Oh Hornby! Where did it all go wrong?

[Il Grifone]

I think we have three of the wretched Die-Soons* stored in the loft. My daughter was impressed by the weird fan effort, but luckily I (and the ridiculous price) managed to put her off. The hand driers which infest public toilets are also b. useless!

 

* I hadn't met this expression before, but can only admire its accuracy!

[Phil Parker]

On 23/02/2022 at 10:54, Nearholmer said:

It would be perfectly possible to make and sell models that run like swiss watches straight out of the box, are bristling with details, and are reasonably repairable and maintainable so as to yield effectively limitless life. As I say, it is done in 0 gauge by a few makers/commissioners who cater to the "old fashioned" segment of the market.

 

Sorry, I'm late to the discussion on this one. Can you list a few brands which run like a Swiss watch, bristle with detail and are repairable? I recall when I edited Ramsay's I found a lot of modern tinplate toy firms producing O gauge to vintage standards, but none who you'd consider matched modern RTR for detai levels.

[Nearholmer]

Lee Marsh springs to mind.

[Miss Prism]

Just now, Nearholmer said:

Lee Marsh springs to mind.

 

Yes indeed, but I didn't think that kind of price range was in the scope of this discussion!

[Nearholmer]

Read back up thread, and you will see that we already chewed over the price implications, and the fact that, in 00 at least, most people seem to prefer to buy four of five locos of the typical current r-t-r kind, rather than one of much longer life expectancy.

 

The situation is that, for a fixed price point, one can have either RAMD with pretty basic detailing, or loads of detailing, but much less RAMD. To turn the or into an and multiplies the price by several fold. Luckily, in 0, one has the or choice, and the and choice on top, whereas in 00 the option to buy high RAMD with low detail doesn’t really exist, so far as I can see.

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Nearholmer

[locomad2]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Read back up thread, and you will see that we already chewed over the price implications, and the fact that, in 00 at least, most people seem to prefer to buy four of five locos of the typical current r-t-r kind, rather than one of much longer life expectancy.

 

The situation is that, for a fixed price point, one can have either RAMD with pretty basic detailing, or loads of detailing, but much less RAMD. To turn the or into an and multiplies the price by several fold. Luckily, in 0, one has the or choice, and the and choice on top, whereas in 00 the option to buy high RAMD with low detail doesn’t really exist, so far as I can see.

 

 

 

My view is you can have both, a really good well detailed locomotive which looks right has excellent chassis/motor/ drive system which is powerful reliable etc etc and doesn't cost the earth

 

Just Hornby at present doesn't offer such, I've paid good money over the last decade for Hornby products and they have all fallen to bits, failed to pull what they claim, suffered mazak rot, etc etc

 

Myself with retirement looming I am going to concentrate on super detailing extisting locomotives mainly Dublo as they have proved to be RAMD products. 

 

The locomotive generally breaks down to body, easy super detailed, and chassis, I've already added to the range by building bodies, old K's, Wills, Airfix kits etc and using Dublo or old triang chassis.

 

I rather spend the time than wasting money on products which don't last a few years, that Simon bloke on the Hornby telly program tells us Hornby trains are purchased for a lifetime  pity they don't last as long.

 

A Dublo WC Barnstaple cost about £5 in 1964, that's been in use for nearly 60 years on 7 layouts with many hours of use and still going strong, Hornby MN lucky to get 3 years use and cost £150 

[mdvle]

17 hours ago, amwells said:

If anything, ‘it’ is going to get worse for Hornby as the new entrants erode their product base further and further.
 

from a quick think (admittedly modern image bias as the market evolves, and focussed on what should be volume sellers in OO):

- HST - firmly Hornby’s. And starting to make changes to keep it at the top. Hornby’s to retain at the moment

 

I would disagree.

 

The changes that Hornby have made to great publicity amount to very little - essentially the only way for Hornby to retain the HST is to do what a competitor would do and tool a new high end version from scratch.

