Are we at a crossroads?

[Andy Y]

I think in the near future we will be at a crossroads within the RTR aspects of the hobby; it doesn't take any mystical divination of runes, just observation of trends and reactions.
 
There has been some adverse reaction to rising prices, prices have generally risen over the last two years but the impact and implications of any rises ranges from conspiracy theorist claptrap (the funniest one I've heard recently was that prices are rising to fund the Chinese military) through to acceptance.
 

Accept certain inalienable truths
Prices will rise, politicians will philander, you too, will get old
And when you do, you'll fantasize that when you were young
Prices were reasonable, politicians were noble
And children respected their elders

Prices never do seem to go down and there's always a reason attributed to it; currency exchange, energy costs, taxation, labour rates etc., and it has always been ever thus. So why now and why the problem? Minimum wage is not just a Western society issue, as China's economic and social growth continued so it came to be there; we've been told this is the case and evidence supports this.

 

From http://www.joc.com/international-logistics/sourcing-report-reveals-scale-china%E2%80%99s-rising-labor-costs_20150415.html

 

 

Since 2011 when the current Five-Year Plan came into effect, wages have risen in 16 of 31 provinces in China, according to data in CBX Software’s Q2 Retail Sourcing Report. Average wages are expected to increase by around 10 percent this year.

 

Minimum wages in China are set by local governments and vary widely by region and how wages are calculated, with benefits including housing, food or overtime. Official figures reported by Trading Economics show wages in some areas of the northern Hebei Province grew by 22 percent last year, while the southern Guangdong city of Guangzhou (AY - where most of our models originate) recorded 2014 wage rises of 5-17 percent. 

 

It's fact. And today I see there are currency jitters ahead of any EU referendum (I despise the word Brexit, it just sounds peurile) with the pound falling against the dollar and the yen. As most trade in the hobby with China is executed in US dollars if that is a developing trend then it has a cost to the 'manufacturer' and consequently us. Oil is still in a low but what happens when it no longer is? The variables are there every day, sometimes they can be forecasted or a contingency made but more often than not it has to be recovered in retrospect.

 

Therefore I take issue with what Phil Sutton is reported as saying in this month's Railway Modeller "Factory prices haven't been rising, and adding details items like sprung buffers is not the costly exercise we are led to believe". I don't take issue with the fact that Phil has said that as it's a good marketing angle an undoubtedly propagates a certain way of thinking in the minds of some. I've already seen reference to it as though that one statement shows that we've been fed a line by manufacturers. I've tried to state facts previously on rising costs, Hornby told us, in person, some years back that costs were rising at the dawn of the 'design clever' era. Bachmann have told us, in person, and qualified it with factual information. Dave Jones has told me that costs have risen too. Are they all mistaken or untruthful? Just taking that sprung buffer as an example; is it of greater cost to research, design, tool, manufacture, assemble and provide service support for a fixed or a sprung buffer? Obviously it will cost more but few of us are in a position to say exactly how much it adds to each stage, but we have been given an indication of the overall impact but I do not think the difference is pennies.

 

Maybe as a 'new' manufacturer SLW, as with others, gets a good price for producing a first model with the factory hoping to prove their quality and worth. As Hornby had previously told us costs were rising in their existing factories and through the termoil of supply chain issues they have taken existing models and new projects to new factories, I am sure any factory keen to win new business will have given good prices. You or I could set up tomorrow and send a load of pictures of a Class 47 to a Chinese factory and ask how much they could supply it for. They may give a price, they may ask for further detail. Let's say they just give an initial guess of $50 rather than $150 to get us interested making it subject to specification and options etc. Once we go further down the rabbit hole of needing to cover different variations in cabs, roof details, bufferbeams, tanks and equipment etc the base tooling costs will rise. How many do we want produced? We can have a unit price for 500 or 5,000 dependent on our market guess. The unit cost of the 500 will cost more than the run of 5,000 of course. Quite quickly we've reached the $150 loco to include all that detail we want.

 

All simplistic stuff. But relevant. As the market sees more entrants by the year and more models by the month is the market growing to accommodate the expansion of choice. It would appear not.

