Rapido/Locomotion Models GNR Stirling Single

[prtrainman]

Statistically unlikely.  Many cards used to make the initial deposit will be now have expired.

And by the time some of Bachmann's promised products arrive debit/credit cards will probably have been replaced by a new payment method!

[JSpencer]

Economies of scale come into it. Unless you're modelling a GWR autotrain, you need more than one item of rolling stock for a locomotive to pull. So most people own more rolling stock than they do locomotives. And that, in turn, means that the development costs of rolling stock can, generally, be amortised over a larger number of sales. Given that development costs represent a broadly fixed, up-front investment, the more you sell of an item the lower the RRP needs to be in order to cover the development.

 

 

Personally, I have more locomotives than rolling stock. I suspect a lot/most of other people are loco biased. What coaches I do have are always a unique variant (even if coaches of a type share parts between them). Agree though tooling costs most be pretty similar but production costs will be far lower.

That said Hornby's Observation car and Bachmann's Inspection saloon are pretty unique in every aspect on my layout and while more expensive than your regular coach, they are still half the price of a loco. I doubt either have sold more than any loco class out there, and almost certainly will have sold a lot less.

[The Stationmaster]

Second post on RMWeb ? Hope this example isn't a case of start as I mean to go on.Tact and diplomacy don't go amiss too.Worth perhaps remembering that many forum members have arthritic hands,failing eyesight and lack the necessary skills.They might not like being told what to.do....or indeed being likened to cattle.

 

And indeed worth remembering that many different skills come into play when modelling railways and while a few people are good at all of them, or have friends who help with some things which they happen not to be good at, far from everybody is master of all trades (for example very few seem to be able to signal a layout correctly while many use r-t-p track because they have neither the time or dexterity to build it for themselves).   Never forget - it takes all sorts to make the world go round.

[Black 5 Bear]

This has got to be "Loco of the year for 2018". Well done Rapido.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

With respect, too early to call it, and another most significant factor.

 

I certainly hope it has the chops to deserve this accolade (and personally have some confidence that Rapido can deliver this).

 

Probably more significantly, it's a minority interest subject. Anything decent that's more mainstream will probably attract more votes.

 

I will be pleased with it, whatever anyone else thinks. Even at my most 'modelling capable' when much younger getting a competent drive system into this class was beyond my ability. The Ivatt large atlantic was trial enough, and having achieved a reliable running result I retired from 'difficult' subjects: know your limits and all that.

[JSpencer]

This has got to be "Loco of the year for 2018". Well done Rapido.

 

And there is some tough competition. Hattons P and Barclay for a start.

[Steamport Southport]

It's worth bearing in mind it might not even be the best Rapido model of 2018.

 

That's why such accolades are handed out at the end of the year rather than the start.

 

 

 

 

Jason

[dibber25]

Whilst I defer to your experience of commissioning models, I would love to know the figures, because if what you say is true, model manufacturers are either not making a profit on new rolling stock, or raking in a massive profit on new locomotives, since their prices are still significantly different.

 

It has become more and more difficult to make a profit on rolling stock. Rapido can no longer afford to make rolling stock at their Dongguan factory (see one of Jason's earlier newsletters) and note the number of models that are now coming out in multiple and triple packs in order to squeeze a bit more margin. The GER tram coach to accompany the 'J70' did not make economic sense and that was over a year ago. The reason you're seeing lots of new locos is because it is still possible to make a modest margin on them. That is not true of rolling stock, particularly coaches, unless you can sell them at £50 a time. Whilst it is possible to sell greater volume with coaches, the requirement for umpteen different tool suites to accommodate the various different vehicles negates that to some extent. Remember, too, that each coach requires a suite of tools, even if the underframe/ ends etc are nominally the same. Believe me, I doubt anyone is making a massive profit on anything in model railways at the moment. (CJL)

[locoholic]

It has become more and more difficult to make a profit on rolling stock. Rapido can no longer afford to make rolling stock at their Dongguan factory (see one of Jason's earlier newsletters) and note the number of models that are now coming out in multiple and triple packs in order to squeeze a bit more margin. The GER tram coach to accompany the 'J70' did not make economic sense and that was over a year ago. The reason you're seeing lots of new locos is because it is still possible to make a modest margin on them. That is not true of rolling stock, particularly coaches, unless you can sell them at £50 a time. Whilst it is possible to sell greater volume with coaches, the requirement for umpteen different tool suites to accommodate the various different vehicles negates that to some extent. Remember, too, that each coach requires a suite of tools, even if the underframe/ ends etc are nominally the same. Believe me, I doubt anyone is making a massive profit on anything in model railways at the moment. (CJL)

So we are going to end up in the situation where we have locos, but nothing for them to pull. That is not a sustainable business plan, especially as new models are of more obscure prototypes that disappeared before the only coaches left were BR Mk 1s.

