Abellio retain East Anglia Franchise

['CHARD]

Spanish

 

adjective

 

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   relating to Switzerland, its people, or its language.

   
   

   
   

   
   
   
   
   

noun

 

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   the people of Switzerland.

   
   

   
   

   
   
   
   
   
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   the main language of Switzerland and of much of Central and South America (except Brazil) and several other countries. It is a Romance language with over 300 million speakers worldwide

   
   

   
   

   
   
   
   
   

[Fenman]

... The Stadler gen is in the Railway Gazette's reporting of the announcement.

 

I had found the Railway Gazette's report with their helpful graphic, which shows that the InterCity variant will be 12-car units (not, like the current Class 379s, 4-car units which operate in multiple).

 

No increase in the total number of carriages for some of those services (eg, 120 Stansted Express 379 carriages will be replaced with 120 InterCity Flirt carriages). Which in itself is interesting.

 

But here's the thing. The 379s are currently used on the peak Fen line services to King's Lynn. But that branch was built with an electricity supply that, apparently, means only 2 x 4-car units can be operated simultaneously. So how are they going to get 12-car trains to King's Lynn? Unless, of course, we're going to see el cheapo, high-capacity commuter units used instead.

 

Paul

Edited August 10, 2016 by Fenman

[russ p]

As I stated before I don't think the new trains should be built until there is capacity. The mkllls could be rebuilt at Doncaster,brush, Wolverton and Kilmarnock thus helping those companies. I know the loco would possibly be Spanish but he ho .

Those new trains look about as mainline as a 142.

The transpennine contract is more than short term by the way

[phil-b259]

So the best way to safeguard more jobs is to rebuild the mkllls and replace in 8 to 10 years time

 

That rather depends in whether you take 'Safeguarding jobs' to be a short term or long term activity. Technically both are possible but in other situations one comes at the expense of the other.

 

In any case its been made abundantly clear that train operators, local Government, central Government, passenger focus, user groups all want brand new stock - not more promises of jam tomorrow and a makeover to tide things over in the meantime. Given that franchises these days are supposed to be responsive to local needs anything that recycles the current stock will score badly when judged by such criteria.

 

However, as you point out there is a risk to future jobs by spending all the money on new trains now - which is why investors / the owners of other train building companies are wary of setting up shop here and may be why a big expansion is not a good idea anyway when it comes to jobs. If you have a smallish workforce, when train building slows down (as it surely must at some stage) then hopefully less people need to be made redundant (train refurbishment, while being a welcome activity when order books are low cannot compare with brand new construction in employment terms at places like Bombardier.

Edited August 10, 2016 by phil-b259

[nightstar.train]

I had found the Railway Gazette's report with their helpful graphic, which shows that the InterCity variant will be 12-car units (not, like the current Class 379s, 4-car units which operate in multiple).

 

No increase in the total number of carriages for some of those services (eg, 30 Stansted Express 379 carriages will be replaced with 30 InterCity Flirt carriages). Which in itself is interesting.

 

But here's the thing. The 379s are currently used on the peak Fen line services to King's Lynn. But that branch was built with an electricity supply that, apparently, means only 2 x 4-car units can be operated simultaneously. So how are they going to get 12-car trains to King's Lynn? Unless, of course, we're going to see el cheapo, high-capacity commuter units used instead.

 

Paul

The Stadler 12 car units are articulated, so presumably a good deal lighter than 4x3car units, so will also require less power to get shifting. If the power is still insufficient I would guess that either NR are planing an upgrade, or there will be a software patch to the controls to limit maximum acceleration to the available power.

 

Maybe I didn't read the article properly, but the Railway Gazette graphic gave 10 X 12 car units in "Airport" configuration, so 120 coaches in total.

[russ p]

I know mk111s are not new but if you strip them right back to a shell and rebuild it's not going to affect reliability, 88s would be good as at least when there is problems with the overhead at least they can plod on or even divert via Cambridge or Bury

The DVT could as was originally proposed by ONE rebuilt with some passenger accommodation, bikes also need to be catered for

OK it may not be able to cram as many passengers as some EMU but a lot more flexible and comfortable to travel in

[Fenman]

...

