Hornby APPOINTS NEW CEO

[phil-b259]

I feel its way too early to judge what impact Brexit will have, good or bad, we wont know for several years.

 

Quite true

 

However if a business chooses to wait till the outcome is certain then it may be too late. To an extent that was the trouble with Monarch as by the time terrorist activity really started to disrupt their core business they didn't have a effective back up plan to fill the void in the finances. Quite what they could do is difficult to say in hindsight but trying to compete with other low cost carriers to the likes of Spain and charging unsustainably low prices to do so (hoping no doubt that the likes of Egypt would become safe for holiday makers again in the near future) was not the right approch.

 

Thus any sensible business plan will take note of emerging trends and make provisions for a number of different scenarios (good and bad) - and only a fool would discounts the possibility of a Brexit induced recession given the current state of play. I repeat, model railways are a luxury item and sales will be closely tied to the sate of the economy at large. In good times when people have money to spare they like to indulge their hobbies, but if things get tight then money must be conserved to pay for the basics. Hornby are not out of the woods yet and careful financial management is needed to ensure it has the ability to withstand any shocks that Brexit may bring to the economy.

[BrushVeteran]

There are NO shops selling any British model railway products in Denmark anyway. I have just logged on to the three first google results and searched for Peco which I thought at least might be there, but no results. (plenty of Piko, but no Peco!). I suspect it could be only amongst expat pensioners in Spain that there might be a market large enough to support in a local shop. Us who do buy UK items out here at the moment are enjoying the weak pound. But I'm afraid that this is only temporary as I predict the British manufacturers disappearing as the cost becomes too high and the leasure budget shrinks in the UK.

 

The people I feel really sorry for are Brits who model European railways. Their Fleischmann stuff must now cost a fortune to import.

Heljan's retail outlet at their head office in Sonderso had plenty of Peco and UK outline products last time I was there. I think they are even a Peco agent.

[SteveC32]

So company A can sell with a profit margin of £10 and they will shift 300 units, so a profit of £300.

 

Alternately A can sell with a profit margin of £20 and only shift 200 units, but have a profit of £400.

 

Volume does not equal profit.

 

 

 

I doubt retailers really know what is causing the changes, but it can be pretty much guaranteed that it is not a single issue.  Childhood budgets (and even teens/early 20's) aren't just available for trains but also now need to cover phones, apps, laptops, and all sorts of other things that didn't exist as necessities 20 years ago.

I beg to differ as volume does contribute to profit. Volume, margin, operational efficiency and ‘disruptive distribution’ are all factors in profitability - believe me it’s true as in my ‘day job’ I need to ensure optimal profitability in a low margin market up against tough competitors. (using your example with the price differential quoted A’s sales and gross profitability would be much higher ). The model railway market is no different to other manufacturing - retail businesses, it needs to catch up with mainstream competitive practices. It also, from a manufacturing perspective, needs to consider ROI as a key factor and that is where Hornby have an opportunity (just one example - look at the recent GWR HST and carriages - sold out, demand outstripping supply, all the tooling already existed so producing more would have improved their overall ROI and bottom line).

 

Yes ‘childhood budgets’ are spread across many things, but I think you do retailers a disservice when you say you doubt that they know what’s causing the changes, they do know and I’ve heard some say the price and range of what is available is ‘out of touch’ with what customers want and in the case of Hornby I’ve heard them say that 1 of the consultants just re-appointed bears the lions share of the responsibility for Hornby losing their way on ‘price and range’ when he was previously employed there - for far to long we modelers have been seen as the “cash cow that they can just keep on milking” but their customer base isn’t prepared to be ‘milked’ anymore

[Legend]

Yep, if your reference is who I think it is , he certainly pushed the price envelope as far as it would go. M7 and Stanier Coaches spring to mind. For years Hornby were much more expensive than Bachmann . The position is now reversed of course. And never forget the mess of ranges not clearly defined. I must admit , charming persona as he is, I'm surprised he is back.

