Bachmann 2019 Speculation

[Clearwater]

I think yesterdays announcement has made a Dapol Manor less likely.

Dapol have paid the price for going public too early on the 61xx and Terrier.

Hornby stated they heard someone was doing it and decided to “cut steel” on theirs in response to the threat.

 

Both Hornby and Bachmann could do a Manor very quickly and cheaply using some of their existing parts for other toolings.

Given the long development lead time, and knowing its an easy guess it might be in the works, is it worth the risk ?

 

Hornbys statement introduces greater risk for competitors... speak too soon they will take you on, dont speak up early enough you wont know if the idea is a good one or not.

 

I prefer new toolings of unmodelled types than re-runs or duplications of recent-old so I am hoping for a Saint or a County rather than a Manor next week from Bachmann, I am hoping they choose not to retool the class 55.

I suspect Dapol had heard the same rumours about a retool by H of the prairie and were gambling that by announcing early they could force Hornby to abandon. I think it was their only logical strategy. I also wonder how much they have actually spent between announcing and now. I’ll wager whilst an amount they won’t want to write off, it won’t be substantial.

[D6975]

I did the same, Model Railways direct are now my box shifter of choice.

 

Me too, but I live in Bristol so a firstday bus ticket gets me to their shop. This has the added bonus that I can see stuff in the flesh before I buy.

I used to split between Liverpool and Sheffield, more or less 50:50.

 

ps  as for predictions re Bachmann’s newbies:

Steam loco: standard 2MT an obvious development of the LMS version therefore quite unlikely especially as they haven’t already done it – many expected it to appear just after the mickey mouse but no…

Diesel loco: don’t think they’ll announce anything except new liveries.

Electric loco:  class 81 possibly

DMU/EMU:  A 120 is the obvious choice and therefore quite unlikely.  The 304/305/308 family is an outsider as is the 313/314/315/507/508 family.

Coaches:  Sliding door Mk3s 

Edited January 8, 2019 by D6975

[mdvle]

Are you aware that Hattons nows supplies it's own brand models to other retailers and has launched its own brand of scenic materials? This is about rather more than just class 66's. Hattons appear to have deliberately targeted a number of key lines of Bachmann's business. And unlike Hornby, Bachmann have no direct sales process or access to major high street retailers to fall back on nor do they have the brand recognition that Hornby have. Hattons' action seem to pose a serious threat to Bachmann's business. Look at the likes of Uber and others - if Hattons dominate both retail and manufacture we the modellers will lose out. Suckered by cheap 66's we damage Bachmann.

 

Do the math - a simple business strategy would be take out the weaker/more exposed of the two main manufacturers, replace them in the marketplace and then produce the newly tooled 37's etc. However without serious competition prices won't be £150 a loco but something more akin to Roco or Fleischmann. Then the squealing will really start!

 

Be careful what you wish for. I hope Bachmann come out fighting next week.

 

1) no one is being "suckered" by cheap 66's - the Hatton's 66 is being bought because it is a newly tooled model that is being done to a higher level of detail than the existing Bachmann model, and it is being offered in a broad range of liveries that customer actually want instead of an artificial restriction of a couple that suit the manufacturer.  The fact that they are cheaper is nice, but if price was really the determining factor then Hornby's announcement yesterday would be a far bigger threat.

 

2) Whether Bachmann (or Hornby for that matter) like it or not the UK market is undergoing a significant change and they can either adapt or suffer.  Just look at Accurascale - offering a highly detailed Deltic for less than the Bachmann 66.  Regardless of what one feels about how the market should operate Accurascale has demonstrated in their first year of operation(*) that they can announce and delivery an ambitious program of product and at a very competitive price, a price in part possible because they for the most part like a lot of new businesses do most of their selling direct.  Not only is this a threat to Bachmann, but also to Hattons as Hattons can't sell what isn't made available to retailers.  If Hornby / Bachmann can't provide product at what is a competitive price then of course Hatton's is going to look at doing so themselves.

 

3) Hatton's are unlikely to dominate both - as demonstrated by the number of new entrants to the market in the last decade the shift to China and direct selling has made making product much easier.