 

Last week I asked members how much they spent but equally importantly what their forward spending forecast was. Such results (and I cannot claim they're completely representative but it's as good a figure as I've seen offered anywhere) can be looked at different ways. 38% of respondents say they'll spend less in the coming year (I suppose it's what they get tempted with though), it could be viewed as positive to say that 62% will spend the same or more in the year ahead but when the survey says that only 16% are prepared to spend more than they did this year then there is an indication that something's got to give. If only a sixth of the market can support the growing costs then they could be casualties. Whether such casualties take the shape of a business, individual models or detail and quality levels remains to be seen but something will, or should, change.

 

I touched on the number of 'manufacturers', three years ago SLW, Rapido, DJM, Realtrack and Oxford Rail were not part of the mixture, let alone the number of commissioning parties, some with very large plans e.g. Hatton's, Kernow and Locomotion; before, principally, it was Hornby, Bachmann, Dapol and Heljan for the RTR mass-market. So we've virtually doubled the number of businesses choosing models to produce when it looks like spending could contract and is unlikely to increase. So what are the impacts of the new blood? It's too early to tell in many ways but the survey quoted above tells us Mr Average spends about £1300 a year on the hobby. At a guess I reckon (based on magazine sales volumes, website analytics and industry conversations) that there's probably around 100,000 active hobby customers out there. On that basis the UK model hobby may be a £130m industry.

 

So, I bought an APT-E and 1,999 other people will do this year too (let's say that's £50,000 worth of spend) and that is only 1/26th of the total spend so it's not a lot right? It is if it means 5% of the total market has spent 20% of their average annual budget on a new entrant. I've also ordered a Model Rail USA tank, some Austerities from Hatton's and will be ordering something to be announced this Friday. That's a good part of an average man's budget and, yes, it will mean I'll be spending less on main-range catalogue items I may have fancied. These niche products have a special appeal that another black freight loco may not; many of us are magpies and are attracted to these items but it means we do without something else if our honesty in a our spending plans is taken as read.

 

The same size pie, divided into smaller pieces.

 

If we go to the bakers and buy a pie it looks reasonable value but when we sit in the coffee shop a slice of pie may look appealing but if you re-construct the pie we would moan about the price of the pie but someone's got to rent, heat and insure the seat we've used and paid the person who's cut it into slices and brought it to the table. So if you want a nice slice of lemon meringue down the coffee shop you'll pay the price for what you fancy at the time. Or do without. Or you could pop into the bakers on the way home and pick up a pie to sit in the seat you've paid for. The take-home pie analogy in this case is the clearance bargains. We've seen a lot of Hornby stock dropped onto the market recently and I can buy a £132 RRP very good loco for £77 whilst I'm sat here. A great saving and at that price I could be tempted and I'm sure many are but that temptation means another slice of spending has been taken out of the equation, principally, I would hazard a guess, because the manufacturer doesn't want to pay the logistics company for shelf rental space for a week longer than he has to. An asset (in balance sheet terms) is viewed as a cost liability (in P&L terms) and so it must go at whatever price it takes. It seems short-termism but its getting retailers to pay for the storage rather than the manufacturer but they've been given the inducement to take the risk.

 

Hornby's last accounts showed group turnover of £58.1m with an inventory of £12.47m at the end of the year. A ratio of 4.65:1. Meanwhile a company which never seems to have to discount, directly promote and has a reputation for giving retailers excellent support has a ratio of 2.87:1; a turnover of £6.9m and an inventory of £2.4m meaning stock is available when ordered and supplied very quickly. Peco.

 

I can't tell where all of the £130m market spend is but I reckon 50% of Hornby's group revenue is the UK model railway market (c£30m), I reckon two-thirds of Bachmann Europe's £14.3m group turnover is the UK model railway market (c£10m) so in that context Peco (which I accept will include export trade) isn't doing too badly at all thank you.

 

Meanwhile major manufacturers such as Hornby and Bachmann are widening their ranges, more locos (yes, the UK market is very loco-centric), more rolling stock and more buildings so their own slice of pie is cut down into smaller pieces. To the point where I believe that some new toolings will never deliver a return to the business, all because we demand more and more and they give it to us. We've seen quite a few products from Hornby where the initial batches disappear quickly and the second runs are slower and dumped, very quickly, at discounted prices. This seems to distort perceptions of value; wait and you'll get it cheap. However there will come a time when they don't produce something because they can no longer confidently predict there will be sufficient sales. Unless they recovered the tooling costs in the first batch (which in turn increases unit cost) then some releases will not wash their faces; the result being that you may not see a third run.

