Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Royal42]

I would be quite happy with that, they must surely be the experts on this by now.

[Pete the Elaner]

Just now, Royal42 said:

I would be quite happy with that, they must surely be the experts on this by now.

I would not be so sure.

China refuses to publish their infection/death figures so I would not assume anything.

[Royal42]

Again, they have been involved since the very start of this, thereby their labs should be way ahead of the rest of the world.   We need to differentiate what the medical people are achieiving, from the politburu restrictions.

 

Mike

Edited April 10, 2021 by Royal42

[MJI]

There has been another thing in ladies fashion recently.  I think it was Click. Dresses and tops with sleeves but open shoulders.

 

I commented to my wife vaccination dresses.  She said it was the current style.

 

We both call them vaccine style.

[hayfield]

4 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

I would not be so sure.

China refuses to publish their infection/death figures so I would not assume anything.

 

1 minute ago, Royal42 said:

Again, they have been involved since the very start of this, thereby their labs should be way ahead of the rest of the world.   We need to differentiate what the medical people are achieiving, from the politburu restrictions.

 

Mike

 

I think it is quite interesting what the WHO have started to communicate about their visit to China since their return. But the rest of the world has had time to get up to speed with the virus itself and its mutations. As for death rates, there seems to be no common standards in what is called the free world, let alone closed societies

 

Moving onwards I think the combined research and monitoring from countries and companies who are free of political interference will probably be the best source of beating this virus  

[durham light infantry]

2 hours ago, alastairq said:

Oh the irony.......

Just received my own personal lateral flow test kit.

I noticed immediately it is liberally labelled ''Made in China''....

 

All our social care PPE is made in China, from aprons to visors. The irony is not lost on us, just feels like a slap across the face after the last 13 months.

 

[hayfield]

Adding Thursday and Friday's vaccination figures together nearly 1 million people received their second dose whilst still vaccinating 200,000 for the first time

 

Analysis of recent returns show there is a real correlation between the vaccine program and the declining death rates, it apparently shows infections are levelling off , which was the case two or three weeks ago, since then infections have began falling again, but there was no ley up with the decline of hospitalisation and deaths. The latest 7 day average (2nd April) is the lowest since the 19th of September. Hospital admissions are also back down to mid September levels. Infections are very difficult to compare as we are testing far more people and these lateral flow tests are less accurate, but again the figures are much the same as at the start of September.

 

Reports today from France is they are both ramping up their vaccinations and more importantly vaccine hesitancy is reducing. Also they have extended the period between injections to 6 weeks. Though I still think all thoughts of foreign travel should be postponed till next year 

 

Whilst we all should be extra careful over the coming months, we must take some comfort that lockdowns will both ease and life will get back to a near normal in a few weeks

[jonny777]

My thoughts on easing of restrictions, is that avid travellers should look at the stats and keep away from areas which have high infection rates. 

 

These are the areas with rates continuing above 75 per 100k. 

 

Clackmannanshire, Barnsley, Wakefield, Luton, Hull, Leicester, Doncaster, West Lothian, Leeds, Bradford, Renfrewshire, and Sheffield. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?_ga=2.146590588.97899327.1618130874-1772697453.1618130874

[Nick C]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56706798

 

What is wrong with people? 

[hayfield]

18 minutes ago, Nick C said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56706798

 

What is wrong with people? 

 

 

Nick

 

Sadly nothing to do with covid, its society. I remember one customer starting a fight at the checkouts over having to pay 5p for a plastic bag, the 5p's were being donated to charity at that time.

Rightly he was banned from the Queens favorite supermarket for life. Not just middle age or youngsters, one 70 year old ran over another 70+ during a parking dispute (neither was hurt other than their pride). It took a 17 year old to separate them !!!

 

However staff and management now take abuse of staff or customers seriously, offenders are politely but firmly asked to leave and requested to shop elsewhere. Sadly not all supermarkets are as firm

Edited April 11, 2021 by hayfield

[Fenman]

1 hour ago, jonny777 said:

...

Clackmannanshire, Barnsley, Wakefield, Luton, Hull, Leicester, Doncaster, West Lothian, Leeds, Bradford, Renfrewshire, and Sheffield. 

