Are we at a crossroads?

[tractionman]

Very interesting points Andy raises. I think there is a bigger issue facing the hobby however, and that is disposable income. Peak modelling age seems to be around retirement (that strange period of limbo now unimaginable to anyone under 40). The hobby is being fuelled by a generation who are retiring having paid off their mortgages and can afford to indulge their passions. My generation and below have no hope of living in the same levels of comfort and with the same disposable income as our parents, so when I am in my sixties, I will still be working - probably until health stops me maybe in my 70s.

 

 

I think you're right, retirement ages are going up all the time. If I'm lucky I may get to retire in my late sixties, with some sort of pension, twenty years from now.

 

So I'm stockpiling while we have high quality rolling stock at just about affordable (for me) prices, ready for when I have more time but less cash, assuming no ill health. Meanwhile, I run the stock I have and enjoy it.

 

As for the future, it'll take care of itself.

 

Cheers,

 

Keith

[RJS1977]

I think you need to accept that batch production is currently the way of model railway manufacturing. And even if the batch size was larger than the total of pre-orders there is the chance of stock sitting on shelves because you, as a potential customer are not aware of it. Plus, of course, even the old continual drip feed of specific models still did finish and were no longer made when they were considered obsolete - so what do people who want one now do?

 

You can't really expect manufacturers to somehow ensure every potential customer worldwide is aware of impending new models so they can order one. They certainly do promote them quite extensively now by means of trade announcements, advertisements, press releases, on websites/forums like this, in commercial magazines and so on. If you happen to miss it you can't really blame them and call them daft. There is a certain onus on you to keep you eyes open rather than roll them.

 

G

 

More important/realistic than "I haven't heard of it" are likely to be:

 

1) Couldn't afford it at the time - two models on the 'wants' list appeared at the same time and could only afford one/real life got in the way - central heating/roof/car needed major repairs etc.

 

2) Wasn't modelling it at the time - either modelling a different region/period or scale, or just plain wasn't in the hobby at that point in time.

 

Then there are those who would prefer to wait a while after a model's been released before purchasing one, just to be sure they're not buying a 'lemon'.

[Ozexpatriate]

I think in the near future we will be at a crossroads within the RTR aspects of the hobby; it doesn't take any mystical divination of runes, just observation of trends and reactions.

 

...

 

So what do want? More choice? Lower prices? Better quality? Better value? Or all of it? If you listen to the conspiracy theorists then there seems to be some perception of entitlement to the latter. ...

 

Personally I think we've brought a lot of this upon ourselves (in very general terms) with wishlists, frothing over announcements, headline grabbing and instant box-opening gratification above quiet enjoyment of a creative hobby. Many people have said we've been through the Golden Age of the hobby but this time I think they may well be right as I can't see next year being brighter than this in general terms.

Andy, I loved your OP and the discussion is good.

 

Are we at an inflexion point? Surely but such inflexion points are never far away in the business of model railways.

 

I enjoyed the series of articles in Bachmann's collectors club' magazine focused on the history of the model railway industry - meaning the commercial side rather than the build-it-yourself modeller side. What impressed me the most from this series of articles was the depressing regularity with which model railway companies appeared and disappeared including those companies that introduced industry changing innovation.

 

Shortly we will see Hornby release their annual report. It will be interesting to see how they weather this, their most recent, storm. How many times has the largest supplier in our industry gone out of business or been forced to completely reform itself as a corporate entity with all the transitions from Frank Hornby's original company, Meccano, Rovex, Lines Brothers, the employee buy-out in the 1980s etc?

 

Is the current inflexion point our own doing with wishlists and frothing? Such things factor, but the underpinning was what became possible in terms of economies of scale in the intersection of Chinese manufacturing and global economics. In my opinion, the wishlists and frothing were an effect - not the cause.

 

Yes there was a good run in the last fifteen years. It's amazing the industry survived (mostly) the crisis in 2008. People should expect to pay for quality products. We are in a period of change. It is curious that economics seem to be on the side of smaller suppliers right now. There will be some casualties but the death of the hobby is not upon us yet. Nothing is certain but death, taxes and change.

[grahame]

More important/realistic than "I haven't heard of it" are likely to be:

 

1) Couldn't afford it at the time - two models on the 'wants' list appeared at the same time and could only afford one/real life got in the way - central heating/roof/car needed major repairs etc.

 

2) Wasn't modelling it at the time - either modelling a different region/period or scale, or just plain wasn't in the hobby at that point in time.

 

Then there are those who would prefer to wait a while after a model's been released before purchasing one, just to be sure they're not buying a 'lemon'.