Edited October 6, 2017 by Legend

[adb968008]

I don't think any analogy between cut prices airlines and model railways will work. Airlines essentially cut prices in order to eliminate a competitor. (Remember BA and Laker Airways?) All that would happen if Hornby sells product at less than it costs is that Hornby will have mounting losses. It wouldn't put Bachmann or anyone else out of business. There's an infinite choice of airlines, so you can choose what you spend. If you want a particular model then, except for a few duplications, you don't have a choice of manufacturer. I think it will be essential for manufacturers to keep recalibrating their prices while both the currency fluctuations and Chinese manufacturing costs are generally on the rise. (CJL)

Manufacturers can recalibrate their prices, but consumers recalibrate their spending too, which is a more difficult balance.

It might be better to recalibrate their product ranges and focus on offering products that can be afforded by the consumer, as adapting to change is the only way they will survive, ritually putting up the price is like putting your head in the sand and ignoring the problem.

 

I’m not saying cut back or sell cheap, i’m Saying if your consumer can only afford £100, then make something you can sell for £100.

 

There’s no point making something for £150, and finding it’s getting more expensive, selling less so increase it to £175... if you need justification look at the ebay madness thread it’s full of such examples.

Similarly if things aren’t selling at such lofty levels, the bargains thread also proves the point... 2 years on a B1/K1/B17 still is available discounted for £80, yet Hornby still make more at £140.. sorry it’s gone up to £160now.

http://www.hattons.co.uk/35823/Hornby_R3003_Class_B17_4_6_0_61669_Barnsley_in_BR_Green_with_late_crest/StockDetail.aspx

 

https://www.Hornby.com/uk-en/br-4-6-0-leicester-city-61665-b17-class-early-br.html

 

But if you want an example of something that sells for £100.. think j94, peckett, 14xx, P, Barclay... no complaints, no discounts and sales look good. Right now there’s a craving for industrials... leave the 4-6-x’s for a better economic climate.

 

There is a market and spenders want to spend, but not more than they have in their pocket, unfortunately whilst costs are up, the consumer wallet hasn’t, so the product size needs to come down... think Toblerone... same quality, same price, same package, just less of it.

http://fortune.com/2016/11/08/mondelez-cuts-the-size-of-toblerone-u-k-panics/

 

I’ve got a full house of B1/K1/B17’s as suspect after 2 years discounting most other people do, if they can’t get rid at £80, why bother making more, and increasing the price, let alone decide to duplicate the B17 tooling by introducing a railroad competitor to itself..isn’t that just injecting more shareholders money into the same moulding machine that injected the last Cash injection ?

Edited October 7, 2017 by adb968008

[Revolution Ben]

Oh I thought it was because of Chinese labour rates.................

Yes, exactly. Bachmann's costs increased and they realised that to survive they needed to price their models accordingly. They were pretty clear about this at the time.

 

For the airlines the costs obviously aren't Chinese labour but increasing fuel and handling charges. Against this backdrop Monarch did not increase prices. And even though they increased numbers, the corresponding drop in profitability killed them.

 

EDIT: I am inclined to agree with dibber25 that the low cost airline analogy is feeling a little strained though.

 

Either way, I'd argue that the complaints that modellers were being somehow "ripped off" when prices went up have been debunked.

 

Cheers

 

Ben A.

Edited October 6, 2017 by Ben A

[adb968008]

Yes, exactly. Bachmann's costs increased and they realised that to survive they needed to price their models accordingly. They were pretty clear about this at the time.

For the airlines the costs obviously aren't Chinese labour but increasing fuel and handling charges. Against this backdrop Monarch did not increase prices. And even though they increased numbers, the corresponding drop in profitability killed them.

EDIT: I am inclined to agree with dibber25 that the low cost airline analogy is feeling a little strained though.

Either way, I'd argue that the complaints that modellers were being somehow "ripped off" when prices went up have been debunked.

Cheers

Ben A.

