Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[friscopete]

Just as an aside to the pasta famine .I worked in GT Yarmouth once .There was a huge warehouse full of bulk dried pasta .A sort of pasta mountain .I think its still there and I dont doubt they will be happy to flog it off  at inflated prices .i did my panic buying weeks ago .

[Ravenser]

1 minute ago, adb968008 said:

I had suspected Sars in 2003, HK. I dont wish it to anyone, though ultimately I survived here to be labelled alarmist.

My father caught bird flu in 2017, spent 6 weeks in ICU on a ventilator before succumbing... a few weeks earlier we were planning rail trips to Germany And running down Euston station.

 

I saw first hand what it took for HK to beat this, and Ive heard similar stories once more today... which is why HK used its experience to kill this virus so well.
Further I see the stats stabilising in Korea, through much the same approach and China is in a good position.

 

The UK has not had anything like this since the 1950’s. The political language here and Europe doesnt match (indeed all europe is disjointed in its approach - I read today Holland just sent 700 school kids to Italy )...

 

it just doesnt tally to what Ive seen myself implemented in Asia in 2003... so ive little faith here.

 

No one can predict 100% numbers, but numbers are just that. If your measure on the virus is based on numbers, I’m afraid its misplaced.

 

if though, just one person is sufficiently concerned, to react to feeling unwell, and it saves their lives, or spreading further.. then I make no apology. Many here on this forum fit the vulnerable at risks groups, and much as I might disagree or be put back in my place by them.. I would find it a much lonelier forum without them and they would be dearly missed by me.

 

forgive me If i translate comments of Alarmist in to Naivety.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This , on all the evidence so far , is about one-tenth as lethal as SARS

 

It could in theory get as bad as the Spanish Flu of 1918, though that epidemic lasted many months, and from what I can make out the measures taken against Spanish Flu in terms of restrictions were no greater than many European countries have already taken, while available health care in 1918 was much less

 

But there is no folk memory of the flu pandemics of the 1950s and 60s , or of the cholera epidemic of 1832 , or the typhoid epidemic of 1861, or the flu pandemics of 1889-90 or 1802-3. They don't even rate a  footnote in history books

 

Everyone is reacting as if this is the bubonic plague circa 1665 or a zombie apocalypse movie.

I mean that - though we haven't seen a proposal that those self-isolating should paint a red cross on the front door along with the words "Lord have mercy on us", the papers last weekend were suggesting 500,000 may die and that the Government was planning to dig plague pits to bury them... And we are certainly seeing a flood of articles about 1347-9 and 1665. The panic buying and "prepping" globally is straight out of the plague/zombie movie playbook. The Chief Medical Officer has had to say on national television that people in their 80s should not expect to die from this...

 

All this when the death toll across Europe is under 1000. In September 1665 London , a city of under half a million, was losing nearly 7000 dead a week. If this is the reaction when we have under 200 cases in total, where would it go if we had 10,000 cases???

 

People are talking portentously about how it may change life for ever (It won't. 1665 and 1918 changed nothing)

 

As jjb pointed out earlier , ordinary flu kills thousands each winter, and nobody notices. Road deaths are also a couple of hundred a month - nobody notices...

[Dava]

As hand sanitizer is not easily available, I carry a small bottle of surgical spirit [Boots] and tube of hand cream. Mix a small amount in Palm of hand and rub over hands. Active ingredient is the same as sanitizer. Hand cream compensates for drying effect of alcohol.

 

Dava

[jonny777]

8 hours ago, Dava said:

As hand sanitizer is not easily available, I carry a small bottle of surgical spirit [Boots] and tube of hand cream. Mix a small amount in Palm of hand and rub over hands. Active ingredient is the same as sanitizer. Hand cream compensates for drying effect of alcohol.

 

Dava

 

It occurred to me that in these days of retail computerisation, the individual bulk (i.e. panic buying) purchases of hand sanitiser and toilet rolls can easily be flagged up on a supermarket central computer. Add in the credit/debit card details of the purchaser and it would be easy to create a blacklist of all those selfish shoppers. They could subsequently be omitted from any discount or voucher offers that the stores wish to promote, as a 'punishment'. 

 

I see poor Italy has confirmed another 778 new cases with the virus in the last 24 hours.

 

[PenrithBeacon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-reasons-to-be-reassured

[Torper]

On 01/03/2020 at 19:02, adb968008 said:

i’m in London tomorrow, I will be wearing a mask (dont care what you say)

 

But all the expert evidence appears to be that a mask is ineffective in preventing its wearer from catching coronavirus (loads of links, just google "is a mask effective against coronavirus").  My own view is that if lots of people start wearing masks all it will do is contribute to panic, not to prevention of the disease.