 

Yep, although they sound like, to me, to boil down to the same problems - having funds available at the time. And the issue about coming to the market after cessation of production is regardless of batch or continual production - either will finish at some time. A bit like you cant buy a brand new Sierra or Escort car now. 

 

What people spend their money on is a personal lifestyle choice, some may prefer to buy a new model and let the central heating repairs wait (particularly in the summer). Or perhaps take out a loan. But at the end of the day you can hardly blame the manufacturers for the events that occur in your life and expect them to structure their manufacturing around you and continue to produce old models. I'm afraid limited batch production is something we need to accept, however unpalatable, for whatever reason.

 

G.

[Ozexpatriate]

Are there similar concerns about the US, or is the market here substantially different from the UK?

It’s a bit bigger (the market that is).

 

The biggest complaint I’ve heard is the one about having to pre-order  New Products and lack of stock actually in stores. Then again that only seems to apply to HO as there seems plenty of N stuff in store (at least around here).

On the high-end, US products are now significantly more expensive than average British outline prices* though manufacturers in general have clearer demarcations between low-end, mid-range and high-end lines.

 

* There is cheap and cheerful stuff in trainsets that is cheaper than the British outline.

 

The following RRP are for product that are for steam locomotives now available in shops: 

BLI Consolidation .... 2-8-0 DCC+Sound ... $449.99 ... £318.76

Athearn Mountain ..... 4-8-2 DCC+Sound ... $399.98 ... £283.35

Athearn Mountain ..... 4-8-2 DCC-Ready ... $299.98 ... £212.54

 

Having seen them in a shop a week or so ago, these are admittedly very nice models - I'd say they are on the high end, but BLI has a whole higher-end range of brass hybrids that are more expensive still.

 

Detail is excellent and they are fragile but quality appears pretty good. If people want these, they should expect to pre-order them. Retailers do order more on the expectation that they can sell some of them from their shops, but the pre-order concept is well established.

 

Interestingly Rapido has introduced a budget-minded option with their "Prime Movers" range.

 

I don't have the sense that US railroad modellers feel like the commercial side of the hobby is 'at a crossroads'.

[MikeOxon]

I don't think it's just the cost of models versus disposable income.  As an early post in this thread pointed out, loco model prices have not changed that much, when measured in those terms. 

 

What has changed, out of all recognition, is the cost of competing 'toys' (used in a very broad sense of hobby/leisure items).  Electronics 'toys' have become vastly more sophisticated, at ever lower prices - TVs, video, cameras, computers, etc., etc.  Many of these items have almost completely dispensed with expensive mechanical items, like switches and knobs, and use much cheaper touch-screen controls, with high levels of circuit integration (which is essentially a printing process).  Against these, railway models still require precision-engineered moving components, which will always be relatively expensive. 

 

I suggest it is these alternatives in the market that are the problem, rather than the absolute cost.

[stovepipe]

When comparing prices of models in other countries, I think you probably need to consider what the median incomes for that country are and also for that part of the population that buys models. There may also be differences in taxes to consider. One thing for sure is that the price will be adjusted to what the manufacturer thinks the market will bear based on the number of models he has decided to sell.

 

That said the suggested retail price for Bachmann DCC sound locos, at around £240 now, aren't so far behind the cost of the US Mountain loco posted above.

[Phil Parker]

I've done a “Future of the hobby” talk a few times for various audiences. My theory is that those in the hobby will split into 4 groups:

 

Collectors – People who have a definite theme to their collection be it Basset Lowke models, LMS Compounds, Triang operating models etc. They won't buy anything that doesn't fit the strict rules of the collection. Much of their fun will come in the thrill of the hunt – searching second hand shops and auctions for that elusive item. Purchases will be rare, but prized and money won't be much of an object if the right item is located, especially as the collection nears completion.

 

Aquisitors – People who buy everything and anything that catches their eye. There won't be a layout as such, more likely a yard of track so all the features of the latest DCC equipped purchase can be played with before it joins the bulging cupboards of models. This group are hit hardest by price rises as retail therapy is the main pleasure in their hobby. Most will say they will build a layout “one day” but in the meantime “Oh look another loco that I want...”

 

Perfectionists – Modellers who strive for the most accurate representation of a prototype location. I'd suggest Jim Smith-Wright's New Street is a good example. If there is a manufacturing technique (laser cutting, 3D printing) that looks like it will help achieve the goal then they will make use of it. Early adopters of new technologies, but with a definite goal in mind. As far as RTR models go, if they fit the project and are good enough, or can be upgraded to be so, then they will spend the money. Anything that doesn't fit in to the scheme will generally be ignored. Most of us will look on in awe but then realise we probably don't have the stamina for these sort of long term projects.