 

I would have paid £50 each for a couple of W & U coaches to go behind a J70. As it is, I shall probably give the J70 a miss, or maybe just get one for goods work. I came very close to not ordering a Stirling single, for the same reason.

 

What depressing times we live in.

[JSpencer]

Those are very nice models, but the Single is shaping up to be a work of art!

I do agree though that the fact it is a more niche model may work against it when it comes to votes. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed though

- Alex

 

It will depend on how many people are buying them. Doubtless Ps will sell more (I,ve 5 so far and a 6th on order vs 1 single), but the number of people owning at least one or the other might be the same. The P/Barclay are run of the mill shunters (a practical day to day user loco) in a market full of shunters VS the Single, an iconic single wheel loco, unique (I don't think Triang's 4-2-2 efforts count anymore) in the market that everyone wants to see in action and watch go round.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

It has become more and more difficult to make a profit on rolling stock. Rapido can no longer afford to make rolling stock at their Dongguan factory (see one of Jason's earlier newsletters) and note the number of models that are now coming out in multiple and triple packs in order to squeeze a bit more margin...

 This is another way of saying that it is fast approaching 'over' in China for the outsourced manufacturing of this class of goods, for just the same reason that manufacture left the UK, USA, Japan etc. Time to move on. There's a couple of billion people in this world who could still use the advantages of a more developed economy to improve their life opportunities.

[Wickham Green]

 

That's why such accolades are handed out at the end of the year rather than the start.

 

 

......... well that's the way it SHOULD be in a logical world ! .... but then the ten finalists for Car of the Year 2018 appear to have been announced on the 29th of January ................ and there are plenty of other examples to choose from................

[adb968008]

Believe me, I doubt anyone is making a massive profit on anything in model railways at the moment. (CJL)

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/132927-kader-ye-financial-results/

 

Circa £30mn profit on an circa £80m turnover, 39% margin is quite good in my opinion ?

Indeed Kaders annual profit is higher than Hornbys annual turnover.

 

I think the profit is related to the number of links in the supply chain, additionally some middle men / suppliers might take healthier margins on commissions than others too, similarly taking in to account the desired margins it is feasible that some may not make the “worth it” grade.

 

No one works for free, there’s always profit somewhere, but there are those who miss out on it too.

Edited June 20, 2018 by adb968008

[Legend]

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/132927-kader-ye-financial-results/

 

Circa £30mn profit on an circa £80m turnover, 39% margin is quite good in my opinion ?

Indeed Kaders annual profit is higher than Hornbys annual turnover.

 

I think the profit is related to the number of links in the supply chain, additionally some middle men / suppliers might take healthier margins on commissions than others too, similarly taking in to account the desired margins it is feasible that some may not make the “worth it” grade.

 

No one works for free, there’s always profit somewhere, but there are those who miss out on it too.

 

Good one.  Bachmann Europe will of course make a margin on top of that.  And of course there's all these new entrants who are seeing money making opportunities.

 

Reference the cost of developing coaches versus locomotives, how about looking at it from another angle  . If we can develop and produce new wagons for £25 and its worthwhile for producers , is it so much more to develop a coach. Yes I know the theory that people will buy three wagons for one coach , so there are economies of scale, but people usually also buy multiples of coaches .  And, of course,  we still have a producer who can bring in Mk3 coaches for £29-£35 a pop , so there must still be some money in it , although admittedly not so much margin as in a loco.

[Jol Wilkinson]

So we are going to end up in the situation where we have locos, but nothing for them to pull. That is not a sustainable business plan, especially as new models are of more obscure prototypes that disappeared before the only coaches left were BR Mk 1s.

 

I would have paid £50 each for a couple of W & U coaches to go behind a J70. As it is, I shall probably give the J70 a miss, or maybe just get one for goods work. I came very close to not ordering a Stirling single, for the same reason.

 

What depressing times we live in.

 

I think that history shows that, as indicated by your non de plume, locos are peoples' main interest. The enthusiasm for buying RTR models that don't fit with an individual's normal interest in a particular railway, era  or location is surely a  further indication. How many people that buy the Single are or will actually go on to create a period GNR layout to run it on?

 

The success of the "commissioners" with loco sales provides proof that, if you bring out a "new" loco, people will buy it. The more unusual the model and possibly the more difficult to engineer, then the more likely it will sell well. Adding the idea of a limited batch, available from one outlet only, probably increases a model's desirability through rarity value. In the case of Locomotion, I imagine that the objective is to maximise their revenue from such commissions, with the minimum of risk. So if they can sell nearly all the models through a pre-order scheme, and have a few left to satisfy late demand, then that has to be a good financial model. So would investing in a selection of matching coaches, or commissioning another loco, be the next best move.?