 

Not that Hornby can't/won't do that, but spending money on some minor improvements of the existing tooling really sounds more like conceding to a new entrant and simply arranging to be a reasonable Railroad version.

 

My guess is somebody is working on a new HST.

 

17 hours ago, amwells said:

- 60 - Hornby, no risk of competition unless prices get too silly

 

Look at the Class 31, where Hornby's upcoming model is (currently) £218 vs. £170 for Accurascale.

 

But Hornby's bigger problem isn't price - whether it is the HST, the Class 50, Class 60 or anything else they aren't offering the variety of liveries that both the customers want and the competition is delivering.

 

[mdvle]

On 23/02/2022 at 06:27, Metropolitan H said:

I'm a bit surprised that no one has yet mentioned the shining example of spares supply and compatibility practiced by General Motors Electro-Motive Divison (GM-EMD) on their diesel locomotives. 

 

Perhaps why GM-EMD have become one of - if not THE - most successful diesel locomotive suppliers the world over.

 

EMD is actually a fitting example.

 

What you say was true - until the 1980s.

 

EMD dominated North American railroads up until the 1970s - the SD40-2 crushed anything else with over 4,000 units sold.  But in 1980, facing increased competition from GM, EMD released the SD50 which was plagued with problems and soured the US railroads on EMD - EMD never recovered.

 

Part of the issue was GE offered very attractive financing options which made their product cheaper.

 

So GE started to dominate through the 80s and by the 90s it was almost over for EMD.

 

GM sold off EMD in 2005, at which point it was in a distant 2nd place in the market (GE exited the market in 2019, selling to Wabtec)

 

For an example of how badly the current EMD is doing, in the Tier 4 diesel locomotive market the current EMD has sold 110 locomotives (with only 2 buyers), while GE sold 1092 locomotives.

[kevinlms]

On 24/02/2022 at 00:14, Dunsignalling said:

FYI, the gears generally seem to be OK, its the bit that holds the motor in mesh with them that lets go due to Mazak rot. AIUI, no version (except possibly the most recent iteration of No.120) is immune.

 

I have four Hornby T9s and have (so far) had to fix one of mine (the first No.120) and a BR one for a friend. A second one of mine (BR) seems to be on the way out.

 

Having concluded that they will all fail eventually, from the same cause, I have purchased enough of the (non-Hornby) brass replacement castings to repair each of mine.

 

John

This is a direct result of subcontracting manufacturing of models overseas (I know it's China, but the same would apply no matter who made them). Once you do that, you lose control over quality control and now Hornby has recurring issues with quality of it's Mazak castings.

If it was still done at Margate, they would have control over the quality of the materials used, but now they do not and indeed some of the problems, don't become an issue until outside a reasonable warranty time frame.

[amwells]

5 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

I would disagree.

 

 

I’m not sure you do, not with my overall point, you’re just extending it into the few locos that Hornby do have the current best in class on, which is not unreasonable, in time. 
 

The only thing I would say about the HST is that it obviously requires mkIIIs too - only Oxford have gone close (and they are now owned by Hornby) - Rapido pulled away when thinking about them for the prototype HST - it’s one that needs greater investment if doing the whole train to the same standard. 
 

I do also wonder whether M&A / transaction activity will play a part here at some point - it’s not been uncommon in the past…

[AndrewC]

On 26/02/2022 at 10:31, Dunsignalling said:

Up until yesterday, I'd have agreed with nearly all of that.

 

Then Rapido announced their Highland Railway Jones Goods, with a projected price almost forty quid less than the recently announced, and reasonably comparable, new Black Five from Hornby.

 

The big differential (around 20%) suggests that Rapido might also be capable of improving on Hornby's best diesel and electric models at equal or lower prices, meaning that nothing in the Hornby range may be entirely safe.