 

Impressionists – Modellers who are more interested in atmosphere than worrying about the last rivet or blade of grass. I'd place Chris Nevard and myself in this group. Not fussed about using the “right” materials or techniques, if it looks right it IS right. Models will be bought or built as required for the layout. This doesn't stop the odd “lollypop loco” being picked up but the interest centres around making a model and unless this is a massive station, restricts most purchases to appropriate bread'n'butter models which will then be detailed/weathered as required.

 

Now this is a deliberate over-simplification. You could probably add several other categories to the list, but it's a start.

 

Many people have a bit of each characteristic too. I know my Triang operating models collection is good (needs a Q Car, but then who doesn't) but really I just like making models of stuff. Generally I can resist most new RTR unless I have a use for it, but I have a Garratt and only build 6ft long layouts so there is a bit of Aquisitor in there too.

 

My feeling is that the Aquisitors make up the noisier bit of most forums as they feel the pain when a model isn't perfect or the price rises. Those in the later two categories probably spend more time at the workbench than the computer so you don't hear from them so often. Since they buy less and aren't so afraid to take a knife to a nice new model, the price/quality issues aren't so great either. Collectors? They're all on eBay...

[Dunsignalling]

More important/realistic than "I haven't heard of it" are likely to be:

 

1) Couldn't afford it at the time - two models on the 'wants' list appeared at the same time and could only afford one/real life got in the way - central heating/roof/car needed major repairs etc.

 

2) Wasn't modelling it at the time - either modelling a different region/period or scale, or just plain wasn't in the hobby at that point in time.

 

Then there are those who would prefer to wait a while after a model's been released before purchasing one, just to be sure they're not buying a 'lemon'.

All of the above are easily solved - by buying second-hand.

 

If we want even existing models in new liveries, earlier versions have to be discontinued and wanting something that was made two or three years ago has always been a factor that newcomers to the hobby and people who keep chopping and changing their modelling themes have had to face. 

 

Tracking down the discontinued stuff is just part of the process.

 

I don't fall into either category but still need to do it whenever I need another Bulleid Light Pacific with a particular specification for renaming if the current version has the wrong tender etc.

 

John

[leavesontheline]

"Aquisitors" - brilliant! Also known as 'Magpies' (me included!) ...... "ooh look a new shiny thing!"

[Craigw]

How any manufacturer will be able to sell a £120 model (at today's prices) is beyond me. Quality and cost will have to drop or nobody will be able to afford anything at all.

 

David

 I dont think this is really the case honestly. What people have become used to is the idea of having good models that were in effect "cheap". I know from first hand experience here (Australia) that some people have been buying 15-20 of some models to collect all the liveries. That is total madness. It has distorted the market and provided a sort of false reality on the narket size.

 

The price rises and such are in reality a circuit breaker. Buy less and build something rather than buy and keep buying. The model railway market is like any market - it is a finite size. Releasing more and more will not result in a continual growth.

 

Craig w

[leavesontheline]

.... also to add to Andy Y's closing comment:

 

"Personally I think we've brought a lot of this upon ourselves (in very general terms) with wishlists, frothing over announcements, headline grabbing and instant box-opening gratification above quiet enjoyment of a creative hobby. Many people have said we've been through the Golden Age of the hobby but this time I think they may well be right as I can't see next year being brighter than this in general terms."

 

i think there is a lot of 'FOMO' (Google it!) going on here too, perhaps fuelled by the speed with which model railway 'news' travels these days via social media, including Youtube and forums such as RMWeb and MREMag. Whether that 'news' be about a newly announced model, a model about to hit the shelves, a model on the shelf that has just been reduced to a bargain price or the 'rarity' of a second hand model on eBay. Quite often though, in the current UK model railway industry, this 'fear' is well founded - how many of us have indeed missed out on something we really would have liked due to limited production runs being quickly snapped up, or missed out on a bargain because we were 'too slow'? It has happened to me a number of times over the last few years!

 

Thus my expenditure has now become much more erratic. If I see something that 'fits' with my era/region, and I can afford it at the time, I will buy it because I don't know if it will be still be available in a few months time or even by the next time I get paid! It makes it very difficult to spread costs. So for rolling stock such as coaches I now buy a whole rake at once if I can afford it because I have suffered from 'partially completed' rakes in the past. For locos it is a slightly different situation. Recently I have suffered from a slight fear surrounding the longevity of Hornby, plus a fear that some of their excellent products of recent years may never be available again due to tool ownership issues and also a fear that if I do splash out on a brand new model, within a couple of weeks I will find it's price slashed either by Hornby themselves or by the retailers. So I have virtually stopped buying the 'big ticket' items, unless they are completely relevant to my 'needs' but instead have been snapping up sightly older new stock from retailers shelves. My Bachmann and Heljan loco purchases have been largely dictated by price fears rather than availability fears and have mostly been items 'on offer' or in sales. Like others have already mentioned, for me the notional £100 barrier for a loco takes me some justification to break - okay, sometimes this justification might only take me a few moments of careful thought - but soon there will be very few RTR locos with an RRP under the £100 barrier!