 

Maybe I didn't read the article properly, but the Railway Gazette graphic gave 10 X 12 car units in "Airport" configuration, so 120 coaches in total.

Apologies: you copied before I'd corrected. My brain had fallen behind my fingers. You are right, and I've corrected my post.

 

Paul

['CHARD]

Let's dispel a few myths here.  

 

The franchise has been awarded on the 'basis of MEAT'  [no sniggering at the back, Boris] - that's Most Economically Advantageous Tender to you and I.

 

A franchise bid is therefore based - and JUDGED - on the numbers that are ultimately represented in the bottom right hand corner - cost, revenue, payback and risk principally.

 

The bid itself is constructed of building blocks, each of which is a key initiative with its own Business Case.  A Business Case has to reach cash-positive in the first half of the franchise (rule of thumb).

 

Now for the relevant bit...

 

Your fleet strategy is a process of migration and cascade, but what it cannot afford to do is to replace the same fleet twice.  There is no way that the MkIII fleet could be made compliant cheaper than the new train replacement.  And no-one would offer to finance a new train for less than a ten year period.

Edited August 10, 2016 by 'CHARD

[phil-b259]

They are committed to having through trains from East Suffolk to Liverpool Street (again), Peterborough-Ipswich to run every hour and mostly extend to Colchester, Norwich-Cambridge to extend to Stansted and Sudbury services to Colchester.  All that presumably makes up enough running under the wires for the "regional" units to justify having bi-modes, and also raises some interesting questions about whether a new bi-mode is now economically competitive with a 30-year-old Sprinter. 

 

I imagine the 379s will find a home elsewhere on the network, but this announcement must also be the death sentence for virtually all of the big fleets of Mk3-based units. 

 

Hmm, with ridership continuing to grow I wouldn't be so sure about the Mk3 DMU units being turned into tin cans. While the Northern franchise explicitly says that the Pacers will go there are question marks about those currently in GWR land, or passenger growth continues to grow then other TOCs might be interested in bolstering their fleets.

 

Plus there is the impact of the big delays in previously announced electrification projects to consider.... though that might well count against the AC units.

[phil-b259]

OK it may not be able to cram as many passengers as some EMU but a lot more flexible and comfortable to travel in

 

I would counter that is entirely down to the interior fit and quality of the components. Its entirely possible to build an EMU with bogies /rider quality equal or better than the Mk3 and fit it out like the VOSE inside should you wish.

 

In other words whether its an EMU or traditional coach makes sod all difference to how comfortable it is.... What does matter is the quality of the components / assembly plus the decisions the purchaser ,males with regard to interior fittings / layout. Just as you can get awful EMUs, its equally easy to come up with an abysmal loco hauled coach.

 

Having a personal performance to traditional train formations is perfectly fine, but its wise not to use that to make statements about what is technically possible should the relevant parties want to peruse it.

['CHARD]

What matters is COST.

[russ p]

I know what you are saying, but EMUs have compressors, traction motors and other equipment underfloor which all make noise

A 12 car articulated unit is ridiculous a fault on one vehicle renders the whole 12 set as a failure, not that depots split four car units these days.

[SwissRailPassion]

Excellent news for East Anglia, the Stadler units will be quite a step change. The Wherry line signalling (bonkers) project will have just equipped the present stock by 2019 just in time to see it phased out and fitted to the new stock in 2020.

[russ p]

I'd like to know of a modern EMU other than a 442 which is nice to travel in?

Ironically I was told by a very senior abellio manager that public preferred the DRS mklls to their first class mkllls

['CHARD]

I know what you are saying, but EMUs have compressors, traction motors and other equipment underfloor which all make noise

A 12 car articulated unit is ridiculous a fault on one vehicle renders the whole 12 set as a failure, not that depots split four car units these days.

 

Noise and ride stiffness are certainly issues with EMUs; I include in that the neutral section blast that you get in 25kV units.  

