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Hornby's financial updates to the Stock Market


Mel_H
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Yes. It may not be green with smoke deflectors - wasn't that the NRM edition? but it is available. This image is the masthead on the US and UK websites today:

post-1819-0-54516700-1456439563_thumb.jpg

Alas the model shown on the masthead is not quite the same as the collector's club special, which has a white cab roof and is left hand drive, altogether a different model.  It would be nice if when they say 'shop now' a person could buy what is illustrated, but the very nice rhd version in the masthead is not so far as I can tell actually for sale. 

Yes, it has a lot of paint detail that is not on the Railroad version and the lining is much crisper (like back in the Sanda Kan days) - from the angle of the photograph its hard to tell if it's even lined. I'm guessing it's from several years ago.

 

Closest to this finish might be 2554 Woolwinder in the Nigel Gresley pack.

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Also consider that Hornby in their design clever phase chose to simplify assembly by moulding in ventilators and hand rails etc.  This was to help keep costs down, so clearly such processes suck up production time.  Otherwise why would the risk the wrath, that actually befell them.

 

I would suggest that a major part of designing an item to high production numbers is to design it to be fast to assemble. This has been a case for models for many decades (remember it being spoken of about Airfix / Mainline, hence far cheaper to make despite far higher levels of detail). Some parts can be bought in partially pre assembled (such as connectors on motors to enable than to be clipped on to the contacts on the chassis, etc).

 

A kit for limited production will have been designed to be cheap to tool up and produce from components that can be produced by people willing to do very limited production runs.

 

All been covered by Jason Shron in past issues of Model Rail. From memory, a Rapido passenger car with around 300 parts takes 8 hours to assemble.

Which works out at around 90 seconds per part, which on a production line seems very slow.

 

But even the costs of 8 hours labour is cheap compared to having to slash 40% off the price to sell them quick when your production planning turns out to have been badly done

 

All the best

 

Katy

Edited by Kickstart
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The Hornby Mark 1 coaches look fine to me too, however I have not, and will not, buy any, because:

 

I already had a good number of Bachmann Mark 1s before Hornby upgraded theirs;

Bachmann produce a far wider range of types;

Apart from the BG, Hornby have not produced Mark 1s in blue/grey.

 

The last point for me sums up the issues with Hornby's marketing; Far more Mark 1s carried blue/grey than green or chocolate/cream, yet Hornby do not seem to recognise this. Similarly, there have been (so far) no fewer than five versions of the LNER long CCT in BR crimson yet none in maroon or blue. I find this bizarre.

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Yes, it has a lot of paint detail that is not on the Railroad version and the lining is much crisper (like back in the Sanda Kan days) - from the angle of the photograph its hard to tell if it's even lined. I'm guessing it's from several years ago.

 

Closest to this finish might be 2554 Woolwinder in the Nigel Gresley pack.

 

I think it's a hybrid of sorts. Possibly the current Railroad Chassis under the old super-detailed tender drive body.

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I don't and won't argue that they missed an opportunity today, but not 'totally and absolutely'.

 

I'd go as far as to say that even if you pre-ordered the current livery, given the tenuous business state of the company there's no guarantees about when (if ever) you would see it.  Were it in stock today, they'd certainly sell a lot more of them than they will see pre-orders tentatively scheduled for June. They missed that opportunity for sure.

 

Firstly, let me say I am very familiar with the logistics of commissioning models from China - I have been, and still am involved with the process where I work, and indeed designed parts of a recent large scale live steam model we commissioned.  I fully understand how difficult it is, but in the case of the FS, it was known it would eventually appear, and they could have been ready some time in advance.  PPPPPP is the saying, where I learnt my trade. (prior planning prevents p!ss poor performance)......

 

The reason I say totally and absolutely, is that it was a one shot opportunity - there is only going to be one 'first trip', and it was yesterday.  That was their opportunity to build upon the massive media frenzy, and it has passed.  It will never re-occur for a long, long time, if at all.  So they will get the 'usual' level of sales, as opposed to riding the media wave of free advertising.  Still, the CEO probably had a bet on it...... :jester:   A shame, the whole thing. For Hornby, for dealers, and for the loco buying public.