 

To some extent, reading editorials and 'industry comment' like Andy Y's OP has sown the seeds and further cultivated these fears in my mind! I often find myself making a random out-of-era-and-region (and usually discounted) purchase based purely on the fact that it is a really fantastic model, the quality/detail/finish of which "we may never see again at these prices, if at all". The thought that keeps going through my mind is that if, due to complete lack of supply or out-of-reach pricing, I had to stop purchasing RTR items today, am I happy that my future modelling needs would be met? The rational answer is 'yes', I probably do now own more than I could ever need and I'm glad I over-spent those x times, y months/years ago in order to get that specific loco at a price that seemed expensive at the time but now looks like a complete steal compared to current pricing. If I was being rational though, I probably wouldn't be spending my disposable income on little plastic trains!

 

However I will most probably carry on spending erratically, probably about the same overall amount per year though, and I will probably be a bit more selective over how relevant a purchase is to my era/region.

 

I remember a point about three years ago (maybe?), when Hornby's first disappointing 'design clever' products were hitting the shelves, when I also virtually stopped buying Bachmann products (and to a lesser extent Hornby) due to repeated quality problems resulting in returns and also lack of new items coming out. My model railway expenditure virtually dropped to zero for quite a few months. It was all quite depressing (within the limited scope of railway modelling of course! - not life as a whole) and seemed like it was the 'beginning of the end' with the 'golden age' behind us. Thankfully though, from my perspective this turned out not to be the case and for me both Hornby and Bachmann seemed to turn things around and we have also seen a number of smaller manufacturers and special commissions enter the market to spice things up a bit. Back in the 2000's once production moved to China, Hornby in particular were churning out such fantastic new-tool models at such a rate (sometimes at the expense of QC it seemed) that I just couldn't keep up! It was only more recently in the 2010's that I was able to fill in some of the 'gaps' in my line-up by getting second and third generation versions of such models where they were still sat on the shelves of some retailers. Personally I don't want to go back to those times and would much rather the manufacturers just concentrate on rolling out low single figures of 'new tool' models each year, maybe just one or two, but hitting their commitments in terms of release dates so we can all plan finances ahead more easily. Regular re-liveries and re-numbers would also give us all that second chance to get something we missed the first time around. I also have no problem with duplication between manufacturers, I think it is healthy. I for one would love to see Hornby's take on a Class 37 to the same standard as their Classes 31/50/60/67. I already own too many of Bachmann's superb version but would quite happily acquire further examples if Hornby produced a worthy competitor!

 

So overall I feel very positive about the current state of the industry. I don't think we have come to the end of the 'golden age', just a different phase. I really do hope Hornby pull through their current financial situation and also hope that Bachmann's current financial strategy continues to work for them. Both companies still have a huge catalogue of prototypes they could model for us, along with the smaller suppliers. I also don't think the average UK railway modeller is rapidly ageing, even if the membership of this forum might make it seem like that! I was born in the 70's long after mainline steam had disappeared yet I own more 1:76 steam locos than 'modern image'. I grew up with BR Blue diesels and 'boring' DMU's and very rarely saw mainline or preserved line heritage steam until relatively recently.  I was also completely uninterested in railways for the whole of the 'sectorisation' period and beyond yet I own more models from this era than from the BR Blue era that I grew up with and remember seeing regularly. You've also got to see all the kids (small and big!) at model railway shows to see that dads, who are much too young to have seen steam 'in the flesh' yet appreciate it from an engineering heritage or other perspective, pass that on to their kids. Also, most blokes never really grow up and for every Thomas train-set that is bought for said kids and then promptly relegated to the loft I bet many more end up being further developed by the dads with or without the continued interest of the children and these dads will probably continue down that slippery slope into their retirement! Much is made of the prevalence of electronic toys these days such as gaming devices, smartphones etc etc that model railways have to 'compete' with but I don't think they really do. I think such devices these days are seen as disposable with only a limited life. A train-set however, although it might seem initially expensive, can ultimately provide much more pleasure and value for money over the years, even if it is only when said child digs his childhood train-set out of his parent's loft to play with his own children some thirty years later and finds that with a quick clean-up it all still works and better still, is compatible with everything he can buy in his local model shop! That just doesn't happen with electronic toys - everything becomes obsolete so quickly and I think people realise this. Lego is a good example of a company that makes children's toys, which these days do seem hideously expensive (and always did!), that have an adult following as well as the toy market, yet despite some ups and downs along the way have moved with the times, developed some very good strategic franchises to keep the brand 'current' and just seem to go from strength to strength. I think there are some similarities/learning points to be drawn with the model railway industry here.

