Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[LBRJ]

6 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

Mortality in Italy is said to be double for men than for women.

 

is this that they smoked more?

is it that they were exposed to workplace pollution?

is it that men are less about personal hygiene?

is it just a quirk of statistics?

 

Troubling none the less.

 

It is probably a mixture of all of the above.

Pollution + Respiratory system affecting viruses is a mix most certainly not made in heaven.

 

Coming from Sheffield (both past and even to some degree present*) gives one a first hand look at what not very nice air does to the general health.

 

*It is more topography related now than industrial but the net effect is not dissimilar if much smaller in scale obviously.

Edited March 22, 2020 by LBRJ

[Nearholmer]

1 minute ago, Gwiwer said:

None of that explains the rampant infection and high mortality in northern Italy at which point this theory ceases to hold much water.  

 

I'm not totally sure which theory you mean here, the 'pollution' theory, or the 'density' theory (certainty), but it might be relevant to mention that northern Italy has very poor air quality due to pollution, on several parameters - there are lots of maps and satellite images on-line showing it in different ways. A huge area in Northern Italy that might be roughly the size of the whole of SE England has air quality as poor as Central London.

[robert17649]

The beeb have just informed me that coronavirus is a virus that causes a viral illness.

 

I think that this sort of patronising approach, also exercised by HMG can do little to persuade all but the most accommodating that this is to be taken seriously.

It is..... ing serious.

[Nearholmer]

10 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

Troubling none the less.

 

Less so to women, presumably.

[midlands]

I just wish the guvmint would quit dithering and get on with the enforced isolation, bring in the troopers...It is obvious to me that a large proportion of the population have not a clue how to conduct them selves. Might as well bite the bullet and get it over with....a few troops at the supermarkets might also go a long way to slow down the chavs attempts to override the rules also.

 

Stay happy and healthy all

 

Roger

[APOLLO]

Station one of these guys at every supermarket checkout.

 

 

More than two bog rolls and the Kukri is out !!

 

Brit15

[midlands]

Didn't the Gurka's have a thing that once drawn their kukri must draw blood before it can be returned to it's scabbard  ? 

[Liam]

5 minutes ago, midlands said:

Didn't the Gurka's have a thing that once drawn their kukri must draw blood before it can be returned to it's scabbard  ? 

That’s what I’ve heard from a Lt Col who went through Sandhurst and then fought with the Gurkhas for a while. 

[Pacific231G]

36 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

Mortality in Italy is said to be double for men than for women.

 

is this that they smoked more?

is it that they were exposed to workplace pollution?

is it that men are less about personal hygiene?

is it just a quirk of statistics?

 

Troubling none the less.

There were similar statistics from China about a month ago but there haven't, according to several sources including the Lancet*, been specific studiies on why this should be. Gender differences in the immune system and the larger proportion of men than women who smoke in both China and Italy  have been the main suggested causes. It doesn't appear to be a quirk in the statistics.

 

*https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30526-2/fulltext#back-bib4

[Nearholmer]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-51999437/stay-at-home-doctors-and-nurses-appeal-to-uk

 

Anyone know how to make this go viral, if you'll pardon the use of that word?

[Dunsignalling]

6 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

I'm not totally sure which theory you mean here, the 'pollution' theory, or the 'density' theory (certainty), but it might be relevant to mention that northern Italy has very poor air quality due to pollution, on several parameters - there are lots of maps and satellite images on-line showing it in different ways. A huge area in Northern Italy that might be roughly the size of the whole of SE England has air quality as poor as Central London.

Also, ISTR reading (before any of this kicked off) that Italy has a higher proportion of the population who still smoke than most other EU countries.

 

John

[Liam]

8 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-51999437/stay-at-home-doctors-and-nurses-appeal-to-uk

 

Anyone know how to make this go viral, if you'll pardon the use of that word?

Probably by sharing it on social media if you have Facebook or Twitter etc. 

[Nearholmer]

Indeed.

 

I asked, because I don’t, and was hoping others do.

[StevieD71]

It's been doing the rounds and has popped on my Facebook feed continuously since last night, so I'd say it's pretty certain that it is going viral.