 

If, as Chris Leigh (dibber) points out, coaches are not a profitable investment for the RTR manufacturer, then the only way to change that will be to increase prices, but that is likely to be counter productive.

[Andy Hayter]

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/132927-kader-ye-financial-results/

 

Circa £30mn profit on an circa £80m turnover, 39% margin is quite good in my opinion ?

Indeed Kaders annual profit is higher than Hornbys annual turnover.

 

I think the profit is related to the number of links in the supply chain, additionally some middle men / suppliers might take healthier margins on commissions than others too, similarly taking in to account the desired margins it is feasible that some may not make the “worth it” grade.

 

No one works for free, there’s always profit somewhere, but there are those who miss out on it too.

 

20m of which is from property investments.  I hope they are not just re-valuing their assets based on a potentially spurious property bubble in China.

[mdvle]

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/132927-kader-ye-financial-results/

 

Circa £30mn profit on an circa £80m turnover, 39% margin is quite good in my opinion ?

Indeed Kaders annual profit is higher than Hornbys annual turnover.

 

 

 

The principal activities of the Group are the manufacture and sale of plastic, electronic and stuffed toys and model trains, property investment and investment holding

 

Model trains are only a portion of Kader's business and that document doesn't split out the profits.  I suspect though that stuffed toys are far more lucrative than model trains.

[Methuselah]

I think that history shows that, as indicated by your non de plume, locos are peoples' main interest. The enthusiasm for buying RTR models that don't fit with an individual's normal interest in a particular railway, era  or location is surely a  further indication. How many people that buy the Single are or will actually go on to create a period GNR layout to run it on?

 

The success of the "commissioners" with loco sales provides proof that, if you bring out a "new" loco, people will buy it. The more unusual the model and possibly the more difficult to engineer, then the more likely it will sell well. Adding the idea of a limited batch, available from one outlet only, probably increases a model's desirability through rarity value. In the case of Locomotion, I imagine that the objective is to maximise their revenue from such commissions, with the minimum of risk. So if they can sell nearly all the models through a pre-order scheme, and have a few left to satisfy late demand, then that has to be a good financial model. So would investing in a selection of matching coaches, or commissioning another loco, be the next best move.?

 

If, as Chris Leigh (dibber) points out, coaches are not a profitable investment for the RTR manufacturer, then the only way to change that will be to increase prices, but that is likely to be counter productive.

 

Buyers - like me - may not create a layout specifically GNR of the correct period - however - they/I do want to put relevant coaches behind it. The real question is what will punters pay...? My solution is a mixture of kits, bitsers and fakery. Would I buy RTR....? Sure - but not at ANY price. I've never paid more than £25 for a coach, kit, RTR, new or s/h, with the exception of the new LNER Dynamometer Car - and I'm already beginning to regret that, since it seems they may have boobed on the 1938 livery - depending of which self-appointed expert one listens to.... 

[mckinneyc]

I bought one because I have an A1, I also have a C1 so the Single is a perfect accompaniment model. And when I get my A4 from Hornby I'll have a nice collection of GNR/LNER East Coast Mainline models illustrating motive power evolution. And all in green!

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

And with a Pepp A1, DP1, class 55, HST and IC225 sets, I'll have the entire ECML principal express traction since 1870 covered. There are still plenty of locations on the line near me where with a little squinting to eliminate the OHLE, it doesn't look much different from how it was in the past. Some folks like to deep end on how it was on 1st June 1905 or whatever,. me, I like the layout as time machine...

[mckinneyc]

And with a Pepp A1, DP1, class 55, HST and IC225 sets, I'll have the entire ECML principal express traction since 1870 covered. There are still plenty of locations on the line near me where with a little squinting to eliminate the OHLE, it doesn't look much different from how it was in the past. Some folks like to deep end on how it was on 1st June 1905 or whatever,. me, I like the layout as time machine...

And with the new model of the 800 you can cover 1870 to today. Just missing the small boilered Atlantic

[Edwardian]

I think that history shows that, as indicated by your non de plume, locos are peoples' main interest. The enthusiasm for buying RTR models that don't fit with an individual's normal interest in a particular railway, era  or location is surely a  further indication. How many people that buy the Single are or will actually go on to create a period GNR layout to run it on?

 

The success of the "commissioners" with loco sales provides proof that, if you bring out a "new" loco, people will buy it. The more unusual the model and possibly the more difficult to engineer, then the more likely it will sell well. Adding the idea of a limited batch, available from one outlet only, probably increases a model's desirability through rarity value. In the case of Locomotion, I imagine that the objective is to maximise their revenue from such commissions, with the minimum of risk. So if they can sell nearly all the models through a pre-order scheme, and have a few left to satisfy late demand, then that has to be a good financial model. So would investing in a selection of matching coaches, or commissioning another loco, be the next best move.?