 

The MTIN comparison for the 12-car must realistically be against the figures achieved by Virgin's 390s, and ultimately the Azuma family.  I've not looked recently, but the failure modes capable of rendering a Pendo a casualty are few and far between these days.  Equivalent figures will be expected of the FLIRTs.

[russ p]

Pendolinos may be reliable but be honest they are bloody awful. They are cramped, loads of wasted space , they smell , make people sick and you can see out of them.

If I have to go to Crewe from Norwich I honestly go Cross country even if it adds an hour or so to the journey

And those Hitachi things are fast suburban EMUs like the ones on CTRL, and they have all the interior charisma of a 1985 Nissan bluebird

Edited August 10, 2016 by russ p

['CHARD]

Pendolinos may be reliable but be honest they are bloody awful. They are cramped, loads of wasted space , they smell , make people sick and you can see out of them.

 

To the majority of daily Virgin users Pendolinos will be the only type of train with which they are familiar.  Some will remember MkIIIs, others may travel on connecting trains. One thing is for sure, the percentage of them who have a fleeting interest in rolling stock will be vanishingly small.  RMWebbers are not representative of the median UK rail consumer.  

 

They are narrow because of their profile - there is no suggestion that the FLIRTs will tilt, thus avoiding the nausea too.  The 'wasted' space is generally agreed with the operator, and Abellio probably won't specify the shop, full kitchen or bike/ stowage area.  The toilet issue is unique to Virgin-procured fleets and no-one will repeat that knowingly.

 

 

PS: I always thought seeing out was considered an advantage.

[russ p]

There is no reason for any GE EMU to tilt.

Apparently according to the late news abellio is going spend over a billion pounds. Where are they going to get this from?

[east_anglian]

I think there would be WW3 in East Anglia if AGA decided just to refurbish the mk3s, as the general public have wanted (and been promised) new trains for a while around here and would probably not appreciate another refurb of existing stock that wasn't new to us in the first place! Of course from an enthusiasts point of view, I would love to see new locos ordered to run with the existing rolling stock. However, there must come a point where it is not economical or practical to keep the mk3s going (even though they are superb coaches and in my opinion superior to EMUs) for any longer and although they may offer greater flexibility than EMUs, once new EMUs have 'settled in', they are usually quite reliable.

 

It is good to see that the Ipswich - Peterborough trains are finally going to be increased to hourly as this will improve the flexibility of connections at Peterborough and mean you won't have to travel an hour early than necessary/wait over an hour at Peterborough. It is good to see that talk about cutting these trains back to Ely has died down, as that would be really awkward for ECML connections.

Edited August 10, 2016 by east_anglian

['CHARD]

There is no reason for any GE EMU to tilt.

Apparently according to the late news abellio is going spend over a billion pounds. Where are they going to get this from?

 

They're not, the banks are - in the shape of leasing companies or other financial instruments.  Bombardier are claiming over a billion in new orderbook on the back of the announcement.

[Reorte]

To the majority of daily Virgin users Pendolinos will be the only type of train with which they are familiar.  Some will remember MkIIIs, others may travel on connecting trains. One thing is for sure, the percentage of them who have a fleeting interest in rolling stock will be vanishingly small.  RMWebbers are not representative of the median UK rail consumer.  

The general public just seems to think "Ooh, new and shiney!" and is oblivious to getting a worse ride (so there's no point in putting any effort into improving it; they'd probably lap up open wagons to stand in if you told them they were new).

[jjb1970]

There is no reason why an EMU cannot be as comfortable as a loco hauled coach. If operators are happy to accept cramped seats of poor design then that is not a problem of EMUs but of specification and I'm not sure there'd be any more thought given to loco hauled coaches. There are lots of passive and active sound and vibration attenuating techniques out there.

I take it the arguments that diesel emissions limits were impossible to achieve have finally been consigned to the bin?

[Gwiwer]

What ever the fleet composition I understood that the greatest constraints to a 90-minute headline Norwich service were platform capacity at Liverpool Street and the two-track section from Shenfield to Colchester.  The former because of the sheer number of trains coming and going (notwithstanding that Norwich sets sometimes sit in the platform for over 30 minutes) and the latter because of the need to serve intermediate stations which impacts upon route capacity and will do so to a greater extent if line or rolling stock speeds are raised.

