Abellio retain East Anglia Franchise

[Fenman]

... The situation with the future operators of the later variants of Electrostar appears to be changing almost weekly.  379s to TSGN to replace 365s looks possible, or maybe the start of a cascade to replace the 455 fleet? 

 

Apparently Thameslink's almost-new, 110mph 387/1s have already been earmarked to replace 365s on the Cambridge/ KL bit of the GN (much as I would prefer the higher levels of comfort/ extra luggage racks in the 379s).

 

365s were supposed to be retained for some Peterborough GN services, but maybe they'll also now be replaced in the interests of a uniform fleet?

 

Paul

[Reorte]

They are achievable.  CAF offered a compliant product for Northern, as did the diesel victor this time round.

So it was more of a case of "We don't have anything right now that'll work so would need to spend a bit of time and money coming up with something?"

['CHARD]

So it was more of a case of "We don't have anything right now that'll work so would need to spend a bit of time and money coming up with something?"

 

Don't forget that the received mantra for a few years was 'the future is electric.'  After the 172s had been delivered, no-one was bothered to invest in a diesel platform for the UK.  

 

Hence the big three didn't bid for the Northern diesels.  Others, with a more flexible approach, were prepared to be more inventive.

[Ravenser]

I must admit I'm a bit startled to see that both the 360s and 379s - relatively new and comfortable units - are earmarked for the chop. Also the decision to replace 153s with 3-car units with a pantograph. Sheringham with a 3 car hybrid EMU?? (Felixstowe might get wired).

 

That said 2 x 3 car units, splitting at Ipswich for Peterborough/Lowestoft might make some sense - what killed the Liverpool St/Lowestofts last time round was that line occupancy on the GE mainline was so tight they couldn't afford to give an hourly path to a 3 car 170. If both the East Suffolk (post Beccles loop) and Ipswich/Peterborough go to hourly then this problem could be sidestepped.

 

The 321s have given sterling service over many years - it will be interesting to see which bit of the North gets them

['CHARD]

I must admit I'm a bit startled to see that both the 360s and 379s - relatively new and comfortable units - are earmarked for the chop. Also the decision to replace 153s with 3-car units with a pantograph. Sheringham with a 3 car hybrid EMU?? (Felixstowe might get wired).

 

The 321s have given sterling service over many years - it will be interesting to see which bit of the North gets them

 

The 360s are planned to join their stablemates of Class 333 at Neville Hill.  They would have been increasingly non-standard at Seven Kings.

 

The 379s, ordered by MacQuarie immediately after the banking crisis of 2008, are the most expensive AC traction on the network.  They were a distress purchase and their lease cost meant an inevitable goodbye.

 

For 321s to move North in meaningful quantities, Arriva would have to change its strategy.  And that would mean cancelling contracts.  The 321s are now looking for a new future, the real unexpected* homeless of this event.

 

 

* unexpected by Eversholt

Edited August 11, 2016 by 'CHARD

[nightstar.train]

I must admit I'm a bit startled to see that both the 360s and 379s - relatively new and comfortable units - are earmarked for the chop. Also the decision to replace 153s with 3-car units with a pantograph. Sheringham with a 3 car hybrid EMU?? (Felixstowe might get wired).

 

That said 2 x 3 car units, splitting at Ipswich for Peterborough/Lowestoft might make some sense - what killed the Liverpool St/Lowestofts last time round was that line occupancy on the GE mainline was so tight they couldn't afford to give an hourly path to a 3 car 170. If both the East Suffolk (post Beccles loop) and Ipswich/Peterborough go to hourly then this problem could be sidestepped.

 

The 321s have given sterling service over many years - it will be interesting to see which bit of the North gets them

I think AGA are going to be saving a lot of money on maintenance by having a uniform fleet. Their fitters only need to train on 2 1/2 types of train (as the electric and electro-diesel Flirt UK units will share an awful lot of parts), and they can also keep fewer spare parts on hand. Of course it might be a full service contract they are having with Bombardier and Stadler, in which case they're eliminating the trains not covered by that, so as to reduce costs. A uniform fleet will lead to oddities, like s 3 car electro-diesel covering for a 153, but the fleet community will make rostering a lot easier, and covering for breakdowns easier. All in all I think it's a very sensible plan. Edited August 11, 2016 by nightstar.train

['CHARD]

Their fitters only need to train on 2 1/2 types of train (as the electric and electro-diesel Flexity units will share an awful lot of parts), and they can also keep fewer spare parts on hand.

