Bachmann 2019 Speculation

[Legend]

I think with so much outstanding and limited progress any announcement will lack credibility unless it’s backed up by a timetable and prices . Have Kader given them production slots? Last year we heard they were deploying more development staff. I haven’t noticed a significant shortening of lead times as a result. If there is no price they can’t have costed it , therefore what work have they done on it ? Are they really serious or is it just a territory grab? The N J72 has proven to be non viable for Kader as an example.

 

It’s notable that Hornbys announcements contain prices and dates, although these can admittedly slide.......but not by 5 years (Class 158, class 90 must be heading that way )

 

I’m interested , because I’m always interested in Model Railways but they priced themselves out of my market some years ago . Going to have to be something very special like a Caley , NB loco or a class 303, none of which I think is likely . Someone measured up that Caley 0-4-4T though

 

An update on special commissions would be useful. Particularly interested in the 812 through Rails of course.

Edited January 8, 2019 by Legend

[it's-er]

I hope that on Monday we shall see photos of EP samples of the GWR 94xx and the MR 1P 0-4-4T. That would be one very good way of demonstrating that progress is being made in bringing product to market.

 

Apologies if anyone has already said this.

 

John Storey

 

(Edited to correct my mistake pointed out in the post immediately below! - thank you, Simon.)

Edited January 9, 2019 by it's-er

[Flying Pig]

I'm agog to see models of the MR 1F 4-4-0 in tender and tank versions, since I had never before heard of either. I do hope they don't delay production of the MR 1P 0-4-4T though.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

...One would think that Kader had shunted Bachmann UK down their list of priorities by quite a way. 

It was fairly explicit from some information that circulated perhaps two or three years back, that Kader were expecting Bachmann UK to deliver equivalent profitability to that achieved by comparable product in their other ranges. The first thing that will result from that is that prices will need to be comparable piece for piece between HO and OO. Bachmann UK haven't got to HO price level OO - yet - and Kader may well have a view on that.

 

I have 'large multinational' experience, and national divisions that didn't perform in HQ's opinion were put into what might be termed special measures. Now Kader may not work like that, but I wouldn't bank on it...

[Jack P]

.

 

I don't know that I expect much from Bachmann - they have so many outstanding items.

 

Maybe one "headline" item, and a few re-liveries.

 

.

 

 

I'm just hoping and praying there's a malachite H2, or even an H1 in there somewhere! - C'mon Bachmann, take my (and Wickham Green's) money!

Edited January 8, 2019 by Jack P

[JSpencer]

It was fairly explicit from some information that circulated perhaps two or three years back, that Kader were expecting Bachmann UK to deliver equivalent profitability to that achieved by comparable product in their other ranges. The first thing that will result from that is that prices will need to be comparable piece for piece between HO and OO. Bachmann UK haven't got to HO price level OO - yet - and Kader may well have a view on that.

 

I have 'large multinational' experience, and national divisions that didn't perform in HQ's opinion were put into what might be termed special measures. Now Kader may not work like that, but I wouldn't bank on it...

 

The argument against that is that they are facing very strong competition now. Their coach prices from 2018 are a third more than Hornby's 2019 prices. Hattons have done an all new 66 to better standards and cheaper than theirs and are willing to supply it to shops. Accurascales Deltic is going to knock spots off the Bachmann's one for not much more.... Heljans prices have increased a mere 15% for the whole of the past five years combined, they used to be an expensive niche market filler but now offer excellent value.

I love Bachmann's products but they can hardly come out with another 20% increase this year, say its normal, and wonder why they are loosing a big market share to almost all other makes whom are cheaper, quicker and at least as good in most cases.

They have a cracking headache to solve but granted service standards are still excellent.

[Jammy2305]

More of a wish than what I think will happen but a GER T26/LNER E4 would be a good shout.

 

It has a quirky Victorian feel, longevity of service, a range of liveries and a preserved example in the national collection.

[newbryford]

Left field modern wagon suggestion.

 

HRA (cut down HTA) hopper.

 

Then at least I know what to do with my HTAs that are set aside for conversion.

[mdvle]

Thoughts on some of the issues brought up.

 

J39 - was only going to be a new chassis, perhaps that was no longer viewed as a sufficient upgrade to interest the market.

 

94xx - given it went to tooling in September there could be EP images available, though they may not be released with the big announcement and may instead be kept for the next big show Bachmann attends.

 

1P - was still at CAD last I can find (the end of August update), but that update did mention it was going to require 2 different body shells.  Be interesting to see if it has progressed in Monday's update.

 

Prestwin - it may be something a competitor picks up, but part of the decision making might have been that the release of the PCA and Cemflo took a lot of that section of the market away for the next year or so, maybe even a competitor might want to wait a couple of years.