 

DT

[EddieB]

A good illustration of the spread and rate of transmission is presented in a case study of “clusters”, including the British family staying in a ski chalet who included a member recently returned from Singapore:

 

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20212

 

[Chamby]

23 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

 

i’ll keep wearing a mask.

 

 

Thats great if you’ve already got one.  No chance of getting one now, if you haven’t already.  It’s the same with alcohol based hand sanitiser... our local supermarkets have been told they won’t be getting any until the end of the month at least.

 

That’s why people are anxious, we’re being told what to do to protect ourselves, but are unable to do it!

[Torper]

23 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

on a train with some bloke coughing his guts up... does it make you feel better or not ?

 

I've been assuming - perhaps wrongly - that you've been wearing an ordinary surgical type mask  That might make you feel better in the short term, but it's not going to prevent you getting coronavirus.  If on the other hand you have an N95 respirator that might well indeed provide some protection (https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html).  It's astonishing how many of these are now "unavailable" on Amazon.

 

DT

 

 

[jjb1970]

I suggested to a company demonstrating a saturation diving system that they could make more money selling it as an anti coronavirus suit this week.

[runs as required]

I thought it interesting on this morning's 'Today' programme to hear from some top WHO medico and then from a Brit EFL teacher married to a Chinese who stayed put in Wuhan.

They were both relaying the same message that it was not solely due to the Authoritarian regime but also the strong Confucian sense of Community that comes from the 5 thousand year old Chinese Yin and Yang balancing act with Daoism.

Mr Hill (the Brit) emphasised how it had been the strong Community spirit within his 15 building (no doubt all multi-storey) housing complex that had got them through their isolation.

 

It did put me in mind of Eyam Derbyshire during the Plague of 1665

dh

 

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Chamby said:

 

Thats great if you’ve already got one.  No chance of getting one now, if you haven’t already.  It’s the same with alcohol based hand sanitiser... our local supermarkets have been told they won’t be getting any until the end of the month at least.

 

That’s why people are anxious, we’re being told what to do to protect ourselves, but are unable to do it!

As soon as this started in January, I bought masks.

My wife thought I was mad, but ive been here, seen it before.

 

We bought gel a few weeks ago, and some basic medicals to last for a few days if we do get sick. (Nurofen etc) for the fever, tissues, lemsip and other usuals for a throat infection plus some other things recommended by the Wife's parents (who are both Doctors with 30+ years experience).

 

Last week we did the toilet roll shopping.

 

ive Turned it into a game / a competition with our child to try not to touch things you don't own, with your hands.. its fun not scary.

Weve started using gel etc.. its hard to get yourself into a new routine.. my weakness is touching my hair... but prepping now gives time to adjust if / when we reach that critical point.

 

I really don't like being ahead of the trend, but I have reacted to this all the way so far as Ive seen it first hand before, it is not always “just flu”.
 

Whilst theres no cure, and most will be mild, its still a lottery and it doesn't harm yourself to not prepare, have basics and change your lifestyle to protect yourself...

 

in 2003 I was blind sided, no supplies, not even aspirin..

if this becomes a big event, no one will protect you, not the NHS, not Boris, people are going to have to self manage for the most part, even some quite serious cases where you wake up, find you are bed ridden not wanting to drink, unable to go to the bathroom, delirious seeing images coming out of the walls, unable to lift your hands or even move a pillow, looking at a ceiling not caring, not sure if your asleep or awake, feeling dehydrated but not caring, peeing little amounts that are black, shivering one minute sweating profusely the next... i mean soaking wet pillows, that you just lie in because you cant be bothered. You can feel your heart beating like its going to come out of your chest, even your neck is beating. Later your not sure if your breathing at all. Not caring if a tv is on or not, only realising someone is in the room until theyve gone..Tissues.. i didn't need then a my nose was fine, but my throat was cardboard, occasionally coughed blood.  

I believe Chicken broth saved me.. warm or cold water, Ice all hurt my throat, so did coke. Chicken broth was very soothing, I think the fat lined my throat and gave me that inital energy to start moving again... thats my theory anyway. I went to the Dr’s but they found nothing, I went down as suspected SARS.
 

I recall an insane back ache and after getting back on my feet I felt great, though my chest hurt, initially quite hard, if I walked too far, which steadily improved over days, I had developed an insane appetite and oddly started liking olives for the first time, a legacy I enjoy today.