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known it would eventually appear, and they could have been ready some time in advance.  PPPPPP is the saying, where I learnt my trade. (prior planning prevents p!ss poor performance)......

 

The reason I say totally and absolutely, is that it was a one shot opportunity - there is only going to be one 'first trip', and it was yesterday.  That was their opportunity to build upon the massive media frenzy, and it has passed.  It will never re-occur for a long, long time, if at all.  So they will get the 'usual' level of 

 

Except that it seems that - for whatever the reason - Hornby isn't currently in a position to hang onto stock. So if they got it six months early, they would probably have ended up selling it all off at cost or less in an on-line sale.

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Hey guys. I haven't read through the entire thread so I apologise if any of this has been said already......

 

Every December Hornby will proudly announce it's new models that it's going to produce, and every year it will consist of 4 or 5 new steam engines and if modellers of the D & E era are lucky 1 obscure model - currently it's the class 71......ah yes, of course, a duplication of a model that DJM had already announced. Hornby must have felt that Dave was stepping on their toes when he announced his class 71 so they clearly did the sensible thing and promptly announced they are going to re-tool the class 91 with all it's myriad of available liveries and then followed that up with an all new class 156 with it's myriad of available liveries......just think of all that lovely revenue that would be very handy for a cash strapped company......no wait - that's just me being, frankly, stupid. Why would I produce an all new class 91 or 156 with all it myri (you get the idea) when I can produce a class 71 which has already been announced by somebody with it's huge geographical spread and choice of liveries......no wait - I'm being stupid again.

 

When we make one of our frequent shopping trips to Portsmouth my son ( who is interested in trains ) will see endless class 377, 450 or 158, but what he won't see is Holden, Peckett or un-rebuilt merchant navy class locomotives. So can I take him to the local model shop and buy a Hornby Electrostar......no, because Hornby don't seem interested in appealing to the younger generation, except through its Thomas range and we quite often see him chuffing up & down the Coastway line don't we. Fortunately Bachmann don't seem to be so short sighted and so I will probably not buy anything from Hornby and buy the forthcoming Bachmann 450.....more lost revenue for Hornby.

 

Unfortunately it's no different for me as a 42 year old. Hornby gave me the most relevant model for somebody of my age, having lived in West Sussex all my life - the 4VEP, and what a little cracker it was too, no hold on, I am being stupid again, and what about Hornby's efforts to tempt me to buy some of their blue/grey Mk1s instead of Bachmann's - who don't seem to be just interested in maroon or chocolate & cream, but instead offer a full range of liveries incl. the sectorisation era.

 

Sadly for me, if Hornby ultimately disappeared, it would be their own fault, because they do not appeal to all people with it's very steam biased range....

Edited by steve1023
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When we make one of our frequent shopping trips to Portsmouth my son ( who is interested in trains ) will see endless class 377, 450 or 158, but what he won't see is Holden, Peckett or un-rebuilt merchant navy class locomotives. So can I take him to the local model shop and buy a Hornby Electrostar......no, because Hornby don't seem interested in appealing to the younger generation, except through its Thomas range and we quite often see him chuffing up & down the Coastway line don't we. Fortunately Bachmann don't seem to be so short sighted and so I will probably not buy anything from Hornby and buy the forthcoming Bachmann 450.....more lost revenue for Hornby.

 

 

On the other hand, a train set consisting of a DMU or EMU going round in circles probably doesn't hold the attention as long as something with a small steam engine and a few trucks to shunt around, put loads in etc. Then you can get a couple of carriages for it to pull as well...

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I partially agree - but only if you have an interest in steam engines. Using your example if I were in the market For that sort of thing then I would have probably purchased the Bachmann class 105 DMU starter/train set they did a couple years ago and maybe a class 25 or 37 to haul the trucks and coaches. But my son would not relate to that either. I understand it is relative to your interests, but Hornby's ratio of producing 4 or 5:1 steam to D & E is not helpful to introducing new/younger people to the hobby.

 

Bachmann clearly think there is a market for modern trains, class 158 getting re-tooled, class 450 being produced......

 

Incidentally since I posted an hour or so ago my son has asked if he can drive trains on train simulator. He is currently thrashing a class 170 DMU up and down the test track on it. I offered him the 4F but he said no. That is where the younger generation are driving trains - not on model railways unfortunately.