...

 

 

I can understand it in the densely populated urban areas but ...  wee Clackmannanshire?

 

Paul 

 

[rocor]

17 hours ago, MJI said:

There has been another thing in ladies fashion recently.  I think it was Click. Dresses and tops with sleeves but open shoulders.

 

I commented to my wife vaccination dresses.  She said it was the current style.

 

We both call them vaccine style.

 

The 1950s just called, with a complaint regarding plagiarism of its ladies fashions.  

[Oldddudders]

12 minutes ago, Fenman said:

 

 

I can understand it in the densely populated urban areas but ...  wee Clackmannanshire?

 

Paul 

 

I suspect in some rural areas people feel safe - no strangers to import the dreaded virus. Here I have heard of 4 elderly couples who regularly dined and entertained together - probably a card-school - but all 8 caught Covid. Allegedly 7 were last heard of on trolleys with ventilation in the corridors of the overcrowded hospital, while the 8th couldn't stand the thought and hanged himself. 

[alastairq]

On that vein...Bridlington has seen a spike over the past week, with currently 39 cases....a rise of 34 in a week!  This is an infection rate of 478.8 per 100,000. One of the highest currently in the country.

 

From local media

 

Quote

*** COVID-19 NEWS ***

BRIDLINGTON SEES HUGE SPIKE IN COVID CASES

THE SEASIDE TOWN HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST RATES IN THE COUNTRY

Despite cases of COVID-19 falling across the UK, Bridlington has seen a spike in the last seven days, with further relaxing of lockdown restrictions on the way at the start of next week.

The Bridlington West area of the town currently has 39 cases, a rise of 34 in a week - the equivalent of a 680% increase.

This gives Bridlington West an infection rate of 478.8 per 100,000 - one of the highest in the UK.

It's as yet unclear what the cause of the spike is, however it comes after the 'stay local' message ended on 29th March.

In Bridlington Hilderthorpe, cases are also on the rise, with five more in the last seven days.

In the East Riding, there are currently 126 active cases of the virus, a drop of 43 in the last week, giving the area an infection rate of 36.9 per 100,000.

 

On that note, I have, once more, tested negative.   Guess I'll keep away from the seaside?  Even if it is only 15 miles up the road? [I avoid using the main roads as much as I can too.....just in case someone passing has their window open?           }

[Reorte]

My guess about very sudden local spikes is that they'll involve a specific location or group (which might involve people breaking the rules but may not; we've seen a few cases of areas suddenly showing up high due to outbreaks in prisons as an example).

 

[Hobby]

Or in Bridlington's case a holiday camp...

 

Though there might not be any difference...

[Pete the Elaner]

6 hours ago, jonny777 said:

My thoughts on easing of restrictions, is that avid travellers should look at the stats and keep away from areas which have high infection rates. 

 

These are the areas with rates continuing above 75 per 100k. 

 

Clackmannanshire, Barnsley, Wakefield, Luton, Hull, Leicester, Doncaster, West Lothian, Leeds, Bradford, Renfrewshire, and Sheffield. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?_ga=2.146590588.97899327.1618130874-1772697453.1618130874

We need to be cautious. Both new cases & deaths are levelling off right now instead of continuing to fall.

Hopefully this is a blip in the recent trend of decline, but I don't think hoping is good enough.

I am sure many will rush out to shops, hairdressers etc. because "we are allowed to" rather than think about whether it is really a good idea to do so.

Many cleared off on holiday, both abroad or to other parts of the UK last year "because we could". I thought at the time it was a terrible idea & the idea of a 'staycation' to me should be staying at home, not going to the south coast for a few days. The more vigilant we can be now, the quicker we will be able to get out of this mess.

[john new]

2 hours ago, Reorte said:

My guess about very sudden local spikes is that they'll involve a specific location or group (which might involve people breaking the rules but may not; we've seen a few cases of areas suddenly showing up high due to outbreaks in prisons as an example).

 

The local prisons are keeping our rate high, both with staff and inmates.