 

To some extent there is a bit of a backlash against digital-this, electronic-that, and people seem to appreciate 'real' toys (e.g. models) again as opposed to the virtual world that is now part of our everyday lives. Perhaps there are analogies to be drawn with the music industry - there are many children these days, or even young adults, who until relatively recently had never seen or even heard of a vinyl record. They had pretty much disappeared from our lives. But maybe because it is so very easy, maybe too easy, to obtain digital music and video by downloading or streaming the retail therapy and pleasure in purchasing music has gone. As a result, whilst CD sales have flat-lined, vinyl sales have rocketed and this isn't just 'old folks' who remember them from the first time around buying these records, apparently this is mostly younger people who were probably born long since vinyl was phased out by CDs and who appreciate holding a piece of music as a tangible 'thing' in their hands and appreciate the sleeve artwork and appreciate the analogue sound versus the usually compromised digital formats. It is a bit of a strange analogy but I think model railways will always hold this type of interest with new fans as well as old.

 

I don't normally bother responding to these long 'discussion' type threads. I think I have made up for that now! So apologies for length of the above but more importantly, happy modelling! 

[The Nth Degree]

Fascinating topic and posts – it's almost enough to put anyone off coming to market.

 

Personally (having just risked the family heirloom in just such a venture), I don't think it's that bad as long as you position your product or business model to accommodate the market and to appeal to your customers.

 

Yes, prices have risen in Asia; wages have increased from approx 30p per hour to approx £2 in a decade, yet the cost of materials has reduced. Steel, the material used to create the tooling, has dropped in price to 30% of its prices a decade ago. Oil, the raw product used to create the plastics has dropped to 50% of the prices a decade ago.

 

Some other costs have also risen, like exchange rates. A decade ago £1 could buy $2 (the currency used by all Chinese manufacturers – China owns more US Dollars than every American citizen combined!). That same £1 now only buys $1.42 – an increase in costs of almost 30%. There are other costs, like energy prices, rents, etc. that have risen too.

 

These are very general observations, but like others have pointed out the relative cost of models is not dissimilar throughout the history of model railways, it's just that the market volume is smaller. The bubble around the early 50s to late 70s is well behind us, and we are now back to the relative position of before the bubble. Manufacturers survived then and they will now – big ones may get smaller, but small ones could get bigger.

 

In todays celebrity-obsessed world I'm surprised no enterprising TV or film producer has not made more of this fact. Another bubble could be just be around the next corner.

[bike2steam]

Don't forget the overall change in our High St. The traditional High is dying, being filled with major chains, charity shops and empty properties. The major chains though are turning to the internet, leaving the "coffee shops" as the chain names that remain. We always used to go to the town centre on a Saturday afternoon not for anything specific but a browse and impulse buy, but I honestly can't remember the last time I went it was years ago. Most of our shopping, be it large purchases (say furniture) or small items (say birthday presents) are now from the internet. I also work all over London (since 2004) and it is noticeable that apart from the odd major area (Oxford Street, Westfield and the like), I just do not see ordinary shops! Coffee shops, takeaways and "corner" shops fill almost every retail premises.

 

Stewart

Agree, we live in times of greedy landlords, and a return of 'Rackman-ism'(?).

[bike2steam]

I've done a “Future of the hobby” talk a few times for various audiences. My theory is that those in the hobby will split into 4 groups:

 

 

Impressionists – Modellers who are more interested in atmosphere than worrying about the last rivet or blade of grass. I'd place Chris Nevard and myself in this group. Not fussed about using the “right” materials or techniques, if it looks right it IS right. Models will be bought or built as required for the layout. This doesn't stop the odd “lollypop loco” being picked up but the interest centres around making a model and unless this is a massive station, restricts most purchases to appropriate bread'n'butter models which will then be detailed/weathered as required.

Thanks- that's me then,!!

[grahame]

I've done a “Future of the hobby” talk a few times for various audiences. My theory is that those in the hobby will split into 4 groups:

 

Collectors – People who have a definite theme to their collection be it Basset Lowke models, LMS Compounds, Triang operating models etc. They won't buy anything that doesn't fit the strict rules of the collection. Much of their fun will come in the thrill of the hunt – searching second hand shops and auctions for that elusive item. Purchases will be rare, but prized and money won't be much of an object if the right item is located, especially as the collection nears completion.