 

Production slots - while it doesn't seem like it when looking at the new products announced the last couple of years Bachmann has been getting production slots because they have been releasing product to retailers.  Maybe the bottleneck has been getting the tooling slots, in which case the number of items that finally got through/into the tooling shop last years provides some hope for the future.

[Andy Mac]

It was fairly explicit from some information that circulated perhaps two or three years back, that Kader were expecting Bachmann UK to deliver equivalent profitability to that achieved by comparable product in their other ranges. The first thing that will result from that is that prices will need to be comparable piece for piece between HO and OO. Bachmann UK haven't got to HO price level OO - yet - and Kader may well have a view on that.

 

I have 'large multinational' experience, and national divisions that didn't perform in HQ's opinion were put into what might be termed special measures. Now Kader may not work like that, but I wouldn't bank on it...

Thank goodness someone else remembers that announcement.... for some reason the most people seemed to equate Bachmanns substantial annual price increases with increased salaries for the factory workers...whilst i’m Sure that part of the yearly increase does go towards updating wages, the other part goes to increasing the profit margins...

[shunny]

While I get the price argument for the class 66 you have to remember Bachmann have to include both their own and retailer's profit into the price. Retail mark up on Bachmann products is higher than Hornby products so companies selling direct like Hattons and accurascale can keep prices lower as there is only own profits.

I know Hattons now offer some trade outlets but this so far is on products they have had all the initial sales and presumably covered all the development costs.

[Neil]

Ruston 48DS, a Terrier and a new budget range 66?

[JSpencer]

While I get the price argument for the class 66 you have to remember Bachmann have to include both their own and retailer's profit into the price. Retail mark up on Bachmann products is higher than Hornby products so companies selling direct like Hattons and accurascale can keep prices lower as there is only own profits.

I know Hattons now offer some trade outlets but this so far is on products they have had all the initial sales and presumably covered all the development costs.

 

But Hattons will supply these 66s to other retailers and Accurascales Deltic can be brought from Rails. Granted, the bulk will doubtless go through Direct sales.  

 

At the same time theorectically, big set ups like Bachmann and Hornby should have a far higer potential to drive costs down in design and production of these models. In Hornby's case they remain cheaper than the small players, in Bachmann's case they don't.  

Bachmann's operation in the UK grew rapidly between 2000 and 2010 thanks to being both the cheapest and highest quality. Then Kader figured out they were making a loss, now they seek to have a decent margin (how big? no one knows, maybe it is huge enough to try get back the losses made), making them somewhat expensive.

 

There are only 2 conclusions to this. Either Kader cuts some slack to allow Bachmann UK become competitive or Bachmann UK's operation will eventually be forced to shrink. All the comm in world saying we have no choice but to be expensive due to XYZ reasons means little if the competition is starting to outpace you in all areas. They might be able to put preasure in some areas but the energy for that is wasteful and can eventually backfire big time.  

[ThaneofFife]

I wonder if they will announce some new model cars for the Motorail flats?

 

1970s fodder such as Cortinas maxis marinas princess avenger escort etc......

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

The argument against that is that they are facing very strong competition now...

That's your argument against! A multinational isn't obligated to operate in all potential markets. If they find a market unremunerative compared to others and see no likely improvement, then withdrawal - partial or wholly - is possible. Why manufacture for the UK when the same investment in other nation's subjects yields significantly greater profit, and there is no prospect of an improvement in that position? There's no significant multinational customer considerations or the like, to make market presence valuable in securing sales opportunity elsewhere.

 

I write this as one with way more RTR product from Bachmann than all other RTR manufacturers summed together, at a ratio of about 3 :1. If asked 'what RTR OO manufacturer has done most for adult modellers in OO considered over all time to present?' I would say Bachmann without a second thought. That's simply for their 16T mineral wagon, an exemplar of their approach to providing good models of the really common items that are vital if a layout is to be realistic. I would be very sorry to see them exit the UK market, though I wouldn't drone on about it like the Auntie Vi fanboys.

[locoholic]

Whilst I'm not expecting anything much to be announced by Bachmann this year, there are two steam locos that I'm amazed no-one has done in RTR yet: the SECR D and the GER J69.

 

Both offer many livery options and have ornamental as well as operational value.

 

With the D class, it should surely be possible to use the chassis and tender for a D1 too, opening up more sales opportunities, as well as shifting more Birdcage coaches?

[locoholic]

That's your argument against! A multinational isn't obligated to operate in all potential markets. If they find a market unremunerative compared to others and see no likely improvement, then withdrawal - partial or wholly - is possible. Why manufacture for the UK when the same investment in other nation's subjects yields significantly greater profit, and there is no prospect of an improvement in that position? There's no significant multinational customer considerations or the like, to make market presence valuable in securing sales opportunity elsewhere.