 

And that's before you bring duplication into the equation; I see many Oxford Rail Adams Radial tanks on many shop shelves, they've done a fantastic job of launching a new name onto many shelves. There's been a degree of discounting because of reasonable trade margins too (was it a honeymoon product from a factory?), so although Hornby have got a wide (but disenfranchised) trade base they can distribute too will this be a product which sustainable into the long term? Other duplications; 71s and Kings for example do make me wonder where the impacts, for there must be some, will be evident.  I've also noted the first signs of price creep with Oxford's recent announcements with the new livery 7-plank wagons increasing by about 12%.

 

So what do want? More choice? Lower prices? Better quality? Better value? Or all of it? If you listen to the conspiracy theorists then there seems to be some perception of entitlement to the latter. I couldn't quite catch my breath when it looked like someone was hopeful of currency value collapses post-referendum if it meant they could get cheaper models overseas.

 

Personally I think we've brought a lot of this upon ourselves (in very general terms) with wishlists, frothing over announcements, headline grabbing and instant box-opening gratification above quiet enjoyment of a creative hobby. Many people have said we've been through the Golden Age of the hobby but this time I think they may well be right as I can't see next year being brighter than this in general terms.

[luckymucklebackit]

In relative terms, Models are not really that more expensive today than in 1970.  Take for example a Wren A4 Mallard, which in 1970 would have cost you £7.97 http://www.wrennrailways.org.uk/price_list.htm.  Using an online calculator http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1633409/Historic-inflation-calculator-value-money-changed-1900.html this shows that the equivalent price today would be £118.51.  The DCC fitted Railroad A4 "Mallard costs £119.99.  Given the improved technology and standard of finish I think that we are actually getting very good value for money.

 

Jim

[Ian Abel]

I certainly agree with Jim above. Factual also, NOT fantasy as some folks feel.

 

My first job in '69 as a Trainee Programmer for Shell at Waterloo was considered a VERY GOOD position with good to better than average pay - 590 quid A YEAR!

I started back then (did have a near 30 year hiatus) and bough some Wrenn and Hornby locos, but at the cost of about a weeks pay for each one, I didn't buy them at NEAR the rate I can and do now. In fact, given I'm now almost retired and therefore at the high end of my professional pay range, I actually wouldn't WANT to spend a weeks pay on a loco as they'd be several orders of magnitude MORE expensive than they already are!!

 

Having said that, I think some of the reticence from buyers (us lot) is the 100 quid ceiling. Folks STILL have a hard time wanting to pay more than that it seems, even though I think the prices are, compared to average incomes, not that different from 40+ years ago.

I know I don't want to pay more, even though I KNOW it's not an unreasonable price, so I'll wait/watch for sales, BUT, I also do pre-order and buy new items I like at list prices.

[ian]

Sadly, yes we are.

 

We were spoilt over the last decade or so with an ever ncreasing range of ever more detailed models at reduced prices due to moving production from the UK to China.

 

Now the Chinese, not unreasonably, want to increase their standards of living which means increasing what the rest of the world pays for their goods. The fact that in many cases the rest of the world has no choice since they dismantled their production facilities strengthens the Chinese's hand.

 

Amongst the other things I have in my shop are N gauge wagons from Farish and Peco. The Farish wagons are the latest highly detailed, highly delicate models compared to Peco's offerings, most of which were in their catalogue when I first had an N gauge layout back in the 1970s and are more generic models. A sizable percentage of people look at the Farish and then recoil at the price but they are not (yet) willing to accept the Peco offerings at around half the price.

 

Another factor that will come in to play is that many modellers are pensioners and pensions are getting progressively less generous (sweeping generalisation). This gives less money to spend on amusements like toy trains.

 

The OO loco market is something of an anomaly in the model railway field as it is home to a large number of collectors. These people don't want to pay for a better motor, DCC on board or anything like that as the model will only ever sit in a display case (or even its box). This is an important market for the manufacturers and I suspect that they wouldn't be happy if detail levels suddenly went into reverse to try and stem costs.

 

As the Chinese curse says, may you live in interesting times!

[The Stationmaster]

What a smashing post Andy - really hitting a number of nails on their heads.

 

However predicting the future based on the past, especially the immediate past, has got a lot of economic and political forecasters into hot water over the accuracy of their divinations so I come to all such predictions with a decree of reality (many call it cynicism).  However I don't differ at all on your final conclusion although it might not take the form either of us think - what is inevitable is that things will change as time passes.  What I think is also inevitable is that flooding the wishlist/frothing market will come off badly for someone (or several someones) in the industry because they either make the wrong decisions or produce goods which fall short of expectation, especially if they don't deliver perceived value for the prices they ask (be those prices' low' or 'high').

