Hornby 2018 Announcements

[wombatofludham]

what have I missed?

Not a lot, just more froth than there is on those weird beers you seem to like about a pixelated picture of the front cover, or not, of the 2018 Hornby catalogue which if you squint and hold it up to purple ultra-violet light shone through Mystic Mogs crystal ball, apparently might be some Southern mobile tea urn called a Lord Nelson, a class which personally only has any significance as being the source material for the superior LMS clones called Royal Scots. Thanks, Southern, the LMS will take it from here.

 

I still maintain the significance of the image was the figures watching the train are probably coming out as a Skaledale run.

Edited January 6, 2018 by wombatofludham

[7013]

Having just returned from NZ I am late into the speculation spree, so here are my predictions.

There will be lots of 'Not my era/region/interest.'

A fair smattering of ' Nothing for me'.

'They have missed a trick with that announcement'.

' I wonder if they will make this/that version.'

There will also be plenty of 'Wows,Yes!, Woohoo'

Don't think I have missed anything but please feel free to add to the list.

Being serious though; this is an important few days for our hobby and let's us hope there is something to please us all.

[Pint of Adnams]

Ian, one can only wish. Wouldn't a 4 COR and a 4 RES be great. I am unsure about a 4BUF or a 4 GRI but a 4 PUL now that would do nicely, pullmans always sell.

I'd be very happy with something 4 ME

[Hroth]

Two more days and we'll be into the land of bitter disappointment.

 

Perhaps the "New Hornby" will follow Bachmanns lead and announce models to be released within the next decade?

[adb968008]

Or hire in the expertise, which would probably be more cost effective as you then won't be paying contract rates for them - UK programmer salaries are generally about half what they are in the US and in general, and outsourcing to India is not that cost effective compared to having the expertise in house in my experience. You could likely get an excellent team leader/senior coder for about £60k, and run 3-4 graduate coders for sub £20k each under him. You could even put a graduate Producer in for about £20-25K to project manage it all properly. So your burn on that whole team would be about £15.5k a month. Outsourcing the same manpower would be generally £42k+VAT (from within the EU - you might be half that from India, but you get a whole bunch of extra issues with remote management etc.) on a monthly basis.

A project manager for £25k.. good luck.

Think some of those quoted salaries are on the low side, you might get a gap year immigrant for some of that, but would you really want to ?

£20k for a coder, I started my career coding over 20 years ago for higher rates than that.

Don’t forget whatever rate you do end up paying, with benefits, package and overheads (resources, materials... desk, phone, laptop, server support infrastructure, HR admin etc etc your looking at doubling that).

 

The industry needs an IT upgrade, but I think the technology will be lead from China than the UK, starting with a CPU and Memory on a chip, driven by battery. The basic apis can then be developed as industry standards, with some basic software and apis on the chip. Ideally this initial leg work should be developed as an open standard for all vendors to allow consistency across the market, and allow each vendors products to work on each consumers layouts.

 

Consumers, wouldn’t need too much infrastructure change, wireless charging would be the best route (you have a charging mat under your shed), and maybe supported by some replacement battery charging ability to allow swapping, and a Wi-fi router.

 

At this point each vendor goes their own way with how they develop products and control interfaces.

 

The tech for this already exists, in everyday items we carry all the time, and all over the toy market, typically costs less than a few pounds, if that. It’s just not applied to the model Railway industry, in a unified way. Maybe in February after the Chinese New Years, the model Railway manufacturers in China should hire some toy makers from the neighbouring town as well as their own with a bit of Toy making IT experience, and then work with a vendor neutral Software development manager with a decent vision of requirements, a coding background so they can guide a software team, with knowledge of the IT and model rail industry, who speaks Chinese and isn’t afraid to travel and work unsocial hours across time zones.

Edited January 6, 2018 by adb968008

[Strathwood]

It might not be British and perhaps too American instead to perhaps be bullish and support Hornby and ALL other manufacturers with their ventures, as without their optimism about at least getting their money back and hopefully a return on their investment, then the whole of our hobby will have to resort to making do with what has been manufactured to date only, or scratch build or just do without. If manufacturers and their backers decide that with all the negativity in the market or here on RM Web in some circles that the investment risk and abuse is just not worth it.

 

Late New Years resolution please everyone, glass is always half full, NEVER half empty, please.

 

Kevin

[TheSignalEngineer]

what have I missed?

 

[Mallard60022]

Not a lot, just more froth than there is on those weird beers you seem to like about a pixelated picture of the front cover, or not, of the 2018 Hornby catalogue which if you squint and hold it up to purple ultra-violet light shone through Mystic Mogs crystal ball, apparently might be some Southern mobile tea urn called a Lord Nelson, a class which personally only has any significance as being the source material for the superior LMS clones called Royal Scots. Thanks, Southern, the LMS will take it from here.

