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Hornby 2019 Speculation


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Hello everyone

 

Slightly off topic, but a clarification that some may find useful.

 

neilkirby is no doubt referring to the period around the mid-50s (Red & Cream Maunsell sets with BR-numbered 2P).

 

At that time, the covers of relevant BR publications read: British Railways Southern Operating Area (Southern District), Somerset & Dorset Line.

 

Within the text pages, the abbreviation S&D was used.

 

Brian

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The only tankie you list with more than ten members was the W - and ( ignoring occasional posting of a Z in Kent ) that's the one with the widest geographical coverage ..... so that's my guess - though I feel a 4-4-0 or U Boat is far more likely to appear from Hornby someone.

According to 'Maunsell Locomotives' by Brian Haresnape, the Z class made it as far as....................wait for it......................Scotland! Numbers 951/5/6 were loaned in 1942/3 and seen at war department depots at Cairnryan and Stranraer. Still not worth an r-t-r model though as mainly a depot shunter. Looking back over the Hornby product history I think only the L1 and D49 are still awaiting an upgrade. All others have had a re-issue by Hornby or someone else. 

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According to 'Maunsell Locomotives' by Brian Haresnape, the Z class made it as far as....................wait for it......................Scotland! Numbers 951/5/6 were loaned in 1942/3 and seen at war department depots at Cairnryan and Stranraer. Still not worth an r-t-r model though as mainly a depot shunter. Looking back over the Hornby product history I think only the L1 and D49 are still awaiting an upgrade. All others have had a re-issue by Hornby or someone else. 

 

As a revolving pedant, I wouldn't have described the Maunsell Zs as a depot shunter; they were very specifically designed for hump marshalling yard work, which required very powerful loco to be able to propel a changing load at a steady low speed over the hump.  Feltham, Fratton, and the like were their haunts, with some being employed as bankers between the two Exeter stations St David's and Central.

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Seeing lots of calls for Southern engines for Hornby - yet have to wonder if that's wise. The market here is over saturated with products and choices, with many small companies, start ups and magazines doing yet more for the area.

 

Polling and discussions combined have shown that people modelling the area will buy more than one pre-grouping company engine given they were so small in geographical coverage compared to some other much larger pre-grouping companies that had steam also last till the very end.

 

In light of that, would it be best for Hornby to produce yet more for an area that has stiff competition and possible delays to the sales of engines when they are released. Some engines done for other areas, like the Duchess sold really well and brought in a quick return of cashflow. I'm sure that Hornby's creditors will be looking for more results like that rather than push into an area that has sold well in the past but now seems crowded.  

 

Something to think about... :scratchhead:

.

 

Southern area locos and coaches seem still to be selling well (no one really knows other than the manufacturers).

 

Certainly the last three major releases,  the H1, H2 and Lord Nelson have all done well.    So they "should" try more.

 

IF other area locos sell out on pre-release, or soon after release, then that will encourage manufacturers to try those areas  -  so encourage people to buy the locos on pre-order  -  THAT is the way to encourage manufacturers to produce items for a different area, not trying to stop people producing Southern area ones.

 

.

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Hello everyone

 

Slightly off topic, but a clarification that some may find useful.

 

neilkirby is no doubt referring to the period around the mid-50s (Red & Cream Maunsell sets with BR-numbered 2P).

 

At that time, the covers of relevant BR publications read: British Railways Southern Operating Area (Southern District), Somerset & Dorset Line.

 

Within the text pages, the abbreviation S&D was used.

 

Brian

 

:offtopic:  Yes but as pointed out the abbreviation is wrong.

 

While you can be forgiven for using it from time to time it should be done knowing full well that S&D correctly means Stockton and Darlington. Its fun to tease and joke about each others interests, but personally speaking the original Stockton and Darlington railway system included a line far more worthy of the cult status that the Somerset & Dorset line ended up with - and that is Stainmore. While there was always going to be a line that was going to be the one that ended up being decried more than others when the lines were closed, the Somerset and Dorset ended up being the one, thanks just as much to the Southern vs Western debate that got mixed into its history as much as being ripped up. People have rallied around its status long after its gone, being a point for people to show knowledge and debate.

 

Meanwhile, the true S&D like many things up north, gets overlooked. Stainmore was a far more impressive route and structure, tackling gradients and loads that made the Somerset and Dorset pale in comparison.

 

Maybe Hornby might surprise us all by doing engines that fit both descriptions. Here's hoping... :friends:

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'Within' being the operative word: the abbreviation is fine in that defined context.

 

But in general unqualified use S&D = Stockton and Darlington.

Hello 34

 

In the context quote by neilkirby, it can't be other than the S&D (line). To be more precise, I was more making the point to Mike that - in the mid-50s - it was the S&D Line, not the Somerset & Dorset Joint Railway. 

 

Brian

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Meanwhile... other things to consider -

 

Cost of units rising with some competitors. Could Hornby undercut them by doing a similar model and then take the market share with something that comes out cheaper?

