths on model manufacturing. I had a suspecision that it would not be that simple! I would of never thought you have to pay VAT on what your buying as well as the consumer later. I also find it highly amusing that the Chinese charge you postage to send you samples. Surely that should be complimentary! I wonder shall the use of soft steel, which significantly reduces cost, become a new way of modelling. Making runs of less sort after but still wanted models affordable (where it might even be a struggle to sell 3000 of them)? I shall watch this space, seems exciting times ahead! Well my utter respect and best wishes go out to anyone who sets up a model to manufacturer, especially to you both. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mod4 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I suggest that this topic returns to the original topic of being specific information about the kickstart status and link for the DJ Models class 71 and that any further discussions on other projects should be the topic of a new thread. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southernman46 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Is there any news regarding the Kickstarter status please ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Dave Posted August 6, 2014 Author Share Posted August 6, 2014 Hi Southernman, It's moving along, and got really interesting regarding what can and can't be asked for. It's a steep learning curve that's for sure, but I can, if you will excuse the pun) see the light at the end of the tunnel. One good thing to come out of it is that I'll be able to advise on others possible Kickstarter projects to guide them through the process and suggest possible ways of avoiding the pitfalls. I think that I'll be 'live' by the middle of next week. Sorry for the delay. Cheers Dave Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gardenwall Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 In this case let us hope that the light at the end of the tunnel 'IS' the oncoming train! Patience is a virtue, and another week is not too significant in the likely total timescale. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigherb Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Well I've just ordered my green one. Is there a time limit for how long we reach the minimum pre orders? I hope it would not that long but I don't want to tie up the money for years. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rembrow Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Hi Dave To confirm my post in the other Class 71 thread, I've ordered and paid for the 2 BR (Southern) green versions. Good luck. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Phatbob Posted August 18, 2014 RMweb Gold Share Posted August 18, 2014 Well I've just ordered my green one. Is there a time limit for how long we reach the minimum pre orders? I hope it would not that long but I don't want to tie up the money for years. I don't want to wait too long for my green ones either. I'm afraid that if they're left for too long they might ripen and end up maroon. ;-) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigherb Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I don't want to wait too long for my green ones either. I'm afraid that if they're left for too long they might ripen and end up maroon. ;-) I was more worried about them turning black. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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