The only analogy I could think that could link Hornby with Monarch is relevance.

 

Both have been around for decades.

Both were associated to their respective markets.

In both cases the market changed.

In both cases they haven’t successfully adapted to that change.

Both became less relevant to their market, both have increased costs and influences

Hornby is still here for now, but it will need to find its relevance or reshape itself considerably Inorder to thrive.

 

Feel sorry for monarch, unfortunately their pilots can’t just turn to use Ryanair either, one uses Airbus, the other Boeing..

Edited October 7, 2017 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

Manufacturers can recalibrate their prices, but consumers recalibrate their spending too, which is a more difficult balance.

It might be better to recalibrate their product ranges and focus on offering products that can be afforded by the consumer, as adapting to change is the only way they will survive, ritually putting up the price is like putting your head in the sand and ignoring the problem.

 

I’m not saying cut back or sell cheap, i’m Saying if your consumer can only afford £100, then make something you can sell for £100.

 

There’s no point making something for £150, and finding it’s getting more expensive, selling less so increase it to £175... if you need justification look at the ebay madness thread it’s full of such examples.

Similarly if things aren’t selling at such lofty levels, the bargains thread also proves the point... 2 years on a B1/K1/B17 still is available discounted for £80, yet Hornby still make more at £140.. sorry it’s gone up to £160now.

http://www.hattons.co.uk/35823/Hornby_R3003_Class_B17_4_6_0_61669_Barnsley_in_BR_Green_with_late_crest/StockDetail.aspx

 

https://www.Hornby.com/uk-en/br-4-6-0-leicester-city-61665-b17-class-early-br.html

 

But if you want an example of something that sells for £100.. think j94, peckett, 14xx, P, Barclay... no complaints, no discounts and sales look good. Right now there’s a craving for industrials... leave the 4-6-x’s for a better economic climate.

 

There is a market and spenders want to spend, but not more than they have in their pocket, unfortunately whilst costs are up, the consumer wallet hasn’t, so the product size needs to come down... think Toblerone... same quality, same price, same package, just less of it.

http://fortune.com/2016/11/08/mondelez-cuts-the-size-of-toblerone-u-k-panics/

 

I’ve got a full house of B1/K1/B17’s as suspect after 2 years discounting most other people do, if they can’t get rid at £80, why bother making more, and increasing the price, let alone decide to duplicate the B17 tooling by introducing a railroad competitor to itself..isn’t that just injecting more shareholders money into the same moulding machine that injected the last Cash injection ?

But models are what they are. I've never understood why, if one can't or won't run to a big loco, anybody thinks a small one is the answer, certainly if one already has one or more small locos. That's no more logical on a model railway than it would be on a real one. Small industrial locos are in vogue at present but there are plenty for whom they hold no interest whatever (not including me, I hasten to add) and who are stuck on big, green and named.

 

The vagaries of economic climate vary from person to person, not everyone feels the pinch at the same time and I'm told that there are some that never do.  

 

If you want (for instance) a 4-6-0 (B17?) to fill a gap in your loco roster, then another shunting tank is of no more use than the aforementioned Toblerone. Better, surely, to hang on to the cash and save up the difference to get something you actually want. In any event, the hefty discounting of B17s makes them cheaper than a lot of tank loco models.

 

We (or I, at any rate) don't need a retail fix of buying new locos at regular intervals, just because they're in the shop window. We can keep our wallets shut until we are ready. I've been doing exactly that, but continuing to set aside a monthly modelling budget, for several years now and I've always got the cash ready when one of my wish-list favourites becomes available. Hence I have (so far) been able to afford all the Bulleid Pacifics, Arthurs, S15s, 700s and Radials (and Pecketts!) that I want.  

 

Every new model needs to be "rested" after the first burst of euphoria and Hornby don't yet seem to have got the hang of "leave 'em wanting more". Too often, they have rushed out second waves of models before the first has sold through. The B17's case isn't helped by in-house duplication where the old (now Railroad) version was fairly decent anyway once they got shot of the tender drive. Was a full retool really necessary in the first place?. 