 

Steve

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What we don't know about more recent years is how the sales of Hornby models split over the steam/diesel/electric categories or what level of return models in in the various categories generate.  For all we know the level of advance orders on, say, the new 'Merchant Navy' will generate an attractive cash flow and good return on investment while the same might be the case for a pair of the latest liveries of HST power cars compared with, say, a Class 31.  Whichever or whatever we simply do not know but it might be reasonable to assume that Hornby do.  Why, otherwise would they offer what they do offer in their new models each year?

 

Equally do we really know the situation with the vast mass of children in Britain?  I suspect from past knowledge that more youngsters today had their first train ride behind a steam engine on a 'Santa Special' on a preserved railway than had their first ride behind a train pulled by a diesel loco or even on some sort of multiple unit.  My offspring were unusual in the junior school years that they had actually travelled on any sort of train and I still see parties of school children locally being taken to look at our local station which boasts no more than a Class 165 unit.

 

Obviously the children of parents with some sort of railway interest will get to see more but I reckon their knowledge and experience - and their likes/dislikes are  most likely atypical rather than typical.    Both of my, now adult, offspring are more interested in various continental railway and stock than they are in UK stuff - probably because they both manage more miles (or kms) every year on foreign trains rather than those in Britain.  What we have to hope for the sake of their business is that Hornby know where their currently strongest and most rewarding model railway markets lie and that they remain aware of that and thus can adapt as market demands and profitability/return on investment move.  

 

Incidentally I still am of the view that they haven't got their marketing right (let alone their sales strategy - which I think has served them badly) but that marketing concern applies to their ranges and their identities together with pricing of the lower level ranges.  And not so much to the high market end where - for want of a better term - they seem to be rather adept at tapping those potential consumers of more advanced years and allegedly with more available cash for their various leisure pursuits.  In other words it's not much good making expensive stuff for the market segment which has limited spare cash - go for the one where the money is.

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I do agree that by largely ignoring the contemporary D&E sector, Hornby have alienated themselves from a reasonably sizeable group of modellers.

However from a purely personal point of view, I don't want Hornby to produce modern multiple unit trains aimed at being toys for children.

If they are going to produce them, I'd rather that like Bachmann, they'd produce detailed models aimed at the modeller market.

From their previous record with modern MU's, I'd rather Hornby left this field to Bachmann, Heljan and others.

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What we don't know about more recent years is how the sales of Hornby models split over the steam/diesel/electric categories or what level of return models in in the various categories generate.  For all we know the level of advance orders on, say, the new 'Merchant Navy' will generate an attractive cash flow and good return on investment while the same might be the case for a pair of the latest liveries of HST power cars compared with, say, a Class 31.  Whichever or whatever we simply do not know but it might be reasonable to assume that Hornby do.  Why, otherwise would they offer what they do offer in their new models each year?

 

Incidentally I still am of the view that they haven't got their marketing right (let alone their sales strategy - which I think has served them badly) but that marketing concern applies to their ranges and their identities together with pricing of the lower level ranges.  And not so much to the high market end where - for want of a better term - they seem to be rather adept at tapping those potential consumers of more advanced years and allegedly with more available cash for their various leisure pursuits.  In other words it's not much good making expensive stuff for the market segment which has limited spare cash - go for the one where the money is.

 

I think Mike makes a good point about "grey power" money snapping up high-spec/high-price models of the steam era. He and I, among many others, lived in a time of full employment and worthwhile pension schemes, so retirement has not brought absolute penury. And of course we knew steam - after all, I saw Flying Scotsman in its revenue era with BR, all the Merchant Navy class etc. We knew a bucolic steam railway before Beeching, and some of us seek to recreate it. The relatively small number of diesel and electric loco types, albeit with a myriad liveries over recent years, must make each release a bit more nichy. And they no doubt appeal more to younger folk with other calls on their funds, to pay for a mortgage, kids and a car or two, for whom steam may seem a bit anachronistic.

 

When times are hard,  as they now are for most commercial organisations, targeting the market that pays up soonest seems sensible. 

