Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[hayfield]

On 20/06/2021 at 11:28, Oldddudders said:

I see St Ives, scene of the G7 junket, has a 2,900% (yes) increase in cases, up from 2 to 60. 862.6 cases per 100k population. against a national average of 80.9. 

 

From the BBC today, seemingly from perhaps easing lockdown rules earlier in the month rather than the G7, 

 

"The rise in coronavirus cases in Cornwall was from before the G7 summit, the director of public health for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly has said."

 

"proactive approach did identify cases, both in the community and particularly a university which had an outbreak early on, before the G7.

"Quite a number of those cases can be tracked back to that group and then through into some of hospitality venues."

 

Perhaps worse to come, as many were holidaying over the half term, which was also happening at the same time as the G7 meetings. I guess we must expect similar situations over the coming months.

 

I have my own thoughts about wearing masks whilst in restaurant's etc, but more than happy to comply with the rules if only to reassure those who are more cautious. 

 

  

 

 

[alastairq]

39 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I have my own thoughts about wearing masks whilst in restaurant's etc, but more than happy to comply with the rules if only to reassure those who are more cautious. 

 My Dearest Daughter  [No,  I don't have a slightly cheaper daughter!]....has to wear a mask at work...she finds it feels a pretty unhealthy occupation, mask-wearing, over a number of hours....and often has to go outside to remove it, just to breathe some 'fresh air'......I thinks its all down to the moisture in ones breath...which in itself, being re-breathed, cannot be 'healthy', I would have thought?

Personally I wear as mask when I'm required to do so, simply because   ''you don't want to be catching what I've got!!''

[Insert a suitably nasty transmissible disease that makes your nose fall off, etc?]

 

As for  a 'reduction' in cases of flu, or colds, sore throats, etc?

Surely a lot of that has to be down to lower levels of human contact, and better public health processes?

I do know that, since I have retired from work [the workplace, that is], some nearly 5 years ago now, and no longer have closed, confined contacts with a multitude of bug-breathing individuals, I haven't actually had a cold!  Never mind flu, or sore throats.

 

I'm sure flu cases, cold cases, and other nasty, commonplace illnesses will rise inexorably over the next months, purely because folk will be intent on rushing out and huggin' & kissin' each others ears, etc....and be needing to congregate in huge numbers, blowin' all sorts at each other....All of which could be avoided if we but learnt the basic lessons from the past year?  Nowt to do with covid, everything to do with reducing contact with all those masses?

 

But of course, there are not many in our population who truly care, really?

 

Now my new test kit has arrived, i suppose I ought to go and wibble?

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

 

From the BBC today, seemingly from perhaps easing lockdown rules earlier in the month rather than the G7, 

 

"The rise in coronavirus cases in Cornwall was from before the G7 summit, the director of public health for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly has said."

 

"proactive approach did identify cases, both in the community and particularly a university which had an outbreak early on, before the G7.

"Quite a number of those cases can be tracked back to that group and then through into some of hospitality venues."

 

Perhaps worse to come, as many were holidaying over the half term, which was also happening at the same time as the G7 meetings. I guess we must expect similar situations over the coming months.

 

I have my own thoughts about wearing masks whilst in restaurant's etc, but more than happy to comply with the rules if only to reassure those who are more cautious. 

 

  

 

 

It is not so strange that the two major areas are StIves and Falmouth……one was full of visiting protesters etc and the other full of 6500 police officers (5000 of which were from out of county) being billeted on board a ship…..of whom they were allowed to go out when off duty and use the town’s facilities……how very odd, if it were just half term holidaymakers I am sure the spike would have been not so soon.

 

Anyway it’s here now….buckle down again.

[rocor]

15 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Hmm...

Doesn't set a good precedent for the Olympics.

 

I saw an member of the Ugandan team arrived positive, he was quarantined, but the rest of cohort were sent on their merry way...

 

I dont think the Olympics offer a global risk, given how tightly managed the numbers will be, but theres considerable potential for spreading the joy of the games around the olympic family... I wonder how long before we will see an athlete competing with covid on TV.

 

My money would be on Covid for the gold.

[D9020 Nimbus]

I suspect the fact that Israel is doing a lot better than Bolton is not unconnected to the fact that the Pfizer vaccine used in Israel is 93% effective against the Delta variant whilst the AZ vaccine used for the majority of UK vaccinations is only 60% effective (three weeks after second dose; source: BBC). Quite a difference!

[-missy-]

12 minutes ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

I suspect the fact that Israel is doing a lot better than Bolton is not unconnected to the fact that the Pfizer vaccine used in Israel is 93% effective against the Delta variant whilst the AZ vaccine used for the majority of UK vaccinations is only 60% effective (three weeks after second dose; source: BBC). Quite a difference!