 

John

Edited October 7, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

I agree with many of your points.

The lack of rarity value certainly doesn’t help, In an industry that’s promoted to collectors.

 

The market is such now, than any operation with access to £150k can go to a website and ask a factory in China to make them a tooling, considering an average home is £225k this makes the pool of potential risk takers slightly larger than 20 years ago and as people are more willing to crowd fund, that risk further declines. Should the £ increase in strength, then this gene pool will only grow.

 

Maybe in an uncertain economy, they should size their business in a way that they are profitable without making locomotives at all, then produce in limited quantities a few releases a year ?

 

The problem with this (apart from the mass loss of jobs), is Hornby has a fortune invested in locomotive toolings.. without writing them off the only way to make a return from them is to keep using them... catch 22, especially when some are over priced relative to the markets interest to pay and one which is often becoming saturated..but one solution is to sell the toolings themselves.

Edited October 7, 2017 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

I agree with many of your points.

 

The market is such now, than any operation with access to £150k can go to a website and ask a factory in China to make them a tooling, considering an average home is £225k this makes the pool of potential risk takers slightly larger than 20 years ago and as people are more willing to crowd fund, that risk further declines. Should the £ increase in strength, then this gene pool will only grow.

 

Maybe in an uncertain economy, they should size their business in a way that they are profitable without making locomotives at all, then produce in limited quantities a few releases a year ?

 

The problem with this (apart from the mass loss of jobs), is Hornby has a fortune invested in locomotive toolings.. without writing them off the only way to make a return from them is to keep using them... catch 22, especially when they are over priced to the markets interest to pay, which is often becoming saturated..but one solution is to sell the toolings themselves.

The real need is not just to keep getting a return from the tooling, but to get a meaningful return from it.

 

If Hornby bring in a second wave of locos, whilst those from the first wave remain available, a number of possibilities ensue:

 

• The wallets of those who have already purchased the first wave haven't sufficiently recovered, so you have would-be buyers who don't act immediately.
• There are other new locos out or expected which purchasers of the first wave model will buy in preference to a second example of it.
• Those late to purchase the first wave will be more inclined to buy that in preference, especially if they anticipate having more than one eventually - they will go for the one most likely to run out soonest. The remainder of the first wave then gets discounted prematurely and the second wave ends up hanging on the shelves even when offered at greater discounts.
• Later on, this can affect further new introductions, "do I buy the heavily discounted re-run that won't be there in a couple of months, or the all-new release that probably will be?" And so the cycle continues.

The knock on effect of this should be (and I suspect is) that smaller retailers will be reluctant to order second wave models unless they were under-supplied with the first lot. The bigger ones, who have the clout generated by their sales turnover, will presumably demand a better deal up front when the pattern repeats itself.

 

So long as the first wave releases cover the costs of development, Hornby are releasing enough new models that staggering second wave releases to their advantage shouldn't be that tricky. They seem to be doing so with the Pecketts, so maybe the message has been sinking in.   

 

John

Edited October 7, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

Agreed,

 

It’s interesting to compare Hornby to its piers (large and small), there is a definite prevalence in recent times that new toolings are “feast and famine” production.

 

in the last two years we’ve seen several liveries released at once of models like : USAs (Bachmann/mr) cobo/14/14xx (hattons), J94’s (DJ), Class 05’s (Heljan) followed by famine... no follow up for a period, whilst they are soaked up.

 

In Heljans case this is almost a modus operandi, with successful models like the 17, 35 subject also to repeat “several variant” batches, followed by a pause, but it should be noted there are several instances where the result was a swamp.. 47’s were in bargain bins in the past, as were 23’s, dpu’s and more recently green 26’s.

 

So feast or famine isn’t necessarily a panacea to “a few for forever” production runs either.

 

I fall back to my original point, it’s not “how many you make how often”, but “what you make for what price”, if you’ve misread the customers apetite it doesn’t matter, what you make or when.