 

I agree with the whole of this post, except they're not having Flexity units (made by Bombardier), they're having FLIRT UK from the Spanwiss.

Edited August 11, 2016 by 'CHARD

[nightstar.train]

I agree with the whole of this post, except they're not having Flexity units (made by Bombardier), they're having FLIRT UK from the Spanwiss.

D'oh! Edited.

[The Stationmaster]

I'd like to know of a modern EMU other than a 442 which is nice to travel in?

Ironically I was told by a very senior abellio manager that public preferred the DRS mklls to their first class mkllls

 

Having travelled in an Abeliio Anglia M3 1st Class vehicle I'd be inclined to agree, in fact the 1st Class in an FGW Class 166 was far better than the Anglia Mk3 which rode badly, was in tatty internal condition and clearly hadn't had much of a  relationship with interior cleaning staff in the preceding couple of months.  They are old vehicles so the state of them (cleanliness apart) shouldn't be surprising but to get them right, or even to give them a really thorough internal clean, is hardly going to be a cheap or truly long term option when they have been allowed to get so bad.

 

Incidentally - albeit from only one trip (involving two trains) 3 years ago my distinct impression was that it would be a good idea if Abellio Anglia were to recruit some carriage cleaners and spend some money on cleaning equipment and materials - they (including the unit on the Harwich branch) were without a doubt the dirtiest and least cleaned train interiors of any I have encountered in Britain in the 21st century.  I know franchise awards cover far more than the small matter of keeping trains clean but on the basis of what I saw I wouldn't give that lot a franchise to look after a pushbike.

[david.hill64]

The future for the 321's is certainly interesting. They would make interesting donor vehicles for a Vivarail concept if there is sufficient life left in the bodyshells. Having the single motor car would be a drawback though.

[Glorious NSE]

A uniform fleet will lead to oddities, like s 3 car electro-diesel covering for a 153, but the fleet community will make rostering a lot easier, and covering for breakdowns easier. All in all I think it's a very sensible plan.

 

At times and on some routes those single 153s can get pretty crammed though, a capacity uplift for some routes is overdue. 

 

@Mike: it's probably not so much Abellio's fault, they've contracted the cleaning out to the lowest bidder no doubt. I've seen cleaners here that did the entire nights work with a single bucket of water   Perhaps Abellio's only fault is lack of rigorous quality control 

If they have either let a contract and done so sloppily so they have no control over quality, or let a contract properly but failed to follow up if standards are not met, either way that is down to them though...

 

The 321s are now looking for a new future, the real unexpected* homeless of this event.

153s are shaping up to be out of service earlier than any other Sprinter as well, unless the Wales and/or East Midlands franchises wants to take on a project...

 

(Northern's, AGA's and GWR's are all supposed to go under current plans...)

[Edwin_m]

The 360s are planned to join their stablemates of Class 333 at Neville Hill.  They would have been increasingly non-standard at Seven Kings.

 

The 379s, ordered by MacQuarie immediately after the banking crisis of 2008, are the most expensive AC traction on the network.  They were a distress purchase and their lease cost meant an inevitable goodbye.

 

For 321s to move North in meaningful quantities, Arriva would have to change its strategy.  And that would mean cancelling contracts.  The 321s are now looking for a new future, the real unexpected* homeless of this event.

 

 

* unexpected by Eversholt

Wouldn't Arriva also have to change its strategy to take on the 360s?  This is a new one, at least to me.  Does this include the Heathrow Connect ones? 

 

Presumably the lease on the 379s ends with the existing franchise, and if the owner wants to make any money from them after that they will have to lower their rates. 

 

Probably a good day not to be working for a ROSCO...

