HS2

[The Stationmaster]

And amongsr all of this - largely thanks to idiot politicians ab bd very numbskull commentators - the real purpose of HS2 has become almost completely lost from the debate (when there is a debate).

 

And our love of and need for the motor car is probably helping to shape widerv opinion on that as well in a simplistic anti-rail 'why do we need it?' manner.  As 'Woodenhead' has said we have become a car based society and we have built most housing developments of the past four or more decades. based wholly on that premise.  I live in a smallish town with a population just under 12,000 and i live close enough to the centre, just over half a mile, to walk there.  But I can't carry several days worth of shopping back up the hill; I can't go to the edge of town Tesco without the car to carry my shopping home unless I book a taxi to replace it.  And none of this is unusual because many hundreds of thousands of people in umpteen towns face exactly the same situation.

 

Car use, with its perceived as low marginal cost, makes billions spent on a railway look ridiculous to, probably, the overwhelming majority of people and even politicos are bright enough, or cunning enough, to recognise that.  Hence cutting back HS2 to a a link between former carriage sidings in West London to an off centre part of Birmingham is seen as 'a sensible saving; by many voters even though theh actual cost is in interest payments with teh capital to be slowly repaid over many years.

[jamie92208]

Please can we keep the politics, EV's etc off this thread. There is so e fabulous engi peering goi g on can we stick to that p, ease. 

 

Jamie

[ruggedpeak]

HS2 is facing the same basic problem as everyone and everything, interest rates have gone up dramatically in a matter of months. The long term borrowing costs are many times what they were before and this has blown a huge hole in the Government's finances (and people's mortgages). The irony is that if everyone involved had not been messing around for years and just got on with it, by now it would probably be too far gone to stop or reduce.

[Michael Hodgson]

On 15/09/2023 at 18:49, corneliuslundie said:

I hope any computer guided cars are more reliable than the computer controlled delivery pods in Milton Keynes. I gather that they quite often have to be rescued from hedges etc when they have taken a wrong turn.

 

I'm told that those found in hedges in MK have largely just been intercepted and turned upside down by the local yobbos.  The same type doesn't seem to suffer a similar fate in Cambourne. 

 

I understand they are fitted with some sort of CCTV, so I assume it should be possible to identify and track down those repsonsible for malicious interference, although retailers are already complaining that Mr Plod isn't doing anything about shoplifters so the police probably don;t have the resources to investigate common assault against robots.

[Michael Hodgson]

37 minutes ago, jamie92208 said:

Please can we keep the politics, EV's etc off this thread. There is so e fabulous engi peering goi g on can we stick to that p, ease. 

 

Jamie

 But this fabulous engineering is not going on.  It's stopping in Birmingham.

[Michael Hodgson]

35 minutes ago, ruggedpeak said:

HS2 is facing the same basic problem as everyone and everything, interest rates have gone up dramatically in a matter of months. The long term borrowing costs are many times what they were before and this has blown a huge hole in the Government's finances (and people's mortgages). The irony is that if everyone involved had not been messing around for years and just got on with it, by now it would probably be too far gone to stop or reduce.

The solution to mass unemployment and general economic mess of the Depression years before WW2 was to throw resources at improving infrastructure - the "New Works" programme here and Roosevelt's New Deal. 

 

Our economy had effectively collapsed during WW2, we were skint and we had to rebuild on a colossal scale.  We did that anyway and the then prime minister could stand on a platform of "You've never had it so good". 

 

Once again we find ourselves needing massive improvements to our transport system, energy technology, water supply/drainage, flood defences, social housing etc.  Or we could just fill in the pot holes in the road and wait for this winter's frost to create a load more that we can fill in next year.

[ruggedpeak]

3 minutes ago, Michael Hodgson said:

The solution to mass unemployment and general economic mess of the Depression years before WW2 was to throw resources at improving infrastructure - the "New Works" programme here and Roosevelt's New Deal. 

 

Our economy had effectively collapsed during WW2, we were skint and we had to rebuild on a colossal scale.  We did that anyway and the then prime minister could stand on a platform of "You've never had it so good". 

 

Once again we find ourselves needing massive improvements to our transport system, energy technology, water supply/drainage, flood defences, social housing etc.  Or we could just fill in the pot holes in the road and wait for this winter's frost to create a load more that we can fill in next year.