 

I write this as one with way more RTR product from Bachmann than all other RTR manufacturers summed together, at a ratio of about 3 :1. If asked 'what RTR OO manufacturer has done most for adult modellers in OO considered over all time to present?' I would say Bachmann without a second thought. That's simply for their 16T mineral wagon, an exemplar of their approach to providing good models of the really common items that are vital if a layout is to be realistic. I would be very sorry to see them exit the UK market, though I wouldn't drone on about it like the Auntie Vi fanboys.

Up until a couple of years ago I would have agreed with you, but Hornby are now clearly ahead in the fields of steam locos and coaches. At present Bachmann have lost momentum, and show no sign of being in a position to regain it.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Probably dependent to a large extent where and when your modelling subject is based. For my ECML 56 - 62 scenario Bachmann leave Hornby trailing. Assuredly not so badly trailing as they were 10 years ago, having picked up more than somewhat in the matter of small black locos. (Hornby are not helped by their Brush 2 and Gresley gangwayed coaches being so inaccurate as to be unacceptable, shot themselves in the foot there, but even were these right they would still be trailing in my scenario's 'suitable product count'.

[JSpencer]

That's your argument against! A multinational isn't obligated to operate in all potential markets. If they find a market unremunerative compared to others and see no likely improvement, then withdrawal - partial or wholly - is possible. Why manufacture for the UK when the same investment in other nation's subjects yields significantly greater profit, and there is no prospect of an improvement in that position? There's no significant multinational customer considerations or the like, to make market presence valuable in securing sales opportunity elsewhere.

 

I write this as one with way more RTR product from Bachmann than all other RTR manufacturers summed together, at a ratio of about 3 :1. If asked 'what RTR OO manufacturer has done most for adult modellers in OO considered over all time to present?' I would say Bachmann without a second thought. That's simply for their 16T mineral wagon, an exemplar of their approach to providing good models of the really common items that are vital if a layout is to be realistic. I would be very sorry to see them exit the UK market, though I wouldn't drone on about it like the Auntie Vi fanboys.

 

I am not sure if we can call Kader a multinational per se. I doubt they are just finding themselves expensive in the UK market, they doubtless have the same issues elsewhere. If a multinational finds manufacturing expensive in one area, they move to a cheaper area. Maybe their new factory will do just that.

The competition is there and real. You either try to find a way to beat it or you retreat from the market (partly or wholey).

 

I have a lot of Bachmann product though still out numbered by Hornby, but other makes are getting an increasing share of my money.

[Jub45565]

Up until a couple of years ago I would have agreed with you, but Hornby are now clearly ahead in the fields of steam locos and coaches. At present Bachmann have lost momentum, and show no sign of being in a position to regain it.

 

I can't agree with this - Hornby coaches are still let down by the glazing when compared (on LNE, LMS and BR Mk1s at least, which I have looked closely at). The Thompsons are top notch.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

The sole qualification to be a 'multinational' business is to have business operations in more than one country. Kader are solidly in the multinational category, though nothing like the scale of the giant corporations that probably first come to mind when the term multinational is heard.

[Wickham Green]

I'm just hoping and praying there's a malachite H2, or even an H1 in there somewhere! - C'mon Bachmann, take my (and Wickham Green's) money!

...... but what's the chance they could produce them to coincide with the malachite 'birdcages' ?

['CHARD]

I wonder if they will announce some new model cars for the Motorail flats?

 

1970s fodder such as Cortinas maxis marinas princess avenger escort etc......

 

Aren't all of those except the Maxi and Avenger relatively freely available already in the Oxford range, though?

 

 

I write this as one with way more RTR product from Bachmann than all other RTR manufacturers summed together, at a ratio of about 3 :1. If asked 'what RTR OO manufacturer has done most for adult modellers in OO considered over all time to present?' I would say Bachmann without a second thought. That's simply for their 16T mineral wagon, an exemplar of their approach to providing good models of the really common items that are vital if a layout is to be realistic. I would be very sorry to see them exit the UK market, though I wouldn't drone on about it like the Auntie Vi fanboys.

 

I have few mantras, but 'you can't have too many 12T vent vans' is one, and only tokenistic numbers of Dapol's bananarama and gunpowder vans have diverted any of those funds away from Bachmann product over the past decade+.  Something similar can be said of 16T mineral wagons (as above), high steels, 45T tanks, and so on...  If it weren't for Bachmann's range, the RTR freight situation really would be lean pickings. 

[JeremyC]

Those praising Hornby and criticising Bachmann over their prices might like to reflect on which company has financial difficulties. It is pointless increasing market share if you make insufficient profit or a loss on each item sold. A prime example would be the original mini car on which British Leyland lost. money on every car sold.

[Chamby]

For me, the Bachmann situation is simple. I like their stuff, they just need to get it off the web pages and onto the retailers shelves!