 

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet is that Rapido's bread and butter is the North American market which is far bigger than the UK. That gives them far more growth potential and the possibility of reduction in unit cost of production when it comes to drive trains and motors. Rapido also "own" (as far as it is possible to own anything in China), their 2 production facilities. That gives them far more flexibility than nearly every other manufacturer. If X sells out on pre-order they can just shuffle their production schedule a bit and make a few more. Hornby can't as they are at the mercy of buying pre-defined production slots in a third party factory.

 

As a very satisfied Rapido customer, I look at Hornby and think they are in business and quality terms are about 25 years behind. Every one of my Rapido locos comes with a complete exploded parts list with part numbers. A booklet with a brief history of the loco class, dcc instructions, maintenance, etc are all part of the package. I've had to enlist their warranty repair twice. First was a damaged truck (bogie) on a coach. They sent a replacement in the post within a week. (From Canada) The second is a damaged amp circuit on a sound decoder. Emailed them in the morning. Had a response with a warranty form within an hour of their opening time. Complete with a link to a video showing exactly how to get into the loco and remove the decoder. Email the other day saying the replacement decoder is on its way. 

[Phil Parker]

12 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Read back up thread, and you will see that we already chewed over the price implications, and the fact that, in 00 at least, most people seem to prefer to buy four of five locos of the typical current r-t-r kind, rather than one of much longer life expectancy.

 

In which case, the answer to the question posed in the thread title is - "It didn't". Hornby, and every other manufacturer, has decided to deliver people what they want. A highly detailed model at a price that (sort of suits them). Your alternative easy to maintain version still "bristling with detail" yet easy to strip down and rebuild but costing the thick end (based on Lee Marsh prices and bearing in mind most of the cost is labour) of £1000. Of course, this is a world where modellers complained that pushing pre-made handrails into pre-made holes on a ViTrains diesel was considered too difficult. How simple does the maintainence need to be for that sort of person?

 

12 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

The situation is that, for a fixed price point, one can have either RAMD with pretty basic detailing, or loads of detailing, but much less RAMD. To turn the or into an and multiplies the price by several fold. Luckily, in 0, one has the or choice, and the and choice on top, whereas in 00 the option to buy high RAMD with low detail doesn’t really exist, so far as I can see.

 

Then the solution is in your own hands. If you are so convinced that there is a big market for this sort of thing, put your money where your mouth it. Contacting Chinese factories (assuming you don't intend UK manufacture) is easy enough. They will make a model to any specification you want. Perhaps a group of like-minded individuals could use RMweb to band together to make this happen?

[Phil Parker]

8 hours ago, kevinlms said:

This is a direct result of subcontracting manufacturing of models overseas (I know it's China, but the same would apply no matter who made them). Once you do that, you lose control over quality control and now Hornby has recurring issues with quality of it's Mazak castings.

If it was still done at Margate, they would have control over the quality of the materials used, but now they do not and indeed some of the problems, don't become an issue until outside a reasonable warranty time frame.

 

Subcontracting per se isn't the problem. If it was, the motor industry would fall apart as it's full of small firms supplying the larger manufacturers - and as British Leyland proved years ago, doing everything in-house wasn't a panacea unless you like rusty, unreliable cars. Nor is doing things in different countries. I seem to remember that a BMW Mini camshaft crosses borders 5 times between manufacture and the sale of the car, yet there aren't piles of broken Minis littering the roads.

 

There is a good argument for subcontracting. Better to go to an expert than take on the costs of developing that expertise in house and investing in all the equipment. Unless you can guarantee the assets will be in use pretty much all the time. That's why people have kitchens fitted (specialist skills and equipment required) and don't service their own cars - both examples of subcontracting - because you don't want to buy the equipment and develop the skills.

 

What you do need to do is apply the appropriatre QC to make sure you get value for money. Every subcontractor needs to make a profit, you have to make sure it's not at the expense of the quality of your final product. That might mean sitting someone in the contractors factory, which adds to your costs and the final bill. It's a balancing act for any firm to perform.

[Nearholmer]

Phil

 

You are getting terribly exercised about things I haven’t said.