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What we don't know about more recent years is how the sales of Hornby models split over the steam/diesel/electric categories or what level of return models in in the various categories generate.  For all we know the level of advance orders on, say, the new 'Merchant Navy' will generate an attractive cash flow and good return on investment while the same might be the case for a pair of the latest liveries of HST power cars compared with, say, a Class 31.  Whichever or whatever we simply do not know but it might be reasonable to assume that Hornby do.  Why, otherwise would they offer what they do offer in their new models each year?

 

Equally do we really know the situation with the vast mass of children in Britain?  I suspect from past knowledge that more youngsters today had their first train ride behind a steam engine on a 'Santa Special' on a preserved railway than had their first ride behind a train pulled by a diesel loco or even on some sort of multiple unit.  My offspring were unusual in the junior school years that they had actually travelled on any sort of train and I still see parties of school children locally being taken to look at our local station which boasts no more than a Class 165 unit.

 

Obviously the children of parents with some sort of railway interest will get to see more but I reckon their knowledge and experience - and their likes/dislikes are  most likely atypical rather than typical.    Both of my, now adult, offspring are more interested in various continental railway and stock than they are in UK stuff - probably because they both manage more miles (or kms) every year on foreign trains rather than those in Britain.  What we have to hope for the sake of their business is that Hornby know where their currently strongest and most rewarding model railway markets lie and that they remain aware of that and thus can adapt as market demands and profitability/return on investment move.  

 

Incidentally I still am of the view that they haven't got their marketing right (let alone their sales strategy - which I think has served them badly) but that marketing concern applies to their ranges and their identities together with pricing of the lower level ranges.  And not so much to the high market end where - for want of a better term - they seem to be rather adept at tapping those potential consumers of more advanced years and allegedly with more available cash for their various leisure pursuits.  In other words it's not much good making expensive stuff for the market segment which has limited spare cash - go for the one where the money is.

 

Quite right, Mike. My late father retired from teaching, in suburban South London, more than 30 years ago. But even then, in an environment with plenty of opportunity for train travel, most of his class of 10-year-old boys would not have made any journey by train. The mothers could not understand why my father chose to take them by train to Kew Gardens (involving a difficult change at Clapham Jct) rather than hire a coach.

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I do agree that by largely ignoring the contemporary D&E sector, Hornby have alienated themselves from a reasonably sizeable group of modellers.

However from a purely personal point of view, I don't want Hornby to produce modern multiple unit trains aimed at being toys for children.

If they are going to produce them, I'd rather that like Bachmann, they'd produce detailed models aimed at the modeller market.

From their previous record with modern MU's, I'd rather Hornby left this field to Bachmann, Heljan and others.

That of course is to completely ignore their Class31/50/60 and 67 . The 60 is probably the finest mass market diesel model ever produced.Both the 60 and 67 are in everyday use.Agreed that their track record with 21st C m.u. isn't special....but have you forgotten the 125 ? Edited by Ian Hargrave
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Quite right, Mike. My late father retired from teaching, in suburban South London, more than 30 years ago. But even then, in an environment with plenty of opportunity for train travel, most of his class of 10-year-old boys would not have made any journey by train. The mothers could not understand why my father chose to take them by train to Kew Gardens (involving a difficult change at Clapham Jct) rather than hire a coach.

 

Our local primary school is a few minutes walk away from the nearest station, and they often take groups into town by train. I wouldn't be surprised if for quite a few of the children it was their first time on a train.

 

It did go wrong once when the train they were aiming at was cancelled, and it turned out that trying to take 60 children on a service bus instead wasn't going to work.

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I'm an adult now, but as a child I didn't model what I saw, I lived on the ECML and then the MML, but i wanted to model the WCML. I think I've only travelled on the WCML three return journies in my life. As I grew a bit more discerning I planned a fictitious Manchester Ringway station layout ( before the real station was built). That was at least 10 years before I ever visited Manchester. After that it was a 60s East anglia branch line. I've never been to the sixties. The closest I've ever been owning a 'local' model was a Peak, but they were pretty much gone by the time I moved to the MML and I don't remember them.

I don't go by the theory that people can only get excited by models of things they know.

Edited by Talltim
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That of course is to completely ignore their Class31/50/60 and 67 . The 60 is probably the finest mass market diesel model ever produced.Both the 60 and 67 are in everyday use.Agreed that their track record with 21st C m.u. isn't special....but have you forgotten the 125 ?