 

Aquisitors – People who buy everything and anything that catches their eye. There won't be a layout as such, more likely a yard of track so all the features of the latest DCC equipped purchase can be played with before it joins the bulging cupboards of models. This group are hit hardest by price rises as retail therapy is the main pleasure in their hobby. Most will say they will build a layout “one day” but in the meantime “Oh look another loco that I want...”

 

Perfectionists – Modellers who strive for the most accurate representation of a prototype location. I'd suggest Jim Smith-Wright's New Street is a good example. If there is a manufacturing technique (laser cutting, 3D printing) that looks like it will help achieve the goal then they will make use of it. Early adopters of new technologies, but with a definite goal in mind. As far as RTR models go, if they fit the project and are good enough, or can be upgraded to be so, then they will spend the money. Anything that doesn't fit in to the scheme will generally be ignored. Most of us will look on in awe but then realise we probably don't have the stamina for these sort of long term projects.

 

Impressionists – Modellers who are more interested in atmosphere than worrying about the last rivet or blade of grass. I'd place Chris Nevard and myself in this group. Not fussed about using the “right” materials or techniques, if it looks right it IS right. Models will be bought or built as required for the layout. This doesn't stop the odd “lollypop loco” being picked up but the interest centres around making a model and unless this is a massive station, restricts most purchases to appropriate bread'n'butter models which will then be detailed/weathered as required.

 

 

 

 

I'm not so sure that theorising the future by trying to pigeonhole or compartmentalise modellers in to various groups and suggesting that in the future the market will fragment in to those sectors is the way things will go. It takes no account of market dynamics and individual behaviour - at best it is a broad brush snap shot and, as admitted, a gross over simplification. Potential model purchasers are all individuals whose behaviour and buying patterns/reasons to purchase will vary with time and circumstance (funds available, modelling project on the go, feelings, etc).

 

I could easily see parts of me in many of those suggested categories but then there are elements of each that I'm not happy with and wouldn't consider myself part of: I'm certainly not a 'collector' but have more than I could ever run on a layout; I have 'acquired' a bulging cupboard but have never played with DCC and don't feel 'hit' by price rises; I can't see that my modelling is 'perfectionist' (how I hate that word) but equally I do not 'do' or like the 'if it looks right it is right' mantra - I try to be more discerning than that. So where does that leave me?And also what about the possibility of sometimes purchasing models not because they fit a project, are necessary or will form part of a collection, but simply because they are a pleasure to own. 

 

I prefer to see the market as a single scale, from at one end those that never purchasing anything RTR to the other end where people are always purchasing everything. And with individuals able to move freely to any point along that scale as they (or circumstance) choose at any time. IMO for the future manufacturers need to get cuter and more adept at reading the runes, understanding modellers and being quicker and more agile in responding to demand and trends.

 

G.

[298]

RTR modelling will be over the day Oxford and Dapol both announce a clockwork Parry People mover because at that point the well will be well and truly dry.

...and I'll still be waiting for a class 84. Or any of the other Roarers. I guess I'll just have to rely on my Scratchbuilt one.

 

But I'd agree that Doomsday will be when there aren't any new models released, the worst downturn I can remember was about 20 years ago when the market was led by collectors bumping up prices for "rare" numberings and Hornby didn't release any new mouldings for three years. Back then the sales stands were still full of second-hand Airfix coaches due to market saturation, and they still are now. If something has to change for the good then it is realistic prices for old models, otherwise they are just taking up space.

[The Stationmaster]

Agree, we live in times of greedy landlords, and a return of 'Rackman-ism'(?).

 

Very true.  We have just visited our local kitchenware shop as we needed a new 'sharp knife' - the shop will be closing shortly as the owner cannot afford to trade at the new rent.  He currently pays £26,000pa and the landlord wants to increase it to £31,000, and of course there are also Business Rates and other costs.  We live in a well heeled (probably built on plastic in many cases) town with - allegedly - plenty of money about but very soon we won't be able to buy a good quality kitchen knife unless we travel about 8 miles in one direction or 7 miles in the other.  The ordinary retailer in this town is being hit hard by ludicrous rents and ridiculous business rates and both are helping to inflate prices and I bet we aren't alone in that - but we have got 6 (six) nailbars, one for every 2,000 of the population, and the former model shop is now an off-licence.