 

At no point have I said I want anyone to make 00 models that fit the description I’ve given, nor have I contended that that they’d sell like hot cakes if they did. All I’ve done is point out that something would be possible.

 

Have a careful read back over what I actually said.

 

Kevin

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Nearholmer

[Pandora]

On 23/02/2022 at 12:49, Nearholmer said:

'RAMD' is an acronym used in engineering circles, originating from military systems thinking, which means "Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Durability", i.e. that all of those things have been properly considered during design and manufacture.

 

A things can be perfectly well-designed in RAMD terms, but still have vast numbers of "bells and whistles"; the term doesn't necessarily imply simplicity, although it usually implies that unnecessary functionality has been eliminated, because doing so eliminates possible causes of failure.

 

It would be perfectly possible to have a model train that is very-well designed in RAMD terms, and is bristling with details, it just tends to get rather expensive.

Hornby Railroad "Limby" products, the class 47, 31, 73,  which have replaced the old 1970s Hornby/Triang products,  do they fit the RAM-D  ctriterion? They seem to last and are easy to take apart and repair. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Pandora

[mdvle]

13 hours ago, kevinlms said:

This is a direct result of subcontracting manufacturing of models overseas (I know it's China, but the same would apply no matter who made them). Once you do that, you lose control over quality control and now Hornby has recurring issues with quality of it's Mazak castings.

If it was still done at Margate, they would have control over the quality of the materials used, but now they do not and indeed some of the problems, don't become an issue until outside a reasonable warranty time frame.

 

I see Phil has already responded, but just to be a bit clearer - if you read this thread you see complaints about the poor quality of Hornby items in the past - when it was made in house in Margate.

 

I would also point out that other manufactures using China don't have the problems Hornby has experienced - for example zinc pest/Mazak rot is very uncommon in US models.

 

So obviously the problem isn't where it is made, or whether it is in house or subcontracted.

[mdvle]

5 hours ago, AndrewC said:

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet is that Rapido's bread and butter is the North American market which is far bigger than the UK.

 

An interesting question - is the US market far bigger, just bigger, or about the same size - or potentially even smaller.

 

Population doesn't tell the entire story, and looking at the UK market with over 30 new tooled items a year and comparing it to the US where there are maybe 20 new tooled items a year I think it would be interesting to know the relative sizes and if the US market really is just being poorly served.

 

5 hours ago, AndrewC said:

That gives them far more growth potential and the possibility of reduction in unit cost of production when it comes to drive trains and motors.

 

Except things like motors are bought from a 3rd party, as presumably are the gears for drive trains - so everyone in China regardless of target market can benefit.

 

5 hours ago, AndrewC said:

Rapido also "own" (as far as it is possible to own anything in China), their 2 production facilities. That gives them far more flexibility than nearly every other manufacturer. If X sells out on pre-order they can just shuffle their production schedule a bit and make a few more. Hornby can't as they are at the mercy of buying pre-defined production slots in a third party factory.

 

Rapido is up to 5 production facilities, but that is somewhat misleading - as they have recently explained their factories are smaller than the factories used by other companies.

 

As for making "just a few more", no.  Financially it wouldn't work to drag the tooling out of storage and run another 100 units and then have to throw the paint/pad printing process into chaos for such a small number.  When the order deadline closes and the order is sent to the factory that is it (and that would be true whether it is being made in China or it was made in-house in Canada/US/UK).

 

[AndrewC]

22 hours ago, mdvle said:

As for making "just a few more", no.  Financially it wouldn't work to drag the tooling out of storage and run another 100 units and then have to throw the paint/pad printing process into chaos for such a small number.  When the order deadline closes and the order is sent to the factory that is it (and that would be true whether it is being made in China or it was made in-house in Canada/US/UK).

 

Not quite what I was referring to. With production control in house so to speak, it makes it possible to extend an existing run for an extra 100 or so without having to drag the tooling out of storage or interrupt the painting process. As long as the request came early in the production slot cycle. Been there, done that, seen it happen in the UK and Canada for other complex plastic products. 