[Gwiwer]

153s might be snapped up by a unit-hungry GWR.  They have to somehow resource a half-hour headway Penzance - Plymouth service in 2018 with nothing currently available and trains already leaving behind through chronic lack of capacity.  Bristol area services are badly affected as well. Pompey - Cardiffs are supposed to be strengthened to 5-car (165+166) in the Great Cascade of All Things in order to assist somewhat but the electrification is behind schedule and the locals on the routes affected are already voting with their feet and swapping back to cars or buses.

 

Question without notice.  Would 321s be of any potential interest to Scotrail as they already have some similar units and will have a fleet of 314s to replace in the foreseeable future?

[Glorious NSE]

153s might be snapped up by a unit-hungry GWR.  They have to somehow resource a half-hour headway Penzance - Plymouth service in 2018 with nothing currently available and trains already leaving behind through chronic lack of capacity.

 

AGAs won't be replaced till 2019, which is too late, and even if they were available in 2018 I believe they could only run for a year or so in their current format without a complete internal rework or possibly conversion back to 155s (cost of which is likely the reason for them not appearing in future plans!) - The most recent suggestion seems to be to retain a few short formed HST sets (Scotland isn't having all of them) for Devon & Cornwall main line local work until the cascades have played themselves out...

 

Though given the updated headway is based on a resignalling which was to be substantially funded by the EU, and hasn't been started yet, i'd not be utterly shocked to see that whole plan fall on it's face...

['CHARD]

 

Question without notice.  Would 321s be of any potential interest to Scotrail as they already have some similar units and will have a fleet of 314s to replace in the foreseeable future?

 

Abellio are already having 321411-17, reduced to three car units and reclassified Class 320/4.

[caradoc]

153s might be snapped up by a unit-hungry GWR.  They have to somehow resource a half-hour headway Penzance - Plymouth service in 2018 with nothing currently available and trains already leaving behind through chronic lack of capacity.  Bristol area services are badly affected as well. Pompey - Cardiffs are supposed to be strengthened to 5-car (165+166) in the Great Cascade of All Things in order to assist somewhat but the electrification is behind schedule and the locals on the routes affected are already voting with their feet and swapping back to cars or buses.

 

Question without notice.  Would 321s be of any potential interest to Scotrail as they already have some similar units and will have a fleet of 314s to replace in the foreseeable future?

 

The 314s are already planned to be replaced, by 385s.

[stewartingram]

Although GN is of more interest to me, hope springs eternal that this may mean a shift of stock that would see us lose our dreadful 317 & 321 units. Ever since the 317s replaced 9 coach mk1's on Cambridge to London (LST in those days) services, I've despised the downgrade in quality. And finding one at the stops at KGX after a long cold night shift is so depressing. Uncomfortable seats, lack of heat, seats not lining up with windows (though I'd probably be trying to sleep), etc.

I know that we are getting 387 & 700, driver training etc is under way. But I'm still confused as to what stock is planned for services north of Cambridge. KLN trains usually split at Cambridge with a single 365 covering the northern bit. New platform signs have been erected (or maybe still in progress) showing stopping positions for the 700 units, from Cambridge to the south. I'm not aware these are going anywhere north, I believe the o/h is not capable of supplying sufficient power at this time?

 

Stewart

Edited August 11, 2016 by stewartingram

[Fenman]

Although GN is of more interest to me, hope springs eternal that this may mean a shift of stock that would see us lose our dreadful 317 & 321 units. Ever since the 317s replaced 9 coach mk1's on Cambridge to London (LST in those days) services, I've despised the downgrade in quality. And finding one at the stops at KGX after a long cold night shift is so depressing. Uncomfortable seats, lack of heat, seats not lining up with windows (though I'd probably be trying to sleep), etc.

I know that we are getting 387 & 700, driver training etc is under way. But I'm still confused as to what stock is planned for services north of Cambridge. KLN trains usually split at Cambridge with a single 365 covering the northern bit. New platform signs have been erected (or maybe still in progress) showing stopping positions for the 700 units, from Cambridge to the south. I'm not aware these are going anywhere north, I believe the o/h is not capable of supplying sufficient power at this time?

 

Stewart

How I yearn for the days of Mk2s with an RMB or even a silver service breakfast...