 

If, as Chris Leigh (dibber) points out, coaches are not a profitable investment for the RTR manufacturer, then the only way to change that will be to increase prices, but that is likely to be counter productive.

 

True of the current state of play, but looking ahead, I think the right choice of coaches will prove sufficiently popular and that the market will adjust to the price necessary to achieve quality vehicles, just as they are adjusting to £180-230 for a pre-Grouping express locomotive.  

[dibber25]

True of the current state of play, but looking ahead, I think the right choice of coaches will prove sufficiently popular and that the market will adjust to the price necessary to achieve quality vehicles, just as they are adjusting to £180-230 for a pre-Grouping express locomotive.  

 

Well, I have some Canadian coaches that cost me around £100 each. They are 85ft 'stainless steel' though, not teak six-wheelers. Given time, you're probably right, because inflation will start to make such prices more acceptable. At the moment it is margins which are the issue. If you can take one mark-up out of the costs, it can make the difference between a viable project and one to drop. That's why some retailers have gone direct to China for their commissions but the risks in doing so are great. Running a shop and monitoring the development of models on the other side of the world are both full-time occupations. If you have to start employing someone  to do the extra work, the gain you made in taking out one mark-up will be lost very easily. If you skimp on the monitoring, sooner or later you'll have a lemon on your hands. (CJL)

[sem34090]

I think some people are forgetting exactly what good value is, and also what is actually necessary in a model.

 

I am currently faced, modelling wise with:

 

Ready to Run: The standard of models is consistently increasing, but so is the price. Indeed, the cost of RTR models are now getting towards the cost of kits.

 

Kits: Kits are expensive, and my constant argument here is that some of us do not have the money to buy a kit only to muck it up, and increasingly now don't even have the money to buy the kit at all, let alone the wheels, bearings, etc and that's just a coach.

 

Scratchbuild: A skill I need to hone, but at present haven't got enough stock of 'bits' to actually do some. 'Bits' can cost quite a bit of money, but I do need to stock up on card and plasticard.

 

Find another way out: This is where my 3D Printing malarky comes in - I have so far found it not only cheaper than both RTR and kits, but also producing better results (for me) than conventional kits. It's far from ideal, but it's still some amount of modelling which gives me pleasure, and a reasonable model usually results.

 

There seems to be a lot of people suggesting that if RTR coaches are not available then one builds a kit. If you have that sort of money, fine. I haven't. It's not a case of simply buying a kit or buying RTR - it's a case of having that £50< to spend on either. For me, until I get lucky on ebay when I actually have some money that isn't either owed to me, owed to someone else or non-existent then RTR is more attractive than a kit simply because I cannot spend upwards of £50 on a coach kit to ruin as a first try. It would take a month, maybe two, to get the £50, so to then c*ck up the final model would be pretty devastating. 

 

I will continue to plug the ;aser-cut card kits of Linny Linehan as they show an affordable way out for me. For that same £50 over two months I can assemble a complete rake of coaches that use simple techniques that I am far less likely to misunderstand and wreck the kit through. This isn't about RTR vs Kits here, this is about any means that I can find that will get me the pre-grouping coaches I would like to stock my future layouts. Neither RTR nor Kits offer me that means currently, hence why I am so indebted to Linny.

[jjb1970]

Something to keep in mind is that there are still plenty of suppliers in the model train market and they're all in it to make money. Nobody goes into business to lose money and very few would perpetuate a business if they concluded there was no hope of it ever making an acceptable return. China is no longer a particularly low cost manufacturing country (albeit, it is still a lot cheaper than Britain or most of Europe), if the cost of manufacturing goes up in China then we either pay more, companies improve manufacturing efficiency, companies call it a day because nobody will pay the resulting prices for models or they go somewhere else. End of. We are already seeing signs of a move to countries like India and Bangladesh.

Another thing to point out if that the costs of manufacturing for one company at one factory tell you something about the costs for that one company at that one factory, they don't tell you anything about other companies and other factories for the simple reason companies have different cost bases, technical capability, management cultures and productivity etc. Some designers are more adept than others at designing in ease of manufacture, some manufacturers have access to better technology and equipment etc. There are very few fixed costs in any business (most costs described as "fixed" are more because people find it easier to do that than do the hard work to change them).

And as I think Legend has pointed out, Oxford have managed to make a nicely detailed Mk.3 coach for not much more than half the price of competitor products. OK it isn't perfect, but the faults I see are not the result of poor quality manufacture (well, apart from loose steps maybe) and the fact that their factory can produce models to that level of detail and finish for that price challenges a few assumptions (or indicates that Oxford have been effective in efficient design, cost control and manufacture).

Edited June 21, 2018 by jjb1970