 

4) as mentioned previously by someone else, Bachmann and Walthers have co-existed for decades in America despite having a similar relationship to what Hattons is now doing - Walthers is a manufacturer / retailer / distributor who has carried Bachmann and many other products over the decades while also being a competitor.

 

5) Bachmann could, if they wanted, start selling direct in a matter of weeks.  Getting into online selling is not difficult.

 

(*) yes, their first loco still has the jury out given no one has touched or operated yet

[ThaneofFife]

I wonder if Bachmann just do their own thing or have a "plan B" up their metaphoric sleeve so soon after the Hornby announcement to tweak their range accordingly?

 

For example with Hornby announcing (rather surprisingly) new Mk2f coaches in ScotRail colours will that prompt Bachmann to compete with similar versions or would that perhaps disuade them and maybe go for say an Anglian DBSO with matching Mk2s for that instead?

 

No new Class 86/2 from Hornby that many were hoping for so is that green lights all the way for Bachmann to grab that low fruit?  Is it too closely related to the new 86/0 due from Heljan who have openly said they will think about later versions?

 

Just makes you think how these interesting decisions are made...…...granted some might be made 6, 12 or 24 months previously but you would think that any business builds in some flex to those plans if needs be. 

[DRS Crewe On A Mission]

I wonder if Bachmann just do their own thing or have a "plan B" up their metaphoric sleeve so soon after the Hornby announcement to tweak their range accordingly?

 

For example with Hornby announcing (rather surprisingly) new Mk2f coaches in ScotRail colours will that prompt Bachmann to compete with similar versions or would that perhaps disuade them and maybe go for say an Anglian DBSO with matching Mk2s for that instead?

 

No new Class 86/2 from Hornby that many were hoping for so is that green lights all the way for Bachmann to grab that low fruit?  Is it too closely related to the new 86/0 due from Heljan who have openly said they will think about later versions?

 

Just makes you think how these interesting decisions are made...…...granted some might be made 6, 12 or 24 months previously but you would think that any business builds in some flex to those plans if needs be. 

 

I agree. I have been thinking that their may be adjustments to the Bachmann announcements following Hornby's announcements yesterday. Which is a good opportunity to have and some potentially wise adjustments and decisions could be made. 

[steve1023]

Bachmann (Farish) infuriate me with their lack of support for the Farish 4CEP by following it up with, say the 2HAP in the same way they have done with the OO 4CEP or even the way they are following up the class 85 with the 90 in supporting AC traction however without Bachmann taking the plunge I seriously doubt we would have any SR EMUs at all, so I will continue to support Bachmann by buying their products, even if the tooling is slightly older than some others.

 

I look forward to Monday's announcements, but like others I don't hold my breathe for my personal desires.

 

Steve

['CHARD]

I agree. I have been thinking that their may be adjustments to the Bachmann announcements following Hornby's announcements yesterday. Which is a good opportunity to have and some potentially wise adjustments and decisions could be made. 

 

One week, under five working days.  Really?  These could only be tiny adjustments, surely?  The company has spent 51 weeks so far getting the announcement lined up, and yet some imagine that it can materially change between Hornby's announcement of yesterday, artwork done, serial numbers allocated, prices set, be signed off by the board and prepared for issue...

[DRS Crewe On A Mission]

One week, under five working days.  Really?  These could only be tiny adjustments, surely?  The company has spent 51 weeks so far getting the announcement lined up, and yet some imagine that it can materially change between Hornby's announcement of yesterday, artwork done, serial numbers allocated, prices set, be signed off by the board and prepared for issue...

 

Maybe not, I was just purely speculating. I wasn't thinking of the time just more of the initial thought of could it change? 

[RedgateModels]

Please no Standard 2  or 3 mogul, I've spent enough this year already .....

[90rob]

Please no Standard 2  or 3 mogul, I've spent enough this year already .....

 

2019?...I used to have that problem...now I use a 'rolling' year...it seems to help...

[RedgateModels]

Yep, Hornby "Sherwood" with probable wagon to match, Accurascale Deltic, sound chips for Sherwood and two for my O gauge fleet not to mention my foray into Narrow Gauge Boxfile modelling .....

[Dunsignalling]

Taking your reference to the word "innovation" out of that (assuming I have the context correct and that you wasn't meaning innovation in terms of ability to deliver) I think it could be construed as very unfair to say Bachmann have not been leaders in innovation.   