[Kelly]

Very interesting points Andy raises. I think there is a bigger issue facing the hobby however, and that is disposable income. Peak modelling age seems to be around retirement (that strange period of limbo now unimaginable to anyone under 40). The hobby is being fuelled by a generation who are retiring having paid off their mortgages and can afford to indulge their passions. My generation and below have no hope of living in the same levels of comfort and with the same disposable income as our parents, so when I am in my sixties, I will still be working - probably until health stops me maybe in my 70s.

 

How any manufacturer will be able to sell a £120 model (at today's prices) is beyond me. Quality and cost will have to drop or nobody will be able to afford anything at all.

 

David

 

 

I'm unlikely to work in the near to medium future given my health, so I'm already finding it nigh impossible to afford new releases for the most part. So I buy older models and occasionally newer releases when funds occasionally allow. As a lot of what I want requires kit-bashing or scratchbuilding though it isn't a great issue. Sure old Lima/Hornby/Mainline diesels aren't a patch in many respects on the more recent releases, but with a bit of effort they can look presentable, and as time goes on I'll probably gradually replace them (it being a case of getting what I can to have some stock rather than none at all, etc).

 

As for pension age, iirc, by the time I am of pension age I'll be in my mid to late 70s. Theres the likelihood of people having to work into their 80s and pensions reducing. The days of the good pension for most people are likely to be over really as companies either fold and take the pension pot with them or find they're in shortfall etc.

[Phil Parker]

I'm unlikely to work in the near to medium future given my health, so I'm already finding it nigh impossible to afford new releases for the most part. So I buy older models and occasionally newer releases when funds occasionally allow. As a lot of what I want requires kit-bashing or scratchbuilding though it isn't a great issue. Sure old Lima/Hornby/Mainline diesels aren't a patch in many respects on the more recent releases, but with a bit of effort they can look presentable, and as time goes on I'll probably gradually replace them (it being a case of getting what I can to have some stock rather than none at all, etc).

 

 

Walford Town in this month's BRM, shows what can be done with Lima diesels from the last century. Nothing wrong with the stock on there.

[APOLLO]

I'm quite fond of my old Lima diesels, I have quite a few from the late 80's. They ALL still run, just need a wheel clean and a drop of oil on the pancake motor centre bearings occasionally. Some are noisy, most are quiet(ish !!). They all pull well also, 12 coaches is nothing to them.

 

As to Lima steam locos, my Crab is relegated to the scrap line, though my 2 J50's run coupled together electrically, and look OK from a distance !!!

 

I mentioned earlier that we are at a summit rather than a crossroads. I certainly think that the choice of RTR in the future will be far less and more expensive / specialised. Perhaps the end days of mass produced affordable items is rapidly approaching - time will tell.

 

As to pensions, again we are all being conned & stolen from, especially the young (under 40's). Work till you drop ? - there are many jobs that, quite simply, most those over say 65 or so just simply will not cope. heavy manual labour etc. It seems to me these days it really is a race to the bottom, with a "select" few getting richer at the expense of us, the masses.

 

I suppose I'm lucky, retired on a decent pension 45 years in the same industry, but I am concerned for our younger generations. Putting bread on the table will be far more important to them as they age than hobbies like ours, and that one point will have a major future impact on our (and many other) hobbies.

 

Loveless or Lima ?. The wallet will decide, there is a need / market for both (and the red & blue boxes in-between).

 

Brit15

[jjb1970]

What is the hobby? The hobby is whatever any of us want it to be. And the hobby will go on regardless of the travails of certain suppliers. Even in the worst doomsday scenario there is lots of second hand available and at the risk of sounding extremely uncouth the age demographic of a significant part of those who enjoy the hobby means that the years ahead will probably see a steady stream of good second hand models appear in s/h channels. And even if by some mysterious set of circumstances s/h evaporated there would be scratch builders, those making 3D prints and kit builders.

If we consider the suppliers, something to ask is whether it is the hobby which is in troubled times or is it the older style suppliers? We are seeing a steady stream of commissioners and boutique type small manufacturers who appear to be able to meet the demands of their customers and provide good models at prices which their customers will happily pay. Maybe the future is going to belong to these smaller companies, with their lower overheads, greater flexibility and willingness to innovate? On the one hand companies like Kader and Hornby should be able to access finance more easily and more affordably (well, except when they risk breaching banking covenants......) and negotiate better prices with the actual manufacturers. They also have a high degree of internal design expertise and capability. So far so good however if they're competing against alternatives with no real staff head count or large premises and all the associated costs of running a business who manufacture to pre-order and eliminate a whole profit tier by selling direct then the advantages in favour of the traditional model companies of easier access to finance etc suddenly look a lot less compelling. Rapido are now an established model supplier yet based on the info in their newsletters their head count is pretty much insignificant compared to Kader or Hornby and it is a massive step to go from a small, tight team where you can have complete faith in colleagues to hiring staff and having to commit to pay them a living wage, national insurance, pension etc. Suddenly what was a decent rate of return on products when it was a couple of mates with other sources of income looks inadequate and as the headcount grows it changes the calculations even more. And it is not just cost, like I say if you have one or two people working for you that you have complete faith in then that is a huge stress relief compared to the risks of hiring staff and losing that immediacy. That is not meant as a criticism of employees (I've always been a hired hand myself) but it does introduce additional risk and a few small business owners I've known have been stung very badly by hiring the wrong people when looked at in hindsight. And that is without considering the shrinking market, smaller, lower cost operators tend to be better able to work in smaller markets than large companies.