 

As for size of the market I know it is far more than just population but without knowing Atlas, Horizon, Scale, Bachmann, and Walther's production run sizes there is no way to say for sure how much bigger. A reasonable guess would be to try and compare overall hobby sales. The MRIA had a 2005 figure for the US sales of about $950m. (circa £700m) Hornby for 2020 was £37.8m which includes all their non-train sales too. If you think the markets are similar sized then that puts Hornby at about 6% of the UK market. Logically it is more like 40% or higher. That makes the overall guestimate for the UK market at about 12% to 15% of the US. Lower if you include Canada. So yes, the North American market is far larger. As you said motors and gears are all bought from 3rd party. There is also economy of scale there to consider. 10,000 motors will have a higher per unit price than 100,000. 

 

Again comparing Rapido & Hornby. Rapido can keep adding or expanding their existing production to meet demand as long as the capital investment is worthwhile. Hornby is limited by available production slots in a very busy market place where the big boys and their money get priority. Their production strategy is actually brilliant. 

[mdvle]

57 minutes ago, AndrewC said:

Not quite what I was referring to. With production control in house so to speak, it makes it possible to extend an existing run for an extra 100 or so without having to drag the tooling out of storage or interrupt the painting process. As long as the request came early in the production slot cycle. Been there, done that, seen it happen in the UK and Canada for other complex plastic products. 

 

Except, as Jason has noted, the order deadline happens and a week or so later Rapido sends the purchase order to the factory - at which point the factory starts the process of ordering the necessary items.  There really isn't much of a window there for changes, and Rapido is already generally these days ordering extra items.

 

57 minutes ago, AndrewC said:

As for size of the market I know it is far more than just population but without knowing Atlas, Horizon, Scale, Bachmann, and Walther's production run sizes there is no way to say for sure how much bigger. A reasonable guess would be to try and compare overall hobby sales. The MRIA had a 2005 figure for the US sales of about $950m. (circa £700m) Hornby for 2020 was £37.8m which includes all their non-train sales too. If you think the markets are similar sized then that puts Hornby at about 6% of the UK market. Logically it is more like 40% or higher. That makes the overall guestimate for the UK market at about 12% to 15% of the US. Lower if you include Canada. So yes, the North American market is far larger.

 

The financials don't tell the entire story.

 

If the UK market is 10% the size of the US market, and the UK market is tooling 30 new items a year, then the US market should be tooling 300 - and it's not.  The US market will be lucky to get to 30 new items. (using OO and HO)

 

So there is a disconnect between the claimed market size and what we see - and at a guess it may come down to that there is a much larger trainset market in the US than there is in the UK.

 

57 minutes ago, AndrewC said:

As you said motors and gears are all bought from 3rd party. There is also economy of scale there to consider. 10,000 motors will have a higher per unit price than 100,000. 

 

Everything Rapido, ScaleTrains and other have said indicates a locomotive run of 10,000 units would be huge - they aren't selling in the 100,000 range.

 

57 minutes ago, AndrewC said:

Again comparing Rapido & Hornby. Rapido can keep adding or expanding their existing production to meet demand as long as the capital investment is worthwhile. Hornby is limited by available production slots in a very busy market place where the big boys and their money get priority. Their production strategy is actually brilliant. 

 

Rapido still has the same restrictions as Hornby - there is only so much production capacity in any given year.

 

Yes, Rapido can in theory open another factory (if they can find a partner), but then again Hornby can also find more capacity just as anyone else entering the hobby can find factory capacity.  This idea that Hornby is somehow restricted by available production slots is nonsense when new companies can find factories to start up with.