 

What I think ought to survive is the core market and the manufacturers and commissioners who survive will be those who identify how it works, or can work, and how their business model can be adjusted to fit it.  The market created by wish lists and froth could well spell doom for some and I think it might also already be setting the scene for the non-appearance of some promised models and while I won't name them I have more than a suspicion that one I have in mind would surprise a lot of people.  Equally while prices will rise I think that, for a few years at least, the core markets will survive provided they are offered the right models which means a lot more market effort than looking at wishlists if manufacturers and commissioners want to get it right.

 

The niche market might also survive but its form will alter and volumes will become smaller with prices commensurate and it will probably be one the 'big boys' will avoid - occasional flashes of marketing genius apart - because of poor overall returns and high overheads.  But what will continue to shrink, being priced out by rising prices and restrained incomes, is the 'vanity market' - the I'll have one because it looks good and I like it' approach to buying (and one which I have now largely quit partly because of the ever increasing variety now being injected into it and offering little more than a coating of varnish or the like).

 

So there you are - having cautioned against forecasting I have duly done exactly that.

 

Finally one comment on spending - an important one I think - for those of us who are increasingly more selective in our buying then our expenditure in certain sectors but particularly r-t-r will vary according to market offering what we think is relevant to our modelling scenario(s); that is an impact of price rises and a retreat from 'vanity' purchases as we concentrate spending where it's most effectve.  But it also means that if there is nothing in the market to meet our needs then we won't buy, we'll save for what is relevant to us.

[Mike Riley]

A thought provoking post, Andy.  But can I correct your arithmetic - 100,000 modellers spending 1,300 a year is 130 million.  Which fits with your estimate of combined Hornby and Bachmann sales.of 40 million.

 

Mike

[BG John]

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, when I was on quite a good income, I think I bought three RTR locos (Airfix 14xx, 61xx and Mainline Dean Goods). I also bought a couple of whitemetal loco kits, but later sold one. I had my feet fairly well in the finescale camp, just buying models I needed for my layout, but I don't think anyone in my local club was buying locos in any quantity. Acquiring a new loco seemed to be quite a big event, even for the "average" OO modeller/enthusiast/collector. In the past that may have meant someone spending £100-150 at today's prices a few times a year.

 

Now I read of people who are going to buy one of each variant and livery of a new loco that's coming out. That's maybe 5-10 times £150 in one go! And they may well do it for several new models, plus buying a number of other locos they fancy. I can't imagine anyone doing that a few decades ago, even if the products had been available. I'm sure most people don't spend on this scale, but the number of people who have large collections of locos seems quite significant.

 

In one sense it's good that people do this, as it encourages new products and liveries, but I don't see how it can last. But it also seems to have resulted in limited production runs, where if you don't buy it now, you may never get another chance. This is no good for modellers who may decide to model a particular subject in a few years time, but find the locos they need are no longer available, and may never be produced again. All the extra detail is fine, but when locos arrive with bits of it broken, what use is it on a working layout, where they are regularly handled?

 

I'm not suggesting going back to the days when you bought a Tri-ang Jinty, and converted it into just about any 0-6-0 tank that ever existed, but at least you could walk into your local model shop and buy one whenever you wanted to.

[Andy Y]

Duly noted and corrected Mike, it wouldn't have been so bad if I hadn't typed the same mistake twice!

[devondynosoar118]

Surely the title should read "are we at a diamond crossing?"

 

Missed railway reference aside I personally don't mind rising costs if it leads to better conditions for workers at the end of the chain (fat chance?) The relative expense of model railway items is fine, modern stuff is very complicated, has ludicrous levels of detail and seems to cover stock and locos from almost every corner and era of the system compared to what was offered in the past. My grandad was proud to be able to buy Dublo "for the children" and evidence for how carefully it was looked after as a result of the cost was apparent in going through his collection, most of which was practically mint in the box!

My biggest concern over the future market is how big/small it will be as younger enthusiasts are thin on the ground in some areas.

I am still astonished by the detail of newer locomotives, even in N.

[The Stationmaster]

Surely the title should read "are we at a diamond crossing?"