 

I don't think any 700s are going north of Cambridge (the original idea for KL to be a Thameslink terminus was scrapped some time ago - sensibly, in my view). 365s will be replaced by 387s.

 

I understood the short-term plan, after the Ely North upgrade was shoved into CP6, was to look at splitting/ joining EMUs at Ely rather than Cambridge. But there are still noises being muttered about other ways of meeting TSGN's contractual commitment to get KL services increased from 1tph to 2tph from early 2017.

 

But I don't think anyone has yet been very clear in public about what changes will be introduced when. Maybe it's still a work in progress?

 

Paul

[stivesnick]

Back to AGA - and looking at the new rolling stock to be ordered.

 

There doesn't appear to be enough new inter-city stock, only 10 units for the 3 London - Norwich services each hour, so do we assume that the 3rd train is a stopper formed of outer suburban stock?

 

There is a useful increase in the number of DMU vehicles - as noted above some of these services can be heavily loaded especially on a Saturday so this is a welcome increase in capacity.

 

On TSGN, my understanding is that as Fenman has noted above, Kings Cross to Ely will go half-hourly until Ely N Junction is sorted out. It will be interesting to see if the proposed Liverpool  St - Cambridge fast(er) service by AGA will tempt many people away from the GN. Will there be a price war between the two operators?

 

Nick

[Glorious NSE]

There doesn't appear to be enough new inter-city stock, only 10 units for the 3 London - Norwich services each hour, so do we assume that the 3rd train is a stopper formed of outer suburban stock?

 

My assumption is the 3rd train is covered by the 'bi-mode' units, working in multiple on the core route in the peaks and splitting to serve other destinations at other times.

[Zomboid]

I wonder if the 12 cars will actually be articulated. If they're 12 x 20m articulated they'll have to be pretty light to have a sensible axle load. Presumably the bi modes will run London to Yarmouth/ Lowestoft, which could involve the Oulton Broad swing bridge - hope that's in good nick, then.

Or we could be getting over excited by an artists impression...

[SwissRailPassion]

321s to Cardiff Valleys etc perhaps?

[nightstar.train]

I wonder if the 12 cars will actually be articulated. If they're 12 x 20m articulated they'll have to be pretty light to have a sensible axle load. Presumably the bi modes will run London to Yarmouth/ Lowestoft, which could involve the Oulton Broad swing bridge - hope that's in good nick, then.

Or we could be getting over excited by an artists impression...

Back of the envelope maths

 

A Swiss four car FLIRT weighs 120t. So we could expect the UK 12 car version to weigh 360t. Probably less as its to a smaller loading gauge so has a smaller cross section. 13 bogies per train, 26 axles. So axle load of about 14t. That gives it a NR route availability of RA3, which is pretty much go anywhere.

 

This won't be strictly accurate as its an average, the end cars will load a bit less and the middle cars a bit more. The diesel units will be a bit heavier too.

 

Slightly off topic, but I'd be interested to know what other bidders plans were, fleet wise. Presumably they had MoUs with builders too. I doubt we'll ever know, but it'd be interesting. Unless the DafT publish the bids, which I don't think they do, being commercially sensitive.

Edited August 12, 2016 by nightstar.train

[jjb1970]

They are achievable. CAF offered a compliant product for Northern, as did the diesel victor this time round.

Indeed, the emissions engineers at the engine manufacturers found the whole scare about unachievable emissions limits to be rather insulting as their position was always that if an order was placed they'd provide a solution. The issue was always a commercial one in that the industry didn't want to pay for a compliant design. I found it cringe inducing that most of the railway magazines just regurgitated what was put in front of them and fell into line to tell the world that emissions regs could not be complied with.

[Fenman]

...

Slightly off topic, but I'd be interested to know what other bidders plans were, fleet wise. Presumably they had MoUs with builders too. I doubt we'll ever know, but it'd be interesting. Unless the DafT publish the bids, which I don't think they do, being commercially sensitive.

One piece of media coverage stated that the Abellio bid was the only one offering full fleet replacement - the others were keeping a fraction of the existing fleet (I haven't read any speculation as to which bits). It would indeed be fascinating to know.

 

Paul