[robmcg]

4 hours ago, David jennings said:

I think Hornby’s  problem is some modellers who seem to have wholly unrealistic expectations of them. As has been pointed out there’s a confusion between toys for children, with the crudity and strength that requires, and the very finescale models Hornby and others produce for adults now. No you can’t chuck them in a toybox but for heavens sake compare like with like ?!!! Hornby are to be thanked by modellers like me for producing models of prototypes I want, to a standard of detail, finish and engineering I would struggle to produce from a kit (if one existed) or scratch build if it doesn’t : and both would probably be even less robust than a ready to run modern offering ? And for a price I can afford. 

 

it seems to me we have to be careful not to whinge too much - or modern producers will stop, or become more risk averse, or produce things that bring less hassle from customers.

 

Please, if don’t like them don’t buy them. Don’t whinge and potentially muck it up for those of us that are very grateful for the likes of Hornby, Bachmann, Dapol, Heljan etc…..

 

Rant over………

 

I wholehearedly agree that we are in fact lucky to have companies like Hornby who are producing phenomenal scale models in a market which is quite small. 

 

While I wait for Hornby's new 9F tooling to come to fruition, and having derived much pleasure from many recent 00 steam-age models, I am filled with admiration for the designers, toolmakers and not least the Chinese factories which assemble modern models.

 

The Bachmann 9F is a work of genius, the new Hornby version will I suspect be even better in detail. And who would have thought we would have Heljan LMS Garratts?

 

I suspect there is a lot of enthusiasm and love of modelling and of railways behind a lot of these commercial operations.  From my very occasional contact with Simon Kohler I know he is proud of such as the 4MT 4-6-0, and how he tolerates the regular brickbats and armchair managers I do not know.

[PaulaDoesTrains]

1 hour ago, robmcg said:

 

I wholehearedly agree that we are in fact lucky to have companies like Hornby who are producing phenomenal scale models in a market which is quite small.

 

Until I read your post I wasn't aware that Hornby actually produced anything. I thought they just got other companies to make stuff for them. I was clearly wrong in that assumption. Thanks for the clarification.

[Enterprisingwestern]

 

On the subject of quality, perceived or otherwise, taking a model at the lower end of the detail market, a re-release into the Railroad range for example, how many of us could properly scratchbuild a body to an equivalent standard from plastic card or brass, in the way that, say, Clive Mortimore and others can?, and that's before you consider the chassis and drive system.

 

Mike.

[Colin_McLeod]

9 hours ago, PaulaDoesTrains said:

 

Until I read your post I wasn't aware that Hornby actually produced anything. I thought they just got other companies to make stuff for them. I was clearly wrong in that assumption. Thanks for the clarification.

 

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit.

[Neil]

On 27/02/2022 at 11:54, Phil Parker said:

.... Hornby, and every other manufacturer, has decided to deliver people what they want. A highly detailed model at a price that (sort of suits them). ....

 

I know that's the way the market seems to be heading but I'm not sure if it's necessarily true. There will be a good number who want this but there'll also be a number who get this by default as it's a case of stump up for a highly detailed model or don't have one at all. 

 

I think I'd rather have a well made, well proportioned model that ran well than one bristling with detail and with all the bells and whistles under the sun. This Trix Henschel is the operators favourite on my HO layout Vischkaai not because it has loads of separately applied detail (it has none) or because it emits sound and light (it doesn't) but because it is a beautifully smooth and quiet runner. Don't think I've done all sorts of fancy stuff to it either, my work is limited to a very basic weathering/toning down.

 

[AndrueC]

I too would take reliability over detail. I model in N and so far Dapol has done an okay job in the reliability stakes. I've had to adjust a couple of locos out of the box but once that's done they run and run. The one Farish loco I have is astonishingly good. A Queen Elizabeth that can run round a layout using 2nd radius curves and Setrack turnouts. A 4-6-2 in N is an impressive sight.

 

So my view of N scale at the moment is that they've got things about right. I think Dapol have sacrificed a bit of quality for detail but their newer locos are using a new drive system that should improve the main weakness which was their power pickups. The only downside is that we now have to remember not to try and take the bogies off diesels.

Edited March 1, 2022 by AndrueC