 

We’ve been here before, Lima made everything every month, but as soon as prices rose, they reduced production and spent heavily on new tools instead in an arms race against the others..the 156, 59, 60,66,92 all didn’t leap off the shelves when prices were high, the 67 was the straw to break the camels back, but it was the cl 92 years early that started the downfall..the demand just wasn’t there at the price point it was placed, duplication by Hornby didn’t help either.., £50 for a 92 sounds like a bargain today, but a Jubilee was £45, and a 3 car cl 110 was £40 at the time. Interesting you couldn’t give away 26’s for £12 then ..no one wanted them then either. No matter what the price.

 

Certainly more feast and famine is production efficient, but not necessarily cheaper when it’s a contract job.

 

But unless the tooling is scrapped after use, you have to assume it needs maintaining, storage fees, insuring, archiving etc.. the cost of which increases with every tool, Hornby’s range of toolings must take a considerable amount of space, way more than anyone else...which eats $$$ and earns nothing and several times in the past has been rumoured to have seen some lost or damaged, but it would be easy to understand.

 

Whilst purely speculating, imagine what the cost and value would be if a Hornby was still hanging on to tools for a Triang, Airfix, Lima and new Hornby Class 31 set of tools for decades ?, but that some real oldies have come back in the past anything is possible.

Edited October 7, 2017 by adb968008

[Shedmaster83G]

Hopefully good news.  Nice to see Simon back.

I have always thought Hornby needed Simon back with his wealth of experience from his time with H&M and through the years at Hornby.   He was always accessible.   If you 'phoned Hornby to speak to him you were put straight through and I guess the trade will welcome his return.   When I heard the news the initial association of Dapol and Lionheart came to mind with its courtship leading to a union and maybe we will see the same with Oxford and Hornby.   The forthcoming locomotive hauled Mk3s from Oxford would sit comfortably with Hornby's modern traction especially the new Class 87 due to be introduced shortly.   Whilst Hornby have been slowly upgrading their wagon fleet some items are showing their age and new underframes at the very least would improve their appearance.   The ex Airfix/Mainline Dean Goods is somewhat aged and Oxford have their model.

 

Hornby have had little involvement with special commissions until now and they are prepared to offer runs of 250 models whereas Bachmann require a higher figure.   Kernow has commissioned the Night Riviera sleeping cars in the latest livery, Rails of Sheffield have Black 5 45000 and others are following.   250 models on the shelf are easier to sell and the chances of surplus stock reduce accordingly.   Maybe we will see smaller retailers entering the market?

[dibber25]

Throughout much of my long involvement with the hobby - certainly since the 1980s - Hornby has sound back and forth like a pendulum between being a 'Hobby' company or a 'Toy' company. I recall one year at the Toy & Hobby Fair, fighting my way through a grotto of Flower Fairies to reach the trains. That was the year Hornby decided in must do something for girls. At least they didn't issue a pink locomotive, as one American firm did, with the same intention! 

I spoke recently with the owner of an independent toy shop. He said he stocks few transits nowadays and most of the customers for his quite substantial railway section are older men with money to spend and who have always wanted a model railway. I see that as not being good news for Hornby or the hobby in general in the longer term.

One thing is quite certain, though. You can't force kids to take an interest in trains. You can only expose them to the various aspect of the hobby, model and full size, and hope that something gels for longer term. For now, there are too many distractions, particularly digital and virtual. 

Finally, I think it is highly unfair to blame any one person for creating or presiding over a period of excessive price increases. Anyone who has ever worked for a company of more than about a dozen people, knows that no one person is responsible for setting a pricing policy. In most such companies the board lays down a stipulation that it requires an XX% return on investment. That sets the margin of wholesale price over production cost and the RRP is then extrapolated from that. The 'front men' in marketing are then given the job of selling and promoting the product - whether or not they feel it's doable at that price. If they can sell a bitter pill and still be seen as 'nice guys' by their customers, then they are doing well. But the one thing the marketing person can never do is to let down his guard and stop 'selling' the official company line.