[Ron Ron Ron]

The news papers and news websites are speculating that a lock down is going to be declared within 24 hours.

 

The PM speaking at his press conference yesterday afternoon, appeared to be very reluctant to be going this far, at this point in time.

Everything he said about encouraging people to get out and take some exercise etc, while being cautious about keeping their distance from others, all sounded very sensible and logical, but his responses to questions and his tone suggested to me that he’ll be very reluctant to make the call for a lock down until the last minute.

There are those who think this will be too late.

 

Note: ABC News Are reporting that 40% of those being hospitalised for Coronavirus in the USA are under the age of 54.

18% are between 45 and 54

20% are between 20 and 44 years old

2% are under 18 years old

 

 

.

[chris p bacon]

8 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Note: ABC News Are reporting that 40% of those being hospitalised for Coronavirus in the USA are under the age of 54.

18% are between 45 and 54

20% are between 20 and 44 years old

2% are under 18 years old

 

Without meaning to make a sweeping generalisation, when I've been to the USA a large proportion of people my age (57) and younger seem to have a lot of health issues associated with obesity, one of which is breathing difficulties.  

Could this explain it?

[boxbrownie]

11 hours ago, midlands said:

Didn't the Gurka's have a thing that once drawn their kukri must draw blood before it can be returned to it's scabbard  ? 

Just the same as the Police baton then? 

[Nearholmer]

5 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

Without meaning to make a sweeping generalisation, when I've been to the USA a large proportion of people my age (57) and younger seem to have a lot of health issues associated with obesity, one of which is breathing difficulties.  

Could this explain it?

The big penny that hasn’t dropped is that there are a lot more ‘young’ people than ‘old’ people (c18% of the population is >64yo), so even though ‘young’ people have a lower mortality rate, lots more of them will cop the disease, and c5% of those who do will need hospital treatment.*

 

If the hospitals are functioning properly, the ‘young’ who are hospitalised will nearly all come home recovered; if the hospitals are overwhelmed, a lot more ‘young’ people will not come home.

 

The maths dictate - have a look at the posting that I made yesterday morning with lots of numbers in it. I edited it last night.
 

*Being ‘young’ means that you are less likely to die from it; it doesn’t mean you can’t catch it.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Metr0Land]

FWIW France 24 News were reporting this morning that French medical staff are crying out for protective clothing.  It didn't get the prominence that we've been seeing in the UK but clearly logistics proving problematical there too. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Metr0Land

[jjb1970]

Where is the 20% of young people being hospitalized figure taken from? 

 

Apologies for copying and pasting from the Imperial College paper, but it is in the public domain and can be accessed fully at:

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

Looking at this it is only at age 60+ that expected hospitalization gets near 20%. However it should be noted these figures come from a model and are therefore very much dependent upon the assumptions used and input data.

 

[Nearholmer]

3 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

Where is the 20% of young people being hospitalized figure taken from? 

Rough approximation based on overall hospitalisation rate from memory (while trying to run ‘home school’!), and looks as if it too high, in that rates don’t get to that until over 70; I have revised to 5%.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Nearholmer

[MJI]

We are in social isolation, working from home 4 days a week, tomorrow is work day.

 

I will wipe down handles and the like as I go in, take food and drink. Wipe PC down if desk has been cleaned.

 

Left a load of barcoding kit lying around, that better not be moved!

 

I am also pleased that high risk people are either full WFH or after me in week, lowest risk person is Monday.

[raymw]

I was sent this. It seems a succinct explanation, but I've not verified the source, or if it is reliable. Always a certain apportion of blame.
................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
 

An expert in viruses explains the situation in layman's language. Well worth reading!

 

 

From immunology department Johns Hopkins 

 

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

 

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

 

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

 

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that's what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.

 

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

 

Fast forward. 

 

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long..but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

 

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

 

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

 

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

 

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

 

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

 

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

#flattenthecurve.  Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.

[Baby Deltic]

14 hours ago, APOLLO said:

Station one of these guys at every supermarket checkout.

 

 

More than two bog rolls and the Kukri is out !!

 

Brit15

I thought big rolls had serrations to tear them off?

[Baby Deltic]

Apparently untreated high blood pressure was a major factor in a lot of the fatalities.