 

 

 

No - at a crossroads there is an option of taking one of three different exit routes;  at a diamond crossing you can only carry on along the route you are already following.  Regrettably I suspect that the diamond crossing analogy might be exactly the way that some in the hobby and industry see the future.

[Ian J.]

My wish is to have a job (preferably a worthwhile one with an adequate living wage) that allows me to afford a place of my own to live in, and enough discretionary income so that I can properly partake of this hobby again. While my situation is something of a minority interest, it has contributed to loss of earnings of manufacturers. Before the crash of 07/08, I was doing coding work getting £350 a day - now I'll be lucky to get part-time temporary work doing data entry at £7.20 an hour, if there was any in the area I live in that needed doing. In the meantime I struggle just to stay alive, let alone live. The economy in this country may be sold as being strong, but from where I sit it's anything but. Until that changes I can't see the model railway companies getting to see a change for the better.

[TonyA]

I think it was in the early 1970s that an editorial in Railway Modeller compared the price of a car and a model locomotive in the 1930s and the then current day. I cannot remember the exact figures but the conclusion was that you got a much better locomotive at a lower price than the equivalent car.

 

Nothing stands still in this world including prices, wages and expenditure. Twenty years ago, I was in a good job but was raising three young children on my own so money went on childcare rather than railways. Now I am retired with a good pension and do not have to bail out the children too often. Nevertheless, the financial discipline I learnt then is still with me. Furthermore, I do not expect to have a cheap hobby at the price of workers in other countries being denied a reasonable wage.

 

I enjoy building small layouts with correspondingly small stock requirements. I know I said in another thread that I have a lot of J94s for my Longmoor layout. I also have far too many Bavarian coaches for another line. However, a lot of that stock will be sold to finance future purchases. However, my plans will be based on what will give me modelling pleasure and that will not depend on ultimate realism with tiny details that I dare not touch.

 

The question is not how much will details like sprung buffers cost but how much will they add to my modelling pleasure. If they detract from it by consigning my models to a showcase, then they are a hindrance to the hobby, not a benefit and the high cost is a waste. There are many modellers out there who can do far better things than I can but do they rely on RTR? The critical thing is what does the average modeller, possibly with children who help, require in the level of detail for enjoyment?

 

Incidentally, it took me many years of dreaming about building the ultimate layout before I realised that I was an average modeller and got on with modelling. I am now having much more fun and I could even be tempted by a Hornby Dublo layout.

 

Tony

[Talltim]

No - at a crossroads there is an option of taking one of three different exit routes;  at a diamond crossing you can only carry on along the route you are already following.  Regrettably I suspect that the diamond crossing analogy might be exactly the way that some in the hobby and industry see the future.

A Grand Union Junction is the rail equivalent

[Ravenser]

There is a further factor to consider - the age profile of the hobby.

 

Tony Wright has been very pessimistic - both in discussion here , and in talks elsewhere - about how many modellers will still be active in the hobby in 10 years time. I think he is overly pessimistic, and there will still be a substantial hobby in 10-15 years time, perhaps 2/3rds of its current size. But that still means a sharp contraction in the size of the market for RTR.

 

And then there's the other issue he's touched on in recent discussions about models from deceased estates - saturation. While kit-built and scratchbuilt models are probably more likely to end up in the skip than RTR, there's clearly an issue brewing as ever more existing material resurfaces from the estates of deceased modellers. This is probably going to be even more acute with RTR - especially the high spec superdetail stuff , that has only really existed for 15-20 years. A look at the traders at any show will reveal that "it hasn't gone away, you know" when it comes to old RTR

 

In other words, I think that the RTR manufacturers are going to be in desperate trouble in 10-15 years with a sharply smaller market, saturated with ever larger amounts of ever higher quality secondhand RTR, kits and other material, and a much higher cost base. I'm starting to feel very pessimistic that there will be scope for more than a limited number of RTR manufacturers operating on a limited run basis with semi-niche products. That starts to look very much more like the world of say Australian-outline RTR

 

But.. but... but - this is NOT the same as saying the hobby faces a bleak future. Rather I think the hobby will start to detach from "new-production" RTR. Sourcing your models from second-hand sources instead of buying new production RTR will become very much more the norm, and as costs rise kitbuilding will start to come back into fashion. Not for locos - the cost of kits is far too high for them to be "priced back in" and the skill set needed to build successful chassis is beyond most people's easy reach. But we're starting to see it happen with wagon kits - in 5 years time Parkside and Cambrian may look startling value compared to RTR - and in 10 years time a new injection moulded range of coaches in the "modern day equivalent of Kirk" style may have a real chance against RTR coaches costing about £75 each new in todays money, and quite possible out of production (the manufacturer has folded, the tooling's we know not where) or given a limited  production run once every 5-8 years only