(CJL) 

[dibber25]

I have always thought Hornby needed Simon back with his wealth of experience from his time with H&M and through the years at Hornby.   He was always accessible.   If you 'phoned Hornby to speak to him you were put straight through and I guess the trade will welcome his return.   When I heard the news the initial association of Dapol and Lionheart came to mind with its courtship leading to a union and maybe we will see the same with Oxford and Hornby.   The forthcoming locomotive hauled Mk3s from Oxford would sit comfortably with Hornby's modern traction especially the new Class 87 due to be introduced shortly.   Whilst Hornby have been slowly upgrading their wagon fleet some items are showing their age and new underframes at the very least would improve their appearance.   The ex Airfix/Mainline Dean Goods is somewhat aged and Oxford have their model.

 

Hornby have had little involvement with special commissions until now and they are prepared to offer runs of 250 models whereas Bachmann require a higher figure.   Kernow has commissioned the Night Riviera sleeping cars in the latest livery, Rails of Sheffield have Black 5 45000 and others are following.   250 models on the shelf are easier to sell and the chances of surplus stock reduce accordingly.   Maybe we will see smaller retailers entering the market?

Hornby's requirement for special commissions was a minimum 1,000 pieces. As Editor of Model Rail (i.e. pre-2008) I tried several times to get Mk3 sleepers in FGW livery. They eventually appeared in Hornby's standard range. If they are now willing to do runs of just 250, that is substantially less than any other manufacturer. Or are they actually runs of 1,000 with four different running Nos, for instance, making an aggregate 1,000? (CJL)

Edited October 7, 2017 by dibber25

[amwells]

Hornby's requirement for special commissions was a minimum 1,000 pieces. As Editor of Model Rail (i.e. pre-2008) I tried several times to get Mk3 sleepers in FGW livery. They eventually appeared in Hornby's standard range. If they are now willing to do runs of just 250, that is substantially less than any other manufacturer. Or are they actually runs of 1,000 with four different running Nos, for instance, making an aggregate 1,000? (CJL)

Looking at the Q1s and Black 5s for both Rails and Locomotion, each in different liveries with different features (gloss, TTS etc) it does look like the minimum quantities have been reset lower.

[adb968008]

Hornby's requirement for special commissions was a minimum 1,000 pieces. As Editor of Model Rail (i.e. pre-2008) I tried several times to get Mk3 sleepers in FGW livery. They eventually appeared in Hornby's standard range. If they are now willing to do runs of just 250, that is substantially less than any other manufacturer. Or are they actually runs of 1,000 with four different running Nos, for instance, making an aggregate 1,000? (CJL)

It looks like they will do 250 but only as an add-on to an existing run..thus far.

 

We’ve had 250 extra 33001 Q1’s on the back of the latest Q1’s

Now 250 45000 Black fives’s off the back of 45116 which is the TTS release. (I wouldn’t confuse it to 45274 as this is both different body, tender and not TTS).

 

There’s two suspiciously limited edition looking class 50’s (007 In 1985 condition (unlike previous 90’s versions, and 010) appeared on another retailers Facebook page, sure time will reveal.

 

But if 250 is the magic number as an extension to a production run, I think this is to be applauded and supported, 2018 is a big year for an anniversary, and i’m Sure a few shops would be happy to do 250 of various different end of steam black fives, 8fs,4mt and 9f’s.. and Hornbys got the tooling for all of them. I doubt there will be as big an opportunity / market to do this in 2028.

 

But in general I think there is a lot of oppourtunity for an extra 250 for retailer specifics on the back of a general release run, so hope it’s not limited to just NRM models.

Edited October 7, 2017 by adb968008

[Hilux5972]

It looks like they will do 250 but only as an add-on to an existing run..thus far.

 

We’ve had 250 extra Q1’s on the back of the latest Q1’s

No 250 Black fives off the back of 45116/45274.