 

Purely from a D&E aspect they have come out with the superb Class 85 loco (Innovative in terms that it knocked the poor Heljan Class 86 into a cocked hat for its right first time accuracy and detail and functions), the class 90 electric is coming soon with a DCC operated pantograph and correct dcc lighting functionality, interior lighting on the 350 EMU, Blue Pullman and other units, dcc on board coaches with tail lamp options, DBSO Mk2f with various lighting functions, sprung loco buffers, superb Mk2f coach interior detail, dare I say it - pioneers of a the first RTR close couplings mechanisms for rolling stock, loco engine room lighting and I believe they were the first 00 gauge RTR manufacturer to pioneer diesel cab interior lighting functions,  easily accessible decoder spaces by means of removable roof panels, access to DC switches via removable parts (ie; the Class 85)...….there must be loads more examples. Bachmann seem to do many "firsts" and long may that tradition continue.  Always nice when they hit us with a surprise new "trick".

 

Apologies if I have misinterpreted you though...….

The "innovation" to which I was alluding was for Bachmann to announce  an all-new model and release it within a calendar year (even two would do)..... 

 

I have to admit that all the innovative D&E "tricks" went straight over my head as none of the products mentioned fall into my spheres of interest. I do have a 10000 but had to tape over the contacts for the cab lights as it isn't possible for non-DCC users to switch them off.

 

The close couplers on coaches would have been great if only Bachmann had conformed to the laid down NEM standard that I was already following. As it was I had to spend a fair amount of time and cash to make my Mk1s compatible with my other stock.  

 

I own many highly satisfactory Bachmann locos/coaches/wagons, and genuinely wish them well. However, as I get older, the interminable wait for them to deliver promised new products becomes increasingly frustrating. If they can't deliver something inside two years from announcement they should really keep quiet, IMHO.

 

John

Edited January 8, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[wombatofludham]

I think we need to be a bit cautious about next week's announcement as we need to think back 2-3 years to remember where Bachmann and the market "wish lists" were.  One thing I think might be likely is an upgraded Voyager using the new Class 170 chassis, as I expect Bachmann will see that as a "banker" especially if they incorporate a Meridian tooling option.  Steam wise I wouldn't be surprised to see a reheated DCC compatible Manor and Mogul, but not a lot else although I do hope for a proper red Fowler Compound.  The "damaged, missing in action" flush front Class 45 tooling is currently a hot topic, but again was it three years ago? I honestly can't remember.

It was also about three years ago I heard a rumour of a Class 310 emu "being looked at" although that could equally mean "being looked at and rejected", but that might be a left field possibility especially as it nicely spans the AL5 to Class 90 age range.  Bachmann have form for developing new niche markets when the naysayers are talking them down, e.g. the Desiro, and no-one has committed to a 1960s OH emu yet so it's an open goal, however it would be a brave and hefty commitment to funding if it has taken place, especially given how things were three years ago.

So, I think I'll pitch my expectations low this year and hope to be surprised.

[gibbsrule3]

I hope they have something good, or I'll be getting more accurascale deltic as Hornby not doing much.

A freightliner 47, original freight 47 & sealed beam peak will do.

[gibbsrule3]

I’ll second the sealed beam peak , I’d think two variations are easily catered for flush front with just the sealed marker lights then the later headlight fitted , I’m sure they would sell like hot cakes on a cold day . Maybe Hattons will take this one on next ?!

Oh can we have an as built (shove)47/7 in rail blue and/or large logo ...

Andy H

[Ragtag]

I'd like to see their Thomas range becoming available in the UK

[mdvle]

I wonder if Bachmann just do their own thing or have a "plan B" up their metaphoric sleeve so soon after the Hornby announcement to tweak their range accordingly?

 

 

It all depends on where in the production pipeline the planned product announcements are, and if there is anything printed that makes dropping problematic.

 

In the case of Hornby yesterday, several of their announced new items are already well advanced with much of the tooling done and at least first EP samples shown, and for some decoration samples shown.  In those cases, regardless of who is involved, the ability to change direction is limited given that the money has been spent.

 

If Bachmann has planned a similar announcement policy, with new items already tooled for quick release, their ability to tweak will be limited.