 

I still maintain the significance of the image was the figures watching the train are probably coming out as a Skaledale run.

Almost correct Mark, however it is the Bullrushes and Marsh Grass wot is going to fanfare a wide range of lineside vegetation sets in both Railroad (no leaves on the stalks, no fruit bushes, moulded buds and limited colours) and Lineside Lush (Nano Clever Tech growth, full photosynthesis enabler, vegetable, fruit and weed ranges in scale detail with the option to have the latter die off realistically after the new Q4 Weed Killing set (DC/DCC control) has been implemented on the layout. 

I can't wait.

I also have it on good authorityfor the Tin Box Planet Earth destroying and Trickery consuming locomotive enthusiast like yourself there will be a fine, new. super detailed, magnedhesion loco/train cleaning Plant with genuine froth and suds unit (DC/DCC) with paint rotting setting for those down Laira way. Pleasingly the new Mk3 Coach range will also come with paint finish deterioration option.

Roll on Monday eh?

Sincerely,

Imin Barwell

[Mallard60022]

It might not be British and perhaps too American instead to perhaps be bullish and support Hornby and ALL other manufacturers with their ventures, as without their optimism about at least getting their money back and hopefully a return on their investment, then the whole of our hobby will have to resort to making do with what has been manufactured to date only, or scratch build or just do without. If manufacturers and their backers decide that with all the negativity in the market or here on RM Web in some circles that the investment risk and abuse is just not worth it.

 

Late New Years resolution please everyone, glass is always half full, NEVER half empty, please.

 

Kevin

Fear not dear heart, we all love both Box Co's and it is only Scelextric Trolls that post negativity on here in the frantic hope that they might get some decent vehicles that don't fly off the Super 3 Track they have had to endure for 50 years. (Actually they are not aware the Peco are about to introduce a decent track/road range for the slotty market.)

My glass is always half full and that perhaps explains why I post such carp on here.

Blessings

Phil

[81C]

Stand by for 50 pages of bleating, stained under pants and a rather a lot of dummies strewn around the countryside.

[Pint of Adnams]

A project manager for £25k.. good luck.

Think some of those quoted salaries are on the low side, you might get a gap year immigrant for some of that, but would you really want to ?

£20k for a coder, I started my career coding over 20 years ago for higher rates than that.

Don’t forget whatever rate you do end up paying, with benefits, package and overheads (resources, materials... desk, phone, laptop, server support infrastructure, HR admin etc etc your looking at doubling that).

 

The industry needs an IT upgrade, but I think the technology will be lead from China than the UK, starting with a CPU and Memory on a chip, driven by battery. The basic apis can then be developed as industry standards, with some basic software and apis on the chip. Ideally this initial leg work should be developed as an open standard for all vendors to allow consistency across the market, and allow each vendors products to work on each consumers layouts.

 

Consumers, wouldn’t need too much infrastructure change, wireless charging would be the best route (you have a charging mat under your shed), and maybe supported by some replacement battery charging ability to allow swapping, and a Wi-fi router.

 

At this point each vendor goes their own way with how they develop products and control interfaces.

 

The tech for this already exists, in everyday items we carry all the time, and all over the toy market, typically costs less than a few pounds, if that. It’s just not applied to the model Railway industry, in a unified way. Maybe in February after the Chinese New Years, the model Railway manufacturers in China should hire some toy makers from the neighbouring town as well as their own with a bit of Toy making IT experience, and then work with a vendor neutral Software development manager with a decent vision of requirements, a coding background so they can guide a software team, with knowledge of the IT and model rail industry, who speaks Chinese and isn’t afraid to travel and work unsocial hours across time zones.

And can you imagine the chaos at shows/exhibitions etc. when the mad hacker hiding in the lavs curls up his little finger and puts it to his mouth, muttering ' for 1 hundred thousand million pounds I will not crash all your toys into each other - he-he-he'.

[phil gollin]

.

 

I think we should take guesses when the real info gets out.  It will be nominally at 10:00 AM, but every year there tends to be a "leak" (either from a retailer or magazine site) and this means that the RMWeb announcement thread is de-classified early.

 

My guess is 9:20 AM

 

.

[Mallard60022]

.

 

I think we should take guesses when the real info gets out.  It will be nominally at 10:00 AM, but every year there tends to be a "leak" (either from a retailer or magazine site) and this means that the RMWeb announcement thread is de-classified early.

 

My guess is 9:20 AM

 

.

That is due to the age/disposition of many of the frothers. Too much excitemment and the Bladder, "She canna take it Jim!".

Doc Robert

Edited January 6, 2018 by Mallard60022

[Dunsignalling]

That is due to the age/disposition of many of the frothers. Too much excitemment and the Bladder, "She canna take it Jim!".

Doc Robert

You really aren't helping with that, Phil.   

[Mallard60022]

.