 

There’s two suspiciously limited edition looking class 50’s appeared on another retailers Facebook page, sure time will reveal.

But if 250 is the magic number as an extension to a production run, I think this is to be applauded and supported, 2018 is a big year for an anniversary, and i’m Sure a few shops would be happy to do 250 of various different end of steam black fives, 8fs,4mt and 9f’s.. and Hornbys got the tooling for all of them. I doubt there will be as big an opportunity / market to do this in 2028.

Care to name that retailer so some of us can do some research?

[adb968008]

Care to name that retailer so some of us can do some research?

Sure, 50007, with GW150 unweathered with black backed nameplates, and 50010 in Large Logo Blue, with blue roof, are in the background of these images... neither of them are the Lima ones, and Hornby hasn’t done either, Kernows is known for seeding it’s background images ahead of the surprise... they had 47701 and 47076 plus a GW150 class 47 hiding in the background of the 4TC a few weeks ago,47701 was since announced.

 

https://www.facebook.com/KernowModelRailCentre/photos/pcb.1775752442466295/1775752212466318/?type=3&theater

Edited October 7, 2017 by adb968008

[sp1]

It looks like they will do 250 but only as an add-on to an existing run..thus far.

 

We’ve had 250 extra Q1’s on the back of the latest Q1’s

No 250 Black fives off the back of 45116/45274.

 

There’s two suspiciously limited edition looking class 50’s appeared on another retailers Facebook page, sure time will reveal.

But if 250 is the magic number as an extension to a production run, I think this is to be applauded and supported, 2018 is a big year for an anniversary, and i’m Sure a few shops would be happy to do 250 of various different end of steam black fives, 8fs,4mt and 9f’s.. and Hornbys got the tooling for all of them. I doubt there will be as big an opportunity / market to do this in 2028.

I thought the same when both Rails and NCiM announced models of what were appearing elsewhere in slightly different format. Good news for retailers who have the capacity to commit to 250 models?

[ruggedpeak]

Care to name that retailer so some of us can do some research?

There are announcements this month on new Hornby commissions from NRM and Rails - November Hornby mag will have details.

 

I'm not surprised Hornby have reduced the minimum quantity and are getting into commissions given the volumes Bachmann are doing, and Rapido etc. Reduces risk but still allows throughput. The market has changed and they are behind the curve. It makes a huge amount of sense to do lower volume commissions where there is no requirement for new tooling i.e. relivery jobs. After all, Bachmann is busy wearing out its 66 toolings!

[rembrow]

looks like the limited editions are being merged so that a couple of retailers have the same model type, linked to a production run, so allows lower numbers for each retailer, assuming it's cost effective to do the individual liveries. Hence Rails and Locomotion have l/e Q1s presumably linked to the recent standard release of the Q1, similarly the black 5 for Rails and Locomotion.

[dibber25]

Agreed,

 

It’s interesting to compare Hornby to its piers (large and small), there is a definite prevalence in recent times that new toolings are “feast and famine” production.

 

in the last two years we’ve seen several liveries released at once of models like : USAs (Bachmann/mr) cobo/14/14xx (hattons), J94’s (DJ), Class 05’s (Heljan) followed by famine... no follow up for a period, whilst they are soaked up.

 

In Heljans case this is almost a modus operandi, with successful models like the 17, 35 subject also to repeat “several variant” batches, followed by a pause, but it should be noted there are several instances where the result was a swamp.. 47’s were in bargain bins in the past, as were 23’s, dpu’s and more recently green 26’s.

 

So feast or famine isn’t necessarily a panacea to “a few for forever” production runs either.

 

I fall back to my original point, it’s not “how many you make how often”, but “what you make for what price”, if you’ve misread the customers apetite it doesn’t matter, what you make or when.