 

On the other hand if a model is only at the CAD or research stage, then the ability to drop / delay is an easier though not automatic decision to make as the sunk costs are significantly less.

 

More specific to this, Bachmann is big enough that they likely have a number of projects at various points in the research stage (not all of which would necessarily ever get made regardless of what the competitors do) so at least theoretically a product that is only at the research stage could be swapped with something else based on what Hornby had done.

 

I suspect though that the bigger danger is that both Hornby and Bachmann appear to be trying to throw their weight around and don't seem to be concerned with duplication.  Bachmann have so far continued with several projects despite competitors bring product to market prior to tooling starting (if I recall correctly), and at least one of Hornby's announcements yesterday they proceeded to tooling despite knowing a competitor was proceeding.

 

Based on that I could see Bachmann theoretically continuing with Scotrail Mk2s, or adding them in response to Hornby and to not give market to Hornby.

[autocoach]

Bachmann should head in a totally different direction: The Highland with a little Ben and a Jones Goods. Let Hornby take the low road to the south....Ye take the High(land) Road...

[Class 74]

I just want a Arriva 158... pleeeeaaaaaaaazzzzzzeeeeeeee

 

...and some Ironclad stock for my Southern steamers... or Balloon Coaches...   

[micklner]

They have just pulled the plug on a revised J39 and a n gauge J72 . Stating not  financially viable to produce.

 

 

Realistically not a lot to expect in the short term, so much is already seriously overdue. As to anything announced, how long before any of it will actually be available.

Edited January 8, 2019 by micklner

[locoholic]

Bachmann's New Year announcements are becoming like a political manifesto: sounds nice, but not to be taken too seriously as a guide to the near future.

[tractor_37260]

MK2D/MK2E's from Bachmann anyone ? now that would be a head to head....!!

[phil gollin]

.

 

I don't know that I expect much from Bachmann - they have so many outstanding items.

 

Maybe one "headline" item, and a few re-liveries.

 

.

[County of Yorkshire]

They have just pulled the plug on a revised J39 and a n gauge J72 . Stating not  financially viable to produce.

 

 

Realistically not a lot to expect in the short term, so much is already seriously overdue. As to anything announced, how long before any of it will actually be available.

 

I'm afraid that I quite simply have to agree. My wallet has been open for a long while now for a GWR 94xx, warflats, the steam crane and possibly even a MR 1F 4-4-0, and yet do we see any discernible signs of progress? The answer ranges from barely to often none.

 

I do struggle to take Bachmann's annual announcements seriously anymore; how can you get excited for something that genuinely might not see the light of day for more than three calendar years? The consistent shifting of RRP's uphill also grates too; not that we'll ever know, but I bet there's about a theoretical £100 difference between the RRP for the steam crane had it emerged in, say, 2016, to when it finally appears in what... 2020/2021? 

 

 

One would think that Kader had shunted Bachmann UK down their list of priorities by quite a way. 

 

CoY 

Edited January 8, 2019 by County of Yorkshire

[Torn-on-the-platform]

I kind of agree with the sentiments about not wanting new tooling announced as it will mean quite a long wait and might prevent another manufacturer from doing so - though a SR U class and Standard 2MT tank/2-6-0 would make excellent Bachmann models based on their similar products.

 

I'd quite like to see some GWR black used. Perhaps on a 57xx if they make it back into the range - they seem to have been replaced by the 64xx completely.

Lined black, early crest LBSCR E4 with Billinton smokebox

J72 as Joem (though can't imagine that will be announced until the first batch have seen the light of day)

Another run of western region numbered Crimson/Cream Mk1s would be nice

 

My predictions from earlier in this thread are little affected by the Hornby announcement, though I was woefully wrong in my Hornby predictions! I wonder if the SR Q now falls into Bachmann's ball park? It was one of the more highly predicted locos, and the real thing has been quite a popular draw for other railways that have hired it for galas in the last couple of years.

 

Given the amount announced by Hornby that I would LIKE to buy, I don't really mind if there's no new tooliong from Bachmann for me (2019 is looking expensive!), particularly as mentioned time and time again, they have plenty of exciting products still in development. It would be sad to see more products cancelled.