 

I think we should take guesses when the real info gets out.  It will be nominally at 10:00 AM, but every year there tends to be a "leak" (either from a retailer or magazine site) and this means that the RMWeb announcement thread is de-classified early.

 

My guess is 9:20 AM

 

.

Good shout there Phil. I'll be bold and go for something slipping out just before the a.m. Shipping Forecast (R4).....................................................................followed by the above described leak .....................................................................................................and then an A. York Siren Alarm at 08.30.

D. Trump.

[Mallard60022]

You really aren't helping with that, Phil.   

Sorry, rather selfish as I am already equipped to absorb (for this morning at least). Apologies if your valves are leakning.

C. Ommode  

[Mallard60022]

If - a big if - we are to see a fart cart this year I would expect a Swindon Cross Country as it has been a high polling item on the annual wishlist for some time. Having said that I can see how the 104 would develop from their current Class 110 although I'd expect Bachmann to possibly cop that unit as it's just about the last extensively used class of 57ft DMU they haven't used their DMU chassis under.

Sorry, I missed the wonderful "fart cart". Puts Bog cart into second place and truly describes the sound of whatever they were climbing out of Sheffield Midland on the Donny line in the late 70s.

Phil

[The Stationmaster]

Or hire in the expertise, which would probably be more cost effective as you then won't be paying contract rates for them - UK programmer salaries are generally about half what they are in the US and in general, and outsourcing to India is not that cost effective compared to having the expertise in house in my experience. You could likely get an excellent team leader/senior coder for about £60k, and run 3-4 graduate coders for sub £20k each under him. You could even put a graduate Producer in for about £20-25K to project manage it all properly. So your burn on that whole team would be about £15.5k a month. Outsourcing the same manpower would be generally £42k+VAT (from within the EU - you might be half that from India, but you get a whole bunch of extra issues with remote management etc.) on a monthly basis.

 

However if they are directly employed you need, as an absolute minimum, to double the salary number in order to arrive at the actual full employment cost including overheads.  Thus your £15.5K per month would immediately double although costs would be reduced by using self-employed contractors.

[Caledonian]

Given the number of models sloshing around on every side, a really bold announcement would be nothing new apart from new liveries on existing tooling, but... all prices slashed dramatically.

[Downer]

Why is it that announcement threads always end up sounding like a bunch of geriatric five year-olds trapped in a lift? 

[frobisher]

(not counting other overhead expenses that you have excluded in your assessment like social security and pensions).

Whilst I didn't figure in pensions (because of the way those work and the optionality of it all...) I did include Employer's NI in those figures - not my first rodeo

 

Hornby presumably employs some software people already, but I suspect this company would struggle to absorb a software team suitable for handling big new projects in an area that is not an institutional core competence, so they'd have to hire a superstar to lead the team.

Er, that's what I costed for

 

Even at the £120k pa you suggest, with present margins, those software products would need to return an incremental £700k annually in revenue to be in the neighbourhood - we could argue that software margins can be much less (and I would agree) but it's a tricky prospect all the same and accounting rules where people are unfamiliar with such things complicates it a lot.

Given it's R&D, you can offset maybe up to 30% of the labour costs in any case under HMRC rules in the first year or so. You don't need those ludicrous margins (year one anyway, you have no product...). Accountants are adaptable, or at least GOOD ones are...

 

The eLink and Railmaster retails for £100 on the website (rounded up). Assuming similar pricing for new software, you'd have to sell 7,000 items per year to achieve that revenue. I don't see it in a culture where people are accustomed to free (or almost free) downloads.

You'd be surprised is all I'm saying. If it's good, people will pay for the software, especially if keenly priced.

[frobisher]

A project manager for £25k.. good luck.

Yup, perfectly doable for a graduate.

 

Think some of those quoted salaries are on the low side, you might get a gap year immigrant for some of that, but would you really want to ?

£20k for a coder, I started my career coding over 20 years ago for higher rates than that.

These rates are perfectly doable (yes, at the low end I will admit) with high quality UK graduates if you know where to look, and mostly what you want are NOT computer science graduates, but those from the more vocational programming courses who have actually produced software on platform during their education.

[frobisher]

However if they are directly employed you need, as an absolute minimum, to double the salary number in order to arrive at the actual full employment cost including overheads.  Thus your £15.5K per month would immediately double although costs would be reduced by using self-employed contractors.

I'm hard pressed to see where you'd need to double the figure (as noted above, I've already figured in one of those overheads). Maybe 25-50% tops. Self-employed contractors WILL cost you more, not less. You just gain some flexibility.

Edited January 6, 2018 by frobisher

[Hroth]

Why is it that announcement threads always end up sounding like a bunch of geriatric five year-olds trapped in a lift? 

Because......  

[Mallard60022]

Why is it that announcement threads always end up sounding like a bunch of geriatric five year-olds trapped in a lift? 

Good question there. Do you mean a tail lift or stair lift?

Mo Billy Taids