So with all that, I do see an argument that the smaller suppliers are the future, although I think we will see a culture of many here today, gone tomorrow suppliers. The problems with that are is that it will likely reduce the size of the market still further by moving the hobby further along the axis towards what are called serious modellers and it will make it harder for new entrants to the hobby I think. Which risks a vicious circle. While I do not consider any company indispensable to the hobby I do think that we all benefit from the presence of large, full range suppliers and that without Kader and Hornby we would have a much poorer hobby. The other issue is the retail trade, why would we need shops in an era of pre-ordering from small suppliers? If we end up having to pre-order in advance and perhaps pay deposits up front, and the market moves increasingly towards a direct sales approach then that doesn't leave much space for shops except those able to commission their own models.

Something to recognise in all of this is that there is a difference between evolutionary change and doom. I do think the hobby is evolving and that we will see profound changes in the years ahead, it is very easy to see that as negative, and I'll admit that in some respects I do regret much of what I anticipate, however that is very difference from prophesising a doom laden future. Many of the changes will be hugely liberating I think, I see immense potential in 3D printing and the abilities of smaller dedicated suppliers to provide high quality models. I do think that we will see a steady erosion of the high street model shop (a luxury long gone for large parts of the country) but equally I also think society is moving ever more towards on-line retail and that there is a bright future for well run web stores. I see the debate over pricing as being almost peripheral to the wider questions of where the hobby will go in the years ahead.

On pricing, yes prices are going up but maybe this will stimulate people to try new things. For example if you are going to be much more selective and buy less but maximise the satisfaction from those models that you do still buy then why not consider a move to a small O Gauge layout? Or high end HO? Or try building kits? Rather than confine yourself to an artificial horizon offered by OO RTR suppliers maybe higher prices will stimulate people to look beyond what they have done before and try something new and that is quite a healthy thing I think.

[brianusa]

A lot has been said already concerning the title of this thread and the future of model railways and its enthusiastic supporters in a general approach to our hobby.  However, we are all individuals, each with a preference to manufacturer, scale, railway company and we all depart to our train rooms, lofts, attics, sheds or wherever we practice that hobby and are rarely seen again!  . Similarly, we are all different in our ability to afford to purchase what we desire; some models are out of sight while others are more within the ability of our cheque book so we have to adjust once more.  We would like the Jag but can afford the Skoda situation!  So we allocate the space which will determine the scale and size of the layout be it a BLT or a roomful of trains.  The layout size will in turn allow for the cost of the locos, rolling stock and accessories which again is a factor of whether or no we can afford it. 

 

So we are not crossing any roads as we keep on the straight and narrow in our own little empires.  Sadly things will change even further in retail and our numbers but as individuals, truth told, we probably have enough trains already.  There are few new entrants to the hobby mainly because its slowly getting unaffordable, especially to those who have to consider living a normal family life as well and to earn enough to support it.  Those of us of a certain age perhaps have to consider the pension as the only source of income which makes it even harder  to splurge especially in difficult economic times.  Those with other sources are stymied by such things as low interest rates and what the heck is going to happen should the UK leave the EU so we also have to be wary of contributing to the hobby shop economy or the national economy as a whole. 

 

Enjoy it while you can!

 

Brian.

[Ian J.]

...We would like the Jag but can afford the Skoda situation!...

 

Or more accurately 'We/I would like the Skoda but can afford the Shank's Pony situation!'...

 

(Yes. Skoda. Seriously.)

[johnarcher]

So with all that, I do see an argument that the smaller suppliers are the future, although I think we will see a culture of many here today, gone tomorrow suppliers. The problems with that are is that it will likely reduce the size of the market still further by moving the hobby further along the axis towards what are called serious modellers and it will make it harder for new entrants to the hobby I think. Which risks a vicious circle.

 

 

Perhaps, but don't forget the hobby survived and found new entrants back when there was far less trade support than, I think, you are suggesting.