 

Is that the case though?

 

I posted previously that the PHE were quoting 90% protection from both AZ and Pfizer vaccines (after 2 doses).

 

Missy.

[Reorte]

There seems to be a lot of arguments over exactly what you're measuring effectiveness against - showing any symptoms, or ending up in hospital. The AZ 60% measure appears to be against symptoms, but it's significantly higher when measured against requiring hospital admission (I've found 96% and 94% for Pfizer and AZ respectively, after two doses). There's not enough data to measure against deaths.

 

Edited June 22, 2021 by Reorte

[monkeysarefun]

Meanwhile in  news from us colonies, the Bondi outbreak that started when  a driver who ferries international flight crew caught it and spread it to others by simply walking through Westfield's in Bondi Junction is still bubbling along. There were 10 new cases today but all but one were in people who were among the several thousand  people who were instantly put  into self isolation when the outbreak commenced and was tracked and traced so so far it isn't going anywhere fast.

 

As usual Sth Australia is shutting up shop to us lepers, other states will no doubt follow, and as usual  the Murdoch  press  when it's not  telling us how poorly our vaccination rollout is going because no one is going and getting vaccinated is filled with stories about how many people are carking it from blood clots when they go and get vaccinated.

Edited June 22, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[PatB]

47 minutes ago, monkeysarefun said:

Meanwhile in  news from us colonies, the Bondi outbreak that started when  a driver who ferries international flight crew caught it and spread it to others by simply walking through Westfield's in Bondi Junction is still bubbling along. There were 10 new cases today but all but one were in people who were among the several thousand  people who were instantly put  into self isolation when the outbreak commenced and was tracked and traced so so far it isn't going anywhere fast.

 

As usual Sth Australia is shutting up shop to us lepers, other states will no doubt follow, and as usual  the Murdoch  press  when it's not  telling us how poorly our vaccination rollout is going because no one is going and getting vaccinated is filled with stories about how many people are carking it from blood clots when they go and get vaccinated.

The Australian rollout has definitely been hampered by clots, and not all of them from the AZ vaccine. 

[Hobby]

They never were all from that vaccine, the Pfizer vaccine also causes them but they aren't the whipping boy so got away with it. 

[Oldddudders]

2 hours ago, Reorte said:

There's not enough data to measure against deaths.

From which I infer there have been too few deaths to provide data. Result!

[boxbrownie]

4 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

I suspect the fact that Israel is doing a lot better than Bolton is not unconnected to the fact that the Pfizer vaccine used in Israel is 93% effective against the Delta variant whilst the AZ vaccine used for the majority of UK vaccinations is only 60% effective (three weeks after second dose; source: BBC). Quite a difference!

It’s more likely that the persuasion for more people to accept the vaccination was probably more….shall we say……”controlled” than in the U.K. 

[-missy-]

Interesting screen grab from the WHR webcam at Porthmadog this morning.

 

 

I guess they are all outside at least.

 

Missy.

[Reorte]

Photos like that one can often make people look like they're more crowded together than they are. A side-on view of the platform would probably give a very different impression of how much crowding there is.

[AY Mod]

4 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Photos like that one can often make people look like they're more crowded together than they are. A side-on view of the platform would probably give a very different impression of how much crowding there is.

 

Entirely true but if the station is restricted to passengers (probably not) that's quite a busy service. I haven't seen anything on their website about distancing or compartmentalisation.

[boxbrownie]

1 minute ago, AY Mod said:

 

Entirely true but if the station is restricted to passengers (probably not) that's quite a busy service. I haven't seen anything on their website about distancing or compartmentalisation.

Indeed, I’d be more worried about being in the train than standing on that station……in fact I’d give it a miss and just watch it.

[2mm Andy]

1 hour ago, boxbrownie said:

Indeed, I’d be more worried about being in the train than standing on that station……in fact I’d give it a miss and just watch it.

and hopefully donate to their Covid appeal;

 

https://www.festrail.co.uk/news_and_events_item/covid-19-appeal/

 

Andy

[2mm Andy]

1 hour ago, AY Mod said:

 

Entirely true but if the station is restricted to passengers (probably not) that's quite a busy service. I haven't seen anything on their website about distancing or compartmentalisation.

 

It's hidden away on their website a bit ( https://www.festrail.co.uk/faq/ ) but Festiniog trains have compartments, so no masks required once you're on the trains. Welsh Highland trains have saloon carriages, so masks required on board, and perspex dividers between seating bays. 