 

I was still in my Big hard untouchable 20’s at the time.

 

I was later told I was panting like a steam train... they had no idea the irony of my hobby interests. I thought I couldn't breathe at all... that was scary, but I strangely didn't care either.

 

Even my criteria above did not qualify to be able to go to the overcrowded hospital and needed to look after myself as I was told i’d probably recover.. 3 days later I did, but its given me respect for ”a cold” and to maintain some cleanliness at times like this.

 

if its unavoidable, so be it, i’d rather be more comfortable than I was last time. But if theres chance to avoid it for a few seconds effort and few quid expended.. i’ll take it. Selfishly I am hoping my past exposure might help my immunity this time.. ive certainy never had any cold like that since.. 

 

My fear is my wife and I being sick at the same time.. we have only 1 elderly family member in the UK, 250 miles away, who is really in the “at risk” group for this virus, to look after our daughter.. in a repeat of the event I went through above happening to both of us, i’ve not yet figured out what to do (suggestions please). But if the UK does start going “viral”, we may leave the country to the wifes parents ahead of this as theres a much bigger family on their side. Their opinion is if it takes off in the UK, the UK will be isolated from the world and they aren't sure they would be able come to help, despite being Doctors as travel restrictions generally affect all.

 

btw, wife’s parents advice to managing this... good sleep.. catching this when already fatigued really doesnt help.. thats their theory on why they think that 30 year old Dr died in Wuhan.

 

But what do I know.. i’m alarmist, it wont happen to me, it only affects old people, its just a cold, UK is prepared, were British,  it wont happen to me, it wont spread..

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by adb968008

[jjb1970]

1 hour ago, Torper said:

 

But all the expert evidence appears to be that a mask is ineffective in preventing its wearer from catching coronavirus (loads of links, just google "is a mask effective against coronavirus").  My own view is that if lots of people start wearing masks all it will do is contribute to panic, not to prevention of the disease.

 

DT

 

Unfortunately the panic is already there for some, aided by media headlines which are pretty irresponsible IMO

[jjb1970]

On the bright side, the word "pratique " has been rediscovered by people other than plague anoraks, it's always good to increase ones vocabulary.

Edited March 7, 2020 by jjb1970

[BoD]

Doomed, we're all doomed.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_Frazer

[Liam]

Just as an aside, what’s everyone been singing for 20 seconds while they wash their hands? 
 

Most of the time for me it’s the chorus of Take on Me by a-ha. 
 

But sometimes I use 500 Miles, with the extended ‘da da da da’ after the chorus. 
 

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by SVRlad

[Torper]

Tom Lehrer.....  (the circumstances aren't the same, but the idea sort of is!)

 

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by Torper

[sharris]

 

[Torper]

Perhaps more appropriate from Tom Lehrer...

 

 

[jonny777]

But surely, if you had the virus, singing while you washed you hands would simply risk transmitting it out of your mouth back onto the surfaces you were trying to clean?

 

Or have I missed something here?

[87023Velocity]

Been singing the chorus to this in my mind whilst hand washing, seems appropriate......

 

Simon

[Limpley Stoker]

Worth a read folks

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30379-2

[Liam]

16 minutes ago, jonny777 said:

But surely, if you had the virus, singing while you washed you hands would simply risk transmitting it out of your mouth back onto the surfaces you were trying to clean?

 

Or have I missed something here?

 

If you had the virus then it probably wouldn’t make much difference if it transmitted on to the surfaces of your hands because you have it anyway. And if they did then hot water and soap would wash them away. But generally those of us who are singing while hand washing are trying to prevent the virus reaching us, rather than trying to contain the virus to ourselves from other people. 

[Andy Hayter]

13 hours ago, Dava said:

As hand sanitizer is not easily available, I carry a small bottle of surgical spirit [Boots] and tube of hand cream. Mix a small amount in Palm of hand and rub over hands. Active ingredient is the same as sanitizer. Hand cream compensates for drying effect of alcohol.

 

Dava

 

While I don't criticise the use of either component, the way you are using them is less than ideal.  Alcohols only kill the virus effectively if they are 60% or stronger.  Mixing in the palm of your hand in an ad hoc way probably means that some if not all of the alcohol is going to be below the 60% level and so the disinfecting properties will be compromised.

 

Better to apply the alcohol neat, rub that in and then apply the hand cream afterwards.

[spikey]

For what it's worth ...

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/environmental-services/best-approach-disinfecting-surfaces-amid-novel-coronavirus-outbreak