 

How about a Voyager from Hornby rather than Bachmann?

 

I wonder if that approach would fill their need to get in profitable revenue?  Basically what they need is things that will sell well and make a profit, on total costs, in Year 1 - in other words the Holy Grail.  They might still stand a chance of achieving that by volume but I suspect they would still have t do a pretty good tooling job (i.e. expensive) to attract the full potential market - which in effect means something like the Peckett if they can repeat that trick and make a good enough return on it.  But in many respects it doesn't matter what they announce as long as there is a good market for it at the right price point and they can then deliver it as promised and by promised date - and the latter seems to have been something of a difficulty of late.

 

To do really well I reckon that some of the 2019 range might well be in the shops fairly early in the year and if they've got things right there ought to be a steady flow of 'new' models over the entire year with a peak in November/December to achieve a decent continuing cash flow and, hopefully, help cover current costs. 

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I wonder if that approach would fill their need to get in profitable revenue?  Basically what they need is things that will sell well and make a profit, on total costs, in Year 1 - in other words the Holy Grail.  They might still stand a chance of achieving that by volume but I suspect they would still have t do a pretty good tooling job (i.e. expensive) to attract the full potential market - which in effect means something like the Peckett if they can repeat that trick and make a good enough return on it.  But in many respects it doesn't matter what they announce as long as there is a good market for it at the right price point and they can then deliver it as promised and by promised date - and the latter seems to have been something of a difficulty of late.

 

To do really well I reckon that some of the 2019 range might well be in the shops fairly early in the year and if they've got things right there ought to be a steady flow of 'new' models over the entire year with a peak in November/December to achieve a decent continuing cash flow and, hopefully, help cover current costs. 

 

Agreed. The thing is to find the model that can satisfy both demand but also bring in the right funds. Historically Hornby have always been able to bring in prices under that of Bachmann, when it comes to big engines made. Previously the medium size engines were about the same, but Bachmanns prices are pulling ahead. You look at the cost of the class 37 and 47 and they are rising significantly over time, with small runs effecting the price of second hand goods on the market there too, but thats another issue. 

 

You look at the cost of models like the Realtrack 156, the Bachmann 158 and you think maybe there is room for Hornby to do a model that could enter that market and be brought under in terms of price. Looking at the tooling options I think the 185 might be an option here and could actually see Hornby doing it well. 

 

Other engines such as the P2/2 (that has half of it done already), the J21 onto the chassis of the J36, could offset the cost of development by using what they have. If not, Hornby could look to a follow up industrial too, but they need another Duchess and Peckett type event for 2019 for quick cashflow and to give the company some funds to overset the costs of some of the recent history. Thats why I really think Hornby should avoid the crowded Southern market - and it is very crowded - as their Southern stuff isnt shifting. Time to find the gaps in the market that are wanting attention and give them what they want. Maybe thats what Andy saw which gave him confidence in whats to come. Not long to find out now... 

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'Fraid not...

 

 

So, putting the clues from those closer to being in the know that I am:

 

A surprising thing?

From south of the Thames?

Yellow?

 

Perhaps: something preserved, pre-grouping and pretty?

 

post-14707-0-99827900-1546547514_thumb.jpg

 

Stroudley's LB&SCR B1 0-4-2 Gladstone?

 

post-14707-0-28332100-1546550265_thumb.jpg

Edited by MrTea
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O gauge class 37

 

O gauge coaches

 

And, an O gauge 03

 

Don't ask me why, but I think O gauge is the next big thing (pun intended)

 

Ian.

Heljan do an O Gauge 37 and are doing an 03

 

Heljan also do Mark 1 coaches, as do Darstead and are forthcoming from Lionheart/Dapol

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So, putting the clues from those closer to being in the know that I am:

 

A surprising thing?

From south of the Thames?

Yellow?

 

Perhaps: something preserved, pre-grouping and pretty?

 

attachicon.gifIMG_4871.jpg

 

Stroudley's LB&SCR B1 0-4-2 Gladstone?

 

If we're going with this yellow theme then the real surprise would be something from the M&GN! (I can dream, right?)

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...or if you consider that the clues could relate to a couple of models, possibly coupled with the idea that someone at Hornby has been looking back nostalgically into their back-catalogue (with half an eye to previous best-sellers)

A retooled Princess to appeal to those who started with a Triang model?

A reworked A3 Flying Scotsman for those of us who started with a train set in the 1970s or early 80s?

A completely new Stephenson’s Rocket in 00 to make the most of new advances in motor technology?

The last one would certainly be a surprise, it’s never featured prominently on wish list polls that I’m aware of BUT it has iconic status worldwide AND the red box guys have previous history in both small and large scales.

 

The only problem with the Rocket in the 2019 range is they'd be 10 years too early for the bi-centenary in 2029!

post-14707-0-01804800-1546550164_thumb.jpg

 

Edited by MrTea
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