 

Andy

[boxbrownie]

13 hours ago, 2mm Andy said:

and hopefully donate to their Covid appeal;

 

https://www.festrail.co.uk/news_and_events_item/covid-19-appeal/

 

Andy

If I knew about it, yes I probably would…..I’m nice like that.

[boxbrownie]

Well the donation page doesn’t like false stops after a sentence but other than that it was painless, thanks for the heads up.

[Ben B]

16 hours ago, -missy- said:

Interesting screen grab from the WHR webcam at Porthmadog this morning.

 

 

I guess they are all outside at least.

 

Missy.

 

We used the WHR during the Half-Term for the Porthmadog-Beddgelert run.  Passengers were spaced out, the railway were controlling the numbers of people in the shop etc, everyone was being very responsible, and whilst it could get crowded on the platforms when the trains emptied, people were generally being sensible and trying to leave gaps.  On board the WHR train, people were spread out, and masked too.  The only problem we had was an American-accented woman who didn't want to wear a mask, and insisted on closing the windows, which were immediately re-opened by a member of the train crew, to increase the ventilation.  I'd say the Ffestiniog and Welsh Highland are doing a pretty good job of coping in the circumstances.  I think, as others have pointed out, there's a fore-shortening effect in the screenshot from the webcam above, and note there are people masked-up there on the platform.  

 

I don't want to sound blasé about these things (believe me I'm not- I'm home-schooling again this week as Middle Child's bubble has been sent home, two positive cases in her class yesterday), but the preserved lines I've visited in the last month (Ffestiniog/WHR, KWVR) seem to be operating responsibly, and in general the passengers are doing likewise.  Certainly more responsibly than many people in my local co-op or the school playground do when it comes to mask-wearing and social distancing.  I hope personally that its a sign that people are learning to live with the virus, as it isn't going to magically go away even with the vaccines, and the only alternative is hiding indoors behind the shutters for the rest of our lives...

[Phil Traxson]

16 hours ago, Reorte said:

Photos like that one can often make people look like they're more crowded together than they are. A side-on view of the platform would probably give a very different impression of how much crowding there is.

Quite true, to give more idea each of the coaches in that train are 30+ feet long and the loco considerably longer!! Work it out for yourself.

[adb968008]

According to Worldometer..

 

UK’s 16k cases is higher than the US’s 13k cases.

 

Whilst some people say dont compare (well they would wouldn't they), its hard not to look and think wouldnt it be nice to be there or them as their cases dwindle.. Poland started their big wave just like us in October and nearly matched us case for case until Easter, when it started to slide to just 160 cases yesterday, you don't have to be an island to manage it.

 

Whilst the new policy of let the kids catch it we dont care, seems somewhat carefree, other countries looking at our numbers cant help but wonder what we are doing.

 

I wonder how high is too high, last time it was 15k we were locking down, if the hospital rate is 5% vs 10% last time*, then maybe 30-40k cases a day this time with a peak of 120k cases a day ?

 

* Nicola Sturgeons words

 

Edited June 24, 2021 by adb968008

[Hobby]

The delta variant reached the USA much later than the UK and cases are doubling over there every two weeks so watch this space.

 

What's most important is vaccine rollout. Hospital cases have been much lower than in previous months despite the infection levels because of the vaccine take up which matters more.

 

Re Poland, the Indian population is very small so they have been able to contain the variant easier...

 

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/low-infection-rate-let-poland-better-investigate-indian-variant---health-min-22509

 

Re how high is too high, I don't know, but I'd rather not start trying to guess either, I don't have the knowledge or statistics to make such a judgement so best to stay out of the guesswork. Unfortunately some people do think they are qualified and scaremonger (not aimed at you, ADB!).

Edited June 24, 2021 by Hobby

[hayfield]

Certainly the pandemic is in interesting times, being away for a few days last week I missed the jump in local reported deaths and the reason why until Monday (the fact that there was no more deaths just a rebalancing of numbers) . Whilst there has been a modest increase of infections in the South East, its the North that is feeling the pressure. One tv report clearly stating its now young males who are fuelling this spike, presumably from mixing with each other indoors. 

 

For some reason both health officials and politicians seem not too be bothered, in some places hospital admissions are up, but mainly in the under 65's, certainly the deaths whilst now back over a 100 a week, seen relatively stable. Given the stance that by mid July we will be free of covid regulations I can only think they assume that with the vaccination program coupled with natural immunity (from being infected) herd immunity will be achieved by then.

 

Next up in the UK is the race for the flu jab and the top up covid dose. However how is Europe going to cope with the Delta variant, reports are its in circulation there, but there is far less testing and genome sequencing going on, will their vaccine rollout be enough to keep it at bay ?