Back in those days the people in charge had not printed vast, unimagineable sums of money to prop up failing banks (letting banks fail rather than printing money is why there was the Depression in the first place). So they had the economic capacity to fund these things (even if my American historian friends were less than impressed with the realities of the New Deal etc). Today's western governments have printed/borrowed so much money they can't do it any more, and even if they could print, they cannot afford the interest payments due on the loans due to where interest rates are. Add in all the challenges over productivty, growth, population, the growing non-working population etc and you can't borrow with any reasonable expectation of rapid economic growth to pay for the loans in the future (at least that is how the money markets see it, and they put the price on the Government's loan interest...)

 

Yes, there is loads of work needing doing but that is not where the money is going. The Government is, for example, tied into vast quantities of Net Zero spend by legislation (interesting my earlier post was deleted but the factually inaccurate one has been left...) so other things like HS2 may have to go.

 

In that wider context and for various reasons HS2 simply doesn't stack up - that is not about the railway issues, but about the wider economic and political setting. And HS2 is and is likely to become more political over time, whether people like it or not. And whether we actually need all of that expensive engineering at all is open to debate, like the cutting that became a tunnel for reasons that are not entirely clear. More money, great for contractors and consultants, not so great for those who pay the bill (us). Could be an entire series of "Abandoned Engineering" on HS2!!!!

[david.hill64]

1 minute ago, ruggedpeak said:

 And whether we actually need all of that expensive engineering at all is open to debate, like the cutting that became a tunnel for reasons that are not entirely clear. More money, great for contractors and consultants, not so great for those who pay the bill (us). Could be an entire series of "Abandoned Engineering" on HS2!!!!

The project is littered with scope changes, mostly for political reasons. Tunnelling under the Chilterns is an obvious one, as is the indecision about Euston. Contractors make their money on changes. As the boss of Met-Cam said: changes turn a net loss into a gross profit.

 

George Osbourne asks the question 'why does it cost so much more to build a railway here than in continental Europe?' It's a valid point but I doubt whether the construction costs are very much different. It is the plague of parasites that feed off every major investment opportunity here.

[John Tomlinson]

On 15/09/2023 at 22:25, phil-b259 said:

 

Indeed - and thats why its imperative that the link to the WCML near Lichfield and bit into Euston are completed - even if they axe everything else to do it!

 

Why?

 

Because that link at Lichfield and the completion of Euston will at least allow Manchester / Liverpool / Preston / Anglo Scottish services to use the initial phase and with it a slight decrease in journey times as well as reducing congestion on the WCML south of Rugby.

 

I'm no fan of this project, indeed wish it had never started, but this is absolutely spot on.

 

Much of the groundwork on Phase 1 must now have been completed or is well underway. Yes, its a sunk cost, but at least let's have something to show for this shambles, not to mention all the eco-carnage that has already been done.

 

Be good if this could be done with a bit more transparency about costs and better governance. Actually I think we can take this as a given, otherwise it's all for the chop.

 

John.

[david.hill64]

7 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

 

....... not to mention all the eco-carnage that has already been done.

 

But temporary: there will be a net gain in woodland once finished. I know that 300 year old woodland will take a few years to re-establish, but this project has been very mindful - perhaps too minful? - of ecological consequences.

 

What would you have done instead? Stop people travelling? We have an aging and growing population. Both older and younger people are less inclined to drive than previous generations. Do you stop them travelling, or do you provide them with a modern efficient transport system?

[Ron Ron Ron]

If you were to restrict your input of news and current affairs to the British main stream media, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the economic problems were limited just to the UK.

They are not.

Similar problems are in much of Europe and N America.

 

In Europe, by far the richest and most prosperous nation, with its large industrial base, is Germany.

They are in recession and have a cost of living crisis just as bad as ours, with their industrial might hanging by a thread in many sectors.

For example, the German construction industry is crying out for help as work has been drying up since 2020. Large numbers of construction firms have closed their doors, or gone bankrupt.

Their mighty car industry is struggling, at a time when they’re having to invest billions, in order to try and catch up in the electric car revolution.

Fortunately for Germany, they have the advantage of years of surplus to fall back on (not much help to the average working person though), but they also hold the massive debt resulting from the over printing of trillions of Euros over the last 15 years, in order to keep the Eurozone economies afloat.

The time for printing more money has long since passed.

 

In the UK, as a nation, we have continued to spend well beyond our means since Gordon Brown opened the purse strings in the mid 00’s.

Sad as it is, there may no longer be enough slack left to borrow and propel much needed economic investment in infrastructure and other key areas.

The global economy is swirling around the fringes of a whirlpool, with governments and central banks trying to keep paddling, to prevent being sucked in.

 

 

p.s. I’m told that rope is going very cheap on eBay at the moment.

 

 

.