 

We’ve been here before, Lima made everything every month, but as soon as prices rose, they reduced production and spent heavily on new tools instead in an arms race against the others..the 156, 59, 60,66,92 all didn’t leap off the shelves when prices were high, the 67 was the straw to break the camels back, but it was the cl 92 years early that started the downfall..the demand just wasn’t there at the price point it was placed, duplication by Hornby didn’t help either.., £50 for a 92 sounds like a bargain today, but a Jubilee was £45, and a 3 car cl 110 was £40 at the time. Interesting you couldn’t give away 26’s for £12 then ..no one wanted them then either. No matter what the price.

 

Certainly more feast and famine is production efficient, but not necessarily cheaper when it’s a contract job.

 

But unless the tooling is scrapped after use, you have to assume it needs maintaining, storage fees, insuring, archiving etc.. the cost of which increases with every tool, Hornby’s range of toolings must take a considerable amount of space, way more than anyone else...which eats $$$ and earns nothing and several times in the past has been rumoured to have seen some lost or damaged, but it would be easy to understand.

 

Whilst purely speculating, imagine what the cost and value would be if a Hornby was still hanging on to tools for a Triang, Airfix, Lima and new Hornby Class 31 set of tools for decades ?, but that some real oldies have come back in the past anything is possible.

 

1 It is necessary to recoup investment before forking out for a second batch

2 It is wise to wait and see if the first batch sells before ordering a second batch.

3 Booking production slots often has to be done years in advance. You'd need to book a second slot even before delivery of the first models if you wanted to avoid 'feast and famine'.

4 The manufacturer requires a minimum number in order to produce. Thus, for instance, you can have a run of, say, 500each in 10 different liveries to give you your 5,000 run. The expenditure to get 5,000 in one go is substantial. No one in his right mind orders 5,000 more until he's seen how well the first batch goes.

Usually the return of 'oldies' means that new tools have been made because the manufacturer thinks it's worthwhile. Some models may have been retooled more than once because, the tools are worn out, some tools may have been lost in transit, the manufacturer is unable to figure out which tools are intended for which model (this was true of Hornby with both Dapol and Lima tools that were acquired).

It's a mistake to think that old tooling makes production cheap. Old tooling is just that - it may not even be usable on modern machines. If it is usable, it may produce parts which require outdated assembly techniques and skills. (CJL)

[SteveC32]

So who would like some good news about Hornby?

 

I’ve been to the Great Electric Train Show today (great show). Hornby had a pre-prod sample of the Hitachi SET and it is really good (Can’t wait to get my 2). I did ask the question about a 4 pack of carriages (as I did at Warley and recently by e-mail) and was told that the e-mail reply I had received from Marketing saying they had no plans to do them was wrong - they will be offering extra carriage packs so that we can convert a 5 carriage SET to a 9 carriage version, great news for us and Hornby - they are going to wait until the 9 car SETs are in service ‘in real life’ before doing them just in case GWR make any changes to them.

 

And more good news, if like me you’ve been waiting for a Class 60 in ‘plain’ DB Schenker red livery - when I asked the question I was told “you will like our new 2018 catalogue”.

[Mike Storey]

So who would like some good news about Hornby?

 

I’ve been to the Great Electric Train Show today (great show). Hornby had a pre-prod sample of the Hitachi SET and it is really good (Can’t wait to get my 2). I did ask the question about a 4 pack of carriages (as I did at Warley and recently by e-mail) and was told that the e-mail reply I had received from Marketing saying they had no plans to do them was wrong - they will be offering extra carriage packs so that we can convert a 5 carriage SET to a 9 carriage version, great news for us and Hornby - they are going to wait until the 9 car SETs are in service ‘in real life’ before doing them just in case GWR make any changes to them.

 

And more good news, if like me you’ve been waiting for a Class 60 in ‘plain’ DB Schenker red livery - when I asked the question I was told “you will like our new 2018 catalogue”.

 

But will they be bi-mode?  

[SteveC32]

But will they be bi-mode?

 

I would guess at yes as the ‘real thing’ will be and Hornby are deliberately holding back until the real thing is in service before committing to the production run.