 

That would be a world where the culture of the hobby would look a lot more like 7mm in the 1950s-1980s , or like 3mm today. Obviously on a very much larger scale of operations , but the continued re-use of things like old Kitmaster and Triang mouldings you see in 3mm would be going on in 4mm

[Moxy]

Well said Andy, it looks like we have brought this on ourselves, sadly. I hope all the manufacturers find a way to survive, maybe with fewer new models each year?  Let's remember that Hornby's vast output over the past 12 months or so is a result in part of catching up with the release of models delayed from previous years, so given that discretionary spending is finite, they have to some extent flooded their own market, which has of course meant they can't sell some models - leading to their current woes.

 

Can I just pick up on your comments about a honeymoon period for Oxford Rail's factory?  I though Oxford Diecast owned their own production facility in China?  Obviously they are not immune from state imposed wage increases, but they should have more control over production slots and costs etc than Hornby or Bachmann seem to.

[Nearholmer]

Interesting post to kick-off this thread.

 

Mainstream 00 isn't my area of interest, but it is clearly the "spine" of the hobby, so of relevance to us all.

 

Won't "the invisible hand of the market" sort out this quality, price, length-of-production-run balance, possibly accompanied by impotent grumbling from those that don't get precisely what they wish for in the process?

 

If stuff costs more than people are willing or able to pay, they won't buy it, so suppliers will "catch a cold", and adjust their future offerings accordingly; if costly things sell well, manufacturers will tend to go for high cost and quality.

 

And, if there is really a profitable market-position around "no loco above £100" (or some other number), then someone will enter the market on that basis, and do very nicely.

 

My gut feel is that the biggest threat to suppliers right now is the "strategic reserve" of models purchased during the past 10-15 years, which have sat in unopened boxes in cupboards across the UK. They act as a reminder that whim-purchase can sometimes be a waste of money and space, and will trickle back into the market, soaking-up money that might otherwise be spent on new stuff from factories.

 

My guess (not prediction!) as to what will happen:

 

- continued rise of specialist commissioners, at the expense of established brands;

 

- someone will try the "budget" option as a commissioner, and fail, because those with less spare money would actually rather buy good secondhand, or save-up for one super-model occasionally;

 

- big brands continue to re-invent themselves as commissioners, divesting themselves of every possible overhead;

 

- short production runs, to limit risk;

 

- the internet, and perhaps commissioners' stalls at exhibitions, will be the only place to buy new production;

 

- a thriving secondhand market a the "strategic reserve" flows back out of the many cupboards.

 

Kevin

[Andy Y]

I never really addressed the second-hand question in my OP but I feel it is relevant and, as you say, maybe increasingly so into the future. The secondhand market is also important to those retailers and has taken an increasing role in their business make-up as supplies from mainstream manufacturers were most greatly affected by supply chain problems. How much of that £130m it is though is impossible to say.

 

Obviously we can see the difference in quality in products manufactured now compared to 40 years ago although some of the old Mainline and Airfix body moulds are holding up well and are largely the same with new chassis, motors and wheels etc. Move forward to 2056 and will there have been such a massive change in body standards compared to today? I'm sure the motors and circuitry will be different though.

[woodenhead]

RTR modelling will be over the day Oxford and Dapol both announce a clockwork Parry People mover because at that point the well will be well and truly dry.

[woodenhead]

whilst looking at my own mortality I have looked at the rapidly ageing populous of exhibitions, yes there are children there and there are younger people but how will they want to spend their much diminished disposable income on trains in the future.

 

As new prices rise then so do secondhand as dealers and modellers try to cash in on a rising price market that is expected to shrink by at least a third in the next ten years and who knows how rapidly thereafter. There is to be no Renaissance, this is it, railways are no longer the romantic travel mode of our parents youth, trainspotters don't litter the stations of this country and when railfreight restructures from the loss of its once reason d'etre it will be very different, what classic traction there is soon won't have a purpose outside of rail tours which will also eventually go because the stock will not fit the network safety case any longer.