My point was essentially about modern MU's and I agree their record is not that good in that department.

I'm not ignoring the D&E loco models previously done to a high standard, but remember the 31 and 50 were introduced more than a decade ago and are not without there own flaws. I agree that Hornby's class 60 (itself almost a decade old) is of a very high standard for a British outline D&E model, but I think Bachmann's 70 is at least it's equal.

The class's 08/09 and 56 are pretty good too, but all those loco models were introduced by Hornby in the previous decade and only the class 43 power cars and the class 67 have appeared in the last 6 or 7 years.

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I think Mike makes a good point about "grey power" money snapping up high-spec/high-price models of the steam era. He and I, among many others, lived in a time of full employment and worthwhile pension schemes, so retirement has not brought absolute penury. And of course we knew steam - after all, I saw Flying Scotsman in its revenue era with BR, all the Merchant Navy class etc. We knew a bucolic steam railway before Beeching, and some of us seek to recreate it. The relatively small number of diesel and electric loco types, albeit with a myriad liveries over recent years, must make each release a bit more nichy. And they no doubt appeal more to younger folk with other calls on their funds, to pay for a mortgage, kids and a car or two, for whom steam may seem a bit anachronistic.

 

When times are hard,  as they now are for most commercial organisations, targeting the market that pays up soonest seems sensible. 

I agree with your opinion,  I am one of the "greys" who are stimulated to buy models having a  recall of steam at work  in the 1960s and was also around to witness long gone diesel and electric locos being delivered and working alongside steam.

The modern  railway scene  is quite frankly boring, even  25 years back, friends who were haulage bashers were heading off to europe looking for a  more interesting railway scene. Today there is even less to become excited about.

The work situation you describe is known as "the polarization of the labour market" The labour market is polarised so there  are more jobs at the top, more at bottom (zero hours etc) but the middle ground, ie the desirable ones with career/company pension/valuable in that you will not be laid off in a downturn,  have been eroded away.

Edited by Pandora
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What I find frustrating is that since I came back to model railways about 3 years ago, there has been no Hornby releases in BR Blue of classes 08, 31, 56 (as opposed to large logo). I can't be the only 40-something who has found his way back in recent years, yet I'm hunting around for core items from my era of 1974-1982.  Having found potential items (second hand or old stock) which I've not gone through with, because of mazak rot (class 31) or PCB problems (class 56), I'd actually rather buy new. The 08 I got from Bachmann in the end..

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I do agree that by largely ignoring the contemporary D&E sector, Hornby have alienated themselves from a reasonably sizeable group of modellers.

However from a purely personal point of view, I don't want Hornby to produce modern multiple unit trains aimed at being toys for children.

If they are going to produce them, I'd rather that like Bachmann, they'd produce detailed models aimed at the modeller market.

From their previous record with modern MU's, I'd rather Hornby left this field to Bachmann, Heljan and others.

Well I for one would not be upset if Hornby could release a electrostar model to the same standard as their 153. As a model, it looks like what it's supposed to be, runs well, is detailed enough to pass in today's market, but if you look at how many parts it has it is obviously designed with simplifying the production process. The underframe with all the bits for the engine and such is a simple mould making quick assembly and whilst not as good as it could be, it does pass for what it is. It is better than the old 156 with its box with moulded on relief. Modern trains with their smooth lines actually make themselves moor suitable for a design clever type of model.

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I don't think Hornby's problems stem from either poor delivery of product or a lack of D&E. They've been getting models onto the market more effectively than their rivals and they've certainly been way ahead of Bachmann in this respect over the last couple of years. They did go through a very bad patch where their delivery schedules were dreadful but that is one area which the current management now seems to be on top of (as much as any company with manufacture outsourced to China can be). Equally, as has been said, we don't know how the sales split is between D&E and steam for Hornby, but I'm guessing that even incompetent management would respond to demonstrably higher sales and feedback favouring a particular era over others and in any case the market is at present seemingly pretty satisfied with the models being produced by Hornby.