 

So what is being done?  Crossrail will release some capacity at Liverpool Street when the Shenfields go down the hole and emerge at Royal Oak bound for somewhere in the Thames Valley.  I suspect that will allow a shuffle-across of Southenders and a little extra capacity released across the station for all routes.  A Norwich set should be capable of arriving, being cleaned and serviced and heading out within 20 minutes.  

 

Crossing to and from the Braintree and Sudbury branches on the flat also severely limits route capacity as each move would require up and down lines blocked for perhaps 2 - 3 minutes at a time.That would equate to perhaps a 6 - 7 minute interval in services in order for a driver to receive greens even if yellows could be seen in the distance.  When we consider that the peak service already offers multiple trains per hour to Norwich, more to Ipswich, some to Clacton (and a through Walton portion / train still in the timetable) plus Harwich and Colchester Town branch trains then capacity is a real issue.  

 

I would suggest the 379s might end up on the TSGN system somewhere as they should be compatible with other Electrostars some of which are to migrate from Southern as things stand.  The 360s might be of interest to Heathrow Connect who seem pressed for serviceable stock much of the time needing four of five units for traffic and arguably needing more capacity.  Things may change there too as Crossrail comes on stream.  Those are the only units I see having a longer term future unless London Midland mops up more 321s.  Those could of course end up in the north as have ex-Thameslink 319s; there are already 321s running around Leeds for instance.   GWR might take an interest in some Mk3 vehicles for their overnight operation in the short term as additional seated capacity is also needed there and a longer rake of perhaps 5 or 6 sitters could be offered for daytime service which the existing 3-coach sets are not really suited to due to inadequate capacity.

 

Clacton has become sidelined over many years from the days of main line operation with Brits and then the fondly-remembered 309s and is now just another outer-suburban branch served by suburban-seated stock serving about half the intermediate stations rather than any decent fast services.  That should be rectified.  Not because the likes of Wivenhoe don't deserve direct London trains (they do) but there should be scope for two London - Clactons an hour with one stopping only at perhaps Stratford (since everything apart from the Norwich service now calls off-peak), Chelmsford and Colchester in 70 - 75 minutes.  The other can do the intermediate stops and carry the Walton connection at Thorpe-in-the-Middle-of-Nowhere.

Heljan have yet to announce a 1:1 scale class 15 Liverpool Street station pilot for the new franchise.  

['CHARD]

I take it the arguments that diesel emissions limits were impossible to achieve have finally been consigned to the bin?

 

They are achievable.  CAF offered a compliant product for Northern, as did the diesel victor this time round.

[Edwin_m]

I would suggest the 379s might end up on the TSGN system somewhere as they should be compatible with other Electrostars some of which are to migrate from Southern as things stand.  The 360s might be of interest to Heathrow Connect who seem pressed for serviceable stock much of the time needing four of five units for traffic and arguably needing more capacity.  Things may change there too as Crossrail comes on stream.  Those are the only units I see having a longer term future unless London Midland mops up more 321s.  Those could of course end up in the north as have ex-Thameslink 319s; there are already 321s running around Leeds for instance.   GWR might take an interest in some Mk3 vehicles for their overnight operation in the short term as additional seated capacity is also needed there and a longer rake of perhaps 5 or 6 sitters could be offered for daytime service which the existing 3-coach sets are not really suited to due to inadequate capacity.

Heathrow Connect will disappear in a couple of years when Crossrail takes over, so their 360s will also be surplus to requirements.  Possible I suppose that London Midland will use them instead of 321s so they have a fleet that is reasonably uniform technically, although the GE and HC ones don't have gangways so won't be fully interchangeable.  I think Northern also gives up their 321 and 322 fleets when their new EMUs arrive. 

 

The situation with the future operators of the later variants of Electrostar appears to be changing almost weekly.  379s to TSGN to replace 365s looks possible, or maybe the start of a cascade to replace the 455 fleet?