[ruggedpeak]

17 minutes ago, david.hill64 said:

 

 

George Osbourne asks the question 'why does it cost so much more to build a railway here than in continental Europe?' It's a valid point but I doubt whether the construction costs are very much different. It is the plague of parasites that feed off every major investment opportunity here.

"The first phase of HS2 cost £396 million per mile, compared with a similar rail link between Paris and Strasbourg that cost £31 million per mile."

 

https://theweek.com/news/uk-news/962244/is-britains-infrastructure-failing

 

I have no idea if this new 'pressure group' "Britain Remade" who did this report are using accurate figures as I can't find the actual report, but it is a huge difference. Lots more scary looking examples.

 

[melmerby]

3 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

off centre part of Birmingham

It's hardly off centre, it's on the inner ring road (Moor Street at this point) which encircles the main heart of the city, it's next door to Moor Street Station, and that is on the other side of the road to the Bull Ring centre.

Corporation Street is a short walk away.

[Michael Hodgson]

7 minutes ago, david.hill64 said:

 

What would you have done instead? Stop people travelling?

That is what we're doing. 

 

ULEZ zones, congestion charging, bus lanes, residents only parking, different rules in different places, reduce Welsh speed limits to 20 mph (also in a lot of places in the rest of UK), pedestrian only in many town centre streets.  Brexit has added to the bureaucracy of going overseas.  And only a couple of years ago, complete lockdown.

[ruggedpeak]

3 minutes ago, david.hill64 said:

But temporary: there will be a net gain in woodland once finished. I know that 300 year old woodland will take a few years to re-establish, but this project has been very mindful - perhaps too minful? - of ecological consequences.

 

What would you have done instead? Stop people travelling? We have an aging and growing population. Both older and younger people are less inclined to drive than previous generations. Do you stop them travelling, or do you provide them with a modern efficient transport system?

It will take around 300 years to replicate the ecology of a 300 year old woodland.

 

https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/news/new-report-hs2-got-it-wrong

 

[corneliuslundie]

But most of the "ancient" woodland, while classified in a certain way, did not contain 300 year old trees. The basis for the definition goes back to map making a number of decades ago. If it was on the map then it is treated as if it is ancient. And a wood full of 300 year old trees is not in a good state anyway, one needs a range of ages with renewal constantly under way - not like the Forestry Commission does, clear the site and start again.

There are not actually that many tree species which normally live for 300 years.

But back to HS2, how is the government going to transport people and goods by rail if it doesn't happen? The West Coast Main Line is full.

That said, despite what was said above, we are going to have to accept major changes to our lifestyles if the world is to survive, and travel is one of them. So we need more environmentally friendly modes of travel (ie rail) but also more environmentally friendly life styles.  

Jonathan

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, ruggedpeak said:

"The first phase of HS2 cost £396 million per mile, compared with a similar rail link between Paris and Strasbourg that cost £31 million per mile."

 

 

 

This doesn’t surprise me - fist thing is that stuff like land costs are lower in France plus the state is far less likely to pander to NIMBYs mean less tunnelling etc.

 

Then there is the global economic situation president at the time the project was started  with inflation not to mention interest rates much lower.

 

Plus France had been more or less continually building LGV lines since the early 1980s so the design, engineering and construction teams would have been very familiar with the work they were doing with less mistakes and inefficiencies happening.

[martin_wynne]

35 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

The West Coast Main Line is full.

 

How old was the woodland the West Coast Main Line was built through?

 

[phil-b259]

3 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

How old was the woodland the West Coast Main Line was built through?

 

 

Probably just as old

 

You forget that the Victorians had no qualms in clearing away huge swathes of woodland and committed far grater ecological crimes that HS2 is doing. Later still the builders of the UKs initial motorway network generally had a similar 'couldn't care less' attitude when planning the network

 

Indeed the ecological damage done to the countryside the construction of the WCML created would have meant that the things simply would not have been permitted to be built in the first place had we applied todays standards to it.

[billbedford]

Sometimes I'm supprised we were permitted to come down from the trees. 

[ruggedpeak]

46 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

But most of the "ancient" woodland, while classified in a certain way, did not contain 300 year old trees. The basis for the definition goes back to map making a number of decades ago. If it was on the map then it is treated as if it is ancient. And a wood full of 300 year old trees is not in a good state anyway, one needs a range of ages with renewal constantly under way - not like the Forestry Commission does, clear the site and start again.

There are not actually that many tree species which normally live for 300 years.

But back to HS2, how is the government going to transport people and goods by rail if it doesn't happen? The West Coast Main Line is full.