 

The RTR market won't collapse, it will slowly decline, exhibitions will become rarer and interest will wane. There will still be modellers but not like today, today's Dublo collectors will be replaced by somebody collecting Dapol and Oxford.

 

Ok I might be overly pessimistic, but perhaps it forces me to look at what I have now and to make the best of it now because when it's gone it's gone.

[grahame]

Of course we're at a crossroads. There's plenty of crossroads in any busy city and as railway modelling is a busy hobby there will always be crossroads that it approaches and addresses.

 

We've been at plenty of crossroads before and many things have changed. But the hobby has survived and progressed - I don't think that any crossroads we're at now is any more significant than previous ones or that it now means a sea change with potentially devastating effects on the hobby. There is always something new, an approach or an innovation, that gives fresh interest and impetus.

 

With regards to how much I plan, or are prepared, to spend on the hobby rather depends on what gets produced by the manufacturers. I won't waste and fritter it, but if the long promised new items make it to market this year that I want (class 33s, 50s and 59s from Dapol, the NSE connection set and class 319s from Farish) with multiple purchases of them I expect to spend a lot more than I have over the last few years. The future for RTR is in the hands of the manufacturers. Funds are ready for the correct products.

 

G

[The Stationmaster]

whilst looking at my own mortality I have looked at the rapidly ageing populous of exhibitions, yes there are children there and there are younger people but how will they want to spend their much diminished disposable income on trains in the future.

 

As new prices rise then so do secondhand as dealers and modellers try to cash in on a rising price market that is expected to shrink by at least a third in the next ten years and who knows how rapidly thereafter. There is to be no Renaissance, this is it, railways are no longer the romantic travel mode of our parents youth, trainspotters don't litter the stations of this country and when railfreight restructures from the loss of its once reason d'etre it will be very different, what classic traction there is soon won't have a purpose outside of rail tours which will also eventually go because the stock will not fit the network safety case any longer.

 

The RTR market won't collapse, it will slowly decline, exhibitions will become rarer and interest will wane. There will still be modellers but not like today, today's Dublo collectors will be replaced by somebody collecting Dapol and Oxford.

 

Ok I might be overly pessimistic, but perhaps it forces me to look at what I have now and to make the best of it now because when it's gone it's gone.

 

I think you probably are over-pessimistic for one important reason.  While many people do travel by train - with varying degrees of comfort, reliability and punctuality - there is an equally valid, and probably more important to our hobby, way of getting introduced to railways.  That is the heritage/leisure sector frequently worked by steam and often with matching stock - just the sort of things that can be bought as models and in fact probably more likely to be bought because they are associated with a (hopefully) nice day out.  

 

So the big railway is far more present for many people than we might think - it is estimated that c.10 million people a year visit such railways and many of those probably go nowhere near the everyday railway.  Equally many people seem to enter the model railway hobby with limited, or no, knowledge and experience of the real thing.  While I'm sure the changed scene on the real railway has had some impact on those coming into railway modelling I definitely don't believe that all is lost.

[Andy Y]

 an equally valid, and probably more important to our hobby, way of getting introduced to railways.  That is the heritage/leisure sector frequently worked by steam and often with matching stock - just the sort of things that can be bought as models and in fact probably more likely to be bought because they are associated with a (hopefully) nice day out.  

 

 

Very, very true. I know of several heritage line shops that have a wider and deeper range of RTR products than many independent model shops these days and I think it's one of the most appealing routes into the hobby for a newcomer or returnee.

 

Mind you, I spend more on books in such places!

[Ian J.]

Also don't forget the slow rise of 3D printing. As that improves, it provides more avenues for modelling things that can't be justified by the cost of mass manufacturing. It's been said and I think it's true that the hobby will enter (or has already started) a slow decline. Previously that start was a while away, but with continued austerity measures, a stagnant Western economy, and predictions of fewer jobs in the not so distant future, maybe it's getting a head start. The hobby will always be here, but it will change. Exactly how it will look in twenty years, or fifty years, is not so clear.

[Argos]

If we're at the crossroads where's Robert Johnson and that other bloke?

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

I have been actively 'mining' the heap of past products for some time now, having acquired all the relevant OO RTR that suits, and formed my own estimate of what more we are likely to see introduced. Most of these second hand  'past product' purchases are kits, a few RTR.

 

There is the next game changer to come of course. Where and when do we see the next developing economy to follow China?