When Hornby have done D&E they can do it very well, whilst the 4-VEP was a bit disappointing I personally felt it was a better model than some of the critics presented it to be while the Brighton Belle is a lovely model, the 2-HAL and 2-BIL are very good and showed that design clever could work pretty well if it had been well executed. The 60 remains an excellent model as is the 56. I'd like them to do more D&E but I really do not think their current predicament is related to a lack of D&E models.

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A trend which seems to gave appeared in recent times is that the first runs of all new models are no longer selling out!

 

The first run of 2-BILs flew off the shelves, but we are going back a few years when there was not much coming through period.

Successive runs did not and made their way into the bargain bin. The 2-Hals which came out almost 2 years after the first run of BILs did not sell as fast and - for a first run- appeared in the bargain bin.

 

Many successive models, and last year we saw everything from 2014 and 2015 appearing at once, has been hit and miss. Some selling out, many ending up in the bargain bin, and others loitering.

I am surprised to see S15s hanging around, even though you can use these almost anywhere southern. The problem is the next run is programmed before the first sells out. On the other hand, the Crosti's all went!

A similar thing is happening with Bachmann, the 64xx all gone but E4s still hanging around.

 

My suspicion, the huge wave of southern and eastern locos, combined with 2 years worth of programs appearing at once, caused the southern and eastern markets to overloaded while the paucity of Western, midland Scottish subjects caused whatever little appeared there to sell out.

All this points to Hornby needing scale back slightly their operations and doing a more balanced program. If you are doing 5 models a year, one from each region plus a Modern image or private owner type should be the max for one year.

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A trend which seems to gave appeared in recent times is that the first runs of all new models are no longer selling out!

 

The first run of 2-BILs flew off the shelves, but we are going back a few years when there was not much coming through period.

Successive runs did not and made their way into the bargain bin. The 2-Hals which came out almost 2 years after the first run of BILs did not sell as fast and - for a first run- appeared in the bargain bin.

 

Many successive models, and last year we saw everything from 2014 and 2015 appearing at once, has been hit and miss. Some selling out, many ending up in the bargain bin, and others loitering.

I am surprised to see S15s hanging around, even though you can use these almost anywhere southern. The problem is the next run is programmed before the first sells out. On the other hand, the Crosti's all went!

A similar thing is happening with Bachmann, the 64xx all gone but E4s still hanging around.

 

My suspicion, the huge wave of southern and eastern locos, combined with 2 years worth of programs appearing at once, caused the southern and eastern markets to overloaded while the paucity of Western, midland Scottish subjects caused whatever little appeared there to sell out.

All this points to Hornby needing scale back slightly their operations and doing a more balanced program. If you are doing 5 models a year, one from each region plus a Modern image or private owner type should be the max for one year.

 

I'm not really sure if we can entirely blame Hornby for some of these things?  Certainly they seem to get it wrong - quantity wise - with second runs by, in my view, misreading the way the market responds to first runs as well as simply going over the top.

 

It must really be a delicate balancing act getting quantities right on some things.  I suspect the first run of 2-BILs was very much a toe in the water job notwithstanding strong support for the idea from some retailers and parts of the sales team - hence the first run was smaller in total of all liveries than Bachmann's run of the Blue Pullman.  We simply don't know how many of which are made and we don't know either how Hornby's financial plan works against new models - for example is it like the way some commissioners work with the first run intended to clear all the development costs or do Hornby spread those costs over further runs?  Things like that affect viability, especially when you start underselling in a dash for headline cash sales figures.

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Most of the interesting stuff isn't scheduled for delivery until August-September so, for retailers, what's the hurry?

 

If I'd been treated the way they have, I'd be inclined to make Hornby sweat a bit..........

 

John

2016 has been different Hornby let us all know what was coming before the Year End, and encouraged Retailers to order asap. Otherwise they may miss out on products as Orders would be actioned on a First Come First Served basis - not how previous years has happened. All well and good if we had decent design and livery details available - we could have ordered loads of grey H,s as that what was available on their website as No Image is Available.

 

Hornby has now stated that they intend to continue to support the retailers, so many will no doubt wait to see what that actually means. Will we see a return to the Service Dealer network, which allowed many Traders to enact quicker repairs, rather than sending faulty items back to Base once Hornby had agreed to collect a box of items.

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