That said, despite what was said above, we are going to have to accept major changes to our lifestyles if the world is to survive, and travel is one of them. So we need more environmentally friendly modes of travel (ie rail) but also more environmentally friendly life styles.  

Jonathan

Spectacularly missing the ecological point entirely about 300 year old woodland (not trees....). And directly relevant to HS2 as the project has made a whole series of dubious claims about its ecological impact, which the linked report debunks.

 

May be worth reading a few of Oliver Rackham's works to better under British woodland and ecology and the associated history.

[APOLLO]

Writing this from Kings Lynn having to urgently visit my sister. Last march I traveled here from Wigan by train, a long but interesting journey via Manchester, changing to the Liverpool - Norwich service to Ely then short hop up to Kings Lynn, £90 Stockport to KL with railcard (open return). Today was by car with my wife, 168 miles at 45mpg, approx £55 return for us both with quite a bit of luggage etc - a no brainer.

 

The run today was quick, M6 / M56 / A555 to the A6 at Hazel Grove, over Peak Forest to Chesterfield, where the roads suddenly got seriously pot holed through Mansfield , Newark and the A17 to KL. Really rough roads in and around Mansfield area. What's going on there ?

 

Talk of banning petrol / diesel cars, etc is just one problem. Our roads are shyte and getting worse, public transport a joke, I more than likely could not have done this journey by train today. Whats this got to do with HS2 (which I FULLY support) you may ask ? - Well, it's to do with money. Our countries infrastructure in most areas seems to be made of RAAC and is falling apart. I seldom drive out of Lancashire / Cheshire, but what I have seen today worries me. Where is all my (and your) tax money going ?

 

And it is not just public spending. Our privately owned "service" culture is getting awful. I stopped at a large service station at Newark for a call of nature, no toilets (they cost money) plenty of Costa Coffee etc "to go" but nowhere to actually go !!!!.  A quick walk round the back solved the problem though the Mrs had to wait !!!!!!!!

 

Boring down here - no scenery, that ended at Chesterfield !!!

 

Brit15

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Probably just as old

 

You forget that the Victorians had no qualms in clearing away huge swathes of woodland and committed far grater ecological crimes that HS2 is doing. Later still the builders of the UKs initial motorway network generally had a similar 'couldn't care less' attitude when planning the network

 

Indeed the ecological damage done to the countryside the construction of the WCML created would have meant that the things simply would not have been permitted to be built in the first place had we applied todays standards to it.

Worth pointing out these self imposed standards are exactly that.

whilst we can claim the moral high ground, the further you venture from our shores the more “victorian” those standard become.

China simply wouldnt care by their standards and HS2 would have been open in a few years, and much wider developed nationwide at a fraction of the cost.. without regard to human or environmental cost.

 

we cannot hug trees in Beijing, but their goods can swamp ours cheaply as a result of our standard.

 

The question therefore is in a globally competitive world, what are we doing to “level” that playing field without inflating our way to poverty as opposed to hobbling ourselves out of business ?

 

one thing is for sure.. the developing world isnt going to abide by our standards, they want our lifestyle that some here want us to give up… and should we “go back to nature” they will seize and act upon that weakness.

 

 

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by adb968008

[lmsforever]

The last post sums up this country and it is totally a mess all we can build is housing estates that just add to towns and no room made for cars or people  , earlier a comment was made about how it seems as though people above do not want us to travel .they do not want us to move about.HS2 could have been a great project but all it will be is just another rail line and dont look to any incoming government they will have pet projects that please supporters and donors.They will ignore people who need help and the economy as they always do  and one group in line for bad treatment are pensioners as we are considered a nuisance.  The line to Risboro from Aylesbury should be open by the end of the month and I am going to take ride to see what has happenned at least it will be cheerful news.                   

[corneliuslundie]

No, the woodland designated as "ancient" on the maps was not 300 years old, just there as woodland when the map was created. The idea that all "ancient" woodland are made up of 300 year old trees is a myth. But is believed by many "tree huggers".

And I have read Oliver Rackham, also Dudley Stamp, H L Edlin and others on the subject of trees. Plus a very interesting more recent book on how trees communicate with each other.

Re the construction of the early railways, what environmental damage is now obvious in terms of lost woodland etc? (A genuine question, I do not know).

But back to HS2, provided that they do not sell of the land they have acquired, it should be possible to extend it later at least to London, Trent and a sensible connection to the WCML further north. At a much greater cost than it would have been of course, but that is the British way.

But probably not in my lifetime.

Jonathan