[TheQ]

6 hours ago, Fenman said:

 

 

I can understand it in the densely populated urban areas but ...  wee Clackmannanshire?

 

Paul 

 

Clackmannanshire borders Stirling and includes Alloa.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Pete the Elaner said:

We need to be cautious. Both new cases & deaths are levelling off right now instead of continuing to fall.

Hopefully this is a blip in the recent trend of decline, but I don't think hoping is good enough.

I am sure many will rush out to shops, hairdressers etc. because "we are allowed to" rather than think about whether it is really a good idea to do so.

Many cleared off on holiday, both abroad or to other parts of the UK last year "because we could". I thought at the time it was a terrible idea & the idea of a 'staycation' to me should be staying at home, not going to the south coast for a few days. The more vigilant we can be now, the quicker we will be able to get out of this mess.

 

This was the case but look at the figures, tis past 10 days or more infections are declining again, hospitalisation and deaths until today have continued to decline. The Easter weekend has skewed the death rates as both Wales and Northern Ireland did not return any deaths over the holiday period. The 7 day rolling figures are a week behind and may well be date of death rather than date reported (as the figures do change between those reported and the 7 day rolling) also the interactive maps seemingly are a few days behind the daily figures.

 

The first big test was the children going back to school, there was a bit of a blip, but testing seems to be quite effective

 

As for greater mixing, yes you are right, it is thought that the virus will spread a bit, but its from quite a low ebb in most places, whilst the percentages may be highish, its from a very low starting point

 

If you look at the interactive infection maps, in the western, southern, eastern areas a lot of yellow is showing through, as is most of Wales and a good part of Wales, some Midlands and Northern areas are lagging a bit behind, these are areas where obviously less social distancing occurs, perhaps the relaxing of the rules will have a lesser effect in these areas, simply because larger numbers are not complying anyway

 

You are correct in that the more care we take, the less likely we are to catch anything

 

My take on holidays is that the shear cost of tests and isolation if required will put many off, the costs of tests for one person is a few hundred £'s, a family of four is looking at about an extra £1500 according to one of the experts, but many of sane mind will think twice to a country suffering high rates of infection anyway

[Fenman]

1 hour ago, TheQ said:

Clackmannanshire borders Stirling and includes Alloa.

And neither of them are large, densely-populated, urban areas (Stirling district stretches up to Crianlarich and Tyndrum, and across to Loch Lomond)...

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Pete the Elaner said:

We need to be cautious. Both new cases & deaths are levelling off right now instead of continuing to fall.

 

New cases have definitely gone back in to decline but deaths seem to have stalled in the last week, and of course that's the one that really matters (doesn't matter how many catch it if no-one dies). I can't see an obvious explanation, if it was a result of the temporary stalling of declining cases (and the timing's right) I'd have expected to have already seen it appear in hospitilisations, but there's no sign there.

[Oldddudders]

9 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

New cases have definitely gone back in to decline but deaths seem to have stalled in the last week, and of course that's the one that really matters (doesn't matter how many catch it if no-one dies). I can't see an obvious explanation, if it was a result of the temporary stalling of declining cases (and the timing's right) I'd have expected to have already seen it appear in hospitilisations, but there's no sign there.

Do we not expect deaths to lag cases by about three weeks? I think cases were plateaued around that time, so deaths should be now. The trend will follow again. Hospital admissions continue to drop nicely. 

[Reorte]

2 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

Do we not expect deaths to lag cases by about three weeks? I think cases were plateaued around that time, so deaths should be now. The trend will follow again. Hospital admissions continue to drop nicely. 

Yes, the timing fits, but what I find odd is that there hasn't been a plateau in hospitilisations, which I'd have expected to occur after cases but before deaths.

Edited April 11, 2021 by Reorte

[Oldddudders]

1 minute ago, Reorte said:

Yes, the timing fits, but what I find odd is that there hasn't been a plateau in hospitilisations, which I'd have expected to occur after cases but before deaths.

Perhaps as the vaccination programme proceeds, those now testing positive are on average younger, where we believe the symptoms may sometimes be less severe, thus avoiding hospitalisation?